Posted on 04/01/2016 8:41:50 AM PDT by Jack Black
There are only two choices remaining for how the GOP Nomination process goes.
It's hard to handicap who walks out of Cleveland with the crown if we go in with Trump short of 1237 delegates.
What we do know is that the party is being extra-crafty to put party loyalists into as many of those delegate slots as possible. Some of those faux-Trump delegates may well support Cruz, but it's more likely that many are Romney era or even older GOP establishment types.
Do you know your county GOP chair? Those are the type of people who will be deciding the nominee in an open convention.
I think Cruz's chances of winning the nomination on a second or subsequent ballot are pretty poor. He's not loved by the GOP establishment, in fact some say he's liked less than Trump. Having pulled off a great political coup, with the open convention, you can be sure that the powers that be will not settle for Cruz.
This will be the golden opportunity to seat someone they really like.
My guess is Paul Ryan is that guy.
My serious question to Cruz supporters (and Kasich too if there are any here) is: do you prefer having the GOP Establishment pick the nominee to Trump?
And, secondly, if you will stipulate for the sake of discussion that Cruz is unlikely to be the guy, who do you want the GOP Establishment to choose?
Nearly all of Cruz’s support on this forum is from Texas and they already voted.
According to the daily FR caucus, his support is dropping below 15%.
Cruz’s mission is only to block Trump by splintering a few delegates.
He will be repaid some how, but not at the convention.
If they are fool enough to run with him, he will lose worst than our last two.
The DNC can challenge him fifty times based on his lack of meeting the qualifications.
And what happens if Kasich also drops out and says the same. (Also not going to happen, because Kasich's kissed the establishment's back-side in the vain, delusional hopes that when the establishment DOES kick Trump and Cruz to the curb at the convention, they'll pick him.)
Even if that all happens, and Trump reaches the convention with 1,237 or more delegates, what is to stop the GOPe "neverTrumpers" from simply changing the temporary rule calling for 1,237 and deny Trump the nomination anyway?
I've got news, if the establishment doesn't want Trump and they don't want Cruz, they WILL find a way to appoint somebody else.
None of the infighting, backstabbing, and whining we do here on FreeRepublic is going to change that.
It's not a contradiction but to understand the position we're in today requires some critical thinking. Try to keep up. Cruz is being used as a tool to stop Trump. Period. He's being USED. He's NOT their choice for the nomination and he never will be. He's just a disposable instrument of obstruction.
I would hope that all voters look at the condition of the county and decide what’s best for our nation. Some will say “to hell with it all” and I can honestly say I may end up in that camp. But for now, I’ll take Trump’s nationalism over Hillary’s crime spree and Bern’s communism.
Just my two cents.
We see a lot of analyses like this that are based on the assumption that Reince Priebus is actually Clark Kent. He isn’t. At least that’s my opinion.
Also overlooked is the possibility that Trump, if he falls short, can still make a deal for the Rubio (171) and/or Kasich (143) delegates and fill in his first ballot shortfall. I consider this the most likely outcome for the convention.
But ...
There may well be established a “RULE” that keeps Rubio and Kasich for controlling/releasing their delegates on that crucial first ballot. Trump fans should be on the lookout for votes on any rule of this sort. Of course there is the possibility that there are already rules at the state level that could preclude this. I don’t know if that is so or not.
Also it is possible that Cruz could inherit the Kasich and/or Rubio delegates and actually finish ahead of the Trump. Somehow I don’t see this happening but it is a possibility that should be considered. I doubt if those votes would put Cruz over the 1237 threshold but they would make him the likely winner on the 2nd ballot. ‘Clark Kent’ would have to see this as a favorable outcome which I doubt will be the case.
Should Trump fail on the first ballot for whatever reason he still looks like he should be able to make a deal with Kasich + Rubio. VP and Secretary of State here we come. But, there will be defection from Trump in Round 2 and that favors Cruz, at least IMHO. It also assumes that my Clark Kent Rule is also true and that belief is not widely held around these parts.
In any case the Living In Interesting Times Rule seem to be quite applicable to 2016.
WHY ARE YOU SHOUTING?
If it comes down to Trump and Hillary, I won’t vote for either because I don’t trust either.
WHY ARE YOU SHOUTING TWICE? We heard you the first time!
I didn't say or even imply that. What I said is
Hopefully you can agree with that, it's simple math.
So my question is, for the sake of discussion, who else - besides Cruz, would you like the GOPe to pick?
There is some non-zero possibility that an Open Convention would pick Cruz on the second, third or fourth ballot. But I ask you, for the sake of discussion, to assume that doesn't happen.
Who then would you prefer the convention to pick?
Then Trump goes 3rd party and the Dems win again.
Cruz should take the hint from Rove. If there is no nominee going into the convention, the convention won’t select Cruz or Trump. That ‘new face’ comment from Rove was a warning shot to Cruz.
The problem is that the GOPestablishment don’t really care if they lose to Hillary. As many of them have said, they would rather lose to Hillary than have Trump or Cruz as their nominee.
“It’s not a contradiction but to understand the position we’re in today requires some critical thinking. Try to keep up. Cruz is being used as a tool to stop Trump. Period. He’s being USED. He’s NOT their choice for the nomination and he never will be. He’s just a disposable instrument of obstruction.”
The only problem with this line of thought is that if Trump can’t get to 1237 on his own, the GOPe does not need Cruz in order to take the nomination away from Trump. Same goes for Cruz.
Here are some facts that seem to me to be applicable:
There are 2472 delegates to the GOP Convention.
57% of these or something over 1400 are free to vote however they like after the 1st ballot.
Question: How many of these delegates do you believe are controlled by the GOPe?
Really, shouting isn't any more convincing.
Nope, we’re voting for Cruz to be the nominee, but go ahead and console yourself with this bit of crazy theory.
Geez...it's like talking to a wall sometimes.
Oh I understand exactly what you are saying. And I’m saying us Cruz supporters are in a tough spot, because we don’t want the GOPe picking someone else, and most of us sure as hell don’t want Trump. So what else should we do? Just throw our hands up and go home? Might as well if our votes are pointless anyway.
So I should just vote for someone I don’t trust? I’d rather stay home.
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