Posted on 10/03/2014 6:55:30 AM PDT by Enlightened1
A projection for the Ebola outbreak way back when it first started in Africa...
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
and
Now here are the numbers for the USA starting with the guy confirmed in Texas..
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6
> Ebola is spreading in countries which
> basically have no health care infrastructure,
> no hospitals, no disease control of any kind.
And the US will have the same lack of infrastructure a few minutes after the first healthcare worker is reported positive, and the rest go on strike over the utter lack of planning, prep and protection.
Everyone needs to be prepared to shelter in place for some time. And time is about to run out for obtaining supplies.
Do you make any assumptions that once having the disease you have a immunity to it?
The numbers are a future projection based on the numbers we are given today by the CDC and the World Health Organization.
The October 2, 2014 Susupected: 7157 Confirmed: 3953 Dead: 3330 source CDC
The World Health Organization said this Ebola is doubling every 3 weeks. This is because the Ebola can sit undetected up to 3 weeks. This Ebola is not taking the normal natural course that other Ebola did in the past would in the past.
Federal officials are working to sharply increase production of the experimental drug ZMapp, which many experts believe is the most promising treatment for Ebola, the Times reported Thursday.The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is trying to enlist Caliber Biotherapeutics in Texas to produce the drug, the newspaper reported, citing unidentified federal officials and drug industry executives.
Well it dies when it can no longer jump into a host body.
Which is why... we need to quarantine people.
Yep and they can even fly in now with no papers.
and
What they generally say is that once wrapped up from this.....you are immune. But I would question the idea that this won’t evolve and start to present different strains, which means you’d face it a second time around.
I’ve recently read that around fifteen percent of the folks in this region of Africa....have never had it....but are thought to be totally immune. The thinking is that they’ve had some type of other infection that made Ebola a non-player....but the research here is limited.
Generally, things evolve. It might not happen in weeks or months, but could take a couple of years.
You just gave the numbers for Africa, I thought you were predicting the number of deaths in America, are you reading my posts, they are very simple, for instance.
To: Enlightened1
So according to you almost half of America is going to die of Ebola in the next year and a half?
35 posted on 10/3/2014 7:35:30 AM by ansel12
You have to scroll all the way down the numbers. Here I will copy and paste the current U.S. projected numbers only.
Now here are the numbers for the USA starting with the guy confirmed in Texas..
Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero
-— Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI:3.47
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI:3.47
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47
This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47
If it’s 2.60
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6
I see your stupid numbers and asked you a simple question to verify if you are a fool.
To: Enlightened1
So according to you almost half of America is going to die of Ebola in the next year and a half?
35 posted on 10/3/2014 7:35:30 AM by ansel12
Since you can’t seem to post a yes or no, I have to assume that you are indeed predicting 140,000,000 dead Americans soon from Ebola.
You are correct about,
“Also I noticed you have 3 infections for September and 2 fatalities. I believe that totals should be zero fatalities shouldn’t it?”
It should start in October and not September.
It should read 3 and 0. Oh well close enough...
Good catch.
In an outbreak, the system will be overwhelmed in short order. Our health care system is intensive and inefficient. Health care workers will refuse to treat. The waste disposal problems would be monumental. People will be turned away from hospitals to go home and die and each of those will create another infection and death cell.
Only fire can cleanse but I wonder about that. The responsible thing for an infected person to do would be to go to some disposable shelter and die leaving orders for the shelter to be burned.
I doubt this can be stopped now.
I just heard that they have not yet finished the list of the 100 they suspect may be infected let alone to contact them. It has been at least FIVE days now that these 100 exposed and potentially infectious people (remember that the incubation period is TWO to 21 days) have been wandering around.
I feel more afraid with each passing hour and each new bit of news that creeps out.
I've perceived a fog on hard numbers descending over the affected west African nations, aside from what can only be described as anecdotal asides in a handful of mostly Western news stories, most of these repetitions of week old or more figures.
If this is an actual phenomena, it could be credited to the governments there being overwhelmed, negation and other forms of disinformation, or both, of course.
Because you have your ear to the rail, as it were, are you also perceiving a darth of reported, hard numbers of infection and deaths?
Whom do you look to for your reliable sources, other than the WHO, for example?
Well said and I feel the same way.
Deaths are going to lag new infections because the infection rate is higher than the death rate. You also have to factor interventions.
As such, the death rate will hover between 50 and 60 percent and then increase when you start running out of healthy people to infect.
Kind of a macabre related rate problem.
For what its worth, if many of these 3rd world countries collapse because of the Ebola, then it will probably invite a flood of infected immigrants here. Since we now have an open door policy and they can fly here too.
We will know for sure in the next 6 months.
I wish you did not seem credible.
Can’t wish this one away. I’m afraid people have no idea. When they do it will be too late. It may be too late already.
There are ALWAYS factors that no one considers.
These numbers are just simply war-gaming the current situation based on the vague data we are being told.
There are many intelligent people that will figure this out. If I was a betting man, then my money would be that the people will figure this out before the numbers get this bad IMO.
I understand war gaming and I take your point but if it is 50%, 25%, 10% of your projections it is still horrible but what makes it even more so.... it should all be so unnecessary.
The response is wrong and time-after-time I have seen that a mild response to a bad problem results in a bad outcome.
This is an open forum. What goes here can’t be taken back. Not all comments are responsible but almost all are from the heart, the expressions of what are still free people comparing ideas.
For all the furor over bird flu the response here is tepid. Most people don’t die from the flu. Most people die from Ebola. Probability x Consequence = Risk. This is much, much higher risk than the flu but there is no proportional response.
After the first nurse or doctor gets sick, we will not have any health care infrastructure. After you get a certain number of sick people in the hospital, you will no longer have any capacity to contain it.
Our healthcare system is not set up to deal with a pandemic.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.