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Death Rates of Past Flu Pandemics
Self | 03-07-2020 | Captain Peter Blood

Posted on 03/07/2020 11:33:25 AM PST by Captain Peter Blood

In doing a cursory look at some recent past Pandemics, Flu related I found the following:

Asian Flu

Another flu pandemic, the "Asian Flu" began in East Asia in 1957, according to the CDC. That specific influenza virus was an H2N2 strain, which was first detected in Singapore in February 1957. From there, the virus made its way to Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in the summer of 1957. An estimated 1.1 million people died of the Asian flu worldwide, with 116,000 of them in the United States.

1968 Flu Pandemic

The flu pandemic of 1968—also called the Hong Kong Flu—originated in China in July 1968, according to Encyclopaedia Britannica. Caused by an influenza A virus (H3N2), it was the third pandemic flu outbreak to occur in the 20th century, killing one million people worldwide and about 100,000 people in the US alone.

According to Encyclopaedia Brittanica, it's believed that 1957's Asian Flu pandemic may have given rise to the 1968 pandemic through a process called "antigenic shift," in which there are small changes to the genes of a flu virus which can lead to changes in the surface proteins of a virus—HA (hemagglutinin) and NA (neuraminidase)—which trigger the body's immune response. Ultimately, those antigenic shifts, is why people can get the flu more than once, according to the CDC, and why a yearly flu vaccine is necessary for the best protection against the virus and its ever-changing nature.

2009 Flu Pandemic

The most recent flu pandemic in the US, initially known as "swine flu," occurred in 2009 with a novel influenza virus, H1N1, not previously identified in either animals or humans, per the CDC. The virus was actually first detected in the US, and spread quickly cross the US and the world. According to the CDC, between April 12, 2009 and April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the US due to the virus. The CDC also estimated that up to 575,400 people died worldwide.

According to the CDC, the 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and middle-aged adults (older adults had immunity, likely from a previous exposure to a similar H1N1 virus). And while the pandemic officially ended on August 10, 2010, the (H1N1)pdm09 virus continues to circulate as a seasonal flu virus, causing illness, hospitalization, and deaths worldwide every year.

In each of these recent cases the number of people that died is pretty staggering, yet I don't don't know whether there was a panic like we are seeing with the Coronavirus.

I was a kid during the Hong Kong Flu epidemic, 13, and I can't recall if there was any kind of panic then.

Right now with this Pandemic, we are not seeing the kind of deaths yet that previous ones have had, of course we don't know exactly what the real story in China is.

The question is are we overreacting on this or not enough?

What we know is this virus for most is mild and people recover, some of the death rate clusters are being seen in Nursing Homes, and those have compromised immune systems from various diseases.

I believe one factor causing the panic is the fact this virus can spread easily and even by people who are asymptomatic.


TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: flu; flumortality; hongkong; mortality; swine
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To: jstolzen

Thanks for the info.


21 posted on 03/07/2020 12:15:50 PM PST by Captain Peter Blood (https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/3804407/posts?q=1&;page=61)
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To: Captain Peter Blood

This flu is a political flu. If we had the Kenyan as prez,this would not be a crisis directed at the president but a crisis to grow government nevertheless. Under the Kenyan,we had swine,bird,Ebola and all other world disease flow into the porous America. This flu is the DNC miracle that fell on their lap.


22 posted on 03/07/2020 12:16:43 PM PST by shanover (...To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them.-S.Adams)
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To: Captain Peter Blood; Sarah Barracuda; All
80,000 Americans died in the 2017- 2018 flu season in the USA: https://www.vox.com/2018/9/27/17910318/flu-deaths-2018-epidemic-outbreak-shot

For this corona virus to have a greater death rate it would mean that the U.S. death toll this year would have to be in the hundreds of thousands.

There is not enough reliable testing nor data to say that the death rate is greater than a regular flu season. But the news media is falsely creating panic to create a global depression for political reasons. The news media coverage is false because there is no data to support their claim of a higher death rate yet. The virus is just too new.

Now a global economic depression will kill millions of people worldwide even in the USA. But nobody cares about that they just believe a news media that is biased and political

The 2009 swine flu as another person here posted did spread incredibly fast in that year 60 million U.S. cases in a few months.

2009 Flu Pandemic

The most recent flu pandemic in the US, initially known as “swine flu,” occurred in 2009 with a novel influenza virus, H1N1, not previously identified in either animals or humans, per the CDC. The virus was actually first detected in the US, and spread quickly cross the US and the world. According to the CDC, between April 12, 2009 and April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the US due to the virus. The CDC also estimated that up to 575,400 people died worldwide.

As sarah baracuda posted there was no where near the media hysteria that year 2009 when obama was president.

So this corona virus is not something that hasn't happened before .. At worst it will be like the 2009 swine flu. And there is no evidence yet that the death rate of corona virus is any greater than the yearly flu nor the 2009 swine flu that didn't kill us all either .

The media wants to create a worldwide depression just to get a socialist elected president and they don't care how many millions more die in this economic depression.

People can do what they want in their own lives. but to quarantine everyone when there is no evidence and then as history proves in past flu pandemics they all went away and didn't kill everyone as the media is claiming this one is different when it really can't be if you look at history (and now we have better tech and should come up with a vaccine quicker so there is no need to panim imo )

23 posted on 03/07/2020 12:17:40 PM PST by rurgan (Democrats are socialists. Vote for Trump or the US will be Venezuela)
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To: Captain Peter Blood

Suppose this is as contagious as norovirus, which also survives for extended periods on surfaces unlike the vast majority of viral contagions. It is transmittable by air, but by far most transmission by contact.

20 million cases in the USA, 200 million world wide.

Apply coronavirus death rate of .5 percent for modern country, as per south korea expanded testing results.

That’d be 100,000 dead in USA, overwhelmingly killing just the old, especially old with comorbidities. That’s if nothing was done, and if this wild comparison was accurate (it isn’t). For unknown reasons coronavirus isn’t killing the young like typical flu.

Norovirus transmission is crippled if people wash their hands with soap and water (or sanitizer).

Have oldsters avoid theatres, schools, crowds. Have them wash their hands and be extra careful with food prep and serving transmission.
Death rate drops to tiny fraction.
Infection rate crashes after April with moister air.
There’s a once every few hundred year chance it mutates into something very scary, but probably we’re mostly fine.
Maybe the story will be worse in Iran and elsewhere.

There are tons of unwarranted, ridiculous assumptions and comparisons built into this post, but it’s an example of a worst case scenario the government should have contingency plans for.
It’s not an estimation of what I think will happen.
Fun thought exercise for me as a no-nothing keyboard warrior


24 posted on 03/07/2020 12:19:42 PM PST by Mount Athos
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To: Jim W N

Historians believe that the Black Death was worse than the Spanish flu. Fewer people died overall because there were fewer people on the planet. It took over 200 years for the population to recover.


25 posted on 03/07/2020 12:20:37 PM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
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To: Mount Athos

oh the numbers i came up with are similar to typical annual death rate for flu, what a coincidence


26 posted on 03/07/2020 12:21:01 PM PST by Mount Athos
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To: Captain Peter Blood

I don’t believe that this Virus was produced by nature.


27 posted on 03/07/2020 12:21:52 PM PST by Revel
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To: Mount Athos

The death rate has to be much lower than reported for corona virus.

You have to test a large number of the population to be able to get an accurate death rate.

This just hasn’t been done yet.

I’ve seen estimates as low as .6% and even 2% but there have been a lot of people not tested yet and this virus has only been around for a few months.


28 posted on 03/07/2020 12:24:44 PM PST by rurgan (Democrats are socialists. Vote for Trump or the US will be Venezuela)
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To: Captain Peter Blood

Bookmark


29 posted on 03/07/2020 12:29:53 PM PST by aquila48 (Do not let them make you care!)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

After six months of the Swine Flu, Obama finally got around to appointing Biden’s Chief of Staff, with a banking background, to the job of heading up a task force to deal with it. Not a peep from the Democrat media or the Republicans about this lethargic response, however.


30 posted on 03/07/2020 12:34:00 PM PST by txrefugee
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To: 1_Rain_Drop

Same in all of Oregon


31 posted on 03/07/2020 12:34:01 PM PST by goodnesswins (Want to know your family genealogy? Run for political office...")
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To: Captain Peter Blood

Here are the CDC “summary numbers” for the flu for 2010-2019:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html


32 posted on 03/07/2020 12:39:27 PM PST by Drago
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

Nothing like what’s coming in a few decades - near the end of the century IMO. In 3 1/2 years half of the earth will be dead. In the last 3 1/2 years the whole earth will be dead except for a handful of Jews hiding in the mountains of Jordan (Petra). That will be AFTER Jesus comes to take his own outta here.

We ain’t seen nuttin yet.


33 posted on 03/07/2020 12:46:20 PM PST by Jim W N (MAGA by restoring the Gospel of the Grace of Christ and our Free Constitutional Republic!)
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To: SaxxonWoods

Sobering too.


34 posted on 03/07/2020 12:50:22 PM PST by umgud
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To: Jim W N

That should make Greta Thunberg and AOC happy if not too many other people.


35 posted on 03/07/2020 12:53:18 PM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

Yea. especially when the sea turns to blood. These EnviroNazis are so stupid - they have no idea what’s coming.


36 posted on 03/07/2020 12:57:21 PM PST by Jim W N (MAGA by restoring the Gospel of the Grace of Christ and our Free Constitutional Republic!)
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To: umgud

I believe one factor causing the panic is the fact this virus can spread easily and even by people who are asymptomatic.

I believe one factor causing the panic is mass media hyping it daily with the items dire, deadly, and any other gruesome verbiage they can conjure up. And, hoping it will put President Trump in a spot.


37 posted on 03/07/2020 12:59:38 PM PST by JayAr36 (Organized Crime is now in charge of the District of Corruption)
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To: rurgan
And there is no evidence yet that the death rate of corona virus is any greater than the yearly flu nor the 2009 swine flu that didn't kill us all either.

Sorry, but I respectfully disagree. The Case Fatality Rate for the flu is 0.83% (per the CDC) for ages 65 and over, and minuscule (0.06% for those 50-64 and even less for those under 50). The CFR for Covid-19 so far is 3.4% per the WHO. The current stats at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ back that up - divide the # dead by # infected from the top of that page. That's over 35X more deadly than the common flu. Plus, it has an infectious rate (R0) that is greater than the Spanish Flu, and up to 3.5X the common flu.

If those numbers continue to hold anywhere near those levels, we are likely totally screwed.

38 posted on 03/07/2020 1:10:30 PM PST by jstolzen
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To: Captain Peter Blood

This is the first social media flu.

I never would have heard of the weird virus in a placed call Wuhan before the middle of January at the earliest. Now someone has diarrhea after bowl of bat soup and it’s world wide news.


39 posted on 03/07/2020 1:12:08 PM PST by Vermont Lt
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To: Mount Athos
There are tons of unwarranted, ridiculous assumptions and comparisons built into this post

So the projections by Harvard's Director of Infectious Disease and the WHO's leading biostatistician (among many others) are "ridiculous"?

See my earlier post up-thread. If these guys are even stupidly, orders of magnitude wrong, we are still potentially looking at 15M+ dead worldwide. If they're right, the numbers are staggering - 106M to 185M dead using the Harvard estimates and CURRENT CFR, by the WHO. While I don't think we will hit the 40-70% infected rate Harvard is projecting (maybe just blind optimism on my part), even a 10% infection rate will be a disaster of proportions we haven't seen in over a hundred years - and I don't personally think that's "ridiculous" in the slightest.

I don't understand why so many of you keep doubting what we're up against. It has a higher current CFR (Case Fatality Rate) than the Spanish Flu PER THE WHO - not some made-up numbers..is MORE contagious (much higher R0 number) AND we have global travel plus subways, busses and other mass transit that we did not have in 1918. We also have 7.8B vs 1.8B people worldwide, so the math is not in our favor. I'd love to hear a reasoned, objective viewpoint based on hard data as to why we won't hit the types of numbers that are being discussed. I actually hope that we WON'T - but the objective data so far says otherwise.

40 posted on 03/07/2020 1:19:13 PM PST by jstolzen
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