Posted on 08/10/2014 12:46:23 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe
I have spent a little time compiling links to threads about the Ebola outbreak in the interest of having all the links in one thread for future reference.
Please add links to new threads and articles of interest as the situation develops.
Thank You all for you participation.
Very interesting. Thanks.
This little gem caught my eye:
“Sabeti says she doesn’t know if that’s happening yet. But the rapid change in the virus’ DNA could weaken the tools we have to detect Ebola...”
Maybe this is what we are already seeing? So many false negatives with deadly consequences.
I wondered about that too previously with no hard science to back it up.
False negatives are way worse than false positives. Way.
This is terrifying.
I think this thing just *might* be contagious before the patient is symptomatic. But I am not a doctor (or scientist), and I did not stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
What do I know? Perhaps that, or the false-negative thing is much more prevalent than the experts think. And going out on a very scary limb, maybe it is both. The virus is infectious before the patient is showing symptoms, AND it plays hide and seek with blood tests. There is a nightmare scenario.
In any case, something is distinctly different about this normally “stable” virus that “burns out” on its own.
Another false negative.
Lord...
Yup. Another one.
How long before we see those outside of Africa...
Interesting I heard on the radio this AM that the CDC is expecting at least 20K US cases.
Yep. And if Pardis Sabeti is right, there is no telling how or when the “authorities” will get a handle on this. Right now, it’s like trying to catch jello wearing mittens.
A group of researchers has published a paper in Science indicating that the Ebola virus is mutating rather quickly. Additionally, there are more than one genotype floating around in West Africa and the mutations are occurring in parts of the genome critical for testing accuracy (hence the many false negatives.)
It’s worth a read.
“Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak”
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2014/08/27/science.1259657.full.pdf
Summary/news release from Science (less technical)
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/345/6200/989.full
The world was within 18 months of eradicating all mosquitoes... and elite liberals freaked on DDT... So much suffering and death could have been avoided.
I was just digging more into that study you linked to, which was very fascinating. In layman’s terms, they were able to trace to the original source into Sierra Leone’s outbreak, which was a funeral of a traditional healer, who had contracted EVD in Guinea.
From women attending her funeral, there were TWO distinct Ebola viruses, which probably came from funeral attendees from Guinea. This was around April. Later in May, a THIRD virus was shown in the Sierra Leone outbreak. So, according to this research, there were at least three separate viruses in Sierra Leone at the beginning of that outbreak.
Very fascinating and frightening. This perhaps could also be why there are all these false negatives? Just thinking out loud.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2014/08/27/science.1259657.full
The news today is quite disheartening.
Dogs are asymptomatic carriers?!!!
A major study came out showing Ebola is mutating rapidly. And 5 of the 50 authors of the study have died of Ebola.
Ebola is not under control ANYWHERE it has become established.
The WHO is pulling people out for their own protection.
And yet the WHO is confidently predicting outbreaks can be stopped within 7 weeks in any country that follows their great new advice, and the number of victims will top out at 20,000.
Health care workers in particular need not worry. Just remember to wash your hands often, wear caps, gowns, gloves, surgical masks, and glasses and all will be well. Remember, Ebola is not airborne and only close contact can infect you.
Words fail me.
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/08/rivers-confirms-one-case-ebola-death-ph/
Sounds like a whole lot of ‘don’t you know who I am!?’ contacts to follow up with.
Thanks for the ping!
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2014/08/27/science.1259657.DC1/Gire.SM.pdf
Page 12 is very interesting.
“several suspected cases showed evidence of other
pathogens prevalent in West Africa, including plasmodia (5 cases), HIV-1 (2 cases), and Lassa Fever (1 case). These findings confirm that EVD can be easily mistaken for other common illnesses and vice versa, therefore highlighting the importance of accurate diagnostics. “
But the most important line:
“There is no obvious correlation between infection with malaria and
EVD, suggesting that a positive diagnosis for malaria does not necessarily rule out EVD”
So now I’m wondering how many other false negatives that were also infected with malaria in fact WERE ebola positive. Particularly since there’s some doubt about the diagnostic in use due to the mutagenic changes in the virus.
And that guy that died in Ireland came from Sierra Leone. Where all these mutations were noted. In particular the ones associated with false negatives. It was assume that he had Malaria and everyone was in the clear since his ebola test came back negative. If that was not the case in reality, Ireland will have a really big problem on its hands in a couple of weeks if he went to that festival ‘symptomatic’ but early and just took a tylenol thinking a a local brew would do the trick.
You’re Welcome, Alamo-Girl!
“City’s first Ebola suspect wheeled intoNaiduhospital”
Better hope this one is ‘just’ malaria.
“An 18-yearold student of Mahindra United World College of India, in Mulshi taluka, who is a citizen of Nigeria, was admitted to the Naidu Hospital for Infectious Diseases on Thursday night.
“The principal of the institute had alerted us about his deteriorating health on Thursday, following which we ferried the patient in our ambulance to Naidu hospital’s quarantine ward.”
Pelham Lindfield Roberts, principal of Mahindra United World College of India, confirmed that he had written to the state medical authorities on Thursday morning, requesting them to admit the patient at a local hospital. “He looked healthy after returning from his vacation, displaying no symptoms of the disease, which surfaced only over the last two days. Fearing other students’ safety, we wrote to the medical authorities seeking treatment,” “
Your speculation may prove to be correct.
At the very least, the indications of rapid mutations may explain the number of false negative screening test results for the virus.
It may be, also, that low viral loads present in the pre-symptomatic state are still contagious with more intimate contact.
There is a nightmare scenario.
Essentially, provided both of the above prove true, it would be about as bad as it gets from a containment aspect.
People would need to be isolated even before becoming symptomatic, just in case they might have the virus, and might spread it if they do.
Even if that was possible, an enormous number of uninfected people would have to be isolated in order to halt new infections--which might well cause them to become infected.
Hopefully, only one of those conditions is present, we know there have been false negatives.
That alone is bad enough.
That leaves clearing a person suspected of being infected back at waiting the disease out to see if it is there.
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