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Nothing Changed Yesterday—And Trump Is Still Not on the Path to Nomination
National Review ^ | 04/20/2016 | Jeremy Carl

Posted on 04/21/2016 8:20:11 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd

Before we begin debunking, let’s start with the obvious: It was undoubtedly a good night for Trump and unsurprisingly so, as NR’s Henry Olsen predicted on election eve.

Trump looks to have taken 90 delegates and 60 percent of the vote, somewhat better than projections, although most election-eve forecasts had him taking at least 85 or so of New York’s 95 delegates (Olsen had him pegged for 87).

But despite his victory, Trump got only a very modest bump from New York last night. And despite the breathless TV and print commentary from our New York–centered media, he still faces huge obstacles if he wants to get a sufficient number of delegates to be nominated on the first ballot. And if he is not nominated on the first ballot, given Cruz’s wildly successful delegate strategy, it is unlikely he will be nominated at all.

In fact, according to the analysis of the widely-respected 538.com, Trump actually fell just short of the number of delegates he needed in New York to put himself on the path to the magic number of 1,237.

And, though he should have a good week next week when Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote, he will need a New York–level performance, not just a victory, if he wants to substantially improve his nomination odds.

New York and the five states voting next Tuesday are all part of the Democrats’ “blue wall.” Democrats have won all of these states in each of the last six elections. Only one of these states (Pennsylvania) has given more than 45 percent of its vote to the GOP candidate in any of the last six elections. New York and Rhode Island have never even given 40 percent to GOP candidates during this time.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Cheese, Moose, Sister
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2016gopprimary; connecticut; cruzisobama2; cruzstraitjacket; cuckservatives; delaware; election2016; hillary; howarddeanredux; ilovetowhine; lemonadestand; maryland; moosebitsister; nationalgopereview; nationalreview; newyork; nrsux; oprah; pennsylvania; rhodeisland; richlowry; tds; tdswindup; transsexual; trump; waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah
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To: LS
So St. Ted does better than expected in WI and it’s “THE RACE HAS CHANGED” but Donald of Queens does better and it’s “NOTHING HAS CHANGED.”

At this point, positions have so hardened that opinions here are not likely to change. Mr. Trump clearly has an advantage but the race is not over. There must be a vote in the convention before anyone can be the nominee. If the convention selects a nominee on the first ballot, Mr. Trump is almost certain to win, but if it goes to a second ballot, all bets are off.

Regarding the Wisconsin and New York votes, there is one interesting point. New York has close to 3 1/2 times the population of Wisconsin yet the winner of the republican primary in New York received less total votes than the winner of the Wisconsin republican primary. When it comes to the general election, which of these traditional democrat states is more likely to end up in the republican column.

81 posted on 04/21/2016 9:35:50 AM PDT by etcb
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To: N. Theknow; onyx; Jane Long; PA Engineer; Grampa Dave; KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle; SaveFerris; ...
Those pictures look like the aftermath of Jonestown.
And nobody jokes about Jim Jones and Jonestown...the punchlines are too long.


Oh I don't know, "Jerry Brown" isn't too long a punchline:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
82 posted on 04/21/2016 9:37:13 AM PDT by mkjessup (If you stand with Cruz, you stand with the GOPe, Jeb, Mitt, iSnarly, Reince & Karl. What's that say?)
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To: mkjessup

I can’t believe it was a Congressman(?) who flew down there. Got killed, too, I think.


83 posted on 04/21/2016 9:38:41 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Be a blessing to a stranger today for some have entertained angels unaware)
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To: SaveFerris

Congressman Leo Ryan. He may have been a ‘RAT but from what I recall, he wasn’t necessarily a bad guy. Was concerned for his constituents, and in an odd twist of fate and dodging a bullet, he had invited his close friend Dan Quayle to accompany him on that trip, and Quayle was unable to go.


84 posted on 04/21/2016 9:42:07 AM PDT by mkjessup (If you stand with Cruz, you stand with the GOPe, Jeb, Mitt, iSnarly, Reince & Karl. What's that say?)
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To: mkjessup

wow


85 posted on 04/21/2016 9:43:29 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Be a blessing to a stranger today for some have entertained angels unaware)
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To: navymom1

It was a bleep a few minutes ago on Rush Limbaugh—right at the start I think he said it originated on NBC network. I have been warming to Trump (please don’t let anyone know) but this bugs me. thanks for your kind words.


86 posted on 04/21/2016 9:45:25 AM PDT by RightLady (God Bless the USA)
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To: mkjessup; N. Theknow; onyx; Jane Long; PA Engineer; Grampa Dave; KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle; ...

We called Jerry Brown “Governor Moonbeam” way back in the 70’s. Only California would be psycho enough to bring him back!

Now he says illegal immigrants can vote. Lock the SOB up!


87 posted on 04/21/2016 9:52:13 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: mkjessup

Let’s all have a Canadian Club on the rocks in honor of Ryan.


88 posted on 04/21/2016 10:00:32 AM PDT by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

The article...yet another infectious, eruptive, drip, designed to contaminiate the heart, soul, and mind of decent, gentle people who love this country, seeking to salvage it from filthy pustules intent to destroy it.


89 posted on 04/21/2016 10:08:22 AM PDT by PrairieLady2 (Choose Cruz...and looze.)
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To: Responsibility2nd
Related, re. New York "values"...

Trump: Transgenders Should 'Use the Bathroom That They Feel Is Appropriate'
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3423235/posts


90 posted on 04/21/2016 10:10:02 AM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." --Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: Responsibility2nd

And you are still as dumb as a rock.


91 posted on 04/21/2016 10:13:00 AM PDT by mulligan (I)
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To: MrEdd; onyx; Jane Long; PA Engineer; Grampa Dave; KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle; SaveFerris; ...
Let’s all have a Canadian Club on the rocks in honor of Ryan.

Works for me. Here's to you Congressman:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

(Leo Ryan little known fact: In 1970, using a pseudonym, Ryan had himself arrested, detained, and strip searched to investigate conditions in the California prison system. He stayed as an inmate for ten days in Folsom Prison, while presiding as chairman on the Assembly committee that oversaw prison reform.)

He may have had flaws, and may have been on the liberal side of the fence, but the above bit of trivia tells me that he took his job seriously and he also served as a submariner in the United States Navy during World War II. Rest In Peace Leo.
92 posted on 04/21/2016 10:17:10 AM PDT by mkjessup (If you stand with Cruz, you stand with the GOPe, Jeb, Mitt, iSnarly, Reince & Karl. What's that say?)
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To: COBOL2Java

Lol, thanks for clearing that up. It’s the Great Pumpkin.


93 posted on 04/21/2016 10:20:50 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Buckeye McFrog
These guys are the modern day political equivalent of those Japanese soldiers found on an island years after WWII had ended, fanatically believing that the war was still underway.

"Our lives, our souls and our sacred honor, in devoted service to our glorious celestial Emperor Cruz! BANZAAAAAIIIIIIIII -- !!!"

94 posted on 04/21/2016 10:25:24 AM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle ("If you're not fiscally AND socially conservative, you're not conservative!" - Jim Robinson, 9-1-10)
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To: RightLady

No problem! I’m very tired of the infighting just because we support different candidates. God Bless!


95 posted on 04/21/2016 10:27:46 AM PDT by navymom1
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To: Responsibility2nd

The NR has gotten to the point where none of its contributors even pass the giggle test anymore.

The delusions run strong over there


96 posted on 04/21/2016 10:29:49 AM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: Pirate Ragnar

And those folks who post such comments probably haven’t watch Trump over the years as he worked behind the scenes for Ronald Reagan or read either of his two policy books one from 2000 and one from 2011.

It is easy to throw names around and to suggest that someone who doesn’t support a person’s favorite candidate is of low information or low intelligence. That usually comes from the left. I guess this year the circle is completed and it comes from both ends


97 posted on 04/21/2016 10:35:21 AM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle
Funny you should mention that Kent, I was just reading about various developments during the Pacific campaign of WWII, and saw an article about that guy:

"Hiroo Onoda was a Second Lieutenant in the Imperial Japanese Army intelligence officer who fought in World War II and was a Japanese holdout who did not surrender in 1945. Onoda spent nearly 30 years holding out in the Philippines, and would not surrender until his former commander traveled from Japan to personally issue orders relieving him from duty. That took place in 1974. Onoda returned to Japan and was greeted as a hero, and was urged to run for office, however he declined and was reportedly disappointed in what he consider the 'withering away' of traditional Japanese values." He died in January 2014.
98 posted on 04/21/2016 10:37:24 AM PDT by mkjessup (If you stand with Cruz, you stand with the GOPe, Jeb, Mitt, iSnarly, Reince & Karl. What's that say?)
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To: RightLady

That is not the only thing in Trump’s tax plan...His rational for taxing the uber wealthy (he cites hedge fund folks) certain’y has a place in the debate. The rest of his economic policy and tax plan is most excellent.

“Too few Americans are working, too many jobs have been shipped overseas, and too many middle class families cannot make ends meet. This tax plan directly meets these challenges with four simple goals:

Tax relief for middle class Americans: In order to achieve the American dream, let people keep more money in their pockets and increase after-tax wages.
Simplify the tax code to reduce the headaches Americans face in preparing their taxes and let everyone keep more of their money.
Grow the American economy by discouraging corporate inversions, adding a huge number of new jobs, and making America globally competitive again.
Doesn’t add to our debt and deficit, which are already too large.
The Trump Tax Plan Achieves These Goals”

Read more at https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/tax-reform


99 posted on 04/21/2016 10:38:41 AM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: mkjessup

He died doing what he loved best: managing the Cruz 2016 campaign. ;)


100 posted on 04/21/2016 10:38:42 AM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle ("If you're not fiscally AND socially conservative, you're not conservative!" - Jim Robinson, 9-1-10)
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