Iowa Caucus Predictions (Free Republic)

[the_boy_who_got_lost]

Let's make our predictions for who wins the GOP caucus in Iowa.

Name at least the candidate you think will win and by how much you think they will win.

[Jeff Head]

If the caucuses are below 150-160,000 then I predict Cruz wins something like 28% to Trump’s 26 0r 27%.

If it goes over 160,000 then I predict Trump wins it, and the higher it goes, the higher his margin...perhaps up to 30% for him and 28% for Cruz.

We shall see...and I may be completely out to lunch. But that’s how I feel and what I predict.

[Flycatcher]

Thanks.

But I'll wait for the official results.

Yeah, I'm no fun at parties either.

[Jamestown1630]

I have a feeling Sanders will beat Clinton, too.

-JT

[the_boy_who_got_lost]

Here are my predictions:

For the GOP:
Cruz - 25%
Trump - 23%
Rubio - 19%
Carson - 13%
Paul - 10%
Everyone else with less than 10%.

For the Dem’s:
Sanders - 45%
Clinton - 44%

[Tennessee Nana]

Frankly this is a hard one...

the money should be on Trump, however...

Going on 2008 when Iowa went for Huckabee (as Tennessee did also) and 2012 when Iowa chose Santorum (again as TN did too), they may go this time for a Conservative...

but we are 8 and 4 years on...

in 2012 Huckabee didn’t run but Iowa was still Conservative and looking for one with a proven record..and much the same voters were available..so Santorum who wasn’t running in 2008 was now the obvious choice...

The Romney types very rejected both times by Iowa...not that Trump is a full blown liberal like Romney..

Now in 2016, many of the older voters who voted for Huckabee and/or Santorum) are dead or unable to make it to the caucus (you have to actually show up)

How many remaining will syphon off their vote to Huckabee or Santorum again instead off Cruz who has made himself persona-non-grata to some of the Conservatives ???

With all the new voters accompanying their parents and grandparents to the caucus, how many will break up the family in the same room, and go with Trump ???

How many college age and high schoolers will for the sake of peace in the home where they are just squatting, go with the parental unit pick ???

Its anyones guess who will win tonight but I’m sure there are a lot of teenagers who just might have too much homework to leave the house tonight..

[The_Victor]

I have a sense that the big “surprise” is going to be how well Rubio did, regardless of his actual numbers. The party elite are not going to be easily dismissed.

[jjotto]

In Iowa, the party elite seem to favor Christie, which might throw a monkey wrench into the MSM’s plans for Rubio.

[spel_grammer_an_punct_polise]

“Faux and other MSM keep pushing the meme of unpredictability, trying to keep up sub candidates hopes and increase viewer ratings I guess!”

Those two reasons may be sub-reasons but their main reason is try to sway the election in the way that they want it to go.

I remember the MSM trying to say that the JC/Reagan race was ‘too-close-to-call’ on the morning of the election when even JC was all but conceding the election that morning.

[jwalsh07]

I predicted a few days ago that Trump, Cruz and Rubio will get almost the same amount of delegates. I will stick with that.

[almcbean]

Upset special:
1. Cruz
2. Rubio
3. Trump

[mmichaels1970]

Cruz +3

[The_Victor]

In Iowa, the party elite seem to favor Christie, which might throw a monkey wrench into the MSM’s plans for Rubio.

Christie is polling within the margin of error of zero. But the party elite will pick a favorite, and that candidate's showing will make him the "winner."

[sunrise_sunset]

Trump 29
Cruz 25
Rubio 20

Sanders 49
Clinton 48

[so_real]

I agree with you: the money should be on Trump, however, my gut says Iowa will respond to Cruz's ground game. Aside from the vote shaming debacle, Cruz's team did a phenomenal job canvasing the state. My eyes say Trump; my gut says Cruz. I'll go with my gut, but don't ask me to put money on it :-)

[Red Steel]

Legal Bookies over in the UK are giving 6/1 odds for Cruz. Or Cruz has 16% chance to take Iowa.

Trump straight up bet 1/1 odds as the front runner favorite.

http://www.libertynewsnow.com/vegas-odds-bet-big-on-cruz/article3328

[VanDeKoik]

Trump by a comfortable margin.

Rubio a surprise 2nd.

[JPG]

Trump by 5.9%

[jjotto]

Iowa has always been about ‘unexpected’ performances, especially since the winner didn’t get anything (until this cycle).

Locally, I consider this a Branstad test. Has the Iowa GOP-E regained its mojo, or has it become more conservative than it was even 15 years ago?

[Kit cat]

You are NOT taking into consideration the anger of the electorate this year it is unlike ANY other year conservatives have given the house and senate overwhelmingly to the GOP and they have given us a huge MIDDLE FINGER!!! Only their lobbyists have mattered to them there is rage out there on our side and we want PAYBACK!!! I want EVERY damned lobbyist OUT of DC!!!! MANY Americans want a DAMNED WALL we will see but this year is unlike any other !!!

[IwaCornDogs]

Trump, in a total romp

Carson, for place

Cruz/Rubio deadheat for show

The others ... Also rans