Posted on 02/29/2016 2:28:07 PM PST by Kaslin
So here we are on the eve of Super Tuesday, that momentous day when a candidate can win more delegates than any any other single day of the primary.
'The Republican candidates can win about half of the 1,237 delegates needed," Wikipedia tells us. "The two remaining Democrats are after 880 delegates, roughly one-third of those needed to win. The number of delegates from Texas is much greater than the other states: 155 for Republicans and 252 for Democrats."
The rules for how the delegates are apportioned differ between the Democrats and the Republicans. "For the Democrats," the Constitution Center explains, "about 22 percent of all convention delegates are selected for the national convention on Super Tuesday, with 11 states, American Samoa and overseas delegates in play. All votes are counted proportionately."
For the Republicans, there is a more complicated set of rules to select delegates in a "winner-take-most," and in a proportional fashion, for the 12 states in play. Depending on how well the leading candidate does, he can scoop up most of a state's delegates, or only about the same number as a third-place finisher:
The "winner-take-most" states account for 438 delegates, or 70 percent, of the delegates picked on Super Tuesday. Of the 12 Super Tuesday GOP states, eight states follow "winner take most" rules that require the leading candidate to have more than 50 percent of the vote among congressional districts and at-large groups to get most of the delegates. Without a majority winner, the delegates are divided among candidates who receive at least 15 percent or 20 percent of votes.
And that model doesn't favor a candidate greatly who is the voting leader, with less than 50 percent of the vote within a state.
This system provides a potential lifeline to Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, both of whom trail Donald Trump in most of the polls (except Texas, where Cruz is ahead). Ben Carson and John Kasich are both likely to get clobbered tomorrow, but Kasich, at least, can hope to do well in the coming weeks when big, "winner-take-all" northern states like Ohio -- his home state -- are decided:
After March 14, GOP primaries are allowed to use "winner-take-all" rules to settle their elections. In all, 15 states use winner-take-all rules, including Florida, Ohio and Illinois on March 15, and the winner-take-all states account for 36 percent of the national convention delegates. It is the winner-take-most states that account for about 37 percent of the national delegates, with proportional states and caucuses making up the remaining 27 percent.
So it's likely that we won't know who the Republican nominee is at least until March 15, and possibly not until the convention.
But here's a prediction. If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, the whoops of joy you'll hear will be from the Democratic strongholds. A Trump nomination will more or less assure a huge Democratic victory, and one in which the Senate and possibly even the House will be up for grabs.
Why do I say this about Trump when he is riding high, nabbing endorsements from RINOs like Chris Christie and staunch conservatives like Jeff Sessions, and comes in trailing a crowd of loud, thuggish supporters that B. Mussolini or Huey Long would have been proud of? Because, notwithstanding his noisy claque, Donald Trump is unelectable. Here is a man who didn't know what the nuclear triad was, who has lied repeatedly about the size and sources of his wealth, who first promised to release his "beautiful" tax returns and then reneged because he had been audited for 12 years running (why would an audit prevent the release of a tax return? It wouldn't).
As a businessman, he is thoroughly disreputable: a liar and a cheat. Then there is the matter of Trump University, a "massive scam," as Ian Tuttle put it in a masterly piece, a scam that has earned Trump three class-action law suits, two in California, one in New York. The New York suit alone represents more than 5000 people. "We started looking at Trump University," former NY Attorney General Eric Schneiderman said in 2013, "and discovered that it was a classic bait-and-switch scheme. It was a scam, starting with the fact that it was not a university."
As Tuttle points out, although Trump is attempting to bully his way out of the charges -- he has countersued some of the plaintiffs and has brought a $100 million counterclaim against the New York Attorney General's office (good luck with that, Don), it's not working. Trump himself, Tuttle reports:
... will have to take the witness stand in San Diego federal court sometime during the election season -- and because of the timeline of the cases, a "President Trump" would be embroiled in these suits long after November.
So one of two things are going to happen. Either people are going to expose Trump now for the reprobate that he is, or the Democrats will do it in the fall when he is the candidate. If you don’t want a Democrat in the White House come January 2017, now is the time to wise up to what a clueless low-life Donald Trump really is.
And yet Ted can’t possibly win, and his folks are still posting the negative about Trump after eight months.
They already made it perfectly clear we couldn’t expect their support. Even Ted said he would support Rubio over Trump.
Cruz would fare far better than trump
I remember reading last year that Trump said he would get into the race if Hillary runs for President. I remember him distinctly saying he would do it because he hates Hillary.
Before I supported Trump, I was a supporter of Ted Cruz. I would not have supported them if I had not that great love for President Ronald Reagan. True, Trump does not have the eloquence of the Great Communicator. That great ability was crafted from years of work and great talent. I miss his Saturday radio addresses. I miss him greatly.
But I think Trump has Reagan’s thinking at heart. He too loves America. There is a line of thinking that many in our nation have voiced with concern over the years. In fact, I was looking at words by Ross Parot and saw the same concerns that Reagan spoke about some 40 years ago. Trump is one of many who have voiced that concern. A core of their concern is Capitalism vs Capitalism. The Democrats are Communist anti-Capitalists. Barack Obama and the Clintons are part of the Communist camp. And, I knew the Democrats are from a long line of thinking when I saw Bill Clinton in Oslo, Norway in 1969 among Communist organizers who held an anti-Nato/anti-Vietnam War rally.
I used to think that anyone who ran a business and had to make a payroll was automatically a conservative. Today, I am not so sure when I see some of the big rich flocking to fund raisers for far Left politicians. Obama has sure hit my neck of the woods for the well-heeled checks. I see Trump as one of that crowd, the “cocktail parties of power” as Sarah Palin calls them. However, I think Sarah has got into Trump’s mind and has made a born again conversion. They are good friends and I trust her to know that Trump is worthy of her consideration. I think Trump has woke up and realized what a fool he was all those years watching those millions go out the window to those corrupt politicians. Sarah must have burned his ears about the corruption of crony capitalism. And, I am sure he has got his mind straight about a lot of other issues that his association with the “cocktail parties of power” whose thinking filled his mind with toxic (and intoxicated) thinking.
Nostalgia has its time and place but, nostalgia is not enough. The challenge is now. It’s time we stop looking backward at how we got here. We must unite under one purpose. We have that battle between Capitalism and Communism to fight and a vision of God, government for the people and that torch of liberty that President Ronald Reagan handed to us. I believe with all my heart that, with The Ronald’s urging, God put his finger on The Donald’s forehead to be that carrier of the torch. The Donald, with all of his faults, strives for good and knows the path to go and how to preserve that torch of liberty for generations ahead.
he’s fearmongering.
Dems will gain seats, but it has nothing to do with Trump. In fact, it’s possible that with Rubio not in the Florida Senate race, it may hand the Dems one of the five seats they need for majority.
Note the dates on these articles:
“To win back the Senate majority in two years, Democrats will probably need to net four (if they hold the White House in 2016) or five (if they don’t) seats”
“While the Republicans easily took the Senate in 2014, they do not have the same advantage in the 2016 election cycle, according to political analyst Charlie Cook. “
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/senate-republicans-democrats-seats/2015/05/13/id/644310/
“The last three two-term presidents — Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush — all served their last two years with the opposing party controlling both houses of Congress.
“And the party controlling the White House has lost seats in the House in the midterm election every time but twice since World War II.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/republicans-rule-house-senate-first-time-8-years-n241126
You said...
“The People have chosen Mr. Trump.”
Who? Some in the GOP have but I haven’t seen were he has won the general election, yet.
His negatives match Hillary
The CNN poll was 300 people.
” soon it will all be over.”
That is what we are afraid of. The lessons of the election of Obama are being blissfully ignored by the blind who are following a huckster and yelling “kill the pig, kill the pig!”
How DARE you call me a “Trumpeter”.
It’s Trumpster to you, buddy.
So get it straight.
I demand an apology.
If you can't persuade 'em with facts, dazzle 'em with bullshit!
“If you can’t persuade ‘em with facts, dazzle ‘em with bullshit!”
Perfect description of the Donald.
and he used to beat their toy dogs, too...
New soap opera?
"As My Stomach Turns?"
And so then I will chose not to...way to burn bridges rather than building them. Trump may win the Nom, but with his scorched earth politics will have pissed off a lot of people, and you, his supporters don’t help his cause one iota!
And this coming from you guys.
Honestly, you have left no stone unturned to offend and badger.
Sorry, I really don’t care anymore.
His supporters are the main reason I will not vote for tRump. While I do not like or trust the Donald, I abolutely despise the way they have done their best to destroy Sen. Cruz. Had they just supported tRump, without doing this, I may have been able to hold my nose and vote. They rewarded his bad behavior and they are responsible for it.
Same here. His rabid, frothing fans here at FR have turned me off even more to the idea of a Donald Trump anything. Takes a thug to vote for a thug, I guess. And they’re more than willing to support his fascist, violence-instigating, anti-conservative crap ....even if it means pulling the plug on our dying nation.
No he wouldn't have...They both have the same agenda...They may each take a slightly different path to get there but we lose either way...
Last I heard, Trump was up, big time, on Kasich in Ohio. Who writes this stuff?
Best of the reviews. Thank You for posting. Sent this out.
you’re welcome
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