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To: Jack Black

Nope.

If Cruz wins a majority of the remaining delegates then he will take the delegate lead from Trump going into the convention. If not, Trump will retain the delegate lead going into the convention. Neither is going to get enough delegates to win the nomination before the convention.

After the first vote, whichever of Trump or Cruz can win over the delegates pledged to Rubio, Kasich, Jeb!, Carson, Huckabee and the other losing candidates will win the nomination. The only way a candidate other than Trump or Cruz can win is if a majority of Trump’s and Cruz’s delegates bail and vote for someone else.

Since Trump had no ground operation in most of the states and was pretty clueless about the delegate rules, then there is a good chance many of Trump’s pledged delegates will turn on Trump after the first vote, but there is little chance that Cruz’s pledged delegates will turn on Cruz.

Trump supporters are now desperately trying to get Cruz to withdraw because it is the only possible way that Trump can win the nomination. Guess what? It’s not going to happen.

So far Landslide Donald has won 37% of the votes cast. The 63% of voters that voted against Trump so far are not going to be terribly upset when Trump does not get the nomination. On the other hand, more than 50% of Republicans polled say that they will never vote for Trump if the gets the nomination.


51 posted on 04/01/2016 9:22:33 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: Bubba_Leroy
You wrote: If Cruz wins a majority of the remaining delegates then he will take the delegate lead from Trump going into the convention.

Sorry, but your math is way off!

Cruz has 463 delegates today.
There are 905 delegates still to be decided
A majority of that (50%+1) is 453, 463 (Current Cruz Total) + 453 (majority of remaining) = 916 Cruz total at the convention.

Trump has 752 delegates today. If he won the largest minority (50%-1) he's add 452. 752+452 = 1204 (only 33 short of winning the nomination).

Trump needs to do just a little bit better than 50% of the delegates TO WIN THE NOMINATION outright.

Ted winning a simple majority of delegates from here on out is a terrible result for him, and make a Trump nomination likely.

Let's see what would Ted have to win to lead Trump in delegates at the convention and see if it's at all plausible? We know, already SEE MY POST #100 that he has no chance of winning outright. Maybe this is a better goal in his spoiler role.

So Ted is 289 delegates behind Trump today. So of the 905 outstanding he needs to win 289 to catch up and 50% +1 of the remaining. (This assume Kasich gets not delegates moving forward, so it might be a little more complicated in actuality).

905 - 289 = 616.
616 / 2 = 308. +1 = 309.
289 + 309 = 598

598 of 905 is 66%. That's a very high bar, but might be possible if he wins a lot of winner take all states.

Unfortunately, there are not many of those left.

Only South Dakota, Nebraska and Montana remain, none very big prizes. South Dakota = 29, Nebraska = 36, Montana = 27. Only 92, he still has to win over 500 in proportional states to get ahead of Trump.

Like New York, where he's far behind. Or New Jersey, where he's far behind. Or Penn, where he's behind.

So, this scenario, while not impossible like him winning the nomination out right is very very unlikely, based on the numbers.

117 posted on 04/01/2016 11:30:49 AM PDT by Jack Black ( "Disarmament of a targeted group is one of the surest early warning signs of future genocide")
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To: Bubba_Leroy
Neither is going to get enough delegates to win the nomination before the convention.

Well I've shown that Cruz can't in my POST #100, but you are asserting Trump can't either. Is that True?

The Nate Silver model shows him at 95% of his plan to win the nomination, he needs to do a little better than he has so far against that plan to win. (Cruz is only at 52% of plan, that's insurmountable failure.)

Let's go to the numbers!

Trump has 752 delegates of the 1237 needed to win.
That means he needs 485 delegates.
There are 905 remaining.

He needs to win 53%, just a bit more than 1/2.

That's actually Ted's magic number too, because (as the article and my follow up comments on the thread show clearly) Ted is just playing to spoil and force the open convention. Ted's real achievable goal is to win at least 421 delegates to stop Donald. That's only 46.5% of the delegates remaining.

So, I would say Advantage to Ted, it's obviously easier to win 46% than to win 53%, but I don't think it's at all obvious the Donald can't win 53% of the remaining delegates.

New York is a "hybrid" state, exceeding 50% gets you all 95 delegates. If the Donald does that he would only need 309 of the other 810 available delegates, or 38%.

That sounds pretty achievable to me.

120 posted on 04/01/2016 11:47:59 AM PDT by Jack Black ( "Disarmament of a targeted group is one of the surest early warning signs of future genocide")
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