So the projections by Harvard's Director of Infectious Disease and the WHO's leading biostatistician (among many others) are "ridiculous"?
See my earlier post up-thread. If these guys are even stupidly, orders of magnitude wrong, we are still potentially looking at 15M+ dead worldwide. If they're right, the numbers are staggering - 106M to 185M dead using the Harvard estimates and CURRENT CFR, by the WHO. While I don't think we will hit the 40-70% infected rate Harvard is projecting (maybe just blind optimism on my part), even a 10% infection rate will be a disaster of proportions we haven't seen in over a hundred years - and I don't personally think that's "ridiculous" in the slightest.
I don't understand why so many of you keep doubting what we're up against. It has a higher current CFR (Case Fatality Rate) than the Spanish Flu PER THE WHO - not some made-up numbers..is MORE contagious (much higher R0 number) AND we have global travel plus subways, busses and other mass transit that we did not have in 1918. We also have 7.8B vs 1.8B people worldwide, so the math is not in our favor. I'd love to hear a reasoned, objective viewpoint based on hard data as to why we won't hit the types of numbers that are being discussed. I actually hope that we WON'T - but the objective data so far says otherwise.
whoa there partner, i was trying to call my own post full of unwarranted assumptions and ridiculous comparisons.
Not yours. I was trying to be humble, as when i said i was a no nothing keyboard warrior
If the Spanish Flu had been in today’s world the death rate could have been twice what it was. Has someone ever run the numbers using that computer model?
The sky is falling. You keep acting like a fatality rate has been established. It hasn’t. We have no idea how many people think they have a cold or the flu & stay at home & recover without any intervention. The only place with massive testing SK has a much lower fatality rate because they have tested more people. Stop pretending the experts know the answers. They are winging it.