Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Okay, case in point here. Lester throws 5 pitches to Helton, gets a one pitch out then gets the next batter down 1-2. He has to make seven more pitches to close out the inning.
68 through 4. Maybe they get him through the 6th?
I agree. I’m a bit bored.
Good for Lowell...(perking up).
That sounds familiar.
Not all fastballs, actually: his cutter is almost indistinguishable; it moves down and away from lefties and in toward righties. Not as much of a drop with it as with the cutter of, say, Mariano Rivera, but still deceptive because there is almost no variation in speed from the fastball. I think he’s pitching very well.
*points at Lowell* He heard ya :)
Nancy Drew let’s us down.
Yeah but it’s 1:20 into it and we are in the 5th. Tomorrow is a work day after all!
Drew’s off the hook with me since his grand slam.
*L* I know. I have to wake at 6 to get hubby and kids out the door to work/school.
2-0 REDSOX!!!!
coulda walked V-tek to set up doubleplay (Lugo then pitcher due). Instead V-tek gets a base hit...2-0!
Tries to pull the outside pitch....
again.....
and grounds out....
again....
how many times we see that happen this year?
At least Tek comes through!
Sox are getting to Cook...I hope.
2 on one out; pitcher due—Lester maybe can bunt them
to 2nd and 3rd and leave it up to Jacoby?
If Lester gets a hit that would be great.
Lugo is going to get consideration for World Series MVP and no one saw that coming two months ago.
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