Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Thanks for the ping. My church friend from Bahsten was wearing her red socks earrings today...:)
Cook likes to work inside/outside away to RH Batters and pretty much outside to lefties. He gets DBs and doesn’t walk or strike out a lot of hitters. Makes you put the ball in play. Certainly a trick or treat pitcher but not so hot at home.
Sox have to be patient and make him throw strikes. Also, hitting opposite field and bunting for hits is going to be important. We beat a much better pitcher in Carmona. Have to use the same formula.
He should have a huge cash flow from that park. Selig’s Brewers are a major beneficiary of this welfare scam. He doesn’t “own the team” like a traditional owner but his family makes money off of it.
I’m wearing my 1995 Red Sox Eastern Division Champs t-shirt!
Been in Florida for over 20 years- wouldn’t really matter WHERE I live..I’m a Sox girl forever:)
There's a nice article in today's Boston Globe about Lester. He's a cancer survivor.
We need to root for a Rockies win. If the Rockies win then ESPN will give us 30 fewer minutes of pre-game for tomorrow nights Packers-Broncos game. LOL!
Ellsbury!
Is this the right thread....:-)
Stunned stupidity = medical term for the mental condition of Yank-off fans since game 4 of the 2004 ALCS.
Nobody around here has the balls to say it, but I will, you are an arrogant prick.
Why would you say that? He is correct.
Tonight’s a bittersweet night. It could be the last night of baseball until Spring. I expect the Sox to complete the sweep tonight.
Go Boston, wrap this one up tonight!!!!!
Only if your a dog. ;-D
House is clean, laundry is done, kids are in bed, and there’s beer in the fridge. Let’s get this party started :)
Who is this female pregame host? I keep thinking of Rodney Dangerfield in Caddyshack...”Last time I saw a mouth like that, it had a hook in it.”
There’s supposed to be a flight of 4 F16s from Buckley flying over tonight before the game.
LOL!!!!!
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