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I disagree.

The point of 'it's exponential, bro' is to scare people. Exponential = lily pads covering the pond. That doesn't happen. It's a logistic pattern:

Separately, while plotting in log space ensures that the slope of each curve is comparable, it doesn't correct for size differences...or, more to the point, differences in timeline. That was my point about 10 cases being a bad equalizing 'starting point' for the plotting. If you wanted to make it 10 cases per 1MM citizens, then we're talking.

Finally, thank you for your commentary on my knowledge base. I bow to your superiority, my liege: only those members of the self-designated Bourgeois possessing a firm grounding in calculus can discern rate of change from a level for us prols. I'm sorry that the concept of normalizing for population differentials and putting metrics on a common footing put power into the hands of little people. It should be left only to experts, just like guns. That way, the smart people like you can control the narrative. I'm sorry. Maybe I'll endeavor to get your approval before I post.

It's a logistic pattern....If you wanted to make it 10 cases per 1MM citizens, then we're talking.

The logistics curve is an exponential model modified to account for the fact that the exponential has to roll over once you start to saturate or consume the population that is relied upon to sustain the exponential.

Thus the usual predator prey problem - which is the original source of the logistics equation. A breading pair of lion in a large population of wildebees leads to an exponential increase in the population of lions until they exhaust the population of the young,old and diseased wildebees and then the lions start to die off because of lack of food.

From the wildebees point of view, however, the exponential increase of lion was something to be avoided because by the time the logistics modification to this comes into effect you are dead.

We are a long long long long way in terms of generations of doubling from the Wuahan flu saturating the population.

PS, I agree that this should be indexed to cases per million of population, although the difference for countries between 10 Million and 200 Million is just a few days of exponential increase. Still, I agree that if you are looking for saturation effects you have to look at the percentage of saturation in the target population.