Invitation to do the math for your state: COVID-19 cases as a a percent of the population

03/12/20 | daniel1212

[daniel1212]

Invitation to do the math for your state: COVID-19 cases as a percent of the population.

Below is a list of states per currently reported COVID-19 infections (by CNN, of 3-12-20) in comparison with population size (note that variations in reported cases are partly be due to how comprehensive testing can and has been done). Using an online calculator as here, (see second row under “Percentage Calculator in Common Phrases”, and remove commas in population figure), then 95 “is what percent of” 6949503 = 0.001367. Is this correct? And what correlations do you see that may be of interest?

In any case, I pray this works to bring souls to realize the need for repentance and mercy from God through faith in the risen Lord Jesus.

State	Population	COVID-19 cases	Percentage
Washington	7,614,893	373
New York	19,453,561	216
California	39,512,223	139
Massachusetts	6,949,503	95	0.001367
Colorado	5,758,736	33
Georgia	10,617,423	31
Florida	21,477,737	29
Illinois	12,671,821	25
New Jersey	8,882,190	23
Texas	28,995,881	21
Oregon	4,217,737	19
Pennsylvania	12,801,989	15
Iowa	3,155,070	14
Louisiana	4,648,794	14
Maryland	6,045,680	12
North Carolina	10,488,084	11
District of Columbia	705,749	10
Indiana	6,732,219	10
Nebraska	1,934,408	10
South Carolina	5,148,714	10
Wisconsin	5,822,434	10
Arizona	7,278,717	9
Virginia	8,535,519	9
Kentucky	4,467,673	8
South Dakota	884,659	8
Nevada	3,080,156	7
Tennessee	6,833,174	7
Minnesota	5,639,632	5
New Hampshire	1,359,711	5
Rhode Island	1,059,361	5
New Mexico	2,096,829	4
Ohio	11,689,100	4
Connecticut	3,565,287	3
Utah	3,205,958	3
Hawaii	1,415,872	2
Michigan	9,986,857	2
Oklahoma	3,956,971	2
Vermont	623,989	2
Arkansas	3,017,825	1
Delaware	973,764	1
Kansas	2,913,314	1
Mississippi	2,976,149	1
Missouri	6,137,428	1
North Dakota	762,062	1
Wyoming	578,759	1
Alabama	4,903,185	0
Idaho	1,792,065	0
West Virginia	1,787,147	0
Maine	1,344,212	0
Montana	1,068,778	0
Alaska	731,545	0

[Diana in Wisconsin]

You can worry for the both of us. I am leaving it in your hands. Thanks! :)

[dp0622]

It’s just not a real, good old fashioned, all out pandemic when people aren’t dropping like flies.

I Worry about mom and my aunts in their 80s who aren’t as strong anymore.

Aunt Millie is 81 and she could beat this thing while running a marathon :)

I was wrong early on in thinking that it would never spread past a few dozen people here.

So I till take each day.

But without lots of corpses...it’s just another virus.

[daniel1212]

The number infected figures are wrong.

I got them from here: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/index.html

[daniel1212]

“I thought this would be interesting, if accurate. In addition, with a total of 1,290 cases and the population for Fifty states + D.C. being 328,239,523, then is an infection rate of 0.000393 correct?”

not quite, as you left out two zeroes: the infection rate is 0.00000393.

Even less than I thought then.

[daniel1212]

RE: I thought this would be interesting, if accurate. In addition, with a total of 1,290 cases and the population for Fifty states + D.C. being 328,239,523, then is an infection rate of 0.000393 correct? Yes, but you cannot assume that all the table column numbers will be static like the first two columns. The third column will be INCREASING in number for each row as more testing continues. Hence, the numbers in the fourth row will be increasing too.

Yes, but I am dealing with the present data.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

My Dad is in a care facility. Just to be on the safe side, they are giving staff and ‘inmates’ Tamiflu for the next 10 days, whether they’ve had their flu vaccine or not. (Dad has, got the bill for it this week.)

I’m glad they’re being pro-active for the elderly and those that have compromised immune systems.

However, usually a flu shot sees them ALL through the winter months.

*SHRUG*

I still have this nagging feeling we’re being played. Bigly. ;)

[BenLurkin]

Off by a factor of ten or so according to yesterdays UK briefing.

[cherry]

I'm convinced of the seriousness of this virus which is why I bought sanitzer and TP many weeks ago....but I also believe its been severely overblown...

they all say look at Italy....the worse of their problem happened in an area with a high Chinese immigrants....many Chinese travel to China for their New year and then return....

what happened is many of them caught the virus, brought it back to Italy and overwhelmed the system.....

we are going to be okay and those that have shut down national sports/ and Broadway musicals etc should be held up to face their total lack of common sense and perspective.....

[Pollard]

driving you crazy is it?

[PeatownPaul]

I find when the percentages are really small it’s hard for most people to comprehend what that small number means. Much easier to analyse the results if you view on an infected person per per the population. For us here in Texas that would be 1:1360756

So, not many. When it gets to be 1:1000 then there is a big problem. Let’s see how it goes from here.

[oldenuff35]

california is .000315178% 139 devided by over 39500000 people.

[amorphous]

...with a total of 1,290 cases and the population for...

Tell me again how many people in the US have actually been tested to see if they have the Corona virus. I seem to have missed the number in your post above...

[exDemMom]

Infectious diseases spread according to an exponential function. That means that during the initial phases of the spread, the number of cases is barely even noticeable. But as the number of cases grows, the spread becomes faster.

The R0 of Covid-19 is around 2.5. Thus, one case might infect two or three others, so now there are 3 or 4 cases. Each of those new cases infects on average 2.5 more, so now there are 8 or more cases. With exponential growth, it does not take long for every susceptible person in the population to be infected. Since no one has preexisting immunity to Covid-19, we can assume that most people are susceptible.

I am amazed at the number of people who do not understand how infectious diseases are transmitted, the characteristics of pandemic capable viruses, or what exponential growth is. We should not panic, but we also should not dismiss this because there are currently very few cases as a function of the population. The people who shrug this off are the ones who will end up spreading it, because they did not take the warnings and precautions seriously enough to take any infection control measures.

[WVNan]

Me too Diana. It just keep nagging at me, that somebody or some country or group are playing us. I could be wrong of course, but woman’s intuition, there’s that.....

[ptsal]

I assume that Massachusetts needs training wheels when it comes to division.

[semantic]

Well, as has been constantly repeated by many others, the crux of the issue is exponential growth. That is, the projected doubling rate given a known growth factor.

Commonly known as the rule of 70, just divide days to find the % rate, or % rate to find the number of days. For example, a doubling rate of 3 days would translate to an approx 25% daily rate. You can see how this could quickly get out of hand without strict controls over social contact and movement.

People - for whatever reason - tend to keep talking about death rates, recovery, seriousness, MSM/DNC plots, etc. That's not the issue - the issue is the total gross number of infected individuals within a certain time frame. Too fast and you swamp the system, inflicting very real economic and human costs. Slower, metered and managed, a completely different story eg Italy vs Taiwan.

Here's a good analogy: two people each have a case of wine. One drinks it all in a single week blow out, while the other savors it over 2-3 months, combining it with dinner, friends, etc. See the problem? One is a raging alcoholic, while the other is a socially responsible individual.

Trump's address last night initiated a string of cascade events all aimed at suppressing the peak of the curve and extending the time frame of total infections. That's really what this is all about. Anything else is really just a waste of mental energy, completely off the point and a waste of time.

While I assume there will still be lagging posts debating moot issues like good/bad, true/false, in reality that ship has already sailed. The next relevant topics of discussions and decisions will be control management policies, implementation tactics, logistics, etc.

[dp0622]

I agree with your statement.

BTW, can I borrow some TP? :)

I can’t believe how all the stores are empty of canned goods and TP etc.

Thank God I looked ahead a few months ago and bought 6 months worth of Jack Daniels

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Agreed!

Who among us females HASN’T been able to spot the ‘Player’ that made a move on us at one point or another in our lives? ;)

[dp0622]

It wouldn’t be the first time we got played.

Barring a total world economy collapse, some tech stocks are beginning to look tasty at their prices.

Like I said, I’ll take each day...

Prayers to you and yours

[bigbob]

Thanks but I prefer to look at data that is put out by people who do that for a living. Pick one:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/maps-visuals