Posted on 04/01/2016 8:41:50 AM PDT by Jack Black
There are only two choices remaining for how the GOP Nomination process goes.
It's hard to handicap who walks out of Cleveland with the crown if we go in with Trump short of 1237 delegates.
What we do know is that the party is being extra-crafty to put party loyalists into as many of those delegate slots as possible. Some of those faux-Trump delegates may well support Cruz, but it's more likely that many are Romney era or even older GOP establishment types.
Do you know your county GOP chair? Those are the type of people who will be deciding the nominee in an open convention.
I think Cruz's chances of winning the nomination on a second or subsequent ballot are pretty poor. He's not loved by the GOP establishment, in fact some say he's liked less than Trump. Having pulled off a great political coup, with the open convention, you can be sure that the powers that be will not settle for Cruz.
This will be the golden opportunity to seat someone they really like.
My guess is Paul Ryan is that guy.
My serious question to Cruz supporters (and Kasich too if there are any here) is: do you prefer having the GOP Establishment pick the nominee to Trump?
And, secondly, if you will stipulate for the sake of discussion that Cruz is unlikely to be the guy, who do you want the GOP Establishment to choose?
Thanks! That's a great comment, and does seem a plausible scenario.
In 1976 the #1 guy ended up winning, though. And he won on the first ballot.
Ford had 1,187 Ronald Reagan's 1,070 delegates. 1,130 were needed to win.
The equivalent scenario would be for Trump to come in with 1,180 votes and get 1,280 votes on the first ballot. That seems the most likely way for Trump to win now, rather than achieving his majority strictly on the pledged delegates.
>>>It’s not a contradiction but to understand the position we’re in today requires some critical thinking. Try to keep up. Cruz is being used as a tool to stop Trump. Period. He’s being USED. He’s NOT their choice for the nomination and he never will be. He’s just a disposable instrument of obstruction.<<<
Over and over again the pro Trump guys say Cruz is part of the establishment. He’s a lawyer after all. Those guys might be using him.
Pointing out the arguments the Trump guys use is not using critical thinking? I mean when Jeb endorsed Cruz, this place went nuts with.......Cruz is part of the establishment. He is (part of the establishment), except when he isn’t (those guys can’t stand Cruz) and is just being used. Let me get my tinfoil hat on so I can keep up.
I am not going to predict the future. At this point you are only guessing that he is being used so a third candidate can win the nomination. You might be right. But you might be wrong and a contested conventions boils down to a fight between Trump and Cruz.
A very long vanity when you could have just said “Vote Trump”.
And no, I think Cruz would win on the 2nd or 3rd ballot. Preventing Trump from winning the requisite delegates is mission number one because Donald would lose in an epic landslide to Hillary - and probably take the Senate and perhaps even the House down with him.
TLDR: Vote Cruz
“Geez...it’s like talking to a wall sometimes.”
I’ve been hearing for a couple of months from trump supporters that he has this thing sewn up. Just a matter of time. But he doesn’t have it sewn up and now his supporters are wanting help from Cruz to secure the nomination?
If this is a “movement”, if the great Trump is a perennial “winner” then he should have no problem getting to 1237 on his own.
Tom Cotton would beat Hillary, but the GOPe would still exist afterward.
I want Trump to be nominated so he can take down the entire GOPe when he is crushed in November.
Yep. Cruz is the eGOP useful idiot being used to try to take down Trump. The eGOP will NEVER nominate Cruz. They hate his guts.
>>>The equivalent scenario would be for Trump to come in with 1,180 votes and get 1,280 votes on the first ballot. That seems the most likely way for Trump to win now, rather than achieving his majority strictly on the pledged delegates.<<<
If the convention boils down to a selection of Trump or Cruz and Trump wins, I will support him. And if the opposite is true, I think it’s easier for a Trump guy to support Cruz (than say Paul Ryan or Jeb). The initial race started out with a dozen candidates and things were volatile. If we need to pick a guy in Cleveland, I think the only way for unity is to go with the top 2. Go with a third person and you will probably tick off everybody who wanted Trump or Cruz.
That's what I'm asking people about. Here let me list some names I've heard:
One could add any of the Governors who ran and dropped out, I suppose.
or even
Or someone who hasn't run and isn't in politics to try to acknowledge the desire of voters for an outsider
I must say the screen name I am responding to causes me to question what I see posted. The words above sound like a bought and paid for Soros snowflake plant.
Neither Trump nor the GOPe is acceptable to me.
There will be a rule that candidate has to have won 8 or more states. The combine Cruz/Trump delegates will ensure this.
So Cruz will be the nominee.
Nope.
If Cruz wins a majority of the remaining delegates then he will take the delegate lead from Trump going into the convention. If not, Trump will retain the delegate lead going into the convention. Neither is going to get enough delegates to win the nomination before the convention.
After the first vote, whichever of Trump or Cruz can win over the delegates pledged to Rubio, Kasich, Jeb!, Carson, Huckabee and the other losing candidates will win the nomination. The only way a candidate other than Trump or Cruz can win is if a majority of Trump’s and Cruz’s delegates bail and vote for someone else.
Since Trump had no ground operation in most of the states and was pretty clueless about the delegate rules, then there is a good chance many of Trump’s pledged delegates will turn on Trump after the first vote, but there is little chance that Cruz’s pledged delegates will turn on Cruz.
Trump supporters are now desperately trying to get Cruz to withdraw because it is the only possible way that Trump can win the nomination. Guess what? It’s not going to happen.
So far Landslide Donald has won 37% of the votes cast. The 63% of voters that voted against Trump so far are not going to be terribly upset when Trump does not get the nomination. On the other hand, more than 50% of Republicans polled say that they will never vote for Trump if the gets the nomination.
So we should just go home? Really? Cruz is kicking Trumps butt in WI and will in many states going forward.
Trump should be happy that there are 30% of women who don’t hate him and go home.
Some delegates are assigned by the local party. These delegates would likely be loyal to the GOPe after the first round of voting.
The other delegates are actually picked by the candidate and they should be loyal to the candidate after the first round of voting.
I don't know the percentage of delegates that are candidate picked and that are GOPe picked. It varies based on state.
Without that information at this point, I can't come to the conclusion that the establishment will win a contested convention.
But since you are so pro Trump explain to me how he finances his campaign. He will need to raise $1B and SuperPacs will need another $1B. He has said he won't self finance the general....he can't raise that much money.
You may be right. Let's say Trump squeezes through to 1.230 or something, on all the media's counts, but the first ballot comes and he only gets 1,100 votes.
I think that could easily happen. Delegates are "bound" only by party rules. It's not a criminal offense to simply break that rule and vote for someone else. Even in the electoral college there are occassional faithless electors who go against their state and vote for someone they are not supposed to, and that's an actual Federal election, not just a private party get-together.
No, we don’t. The GOPe hate Cruz, but they’re more than willing to use him to cause a contested convention. At which time, they’ll chuck Cruz aside like a cheap Trollope, and install their preferred candidate.
Just like the press does with guys like McCain....oh, he’s a different kind of Republican, he’s a moderate, he’s electable, he’s a maverick. Then once he gets nominated, they turn on him.
You’re fooling yourself if you think Cruz is getting over on the establishment. He’s Mr. Establishment, until they’re done with him.
Cruz should take the hint from Rove. If there is no nominee going into the convention, the convention won’t select Cruz or Trump. That ‘new face’ comment from Rove was a warning shot to Cruz.
The problem is that the GOPestablishment don’t really care if they lose to Hillary. As many of them have said, they would rather lose to Hillary than have Trump or Cruz as their nominee.
Trump won’t go third part for two reasons
1) He will not be allowed in many states Sore Loser laws
2) No money. He will no way self finance
Ted Cruz
It is a convention of delegates. The delegates are establishment people in the party even when selected for Trump or Cruz.
After they become unbound in their own minds, they will select someone who seems to be in line with their perception of their duty to the task they have undertaken.
God help us all.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.