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Nothing Changed Yesterday—And Trump Is Still Not on the Path to Nomination
National Review ^ | 04/20/2016 | Jeremy Carl

Posted on 04/21/2016 8:20:11 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd

Before we begin debunking, let’s start with the obvious: It was undoubtedly a good night for Trump and unsurprisingly so, as NR’s Henry Olsen predicted on election eve.

Trump looks to have taken 90 delegates and 60 percent of the vote, somewhat better than projections, although most election-eve forecasts had him taking at least 85 or so of New York’s 95 delegates (Olsen had him pegged for 87).

But despite his victory, Trump got only a very modest bump from New York last night. And despite the breathless TV and print commentary from our New York–centered media, he still faces huge obstacles if he wants to get a sufficient number of delegates to be nominated on the first ballot. And if he is not nominated on the first ballot, given Cruz’s wildly successful delegate strategy, it is unlikely he will be nominated at all.

In fact, according to the analysis of the widely-respected 538.com, Trump actually fell just short of the number of delegates he needed in New York to put himself on the path to the magic number of 1,237.

And, though he should have a good week next week when Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote, he will need a New York–level performance, not just a victory, if he wants to substantially improve his nomination odds.

New York and the five states voting next Tuesday are all part of the Democrats’ “blue wall.” Democrats have won all of these states in each of the last six elections. Only one of these states (Pennsylvania) has given more than 45 percent of its vote to the GOP candidate in any of the last six elections. New York and Rhode Island have never even given 40 percent to GOP candidates during this time.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Cheese, Moose, Sister
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2016gopprimary; connecticut; cruzisobama2; cruzstraitjacket; cuckservatives; delaware; election2016; hillary; howarddeanredux; ilovetowhine; lemonadestand; maryland; moosebitsister; nationalgopereview; nationalreview; newyork; nrsux; oprah; pennsylvania; rhodeisland; richlowry; tds; tdswindup; transsexual; trump; waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah
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To: samtheman; xsmommy
Input from The National Review.

Those 4 words say it all.

They say a lot.

101 posted on 04/21/2016 10:50:54 AM PDT by SoothingDave (5)
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To: SoothingDave

ANATHEMA, gopE, neocons, what else? /trump hysteria


102 posted on 04/21/2016 10:54:17 AM PDT by xsmommy
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To: SoothingDave

didn’t you get the memo? trump=good; anyone who is not pro-Trump=antichrist.


103 posted on 04/21/2016 10:55:07 AM PDT by xsmommy
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To: navymom1

Read more at https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/tax-reform


104 posted on 04/21/2016 11:12:41 AM PDT by RightLady (God Bless the USA)
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To: Responsibility2nd
More & more, National Review appears to be caught up in cherry picking data & incidents, while deliberately ignoring the logical context of what they cherry pick. This is a fatal flaw in what is served up as reasoned analysis.

The idea that Trump cannot win in some of the States where he is crushing his Party opposition, because they are supposed to be permanently Democratic--what is implied by the misuse of the term "blue," now so prevalent--is pure fantasy. One of the many factors being basically overlooked, is the contemporary American fascination with "celebrities." (An obvious case in point, would be the successful "Arnold" foray into a California election, some years back.)

Moreover, much of the Trump phenomenon relates to issues that cut as strongly in Democratic circles as in Republican--such as outsourcing jobs, etc.. Donald can greatly increase his support by simply explaining the fallacies inherent in "macro economic" analysis, which both the Democrats and inside the Beltway Republicans regularly engage in.

105 posted on 04/21/2016 11:12:53 AM PDT by Ohioan
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To: Responsibility2nd

Terrible writing, to think that National Review was actually once a decent credible mag.


106 posted on 04/21/2016 11:15:07 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: lodi90

lol

NR is unhinged, nothing they write holds any weight as they’ve sold themselves. Pity


107 posted on 04/21/2016 11:17:36 AM PDT by AllAmericanGirl44
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To: AllAmericanGirl44

Of all of the publications that have lost all credibility this season, I’m sorriest about the once great, now simply tawdry, NR. RIP.


108 posted on 04/21/2016 11:20:45 AM PDT by The Continental Op
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To: ZULU
Bill Buckley is twisting in the grave over most of the crap you print.
Bill Buckley would never have responded to a burning house by calling for an arsonist.
109 posted on 04/21/2016 11:20:46 AM PDT by BluesDuke (Write by your thumbs and hang if you get work . . .)
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To: BluesDuke

Hardly. Trump will be a great president.


110 posted on 04/21/2016 11:33:35 AM PDT by ZULU (Trump is the answer. The Establishment is the problem.)
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I don’t get it. Trump took Jeb’s likability down to zero in a couple of months.. these people don’t think he can bring Hillary down a few notches?


111 posted on 04/21/2016 11:42:37 AM PDT by south jersey baller
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To: south jersey baller
I don’t get it. Trump took Jeb’s likability down to zero in a couple of months.. these people don’t think he can bring Hillary down a few notches?

Both Hillary and Trump have 100% name id - there is little Trump can say about Hillary that is not already priced in. Same thing about Trump. The problem is Trump starts out down by double digits, and has little opportunity to improve those numbers just by attacking.

112 posted on 04/21/2016 11:48:19 AM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: Responsibility2nd
National ReSpew? Is it all over for Trump? Without given it more than a glance, at the who wrote it and who posted it, that's the only natural conclusion I could come up with.

Can you help a brother out?

Vote Trump!

113 posted on 04/21/2016 12:57:40 PM PDT by BlackbirdSST (Trump 1237/2016)
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To: ZULU
Hardly. Trump will be a great president.
A man (or womanperson---hello, Hilarious Rodent Clinton!) who either a) knows little to nothing about the Constitution or b) would flout it willingly based on his (her) public remarks on the trail to date will be anything but a great president.

After one Clinton presidency, two terms of Bush II (and his good-for-nothing-but-metastasising-big-government Republican Congress), and two regimes of His Excellency Al-Hashish Field Marshmallow Dr. Barack Obama Dada, COD, RIP, LSMFT, Would-Have-Been-Life-President of the Republic Formerly Known as the United States (and his god-for-nothing-but-metastasising-big-government Congresses, Damnocrat and Republican't alike), I've about had a bellyful of presidents (and Congresses) who know as much about the Constitution (and upholding it) as a platypus knows about needlepoint.

Yes, they're the reason the house is on fire.

But you still don't trust fighting the fire to an arsonist. Which looks to be what our choice for November will be, barring some unforeseen political awakening or miracle.

114 posted on 04/21/2016 1:04:49 PM PDT by BluesDuke (Write by your thumbs and hang if you get work . . .)
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To: navymom1

A new reply Did you know Cruz got more votes in Wisconsin (531,129) than Trump got in NY (531,129) where is the media on that???


115 posted on 04/21/2016 1:24:10 PM PDT by RightLady (God Bless the USA)
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To: RightLady

And imagine if Cruz got 90% of the delegates with only 60% of the vote?

Trump would “sue”. And the fanbois would be all in a rage.


116 posted on 04/21/2016 1:48:52 PM PDT by Responsibility2nd (Sorry Donald. My candidates support pro-life.)
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To: Responsibility2nd

Right and the Trumpsters can’t stand these facts. Why was a comparison of these states done on the media. The never said a word about Cruz having any momentum. before NY all they did was talk about Trump.


117 posted on 04/21/2016 1:59:52 PM PDT by RightLady (God Bless the USA)
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Soiling Our Depends Cucks

118 posted on 04/21/2016 2:20:49 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Here's to the day the forensics people scrape what's left of Putin off the ceiling of his limo.)
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To: mkjessup

Jerry Brown met with Jim Jones? How bizarre even for the Moonbeam.


119 posted on 04/21/2016 2:26:39 PM PDT by miss marmelstein (Richard the Third: With my own people alone I should like to drive away the Turks (Muslims))
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To: miss marmelstein
So did Rosalyn Carter, who also met with John Wayne Gacy.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
120 posted on 04/21/2016 2:38:20 PM PDT by mkjessup (If you stand with Cruz, you stand with the GOPe, Jeb, Mitt, iSnarly, Reince & Karl. What's that say?)
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