If the Spanish Flu had been in today’s world the death rate could have been twice what it was. Has someone ever run the numbers using that computer model?
Not that I know of..if they have, I haven’t seen the analysis.
Even if the CFR #s are currently over-estimated (not sure I think it is and am just going off latest WHO numbers), the R0 (spreadability/infectious rate) is what has me the most concerned. This thing is MORE contagious than the Spanish Flu, with a R0 of up to 3.5 (if I remember right..it’s mid 3s somewhere). Spanish Flu was 2.0’ish.
CFR aside, this thing spreads like wildfire. That’s why we’re seeing huge exponential increases in cases in Italy and Iran for instance.
Even worse, it can spread asymptomatically. And take up to 28 days (average 5-6) to show symptoms. So imagine all the highly infectious people moving around on flights, mass transit, in schools, churches, restaurants, events and crowds who may not even know they have it. That’s not good.