Frankly this is a hard one...
the money should be on Trump, however...
Going on 2008 when Iowa went for Huckabee (as Tennessee did also) and 2012 when Iowa chose Santorum (again as TN did too), they may go this time for a Conservative...
but we are 8 and 4 years on...
in 2012 Huckabee didn’t run but Iowa was still Conservative and looking for one with a proven record..and much the same voters were available..so Santorum who wasn’t running in 2008 was now the obvious choice...
The Romney types very rejected both times by Iowa...not that Trump is a full blown liberal like Romney..
Now in 2016, many of the older voters who voted for Huckabee and/or Santorum) are dead or unable to make it to the caucus (you have to actually show up)
How many remaining will syphon off their vote to Huckabee or Santorum again instead off Cruz who has made himself persona-non-grata to some of the Conservatives ???
With all the new voters accompanying their parents and grandparents to the caucus, how many will break up the family in the same room, and go with Trump ???
How many college age and high schoolers will for the sake of peace in the home where they are just squatting, go with the parental unit pick ???
Its anyones guess who will win tonight but I’m sure there are a lot of teenagers who just might have too much homework to leave the house tonight..
You are NOT taking into consideration the anger of the electorate this year it is unlike ANY other year conservatives have given the house and senate overwhelmingly to the GOP and they have given us a huge MIDDLE FINGER!!! Only their lobbyists have mattered to them there is rage out there on our side and we want PAYBACK!!! I want EVERY damned lobbyist OUT of DC!!!! MANY Americans want a DAMNED WALL we will see but this year is unlike any other !!!