Posted on 08/27/2015 6:33:28 AM PDT by Citizen Zed
Real estate mogul Donald Trump is dominating polls and capturing headlines in the Republican presidential race, but rival Jeb Bush is still the favorite of traders in political prediction markets.
While Bush has been eclipsed by Trump in opinion polls, the former Florida governor is riding high with online traders who give him a 40 percent chance to capture the party's presidential nomination, according to prediction market aggregator PredictWise.com.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio is a distant second with a 15 percent chance, and Trump has risen to third in recent weeks with 14 percent, according to PredictWise, which aggregates about a half-dozen political prediction markets.
Those markets, in which traders bet on the outcomes of various events, often have a better track record than polls in determining a winner in elections. Bush has been their favorite since mid-2014, said David Rothschild, an economist who runs PredictWise.
"Jeb Bush has been steady at the top at between 45 percent and 40 percent, where he is now. He certainly hasn't fallen off noticeably," Rothschild said.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
Wow a Rothschild predicting a Bush win. The elites are truly clueless.
Newsweek/Reuters...consider the source and move on...
So, online traders are the experts?
If Jeb is the nominee, I will either vote 3rd party or I won’t vote at all. Period.
Wow,I didn’t know that BS could be stacked this high.
JEB!—WALL ST.’S FAVORITE
Now that’s a great bumper sticker…for Trump backers.
No more rigged than the stock market, right?
A) I don’t believe Yebbie will be the nominee.
B) If he is, it will be without my vote, and I will not support him.
I’m with Levin. I hate the sniveling sneaky spineless Republican establishment rhinos like Graham, Bush, Boehner, etc more than I hate Hillary.
If the nominee is Jeb Bush I will probably vote for her-these Bushes and Boehner like people disgust me more than anybody.
Bad auto-correct problem in this article. Somehow “traitors” got auto-corrected to “traders”.
Same here.
Even if Jeb picked Jesus Christ as his vice-president I wouldn’t vote for him.
Same here. But it really doesn't matter what you or I do. Any 'rat will swamp any candidate named Bush.
The GOP tried that in 2012.
Romney Says He’s Winning — It’s a Bluff
By Jonathan Chait
Follow @jonathanchait
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney gestures beside his wife Ann following the third and final presidential debate with US President Barack Obama at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, October 22, 2012. The showdown focusing on foreign policy is being held in the crucial toss-up state of Florida just 15 days before the election and promises to be among the most watched 90 minutes of the entire 2012 campaign.
Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images
In recent days, the vibe emanating from Mitt Romney’s campaign has grown downright giddy. Despite a lack of any evident positive momentum over the last week — indeed, in the face of a slight decline from its post-Denver high — the Romney camp is suddenly bursting with talk that it will not only win but win handily. (“We’re going to win,” said one of the former Massachusetts governor’s closest advisers. “Seriously, 305 electoral votes.”)
This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Over the last week, Romney’s campaign has orchestrated a series of high-profile gambits in order to feed its momentum narrative. Last week, for instance, Romney’s campaign blared out the news that it was pulling resources out of North Carolina. The battleground was shifting! Romney on the offensive! On closer inspection, it turned out that Romney was shifting exactly one staffer. It is true that Romney leads in North Carolina, and it is probably his most favorable battleground state. But the decision to have a staffer move out of state, with a marching band and sound trucks in tow to spread the news far and wide, signals a deliberate strategy to create a narrative.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2012/10/romney-says-hes-winning-its-a-bluff.html
They are trying to create a narrative.
What if Yeb picks Jorge Ramos for VP? lol
“Prediction Markets: Jeb Bush Likely to Beat Donald Trump for 2016”
Wishful thinking or accurate?
There’s a lot of corrupt process in place to hand the nomination to the establishment candidate, even if he doesn’t win the vote. Colorado’s recent maneuver for instance.
Yep, I always go to Al Reuters when I want political advice.
Little Jebbie must be in REAL trouble to need Reuters to prop him up.
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