Posted on 03/20/2020 7:28:07 PM PDT by NRx
New York State’s long-feared surge of coronavirus cases has begun, thrusting the medical system toward a crisis point.
In a startlingly quick ascent, officials reported on Friday that the state was closing in on 8,000 positive tests, about half the cases in the country. The number was 10 times higher than what was reported earlier in the week.
In the Bronx, doctors at Lincoln Medical and Mental Health Center say they have only a few remaining ventilators for patients who need them to breathe. In Brooklyn, doctors at Kings County Hospital Center say they are so low on supplies that they are reusing masks for up to a week, slathering them with hand sanitizer between shifts.
Some of the jump in New York’s cases can be traced to significantly increased testing, which the state began this week. But the escalation, and the response, could offer other states a glimpse of what might be in store if the virus continues to spread. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Friday urged residents to stay indoors and ordered nonessential businesses to keep workers home.
State officials have projected that the number of coronavirus cases in New York will peak in early May. Both the governor and Mayor Bill de Blasio have used wartime metaphors and analogies to paint a grim picture of what to expect. Officials have said the state would need to double its available hospital beds to 100,000 and could be short as many as 25,000 ventilators.
As it prepares for the worst-case projections, the state is asking retired health care workers to volunteer to help. The city is considering trying to turn the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in Manhattan into a makeshift hospital.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
More like western civilization is comitting suicide.
what about the 6 at Lenox hill that received chloroquine and recovered?
If they test negative, we don’t need to worry about them. Testing negative doesn’t mean you are immune to the virus
In the US, it is 1.3% (confirmed vs dead). Italy is over 8.5%
Look again at these stats and compare total recovered cases vs deaths...there is a separate chart for “Resolved Cases vs Deaths” (resolved is the total number of covi19 patients officially recovered Plus the dead) the Death rates world wide vs Resolved cases are 11 per cent dead vs 89 percent recovered. take out China’s fake numbers and you have 72 percent recovered vs 28 percent dead.
Reality is crashing the gang war between Dems aand Pubbies and even Pelosi is subdued. She’s a San Fran gal and 80 years old with hot fresh challengers nipping at her heels in Covid hot Frisco. It wouldn’t surprise me to see her making speeches at home in a Space suit!
If anything the economy will be stronger after this virus is gone.
The economy will be stronger with 30% unemployment? Not a chance.
No...so far it is 147 recovered vs 275 dead or 62 percent(total resolved cases) IN THE USA. We have 18390 active cases without resolution yet with 62 of those in critical shape. Increased testing is distorting our numbers but as we watch increased hospitalizations for sudden onset respiratory distress suddenly uptick beyond what is way above normal even for flu this time of year, that will help clear away the fog.
Look at these numbers and look for the charts for resolved cases vs deaths as percentages...the death rate in the world is running 11 percent compared with 89 percent recovered. If you manually take out the fake numbers for China and the death rate climbs to 28 percent vs 72 percent recovered else where. Near 30 percent. If one surmises that this plague should ever hit nearly 8 billion of all persons on the earth with 30 percent rate holding...then you have a Revelation’s style plague of 1/3 being wiped out.
I don’t think this one will ever get to 1 billion but even 100 million with a 4 percent final mortality rate is still 4 million people with exhausted health resources all over the world as many survivors will have lingering issues and shortened lifespans because of their illness. Some nations will weather it better than others but Italy looks to be a mess.
http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/
We have 19,622 confirmed cases. Of those confirmed cases, 261 have died. IOW 1.3% of the confirmed cases have died. That’s what we KNOW. Last Sunday, it was 2%.
While you have my respect as a fellow physician why are you buying into the craziness. Apply your knowledge in epidemiology and healthy. Ask the questions you were trained to ask. You will see very different story
America is not Italy in practice nor demographics. Why is Italy so bad? Are you aware that despite the lockdown tobacco shops are open and operating. Lombardi region. Very elderly, endemic smoking. It makes sense. Why is new York running 0.5 death rate. Comparatively it’s the lowest death rate of any population and a similar time in the curve.
Put aside the emotion and check the science.
No way to tell ethnicity based on testing reports. Queens numbers are high and Flushing is heavily Asian. Areas of Nassau County with highest numbers are not Asian. There are reports in the Times of hotspots in Hasidic areas in Brooklyn. NYPD has had to break up public gatherings and celebrations.
And yet the death rate is an amazing 0.5%, and going down each day. This is a Fearper article plain and simple
The increase in reported infections that makes NY the epicenter corresponds to the 32,427 tests given, with an increase of +29,124 since last week, and showing 7,102 positives, out of a total pop. of 19,453,561.
In comparison, California has done 11,487 tests, with an increase since last week 10,319, showing 1,063 positives, while the state has a total pop. of 39,512,223. (https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/)
Charts should show the % of positives in relation to the # tested per state and the ratio.
And if this is telling as regard medical personal, then NY ranks #3 in most active physicians per 100,000 population in 2018, while CA is 19. Also, at 1.8 staffed hospital beds per thousand people, CA ranks 5th from the bottom, while New York has 2.7 hospital beds per 1,000 people.
So what we consistently see is an absolute maximum of 20% positive tests. In other regions globally it’s as low as 5%. So the insanity of say the governor of California saying that 55% of California is infected next week just does not hold any water.
World wide there are only 250,000 cases
Therefore this is highly contagious and there are millions of undetected cases. So this virus is just not that big of a deal
OR
The virus simply does not spread all that efficiently and only penetrates a very small part of any population
There literally is no door #3. And both of these postulates would be excellent news. It would literally turn on its head the insanity of all of this virtual martial law and allow us to get back to normal.
As US testing increases, the number of cases will increase driving the mortality rate down. Dr. Birx now estimates the US mortality rate to be .7%.
But not resolved so you can’t figure a running death rate on 19000 cases, only against who has recovered(or officially 147). The 19000 cases are still ongoing....some of those will still die and that number of confirmed cases has quintupled in a week. We expect a good number of that will end up hospitalized.
That is the sticky nub....if confirmed numbers quintuple again then the numbers of those needing to be hospitalized will also go up. I expect that the mortality rate will drop...but worldwide the numbers so far show 11 percent mortality against 89 percent recovering and that number has been sticking for a while.
Should we end up with 1 million total cases with the 1.3 percent dying(using your figures) that will be at least 13000 folks passing away but....20 percent(or 20000) will need hospitalization to keep them from dying based on other parts of the world and half of those will need ICU beds. We don’t have the beds to accommodate them and accommodate the “regular” folks you already find in the ICU’s.... you know...strokes MI’s, major trauma and shootings!!?
So the health services with admissions on the upswing will be swamped and choices will start to be made as to who to save and who won’t be saved based on age and underlying conditions....so your precious 1.3 percent you are clinging to may rise to 4, 5, 6 percent death rates as care gets rationed (as they are doing in Italy) with many others, if they survive, left with lingering diminished lung capacities and in need of chronic medical monitoring.
I’m hoping that a big bulk of persons have already had covid before the testing started in earnest so that the numbers stay well under 1 million. I hope that the apparent rise in cases is just like the proverbial flashlight shined on the garage floor showing one that the cockroaches were already there but the insecticide has been applied. Hopefully we will see decreasing numbers and not increasing numbers because eggs are hatching and a given number of roaches seem to be resistant to the insecticide.
That is why we can’t accept both the 1.3 percent or the 62 percent mortality rates right now....not enough resolved cases to compare the deaths to, and the new numbers only tell us who was infected 7-14 days ago. How many of these folks get really critical and enter hospital we won’t know for a while; how many more cases get confirmed but with a huge spike of critical hospital admissions associated with those(eggs to hatch) we won’t know for another week or so.
People like to speak of happy SK but their death to resolved cases are 4 percent mortality with some 4300 cases still unresolved. They seem to have slowed their numbers with very good mitigation efforts though some new cases have popped up in the last few days. Can the US cap off at say 100000 cases? Remains to be seen.
Here is what we do know. There is no 11% mortality rate world-wide. The # of confirmed is 273,619. The # of deaths is 11,358. That equals 4%. This is based on data we have at the moment but the 4% rate has held pretty steady this week. I doubt China is giving good #’s but I have no way to quantify that.
The 1.3% US # is not steady. It has been declining all week and I suspect it will continue to decline. We will have more cases but the death rate will decrease as we improve treatment. I suspect that by this time next week, we’ll have some real breakthroughs.
Bureaucrats always think that they are more important than they are.
Chloroquine is an FDA approved drug whose side effects are well documented. Doctor’s don’t need permission from the FDA to use it “off label” to treat coronavirus. The FDA is just sticking its nose in to try to gum things up and slow things down with red tape while people die.
What is needed is a good estimated death rate per estimated infection rate, and the age and condition of fatalities. And the And what the long term effects will be relative to quarantines versus sunshine and fresh air, even for those with Covid-19. And the long term effects of the safe mode/ shutdown the economy and increase welfare recourse.
Meaning if the mortality rate is very low except for seniors and or those with serious medical conditions then warrant is lacking for operating in safe mode, and likely more harm will result from that rather than getting back to normality, and letting the virus run its course, while safe guarding seniors and or those with serious medical conditions.
Nowhere does Dr. Hahn even suggest that doctors could not prescribe hydroxychloroquine or azithromycin. He does try to weave the FDA into the mix, since if it turns out that the simple combination of two existing drugs (one OTC in most of the world) is effective against COVID-19 then their role in the whole matter is instantly reduced.
I watched Dr. Hahn make those comments, and the transcript seems accurate. Once again we're seeing anti-Trump media players create propaganda to make it appear that Trump's statements are incorrect.
In reality, President Trump's statements about the likely effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a COVID-19 therapy for patients who are able to take those drugs is strongly supported by multiple published studies.
In China, researchers had sufficient clinical test data at the end of February to recommend that the drug combination be added to the Chinese list of standard treatments for the illness.
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