Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
1700
Or not. 1-2 count on Drew.
no
"Let's go Red Sox!! Let's go Red Sox!!"
Do we want him batting with 2 outs or less? That could happen.
JD Drew has a great golf swing I think....
Close - but no cigar!
I HATE thinking about some of the players the Sox will be losing next year. This is close to being a dream team.
Sure looks like a sweep.
Drew and his golf swing....
Likes the low stuff and swings large.
D’oh!
Ouch, that was a nice double play..
Hawpe Torrealba and pitcher’s spot due for Colo in 7th I think
Lugo took care of the pitching issue for us, no? Now, Delcarmen needs to get us through this inning with minimal damage so we can get to Timlin in the 8th and Paps in the 9th.
Offensively next inning Youk should be leading off with Jacoby and Shorty to follow. One gets on base then we have Ortiz to hit. After the 8th the pitchers spot goes to Ortiz’s in the order so no issue there.
That’s ok, you may have it easier next year - there’s a story out there that A-Rod is opting out of his contract, which likely means he won’t be a Yankee anymore.
Throw strikes!
I don’t like the idea of A-Rod coming to Boston.
If anything, you'd think pitchers would make the best hitters because they know all about pitching and can probably recognize pitches better than mose.
One of the greatest home run hitters of all time was also a pitcher - Babe Ruth.
It’s grand~ I’m unable to stop grinning!
never never never never never never
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