Posted on 01/11/2010 5:59:29 PM PST by silent_jonny
Morning, EG! :)
My pleasure :)
See you all tonight!!!!
What happened to Gretchen Carlson? Or is she on vacation?
I think she’s on vacation. Juliet “always nasal” Huddy is in for her today.
It is a nice photo of her. Lacey has beautiful eyes--I don't know why she wants to look like a raccoon.
I don't want to know, LOL
I can't remember what Kara said, but Simon definitely put her on the spot with his comment. Something like, "you act like you've already won."
I agree with you, I don't get that feeling from Crystal. (With her health issues, she might not even finish the competition.) But I do get that arrogant feeling from Big Mike. And the judges always give him a pass.
Reggae Tim didn’t make your bottom three?
I like Juliet...I wish she’d be on more. Alisyn makes me scream and she does have the weekend gig so it annoys me when she subs elsewhere.
Sorry for the late review, but I have school on Tuesday nights and will be watching the show late in the evening this year. Last night actually surprised me in a pleasant way. There were none of the total train wrecks I expected, one WTF was that performance but no complete disasters.
Still, at the end nothing really changed in the overall scheme. The top 3 probably further distanced themselves from the rest of the contestants, followed by a group of 5 fighting for the last two “recording contract” position (1 thru 5), and a back group of 4 that are honestly just fighting for those final 2 touring spots to make some money.
On to the rankings:
THE TOP THREE – these 3 have stamped this competition as their own, they know who they are and it is absolutely clear exactly what type of album they will put out.
1. Siobhan Magnus – Paint it Black – I called this song last Wednesday and I was dead on in my expectations. Started a little slow to be honest, but DAYUM what a finish, and the glory note was unbelievable. The girl has it in spades, and she slayed this song tonight. One small critique though ; Siobhan honey, the 60’s called and they said to tell daddy they appreciate the effort but he can give it up now, they ended 40 years ago.
2. Crystal Bowersox – You Can’t Always Get What You Want – But you Always Know What You’ll Get when Crystal performs. She was not as good as some of her other performances, but not as good Crystal is still miles ahead of most singers. Excellent performance.
3. Michael Lynche – Miss You – I really loved this interpretation, and over the last 3 weeks Big Mike has taken command of the stage and has showed a vocal range that I doubt anyone knew he had. That Falsetto is BAD!!! And that is a GOOD BAD!!!! Look, the guy can sing, he is a serious R&B stylist, and the man has a shot to win. End of story.
THE REST OF THE BEST – I have 5 in this group that I think all have a legitimate shot at a top 5 position for various reasons, a couple are ahead of the others at the moment, but they all have potential to improve and surprise us.
4. Lee Dewyze – Beast of Burden – Lee is this years Danny Gokey, Elliot Yamin contestant. To be brutally honest, he is very limited vocally and he has no stage presence at all, but when he hits his voices sweet spot he is as good as anyone in the competition. He is one to watch out for if he continues to improve.
5. Casey James – It’s All Over Now – I really liked this performance, but Casey has a long way to go to actually be a true top 5 contestant. He is 5th tonight because I liked the arrangement and guitar; but he is even more vocally limited than Lee, and I am not sure he really has a true sweet spot to wow us.
6. Andrew Garcia – Gimme Shelter – See Casey James. Like this performance, but Andrew has limitations that may keep 6th or 7th as his ceiling.
7. Didi Benami – Playing With Fire – Didi is the other singer along with Lee that I consider a true top 5 contender, but I marked her down tonight because I just did not like this arrangement. I loved her voice, and she looked stunning, but the song almost put me to sleep to be honest. She just doesn’t have the grit to actually pull this type of song off.
8. Katie Stevens – Wild Horses – Katie truly has a top 5 voice, the girl has a 30 year old voice in a 17 year old body, but the same old Katie limitations were all on show tonight. At times she looked like a scared little girl, and at others she looked like a girl trying to be an adult. I really really want to love Katie because vocally she is one of the best, but there is just something missing right now. HOWEVER, one thing I did hear, this girl should seriously consider Country Music, she has the perfect vocal tone for that genre. Seriously.
THE ALSO RANS:
9. Paige Miles – Honky Tonk Woman – I really toyed with putting Paige in the middle group, but I am just not completely sold on her yet. I think she distanced herself from the bottom 3 tonight, but she has to have another couple weeks of good performances before she enters the picture for anything beyond a tour spot. The girl has a power house voice, but I have yet to hear her really connect with a song.
10. Tim Urban – Under My Thumb – Stones go Reggae???? WTF????? OK, the only reason Tim is not 12th is that vocally this performance was actually pretty good, but WHAT THE HELL WAS THAT????? Tim Tim Tim… ***Shaking my head in shock and horror***
11. Aaron Kelly –Angie – Aaron picked the right song for him, and I am sure a lot of people have him ranked higher, but the kids voice is absolute FINGERS ON A CHALKBOARD TO ME. He is nasally, whiney, off key on almost every single note. But, it was his best performance to date if that counts for anything. It still stunk, but I didn’t throw up this time.
12. Lacey Brown – Ruby Tuesday – This was just BAD! And this was a BAD BAD! Not train wreck quality bad, but still bottom of the barrel bad. If Aaron’s voice is fingers on a chalkboard to me, then Lacey’s is fingers followed by someone smacking be upside the head with the whole board. I understand some singers like to “warble” notes, but good god, not EVERY SINGLE FRIGGIN ONE OF THEM!!!! STOP ALREADY! PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD STOP SINGING!!!!!
Should go home – Yes I hate Aaron and Lacey, and I think they have no business being in the top 12, but let’s be honest here – REGGAE???? Are you Serious???? Tim Tim Tim, what WERE you thinking.
Will go home – This is a no brainer – he desecrated the Stones man, and that is an unforgivable sin. BUH BYE TIM.
Kara said virtually the same thing right before Simon reiterated it. It was disgusting, and the DO owe her an apology. That Kara is enough to make me sick...I’ve never seen anyone who likes to listen to themselves, except BHO...he’s at the top. Schmucks!
It was a gut-wrenchingly awful version of one of the absolutely best Stones songs. Plus her facial expressions made her look like she was in pain during the whole thing.
And the scream at the end - it was cute for her Aretha song, but it was just dumb here. Dumb dumb dumb.
LOL!
LO, ok I will give you the facial expressions thing, she does make some really wierd faces when she sings.
Another one that does that is Didi. She goes from cute lilting Didi to the sudden sneering axe murder from hell expression and then back to a care free smile in record time.
Bringing Down The House, i.e., folks who delivered a start performance -- NONE.
Solid, i.e., folks who came out and did OK, but not stellar -- Michael (nice modernization, but performance felt contrived and over-rehearsed), Didi (probably the best upside performance of anyone for the night, but still lacking star quality), Casey (solid, well within his defined style, but "safe"), Siobhan (beginning was rocky, ended well; passable performance but she can do better), Lee (see Casey), Crystal (see Lee)
A'ight, i.e., nothing really bad nothing really great; folks in this group need to pick it up soon or risk being voted out -- Andrew (just seems to be out of sync with the guy from auditions and Hollywood), Katie (great voice, but seems to lack performance instincts), Tim (I'll be listening to this on my next Caribbean cruise), Paige (she gets extra credit for fighting through the laryngitis, but that only brings her up to this level), Aaron (why do the judges insist on pushing skinny 16 year old boys who aren't ready for prime time?)
Go Home, Now -- Lacey (interpretation was awful, voice is starting to grate on me)
Overall Standings:
” Soibhan (sp?) is my absolute favorite though...she’s just amazing and interesting. “
Final 3
Big Mike, Shibohan, Crystal.
Final 2
Shibohan, Crystal
Winner Shibohan
Reason: She can sing the songs Crystal can, but I don’t think Crystal can do the same. Crystal is very good, and to me better than last years winner by a mile.
Shibohan is a unique talent
She was 3rd. Jordin Sparks won that year with Blake Lewis 2nd.
Mandisa was season 5. I think you are thinking of Melinda Doolittle, that came in third, the season Jordin Sparks win and Lewis was 2nd.
OK, I decided to get a little creative and look into the Dial Idol numbers. I totally discounted their Score, and just looked at the raw numbers and did my own statistical analysis. What I found was actually enlightening in that the way I did it actually predicted a singers vote off pretty accurately. There were a couple outliers, but it was actually pretty statistically consistent.
What I did: I took the actual total number of Dial idol votes a contestant got and then took a percentage change from the previous week. That actually showed me the worst performers voting trend wise and it correlated almost perfectly to the actual vote off.
As I said, there were two outliers and I will address them, but using this method I will make a prediction of what the trends look like for the current contestants and take a stab at the bottom 3 and vote off tonight.
Top 20 week:
Ladies Vote offs –Michelle, Haeley – Average vote change – +75.2%. Michelle was by far the worst lady performer vote wise, she had a 29.4% drop in votes. Haeley showed a 45.1% gain in votes, but her vote total was the worst, so her vote off was not an outlier.
Mens Vote offs – Jermaine, John – Average vote change – +29.2%. Jermaine showed the same thing as Michelle as he dropped 18%, and his vote total was lowest. Double Whammy. Now here is outlier #1, Todrick dropped 32.5% from week one but he did get more votes on DI than Jermaine. John showed a modest 15.9% gain, but his vote total was 3rd lowest. So, statistically Todrick should have been voted off but John was. Still it had the bottom 3 correct in vote totals.
Top 16 Week –
Ladies Vote Offs – Lilly and Katelyn – Average vote change – +45.4%. The bottom 2 was correct statistically. Lilly dropped a whopping 26.6% from week two, the biggest drop of any female contestant. Katelyn dropped 15.1% from week 2. Paige and Lacey had less total votes than Lilly and Katelyn on DI, but their change was +63.8% for Paige, and +50.2% up for Lacey. So statistically Lilly and Katelyn underperformed and were voted off.
Mens Vote offs – Average vote change – +60%. The biggest drop for the men was Alex, a huge -42.3% drop from week 2. He was also Third lowest vote getter, so statistically his vote off was dead on. Todrick again was Outlier #2, he showed an astonishing +235.7% rise in vote totals (Jermaines voters?) – BUT he was the second lowest vote getter, so his vote off, just like John Park and Haeley in week 2, is justified. The one who got the lowest vote total was Andrew, but his change was only -0.7%, so while the vote totals say he should have been gone, it was not totally out of the realm for Todrick to leave, and Alex underperformed much worse than Andrew.
NOTE: Saw an interesting trend that may come into play this week – LILLY and ALEX both showed huge upticks in Week 2, Lilly +156.9% and Alex +159.8% followed by huge drops the next week when they got voted off.
NOW ON TO THIS WEEK: Average vote change- -23.7% (this is to be expected as we went from 8 contestants to 12 splitting the votes). Statistically the bottom 3 should be Tim -66.3%, Lacey -53.8%, Katie -44.2%. Bottom 3 vote getters are Tim, Paige, Lacey in that order. So Tim and Lacey definite bottom 3, other should be Katie based on % drop, but Paige is bottom 2 in votes. However, Paige had the fourth lowest drop %, only -16.9% so she could be safe.
VOTE OFF PREDICTION – TIM URBAN – he had the biggest drop -66.3%, and just like Lilly and Alex he is coming off a MONSTER +147.3% gain the week before. That is the kiss of death. Lacey had the second biggest drop and the worst vote total, so she isn’t out of the woods, but the statistics say Tim by a mile. We shall see.
TRENDS – Aaron had the smallest Vote change -4.7% and he had the third highest vote total, so he is probably here to stay. Crystal and Siobhan have been 1-2 every week in vote totals, but Siobhan showed a -38% drop in votes this week (Crystal was only -11.1%) which goes right in line with Simon’s love her or hate her warning. Andrew stayed steady with the second lowest change, -9.7%, but he is still mired in the bottom half of the voting, finishing 8th this week. Other alarming drop, Lee at -40.1% and fell from 4th best to 7th best vote getter. Not a good trend. Anyway the statistics say (and have every week) that the battle is between Crystal, Siobhan and UGH BARF PUKE Aaron.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.