Party poopers: Most gold timers are skeptical of gold's recent strength

Marketwatch ^ | June 8, 2010 | Mark Hulbert

[danielmryan]

Where have all the gold bugs gone?

They would entirely be in their rights to be jumping up and down for joy, since gold bullion earlier today traded at a new all-time high. Read full story on gold's new high.

Yet they're not. Far from it.

According to the Hulbert Financial Digest, in fact, the average short-term gold market timer is currently allocating just 30.5% of his gold-oriented portfolio to gold -- keeping 69.5% in cash.

[danielmryan]

This item puts the doubt to an earlier claim by Robert Prechter that almost everyone's bullish on the metal. Given how gold's fared recently, and its new record high this morning, the skepticism Hulbert highlights is really unexpected. Not to mention encouraging for a contrarian.

[Travis McGee]

Gold could also go to a trillion dollars an ounce.

[sinsofsolarempirefan]

The only way gold is going to stop climbing and start going down is when the global economy picks up and the torrent of bad news about the Euro, deficits, impending inflation etc slows down to a trickle and people start talking more about good times returning.
I don’t see that happening for a while yet. It will happen at some point in the future, but not in the short term.

[RightOnline]

Touche’.

[NYTexan]

...if only...

[Travis McGee]

If gold goes to the sky, it means the dollar has become worthless, we’re in hyperinflation, and bloody revolution etc usually follows.

[padre35]

Perhaps, perhaps not.

I do think MBR’s will suddenly become quite valuable, ditto even scatterguns in your scenario.

(I hope the books are doing well Bro)

[Travis McGee]

We both hope not. But I think we can agree that the dollar is in BIG trouble.

[Atlas Sneezed]

the average short-term gold market timer is currently allocating just 30.5% of his gold-oriented portfolio to gold — keeping 69.5% in cash.

---

The deceptive implication is that short-term market timers are significant. I imagine most gold owners/buyers/investors are buying to hold it for the long run as a store of savings, not to flip it.

[danielmryan]

Actually, Hulbert sees it as significant for contrarian reasons: if gold timers are that skittish, then gold is not on the verge of a tumble. In the long run, of course, short-term timing sentiment is meaningless.

[padre35]

IDK, the Dollar, like America, is merely the healthy patient in the cancer ward, but I think we both agree on the fact that Politicians are stripping the dollar of real world value in terms of purchasing power.

That puts the US on the road to poverty as the norm with quickness.

[jiggyboy]

Goldbug ping

FWIW, I’ve held through this latest mini-collapse and continue to hold. I’ll wait for prices much closer to $1300 before I look for some obvious bell-ringing from the usual disinformation sources (Cramer, Forbes Magazine, Citibank, mail me for the list) to contemplate unloading and possibly going short.

Mail me to get on or off the Free Republic Goldbug Ping List.

[bert]

If you don’t have cash, you can’t buy at the top