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The Inflation Predictions Were Just Wrong, And Now They're Hurting People
Business Insider ^ | 06/21/2013 | CULLEN ROCHE, PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM

Posted on 06/21/2013 6:19:51 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Remember back when QE started and we saw charts of high powered money going vertical all over the place and everyone who didn’t understand modern banking said that the reserves would flood out into the economy causing high inflation or even hyperinflation? And do you also remember how most of those same people also said that the only way you’d be able to protect yourself from this hyperinflation was by owning hard assets like gold or silver? Well, the inflation never came.

The most recent reading of 1.7% pretty much proves that we’re much more Japan than we are Weimar (and yes, even independent gauges confirm the low inflation story). And now the portfolio recommendations are falling apart as well….

It’s one thing to be wrong about the way banking works and the way inflation might spread. But most of these people were explicitly recommending a substantial overweight in gold and silver as well. And they’ve been annihilated in recent years.

Gold is down 33% from its 2011 highs. And silver is down a staggering 60% since the time I started referring to it as a bubble. These are massive moves and if you’ve been substantially overweight these metals in your portfolio then you’ve experienced substantial pain based on sheer misunderstandings by people who are posing as experts.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: inflation; investment
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To: SeekAndFind

I honestly didn’t go and read the article, but when this topic arises, I always go back to the most basic definition of inflation - too much money chasing too few goods. And nowhere TODAY is this more impairment then in an area that often gets overlooked when discussing inflation..........the STOCK MARKET.


21 posted on 06/21/2013 6:52:44 AM PDT by safeasthebanks ("The most rewarding part, was when he gave me my money!" - Dr. Nick)
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To: safeasthebanks

apparent, not impairment (sorry)


22 posted on 06/21/2013 6:53:34 AM PDT by safeasthebanks ("The most rewarding part, was when he gave me my money!" - Dr. Nick)
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To: MrB

Guess if I ever buy another TV, I may have to eat it. Does anyone have a good recipe for cooking a TV to make the TV eatable?


23 posted on 06/21/2013 6:58:33 AM PDT by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: jimpick

have noticed that too ... lumber is way up as is the cost of auto and homeowner insurance.


24 posted on 06/21/2013 6:59:48 AM PDT by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: Roccus; All

“With real unemployment and underemployment somewhere north of 13% and Obamacare starting to kick in, I don’t see wages increasing anytime soon.”

Had a Staff Meeting this week. All of the Managers and The Big Boss. We were basically told to cut the fat everywhere and we would NOT be hiring anyone full-time, even those part-time, loyal employees who are reaching the threshold for qualifying: ‘X’ amount of hours per week for an extended period; we managers give the available hours to the hardest workers, of course.

Secondly, we were pretty much told that 0bamacare will ADD $15K to the bottom line of every full-time employee we already have (close to 100 of us, and no splitting us up into smaller mini-companies, ‘cuz Mother Government is on to us...) and that keeping our jobs IS our ‘raise’ this season; we usually get raises in July.

This man provides many, many jobs throughout our state, full and part time. Things are gonna get ug-lee. I am in totally ‘hunker down mode’ at home and at work.


25 posted on 06/21/2013 7:07:13 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: no-to-illegals

First, turn it to the food channel.


26 posted on 06/21/2013 7:07:17 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: no-to-illegals

Maybe there is no inflation in EBT lines for essential. Guess the D.C. folks have those people’s backs.


I suspect that since they are not paying for it a lot of them don’t follow the price all that much...


27 posted on 06/21/2013 7:19:27 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

So long as wages remain nominally static, we have NO inflation......just rising prices and a lowered standard of living.


28 posted on 06/21/2013 7:20:18 AM PDT by Roccus
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To: SeekAndFind

Insurance: up
Food: up
Fuel: up
Education: up


29 posted on 06/21/2013 7:23:00 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: MrB

What if one cannot afford the food channel?


30 posted on 06/21/2013 7:24:04 AM PDT by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: SeekAndFind
Back during the housing bubble it seemed like the government was doing everything possible to avoid including the run up in housing prices in the CPI. Sure a house costs twice as much as ten years ago, but that really doesn't count. Now on the way down they use the drop in house prices to counteract the effects of rising food and fuel prices.

Also the only way the trillions the Fed has pumped into the economy hasn't driven massive inflation is because the banks either sit on the money or lend it back to the US government. If they start lending it out to consumers and businesses the velocity of money will return to something close to normal and the inflation dam will break.

31 posted on 06/21/2013 7:24:25 AM PDT by KarlInOhio (This message has been recorded but not approved by Obama's StasiNet. Read it at your peril.)
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To: no-to-illegals

This guy says inflation isn’t here, he must not buy his own food and gasoline.

I have another fact for him.

It aint over yet, The fat lady hasn’t sung.

Because it isn’t here does not mean it isn’t coming.


32 posted on 06/21/2013 7:25:05 AM PDT by Venturer
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To: Mamzelle
Food hasn't changed much either. Pretty much right on the 30 year trend:


33 posted on 06/21/2013 7:27:29 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: SeekAndFind

So reading between the lines, this guy basically believes there should only be government-sanctioned news about the economy.


34 posted on 06/21/2013 7:27:59 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Um, and gasoline? I feel the increase in groceries every time I shop. How about tuition and medical care? This is absurd. Economists can be such morons.


35 posted on 06/21/2013 7:30:20 AM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: Venturer
for me and mine ... inflation is here. I keep decent books on what comes in and what goes out. I categorize ... food, fuel, insurance, clothing. Costs for all have been going up dramatically. If my books are wrong, I'll eat them. Some of the percentages are double digit increases, thus for essentials my eyes, brain, and books would have to be lying or this author is lying when stating inflation is 1.7%. I believe the author of the article is lying.
36 posted on 06/21/2013 7:31:59 AM PDT by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: qman

You font need an economist — just eat out occasionally and look at the serving sizes and prices at your favorite places. I have watched beef tenderloin dusappear from menus Notice that a pound if coffee us eleven ounces and rising in price. Affluent academics probably have their meals provided by their post doc slaves...


37 posted on 06/21/2013 7:34:10 AM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: SeekAndFind

Crapolla.

Another over educated, yet bereft of real world knowledge, pinhead regurgitates the party line.

Politicians and economists running our country into the ground because they believe theory is reality.

Inflation, unemployment, the GDP. Simply omit the variables that hinder getting the result you desire. Then repeat this result ad nauseum until it becomes the mantra that morphs into fact.

The Soviets used to say that everyone could afford bread. In theory that was true. The fact that there wasn’t any bread to be had was always conveniently omitted.


38 posted on 06/21/2013 7:38:19 AM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s.....you weren't really there)
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To: Ghost of SVR4
That’s why a box of doughnuts costs $5.40?

Come on, that's not an essential unless you're you're a cop. Then it's a two or three times a day thing.

39 posted on 06/21/2013 7:38:31 AM PDT by steve86 (Acerbic by Nature, not Nurture™)
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To: no-to-illegals

If inflation were computed rationally, with a genuine desire for the truth, it would be a much higher number.

If that were done, then a properly computed GDP would probably be negative for the last several years or more. In reality, we probably have never come out of the recession.

In truth, without some serious policy changes or some unforeseen major event, we are in an indefinite recession. With the likelihood of turning into a depression being much greater than turning into a recovery.

So Orwellian in so many ways. And getting worse, not better.


40 posted on 06/21/2013 7:46:48 AM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s.....you weren't really there)
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