Some are very useful, but never trust them 100%!
Posted on 09/01/2019 2:07:56 AM PDT by CptnObvious
What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?
Was it me, or were ALL the computer models hitting Florida for several days. And I don't remember even one predicting it going to the east of Florida and up beside the US East Coast.
Now, all but one predict it NOT hitting Florida, the one predicting a loop into Florida and back then zipping up the coast with all the other models.
My question is, What Happened to change all the Computer Models, in one day so drastically. How did all the computer models get changed like this so fast?
Were we getting Played?
The computer models were correct but the governor placed detour signs up and down the coast
we weren’t played, the models gave their best estimates with the information available.
BUT this should serve as a caution to those who want to trust government (and scientists) with decisions about our lives based on the unpredictability of God’s creation. They didn’t KNOW three to five days out what was going to happen; how can we turn over life-changing decisions (which most government officials won’t abide by) based on what they SAY will happen thirty to fifty years from now?
Liberty.
Well, consider they can't predict a hurricane but predict the earth has only 12 years left before global warming destroys us.
I'd keep an eye on the hurricane judging by their global warming predictions. For all we know it's headed for Miami.
indeed.
It must hit Florida. That was settled science and the consensus of scientists.
That’s the only thing I’ve read that helps with my understanding of the prediction process. Thank you!
Dorian was moving faster at one point and a High was riding the eastern seaboard and steering it West toward the lowest pressure areas...movement slowed down and the High started to dissipate (and low wasn’t the draw it had been) allowing for a Northerly turn...not getting played - just showing that even with a LOT of current date, we can’t fully predict the weather - with a super high energy system like a hurricane, all bets are off until all the contribution factors “solidify”
Jesus said “No man knows which way the wind blows.”
They have he worlds most powerful computers working on weather and they still can’t predict the weather for a few days, let alone 11.49 years.
That was before they put the “Hurricane-Free Zone” signs up and down the Florida coast.
Also, authorities have got to be careful to not become the "Boy who Cried Wolf".
You WANT people to evacuate when it is coming, and not say, "Remember when we evacuate during Dorian, and then it went North, and we spent thousands in gas and lodging, only to get home in a constant rush hour and find our house was robbed? Never leaving again!!!"
Atlanta Motor Speedway, south of Atlanta, is always open for hurricane evacuees. Free with showers.
Some are very useful, but never trust them 100%!
“How did all the computer models get changed like this so fast? “
The storm has a ‘mind’ of it’s own. If it changes, the models have to change too.
“The sad thing is that probably 40,000 people went into catastrophic mode early on, and are already in hotels in Alabama.”
Not sad for Alabama’s economy
Of course they do. Dig into it.
Hurricane predictions are the best they have, based on current conditions and a bunch of different computer models. They are using the best technology available to save lives. Predictions just aren't very accurate more than a few days out (deep statistical analysis comparing predictions against actual results).
Climate change forecasts, on the other hand...
re: “What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?”
Stimulus generalization; you only looked at the centroid of the ‘cone’ plot, rather than the broader area which still showed a possible away from land ...
A change of mind on Dorian’s part.
“Hurricane Dorian projected path has placed Orlando back in the cone of uncertainty “
Hurricanes are God’s Laser Pointers and we are the cat being teased.
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