I don't think I'm more knowledgeable than you, but here are a couple of charts you may or may not find helpful:
Thanks.
You’ve posted death totals.
Not death rates.
Give it 6 months and we’ll have a death rate to compare to previous death rates.
2009 Flu Pandemic
The most recent flu pandemic in the US, initially known as “swine flu,” occurred in 2009 with a novel influenza virus, H1N1, not previously identified in either animals or humans, per the CDC. The virus was actually first detected in the US, and spread quickly cross the US and the world. According to the CDC, between April 12, 2009 and April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the US due to the virus. The CDC also estimated that up to 575,400 people died worldwide.
And hardly a mention of this in the commie media at the time. I hardly even remember the Swine Flu, no one made a fuss about it, gee I wonder why, who was President at that time, thinking, thinking...
The hysteria we are seeing is news media social media induced.
Politicians have politicized it and the media has over hyped it; meanwhile regular flu deaths in the us have claimed over 105 children.
1918 Influenza (Spanish flu) killed over 50 million when world population was about 2 billion. Don’t know the actual or estimated rate. This seemed to last nearly 3 years.
More at WIKI.
wayyy off topic.
I’m hoping that the single use bags will be brought back in NYS. What better place for the virus to hang out in than the reusable bags they’ve been selling.
The 5 cent paper bags are now called nickel bags. LOL
Glad you asked..here’s something I wrote up for family members on a FB discussion about CV-19 we’re having..
One final thing that might help put all this in perspective..there are estimates from credible experts (see https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for) including a leading epidemiologist who’s the Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard and a biostatistician to the WHO that CV-19 will infect up to 40-70% of the global population (Harvard estimate) or up to two-thirds (WHO biostatistician estimate). Let’s assume those are both wildly pessimistic (OK, doom and gloom, totally wrong), and it instead infects “only” 10% vs the 40-70% or 66% number those guys are using. With 7.8 Billion people worldwide, a very conservative 10% infection rate would affect 780 million people. With a current CFR of 3.4% (God helps us if that holds), that’s 26.5M dead globally. IF (and it’s a big IF), the CFR drops to Spanish Flu levels of ~2%, that’s still 15.6M people. An optimistic (and unlikely) 1% still gets us to 7.8M people. (At 40% [low end of Harvard estimate] and current CFR of 3.4%, 106.8M people. Don’t run the math on the high end!) Those obviously are staggering numbers and seem completely unbelievable..but that’s what Harvard, the WHO and others are projecting. So, to XXX’s original “do you really believe” question..the calculations using very conservative numbers much less (10% vs. 40-70%) than what the “experts” are saying sure seems to bear that out. Not trying to scare anyone but I do see too much “it’s just like the flu and no big deal!” going around..and that’s equally frightening if any of this does come to pass.. Let’s hope and pray that these guys are way off and that it does wind up not being as big of a deal as it seems like it will be.
There’s also the study (which I believe was from a major University in Australia) posted on Drudge last night that predicts from 15M (”best case”) to 68M (”worst case”) dead worldwide, with 260K - 1M+ of those in the US.
Then, there’s the American Hospital Association presentation linked from Business Insider that says the AHA is preparing for 96 million (!) cases in the US, with ~480K dead.
Hope that helps..I’m fairly frustrated at all the “it’s no big deal!” posts as I’ve been reading literally hundreds of articles since the end of Jan or so on this. It IS a (very) big deal and could be the most significant event any of us have ever seen. I PRAY that I am wrong, but my gut says that I (unfortunately) won’t be.
The Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-1920 was the mother of all pandemics.
“The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.”
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic
This flu is a political flu. If we had the Kenyan as prez,this would not be a crisis directed at the president but a crisis to grow government nevertheless. Under the Kenyan,we had swine,bird,Ebola and all other world disease flow into the porous America. This flu is the DNC miracle that fell on their lap.
For this corona virus to have a greater death rate it would mean that the U.S. death toll this year would have to be in the hundreds of thousands.
There is not enough reliable testing nor data to say that the death rate is greater than a regular flu season. But the news media is falsely creating panic to create a global depression for political reasons. The news media coverage is false because there is no data to support their claim of a higher death rate yet. The virus is just too new.
Now a global economic depression will kill millions of people worldwide even in the USA. But nobody cares about that they just believe a news media that is biased and political
The 2009 swine flu as another person here posted did spread incredibly fast in that year 60 million U.S. cases in a few months.
2009 Flu Pandemic
The most recent flu pandemic in the US, initially known as “swine flu,” occurred in 2009 with a novel influenza virus, H1N1, not previously identified in either animals or humans, per the CDC. The virus was actually first detected in the US, and spread quickly cross the US and the world. According to the CDC, between April 12, 2009 and April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the US due to the virus. The CDC also estimated that up to 575,400 people died worldwide.
As sarah baracuda posted there was no where near the media hysteria that year 2009 when obama was president.
So this corona virus is not something that hasn't happened before .. At worst it will be like the 2009 swine flu. And there is no evidence yet that the death rate of corona virus is any greater than the yearly flu nor the 2009 swine flu that didn't kill us all either .
The media wants to create a worldwide depression just to get a socialist elected president and they don't care how many millions more die in this economic depression.
People can do what they want in their own lives. but to quarantine everyone when there is no evidence and then as history proves in past flu pandemics they all went away and didn't kill everyone as the media is claiming this one is different when it really can't be if you look at history (and now we have better tech and should come up with a vaccine quicker so there is no need to panim imo )
Suppose this is as contagious as norovirus, which also survives for extended periods on surfaces unlike the vast majority of viral contagions. It is transmittable by air, but by far most transmission by contact.
20 million cases in the USA, 200 million world wide.
Apply coronavirus death rate of .5 percent for modern country, as per south korea expanded testing results.
That’d be 100,000 dead in USA, overwhelmingly killing just the old, especially old with comorbidities. That’s if nothing was done, and if this wild comparison was accurate (it isn’t). For unknown reasons coronavirus isn’t killing the young like typical flu.
Norovirus transmission is crippled if people wash their hands with soap and water (or sanitizer).
Have oldsters avoid theatres, schools, crowds. Have them wash their hands and be extra careful with food prep and serving transmission.
Death rate drops to tiny fraction.
Infection rate crashes after April with moister air.
There’s a once every few hundred year chance it mutates into something very scary, but probably we’re mostly fine.
Maybe the story will be worse in Iran and elsewhere.
There are tons of unwarranted, ridiculous assumptions and comparisons built into this post, but it’s an example of a worst case scenario the government should have contingency plans for.
It’s not an estimation of what I think will happen.
Fun thought exercise for me as a no-nothing keyboard warrior
I don’t believe that this Virus was produced by nature.
Bookmark
Here are the CDC “summary numbers” for the flu for 2010-2019:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
This is the first social media flu.
I never would have heard of the weird virus in a placed call Wuhan before the middle of January at the earliest. Now someone has diarrhea after bowl of bat soup and it’s world wide news.
Hong Kong Flu 1968
A lot of young people died from this one...
I was 19 and got it...I went to a doctor who told me he had no medicine to give me...to go home, I would either die or get well...
I don't think I'm more knowledgeable than you, but here are a couple of charts you may or may not find helpful:
**I was a kid during the Hong Kong Flu epidemic, 13, and I can’t recall if there was any kind of panic then. ***
Most people then were worried about the Polio epidemic.