Posted on 03/15/2020 9:49:28 AM PDT by Mariner
The world leader in pharmaceutical research and one of the top rated healthcare systems on the planet, now has the 2nd highest infection rate per capita in the world. Switzerland will be a major indicator of how the very best healthcare systems in the world will handle COVID-19. I seriously doubt we will do as well as Switzerland, but I hope we can at least benefit from their suffering.
In your post the 2nd-hand account said “Seattle has 12 [ECMO] machines, which is less than what’s needed.”
Farther down in the twitter feed (I just signed on to twitter so not sure what I’m doing!) there was a response that said Evergreen Hospital (Kirkland) has 12 of those ECMO machines.
Evergreen is a great hospital, but not as large as some of the others in Bellevue and Seattle. I would think that Harbor View would have the most ECMO machines, but a quick search didn’t give me any results on their number.
here’s a handy little video explaining estimating cases
KHAN ACADEMY-12min video
Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel corona virus infections) in an area based on deaths
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk
Things to remember:
Covid-19 has taken over 6,500 lives in approx. 3 months, between Dec 2019 and Mar 15, 2020, or about 2K a month
the 2019-20 flu season has taken approx. 20K lives, in approx. 6 months between Sep 2019 and Mar 2020, or about 3K a month (approx. 60% H1N1)
In 2014, H1N1 took 6,600 lives over approx. 5 months, between Oct and Feb, or about 1K per month.
In 2009, the H1N1 pandemic took between 8,870 and 18,300 lives in the US and up to 203K lives worldwide over approximately 8 months, or between 1-30K per month.
In 2003, Sars took 8,000 lives over approx. 9 months, between Nov 2002 and July 2003, or about 1K a month
Thanks! I love Khan Academy - helped out a lot while trying to get the kids up to speed on things.
The one point I’ll make before looking at the video - all of those other events are finished. Covid-19 isn’t yet. Regardless - it doesn’t seem as bad as some of the others. So why the huge reaction to it by the Chinese - and now all of the other countries.
Sometimes I think it is a HUGE deal and will be terrible (and am treating it that way - heck - the effect it is having already are terrible). But then other times I wonder why China, and the rest of us are reacting to it so strongly when it doesn’t seem much worse than previous viruses?
I really hope that I am wrong and I (and mainly my wife) can look back on it and laugh. Along with some of the stuff that I did in preparation for Y2K (mostly my wife laughs at me about that - she isn’t now with regard to the virus.)
I think the strong reaction is because whereas ‘normal’ flu is more an upper respiratory infection, and deaths are usually from a secondary bacterial invasion, COVID is a lower respiratory infection that goes straight for the 02 exchange system. COVID requires a higher level of PPE, and a larger team to provide care. Critical care means induced coma so the person can be intubated. COVID also seems to affect more organs than the lungs. The RO rate is higher than normal flu so it can spread faster. And some can spread the disease for a week or more while remaining asymptomatic.
Those with normal flu can generally take some antivirals, some OTC meds and go back to work. Not so with COVID, because live virus is shed in bodily fluids for some time. Fewer patients can be treated in a hospital because more sick that are sicker longer, take up more hospital resources (manpower and equipment) for a longer period of time ( a few days versus 20+ days = higher risk for cross-contamination to hcw’s).
And probably just as concerning is the age groups affected - what seemed dangerous mainly to 80+, has reduced down into the 20s and 30s, some otherwise healthy with no pre-existing. We’ve seen a few cases involving symptomatic children and also at least two births resulting in infected babies - the long-term effects as yet unknown. Everything about this virus is wacky. And because it’s a RNA virus, and harder to build a vaccine for, it’s much safer to just shut it down than let it burn thru the population and risk worse mutations. But that’s just my viewpoint of course.
“ so this is the week (or two) that we watch everyone fall out that isn’t isolating. And once the non-isolators have self-selected for a Darwin experiment, we know which groups we can fraternize with - those that have been isolating for two weeks. Is that the gist of it?”
That’s how I read it, plus that right now is when the exponential infections begin ramping up, and those getting infected today will still have un unswamped healthcare system but those they infect will not.
In some areas, not all. The decisions should done by the local managers.
Thank you for this great comparison to the regular flu. It’s very helpful.
Jeffers is the big time tv guest preacher there. The other day on FNC, he basically stated screening the service at home was inferior to being inside the church with sick people. His analogy was being in front of a fire place compared to watching a fire on screen but throughout the interview made it clear people should be inside the church building. He’s more worried about the collection plate than his congregation.
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“His analogy was being in front of a fire place compared to watching a fire on screen...”
Good analogy. Chances of getting burned watching a fire on a screen is zero. ;)
Oh, that’s funny. The guy is trying to buy brownie points from God and the DA’s office. He’s scared. Thou shalt not price gouge your neighbor.
Seems too well written to be an “off the cuff” observation. Almost seems contrived.
Re: 1073 - maybe.
My take - probably tens of millions will be out of work that were not before the shutdown, as businesses fail.
The economic suffering will be substantial. On the level of the Great Depression - maybe.
Absolutely. One of the lowest maintenance crops I know of.
And certainly worth the garden space.
Since mine has always been limited, I always tended to plant things that make it very cost effective.
No point in planting carrots and onion, which I never had luck with anyways, when they are so cheap in the stores.
Garlic and scallions, OTOH, are way too expensive, take up very little garden space, and are a great deal with you consider the cost of the seeds to the cost of buying the item in the store.
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