Posted on 11/07/2002 10:59:52 AM PST by ER_in_OC,CA
Here are the Senators whose term expires in 2005 (meaning elections in November 2004).
Senators Whose Terms of Service Expire in 2005
Democrats
Bayh, Evan
Boxer, Barbara
Breaux, John
Daschle, Thomas
Dodd, Christopher
Dorgan, Byron
Edwards, John
Feingold, Russell
Graham, Bob
Hollings, Ernest
Inouye, Daniel
Leahy, Patrick
Lincoln, Blanche
Mikulski, Barbara
Miller, Zell
Murray, Patty
Reid, Harry
Schumer, Charles
Wyden, Ron
Republicans
Bennett, Robert
Bond, Christopher
Brownback, Sam
Bunning, Jim
Campbell, Ben Nighthorse
Crapo, Mike
Fitzgerald, Peter
Grassley, Chuck
Gregg, Judd
McCain, John
Murkowski, Frank (elected AK Governor, will be filled by appointee)
Nickles, Don
Shelby, Richard
Specter, Arlen
Voinovich, George
Good call, nospinzone - I forgot about Ed Thompson, although libertarians usually try to distance themselves from Republicans. Wisconsin is a socially liberal state, but I think that many voters would welcome an alternative to Feingold's tax-and-spend liberalism.I wasn't sure what kind of libertarian Ed was, whether he was running as a third party candidate just because the Republican slot was occupied, or if he's been a libertarian for a while. Some Libertarians are such because they don't believe Republicans are genuine about smaller government. Perhaps if Ed is close enough policy wise, a promise of strong backing from the White House may be enough to get him in the race.
Ed's only connection with the Libertarian Party was his advocacy of pot. He became known in Wisconsin for getting busted for having a couple of electronic gaming machines in his restaurant (then a felony; he was acquitted, and the case caused having a couple of gaming machines be a misdemeanor). He parlayed that into becoming the mayor of Tomah. FWIW, his success was due far more to the lack of popularity for Scott McCallum than anything else, including his relation to Tommy.
With nothing set to be done about vote fraud, I'm sad to say that Slimeroad's (more on why Feingold's known as that below) seat is safe. He was never called on his slimy campaign in '98, in which he used the tactics he was allegedly against (indeed, claiming he was taking "the high road") along with some Madistan (what Madison, the capital, is known as) vote fraud to narrowly beat Neumann. As there's going to be nothing done about vote fraud until at least 2007, unless it's Tommy Thompson and we don't get hit with a biological attack, the seat's Feingold's until he tires of it.
Graham can't run for both Prez and Senate at once, so we could have another Grade A pickup opportunity. Unfortunately, he's a good candidate for president, but in a perfect world he'll run, not get the nomination, and be too late to get the senate seat anyway. He's a good bet to be picked as Veep regardless, considering his popularity in FL.
"His decision will be announced early next year, but there are growing indicators that running for president is his top priority."
-The Argus Leader, columnist David Krantz
Every time conservatives sit back and just automatically ASSUME victory, we tend to lose (just ask John Thune in SD...and come to think of it, I predicted Tim Hutchisen would win merely because his state was pretty conservative).
While South Carolina tends to lean very conservative, the Senate seat you're talking about has been "safe Democrat" for 30+ years. The South Carolina Dems know that Fritz Hollings is a very strong incumbant and will therefore be doing anything they can to convience him to run again. If Fritz gets talked into it, logic dicates that it would be an huge uphill battle to unseat him. Bob Inglis was a great candidate, but check out what happened to him the last time around.
Now, assuming Fritz decides to retire instead of going for Thurmond's seniority, then (and only then) can we assume the odds are in our favor. Even so, the 'RATs will still have a silm chance of winning. When you look at what happened in NJ and MN in 2002, it's obvious that the 'RAT party will try just about anything to cling to power. They have a couple of popular statewide officials in SC, and I wouldn't be surprised if one of them were "recruited" to run.
Inglis' lack of money forced the national GOP to play a major advertising role in the race. A state party ad criticized Hollings' record on welfare reform and used old footage of Hollings seeming to dismiss public opinion."
That's from the CNN article you linked to. A couple of factors why Fritz's career is on the fritz:
1. A lot of new voters have moved into South Carolina in the past 4 years, and more will in the next 2. These voters are more likely to see Hollings as an old fool (and too old for another term) rather than an 'institution'.
2. A lot of yellow dog democrats have kicked the bucket or switched completely to the GOP in that same time.
3. There was a Rat tide in SC in 98, when Jim Hodges, of all people, won the governorship!
4. All that considered, Ernest Hollings only won 53% of the vote.
5. Jim DeMint will be more than fully funded in 2004 and will have Dubya at the top of the ticket.
For all those reasons, Hollings is the most vulnerable Rat incumbent, and will probably go down in flames or just give up the ghost and retire.
Regarding your point about an open-seat battle, Sec. Education Inez Tenebaum is generally regarded as the strongest Rat who hasn't jumped ship. She's the ONLY Rat holding statewide office. But she's personable, a woman, and for education (well, who isn't?)
"In January 2000, DeMint announced his "American Independence Agenda" to provide Americans with more prosperity, security, and liberty. His four initiatives are: saving Social Securing and adding options for personal Social Security accounts; making individually-owned health insurance accessible and affordable for all Americans; eliminating the current tax code, abolishing the IRS, and implementing a national sales tax; and reforming the budget and spending process in Congress."
I was looking at the SC Democrat Party page and they seem to be pretty clueless in recent elections. The site is very openly liberal/socialist, calling Nancy Pelosi a "model" for SC, pandering to hispanics with an "La Traducción Española" section, etc. Traditionally, 'RATs win in the deep south by running folky campaigns and PRETENDING to be "socially conservative", while proclaiming they are the guidanians of the blue-coller "working man", etc.
According to the politics1.com site, there are three Democrat officials still holding on statewide office in SC:
STATE TREASURER: Grady Patterson (D)
STATE SUPERINTENDENT OF EDUCATION: Inez Tenenbaum (D)
U.S. SENATOR: Ernest "Fritz" Hollings (D)
That gives them a small base of power to work with. However, being a multi-term statewide official does not gurantee you any success in running for other statewide positions, as the Illinois GOP should have figured out this year when they ran Attoneny General Jim Ryan for Governor and lost miserably. If you say Tenenbaum is the most popular of the three, the SC RATs will probably find a way to get her to run. With the Senate 51-49, they cannot afford to lose anymore ground in "Bush states" and they are probably plotting their comeback in the south after getting their butts whipped this year. Graham's election in 2002 was a foregone conclusion and Sanders ran a good "folksy" campaign but the 'RAT party didn't even bother to help him. Hollings is a mean ol' entrenched incumbant though. Hopefully, your statistics on his even shrinking "base" will prove correct and SC votes will finally toss him after seven terms.
He's about 78 y.o. now and has been treasurer since 1966 so it's unlikely he'll be moving on to bigger and better things, unless it's some (well-deserved, we must assume) heavenly real estate, bless his heart.
Tenenbaum, however, has kicked butt in her Education elections -- voters generally make an education/woman/Democrat connection for some reason.
Bob Graham (FL) still pondering running for Prez./retiring/running for reelection.
John Edwards (NC) will announce bid for Prez on Jan. 4th, but there is still speculation he may make an evaluation in early autumn whether to swear off re-election to the senate.
Ed Schafer, possible challenger to Byron Dorgan (ND), not terribly interested in challenging, but Dubya made him promise to talk it over with him before making any decision.
FYI, Sen. Nighthorse Campbell has all but announced plans for reelection, but has not yet done so officially b/c of campaign finance or some such thing.
Tom Daschle is still regarded as most likely to run for prez, ahead of seeking reelection or retiring. John Thune denies receiving reported phone call from Bill Janklow announcing the latter's intention of challenging Daschle.
Orange County Sheriff Mike Carona is getting some mentions as a possible nominee against Barbara Boxer. But he was just elected to a 2nd 4-year term in June 2002, and may serve out his term before seeking higher office.
Speculation that Rep. Paul Ryan will challenge Russ Feingold (WI).
Former Rep. Tommy Hartnett and conservative Rep. Jim DeMint in the hunt to challenge Ernest Hollings (SC), who hasn't said whether he'll seek reelection; Rep. Joe Wilson says he's not running.
Haven't heard anything more about Even Bayh (IN) -- has he ruled out running for governor yet?
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