Posted on 02/02/2013 5:25:46 AM PST by Gefn
An early spring is on the way, according to groundhog "Punxsutawney Phil."
When the Pennsylvania groundhog emerged from his dwelling at Gobbler's Knob Saturday morning, he did not see his shadow.
"And so ye faithful, there is no shadow to see, an early Spring for you and me," proclaimed Bob Roberts, one of Phil's handlers.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
Anybody got Punxsutawney Phil’s accuracy record over the years?
At least Phil isn’t a denier.
They all up high here in SW PA, meanin' t'say .. a mild winter.
Tha's all I think I know.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTo9T96TFOA
Oh dear! Not very I am afraid. I found this in an article.
According to Stormfax.com, Punxsutawney Phil has only been correct approximately 39% of the time. Of course, long range forecasts can be difficult to predict for the human forecaster. For example, the 2012-2013 winter outlook for the United States was supposed to have equal chances to see a wet/dry and cold/warm winter as the lack of an El Niño and La Niña made the forecast rather difficult to predict
article is here.
http://earthsky.org/earth/groundhog-day-2013-how-accurate-is-punxsutawney-phil
On the other hand, today is groundhog day and Punxsutawney Phil will tell us about spring.
Its Groundhog day....again...
So given that random guessing should produce a 50% success rate, can we say that Punxsutawney Phil is misleading?
I actually trust a rodent more than any meteorologist who embraces climate change!
I know what I am getting with the rodent.
So-— just 6 more weeks to winter instead of the usual month- and 1/2 ??
Perhaps. But he’s kinda cute. And personally, isn’t he as accurate as the talking head weatherman on the nightly news? They never seem to get the weather correct where I live.
It’s all in fun anyway.
Groundhog Day, February 2nd, is a popular tradition in the United States. It is also a legend that traverses centuries, its origins clouded in the mists of time with ethnic cultures and animals awakening on specific dates. Myths such as this tie our present to the distant past when nature did, indeed, influence our lives. It is the day that the Groundhog comes out of his hole after a long winter sleep to look for his shadow.
If he sees it, he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his hole.
If the day is cloudy and, hence, shadowless, he takes it as a sign of spring and stays above ground.
The groundhog tradition stems from similar beliefs associated with Candlemas Day and the days of early Christians in Europe, and for centuries the custom was to have the clergy bless candles and distribute them to the people. Even then, it marked a milestone in the winter and the weather that day was important.
According to an old English song: If Candlemas be fair and bright, Come, Winter, have another flight; If Candlemas brings clouds and rain, Go Winter, and come not again.
General Beauregard Lee, the most famous resident of the Yellow River Game Ranch in Lilburn, did his job Wednesday morning. But Beau took his time in emerging from his "Weathering Heights" home.
"We made enough racket that he finally came out," Art Rilling, owner of the ranch, told the AJC.
About 200 guests weathered the blustery temperatures to greet the groundhog, who finally crawled out of his home to the sound of cheering and bell ringing.
Beau made his entrance at 7:41 a.m. and did not see his shadow. Spring is coming early, according to Beau's prediction.
http://www.ajc.com/news/news/local/beau-fails-to-see-shadow-predicts-early-spring/nQqGD/
Having a sister and son born on Groundhog’s day, It is important in my family. But......
The correlation seems to be with frontal movements.
If the front has passed, it will be clear and cold. If the front is just passing, it will be warmer but cloudy. The correlation prediction seems to be that if the day is clear there will be three more such frontal movements and six weeks of winter resulting from the cold trough. If cloudy the number of fronts till the trough recedes northward may be only two.
Like wooly worms, there is no real correlation.
Our family has a birthday on the day after “Candlemas Day”
We've had fun with it
Oh General Lee didn’t see his shadow. Staten Island Chuck didn’t see his shadow either.
http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2013/02/post_421.html
Time to loose my 10 winter pounds, I want to get into those shorts!
I never want to hear “I got you babe” again after seeing that movie!
Do you think they used the same critter from “Caddyshack” in this movie as well?
“insignificant little rodent”
Why did I immediately think of Paul Krugman when I read your post?
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