Posted on 02/29/2016 2:28:07 PM PST by Kaslin
So here we are on the eve of Super Tuesday, that momentous day when a candidate can win more delegates than any any other single day of the primary.
'The Republican candidates can win about half of the 1,237 delegates needed," Wikipedia tells us. "The two remaining Democrats are after 880 delegates, roughly one-third of those needed to win. The number of delegates from Texas is much greater than the other states: 155 for Republicans and 252 for Democrats."
The rules for how the delegates are apportioned differ between the Democrats and the Republicans. "For the Democrats," the Constitution Center explains, "about 22 percent of all convention delegates are selected for the national convention on Super Tuesday, with 11 states, American Samoa and overseas delegates in play. All votes are counted proportionately."
For the Republicans, there is a more complicated set of rules to select delegates in a "winner-take-most," and in a proportional fashion, for the 12 states in play. Depending on how well the leading candidate does, he can scoop up most of a state's delegates, or only about the same number as a third-place finisher:
The "winner-take-most" states account for 438 delegates, or 70 percent, of the delegates picked on Super Tuesday. Of the 12 Super Tuesday GOP states, eight states follow "winner take most" rules that require the leading candidate to have more than 50 percent of the vote among congressional districts and at-large groups to get most of the delegates. Without a majority winner, the delegates are divided among candidates who receive at least 15 percent or 20 percent of votes.
And that model doesn't favor a candidate greatly who is the voting leader, with less than 50 percent of the vote within a state.
This system provides a potential lifeline to Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, both of whom trail Donald Trump in most of the polls (except Texas, where Cruz is ahead). Ben Carson and John Kasich are both likely to get clobbered tomorrow, but Kasich, at least, can hope to do well in the coming weeks when big, "winner-take-all" northern states like Ohio -- his home state -- are decided:
After March 14, GOP primaries are allowed to use "winner-take-all" rules to settle their elections. In all, 15 states use winner-take-all rules, including Florida, Ohio and Illinois on March 15, and the winner-take-all states account for 36 percent of the national convention delegates. It is the winner-take-most states that account for about 37 percent of the national delegates, with proportional states and caucuses making up the remaining 27 percent.
So it's likely that we won't know who the Republican nominee is at least until March 15, and possibly not until the convention.
But here's a prediction. If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, the whoops of joy you'll hear will be from the Democratic strongholds. A Trump nomination will more or less assure a huge Democratic victory, and one in which the Senate and possibly even the House will be up for grabs.
Why do I say this about Trump when he is riding high, nabbing endorsements from RINOs like Chris Christie and staunch conservatives like Jeff Sessions, and comes in trailing a crowd of loud, thuggish supporters that B. Mussolini or Huey Long would have been proud of? Because, notwithstanding his noisy claque, Donald Trump is unelectable. Here is a man who didn't know what the nuclear triad was, who has lied repeatedly about the size and sources of his wealth, who first promised to release his "beautiful" tax returns and then reneged because he had been audited for 12 years running (why would an audit prevent the release of a tax return? It wouldn't).
As a businessman, he is thoroughly disreputable: a liar and a cheat. Then there is the matter of Trump University, a "massive scam," as Ian Tuttle put it in a masterly piece, a scam that has earned Trump three class-action law suits, two in California, one in New York. The New York suit alone represents more than 5000 people. "We started looking at Trump University," former NY Attorney General Eric Schneiderman said in 2013, "and discovered that it was a classic bait-and-switch scheme. It was a scam, starting with the fact that it was not a university."
As Tuttle points out, although Trump is attempting to bully his way out of the charges -- he has countersued some of the plaintiffs and has brought a $100 million counterclaim against the New York Attorney General's office (good luck with that, Don), it's not working. Trump himself, Tuttle reports:
... will have to take the witness stand in San Diego federal court sometime during the election season -- and because of the timeline of the cases, a "President Trump" would be embroiled in these suits long after November.
So one of two things are going to happen. Either people are going to expose Trump now for the reprobate that he is, or the Democrats will do it in the fall when he is the candidate. If you dont want a Democrat in the White House come January 2017, now is the time to wise up to what a clueless low-life Donald Trump really is.
Too bad the article leaves out the fact that the GOPE are politicians that are nothing more than liars and scammers that have consistently screwed over the constituents they are supposed to represent.
OMG that is sooooo found !
You need to lookup the word "unprecedented."
Romney would have been a thousand times better that that arrogant pos occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, but thanks to Diogenes’ ridiculous hatred for Mitt Romney he made sure many voters stayed home in the 2012 general election ant therefore guaranteed Zero’s reelection
“If we started voting in the candidates who won Iowa instead of the ones who won New Hampshire, wed be in much better shape.”
Yeah!
Who needs the other 49 states!
Maybe the nation can not have a general election and just elect whomever the majority of evangelicals in one state voted for? Sounds like an awesome plan?
I guess President Bush in 1980 was what you were pulling for, huh?
Sadly Trump will win the nomination and Cruz won’t.
Your comments on Trump being crushed in the General Election are exactly correct.
There is more dirt on Trump than the rest of the field combined. The rats have a billion dollars to spend on this fool and the media have stories ready to go after the primaries,
The poor trumpanzees won’t know what’s hit them.
The I told ya so (s) will be referencing posts like this when the con man goes down.
Not tears for the establishment, they deserve what is going to happen to them.
soon funnny (hate that auto correct)
Yeah and when he wins the nomination you can say hello to President Hillary Rodham Clinton
re: Your #84.
Normally, FReepers who are not scum notify others
whom they libel. like you did, you halfwit.
Romney lost because of ... Romney.
But halfwits blame others because they are Democrats
like you and Romney.
Romney was a coward. Like your not including
the one you libel.
The Dims are going to rip him to shreds. They are simply waiting. They WANT him as the GOP nominee.
No one in the GOP did because they didn’t think he’d get this far.
Wake up or change your freeper name it does not fit you
You're whistling past the graveyard.
All Trump has to do is ask the right questions about Benghazi in a debate, and both Hillary AND the press will fold like a cheap suit.
Blah blah more clutching and flailing from drowning candidates....
LOL, which angelic Democrat is going to do that? Trump will destroy them. But of course we know we can’t expect your support as Trump is elected President.
The Clinton's will have him Crying by Labor Day
Ted Cruz will be so hated his mother will vote for Hillary
You Trumpsters don’t make it easy for us Cruz supporters to support your preferred candidate, should Cruz lose..
just sayin’
Sadly Trump will win the nomination and Cruz wont.
Hardly matters, because Cruz would not prevail in November either...
Maybe none of the Pubs can...
Don’t sugar coat it Kaslin. Tell us how you REALLY feel.
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