Bringing Down The House, i.e., folks who delivered a start performance -- NONE.
Solid, i.e., folks who came out and did OK, but not stellar -- Michael (nice modernization, but performance felt contrived and over-rehearsed), Didi (probably the best upside performance of anyone for the night, but still lacking star quality), Casey (solid, well within his defined style, but "safe"), Siobhan (beginning was rocky, ended well; passable performance but she can do better), Lee (see Casey), Crystal (see Lee)
A'ight, i.e., nothing really bad nothing really great; folks in this group need to pick it up soon or risk being voted out -- Andrew (just seems to be out of sync with the guy from auditions and Hollywood), Katie (great voice, but seems to lack performance instincts), Tim (I'll be listening to this on my next Caribbean cruise), Paige (she gets extra credit for fighting through the laryngitis, but that only brings her up to this level), Aaron (why do the judges insist on pushing skinny 16 year old boys who aren't ready for prime time?)
Go Home, Now -- Lacey (interpretation was awful, voice is starting to grate on me)
Overall Standings:
OK, I decided to get a little creative and look into the Dial Idol numbers. I totally discounted their Score, and just looked at the raw numbers and did my own statistical analysis. What I found was actually enlightening in that the way I did it actually predicted a singers vote off pretty accurately. There were a couple outliers, but it was actually pretty statistically consistent.
What I did: I took the actual total number of Dial idol votes a contestant got and then took a percentage change from the previous week. That actually showed me the worst performers voting trend wise and it correlated almost perfectly to the actual vote off.
As I said, there were two outliers and I will address them, but using this method I will make a prediction of what the trends look like for the current contestants and take a stab at the bottom 3 and vote off tonight.
Top 20 week:
Ladies Vote offs –Michelle, Haeley – Average vote change – +75.2%. Michelle was by far the worst lady performer vote wise, she had a 29.4% drop in votes. Haeley showed a 45.1% gain in votes, but her vote total was the worst, so her vote off was not an outlier.
Mens Vote offs – Jermaine, John – Average vote change – +29.2%. Jermaine showed the same thing as Michelle as he dropped 18%, and his vote total was lowest. Double Whammy. Now here is outlier #1, Todrick dropped 32.5% from week one but he did get more votes on DI than Jermaine. John showed a modest 15.9% gain, but his vote total was 3rd lowest. So, statistically Todrick should have been voted off but John was. Still it had the bottom 3 correct in vote totals.
Top 16 Week –
Ladies Vote Offs – Lilly and Katelyn – Average vote change – +45.4%. The bottom 2 was correct statistically. Lilly dropped a whopping 26.6% from week two, the biggest drop of any female contestant. Katelyn dropped 15.1% from week 2. Paige and Lacey had less total votes than Lilly and Katelyn on DI, but their change was +63.8% for Paige, and +50.2% up for Lacey. So statistically Lilly and Katelyn underperformed and were voted off.
Mens Vote offs – Average vote change – +60%. The biggest drop for the men was Alex, a huge -42.3% drop from week 2. He was also Third lowest vote getter, so statistically his vote off was dead on. Todrick again was Outlier #2, he showed an astonishing +235.7% rise in vote totals (Jermaines voters?) – BUT he was the second lowest vote getter, so his vote off, just like John Park and Haeley in week 2, is justified. The one who got the lowest vote total was Andrew, but his change was only -0.7%, so while the vote totals say he should have been gone, it was not totally out of the realm for Todrick to leave, and Alex underperformed much worse than Andrew.
NOTE: Saw an interesting trend that may come into play this week – LILLY and ALEX both showed huge upticks in Week 2, Lilly +156.9% and Alex +159.8% followed by huge drops the next week when they got voted off.
NOW ON TO THIS WEEK: Average vote change- -23.7% (this is to be expected as we went from 8 contestants to 12 splitting the votes). Statistically the bottom 3 should be Tim -66.3%, Lacey -53.8%, Katie -44.2%. Bottom 3 vote getters are Tim, Paige, Lacey in that order. So Tim and Lacey definite bottom 3, other should be Katie based on % drop, but Paige is bottom 2 in votes. However, Paige had the fourth lowest drop %, only -16.9% so she could be safe.
VOTE OFF PREDICTION – TIM URBAN – he had the biggest drop -66.3%, and just like Lilly and Alex he is coming off a MONSTER +147.3% gain the week before. That is the kiss of death. Lacey had the second biggest drop and the worst vote total, so she isn’t out of the woods, but the statistics say Tim by a mile. We shall see.
TRENDS – Aaron had the smallest Vote change -4.7% and he had the third highest vote total, so he is probably here to stay. Crystal and Siobhan have been 1-2 every week in vote totals, but Siobhan showed a -38% drop in votes this week (Crystal was only -11.1%) which goes right in line with Simon’s love her or hate her warning. Andrew stayed steady with the second lowest change, -9.7%, but he is still mired in the bottom half of the voting, finishing 8th this week. Other alarming drop, Lee at -40.1% and fell from 4th best to 7th best vote getter. Not a good trend. Anyway the statistics say (and have every week) that the battle is between Crystal, Siobhan and UGH BARF PUKE Aaron.