Posted on 03/21/2016 4:53:44 AM PDT by Keyvan Salami
Plans by Russia to pullout forces from Syria delivered a strong message to Bashar Assad, who recently took a major hardline position. Moscow announced an end of its military intervention in Syria as a success story from its own point of view, not Assad's. This, and other important factors, have accelerated peace efforts in Geneva, posing Assad as the "persona non grata", even for Russia.
Not In It For The Long Run
Undeniable is the fact that Russia, along with Iran's proxies, helped relieve Assad of definite overthrow at the hands of Syrian opposition forces closing in fast. Russian President Vladimir Putin is now coercing Assad to actually engage his opposition. Following an interest overlap in the past few months, the Russians are reminding Assad they don't share ultimate goals and that Moscow will not be in it for the long run.
With even senior Russian military brass taken off guard, Putin issued orders for the bulk of an estimated 3,000 to 6,000 boots on the ground to begin departing Syria. This has raised hopes for a political solution after the 5 year long lethal war. Russia dispatched its air force to Syria back in late September to shore up Assad's disintegrating military. Despite claiming to fight Daesh (the Arabic acronym for the self-proclaimed Islamic State) along with other "terrorists", a high percentage of the Russian campaign pinpointed opposition groups backed by the West, pushing them out of areas crucially and strategically vital for Assad's survival. Damascus sees this as a long run battle, starkly different from Moscow's position.
Rising Differences Between Old Allies
Despite restoring momentum for Assad, Syrian forces – backed by the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran proxy groups – failed to regain areas around Idlib in the north or completely besiege the rebels in the strategic city of Aleppo. Peace talks resuming allowed Putin to time his troops' withdrawal and claim the majority of Russia's involvement will wind down in success, pose as a peacemaker while horrifically bombing civilian areas , and ease dangerously escalating tensions with NATO member Turkey and Sunni Gulf states vexed by Moscow's military actions.
While a number of analysts doubt Russia will drop Assad anytime soon, this withdrawal does suggest the rise of dangerous rifts between Putin and Assad over the future. Assad's top diplomat taking a hardline stance on his boss' presidency being a "red line" annoyed Moscow, knowing it would disrupt the entire peace process with the opposition.
Iran Losing Big
From a military perspective, Russia's withdrawal is a severe blow to Assad, already relying on Iran to dispatch Shiite militias to fight on his behalf. The decision by Moscow to maintain the Tartous naval base and Latakia air base is merely an attempt to save face for Putin back home. This withdrawal highlights major divides amongst Iran, Syria and Russia, proving yet again that Moscow mainly sought objectives outside of the Middle East, including Ukraine and an ease on Western sanctions. Left in the cold, however, is Iran as the initial caretaker of the Assad regime who rushed to its support early in the war, and now sees all the billions spent going down the drain.
Recent remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the Syrian people having to decide what form of state they seek sent a startling signal to Assad. The message is Russia, now in talks with the West about its own interest, is weighing to either scissor Assad's wings to some extent, or gesturing it's time for him to go.
Follow Keyvan Salami at @salamikeyvan
This is a shocker!
Or I’ve been out of the loop for longer than I thought. The implications of this for Israel are not good, seems to me.
Don’t quit your day job.
Q: Why must Assad be overthrown?
A: So the MUSLIMS BROTHERHOOD can take over and help to make the ‘caliphate’
This article reads like it was written by the Turkish propaganda & information warfare division.
I don’t think it is anywhere close to reality.
This style of journalism is called “wish casting”.
The author has no evidence support the claims made, he just lists what he would like to be true.
This is a lot of BS. There are numerous stories around and no one knows what’s really going on or what to do. Kerry hasn’t a damn sane thought.
Great analysis.
Seems like there is some truth to this. Russia moving heavy combat air out. They want stability in the region and keeping their bases and oil deals intact. . Lots of, for the want of a better expression, balkanization, talk going on. With the Kurds gaining a semi autonomous region. Might turn into some kind of federation ?
The Russian boots-on-the-ground was bound to happen sooner or later, if Putin remained in power; the final straw wasn't the oil price crash, it was the US surrender deal with Iran's mullahcracy. Before sending in the troops, the Russians had to figure an endgame or out plan for themselves.
The outcome is, a Russian presence and influence in Armenia (something the US should have been doing), a longterm commitment by them to help build a Kurdish state (something the US should have been doing) -- each of those policies run counter to Iranian interests -- and only a short-term improvement in Assad's situation, and no real improvement to oil prices.
About 15 years ago, OPEC started to do its defacto pricing in Euros, in order to keep oil price-stable in Europe, a market that is 45 percent supplied by Russia; obviously that was to hold on to market share and make fine German cars affordable in the ME. During that interval, Putin's been trying to rebuild the old evil empire, financing it off $100+/bbl oil, in the aftermath of 9/11 in the US.
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