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To: BillyBoy
Oops, I got my info from politics1 too but skipped right over Grady!

He's about 78 y.o. now and has been treasurer since 1966 so it's unlikely he'll be moving on to bigger and better things, unless it's some (well-deserved, we must assume) heavenly real estate, bless his heart.

Tenenbaum, however, has kicked butt in her Education elections -- voters generally make an education/woman/Democrat connection for some reason.

157 posted on 12/27/2002 11:11:08 PM PST by JohnnyZ
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To: JohnnyZ
Alrighty then, here's my second installment of the analysis of the 2004 Senate Races. This edition will focus on races A-C.

Alaska - although she wasn't my first choice, we should give Lisa Murkowski every opportunity to snag the GOP nomination. She has instant name recognition and was supposedly a pretty impressive legislator in the Alaska House. She will be helped by her incumbency and party affiliation. As long as she maintains a solid conservative voting record, shows that she is capable of holding her own in the Senate, and proves to be a good campaigner, she will have a good chance at retaining the seat for years to come. Tony Knowles is still the 800-pound gorilla for the Democrats. This race will most likely be a toss-up.

Alabama - no worries here. Richard Shelby is expected to run for re-election, and he should win in a walk. If he opts to retire, then all bets are off. The Democrats' best hope is conservative Rep. Bud Cramer, but he passed up a Senate run in 2002. Safe Republican, for now.

Arizona - where's the outrage over McCain? He has been undermining his own part for almost three years now. Since the Democrats do not have any viable candidates (unless ex-Gov. Bruce Babbitt comes out of retirement), the GOP can run whoever they want. Rep. Jeff Flake is a solid conservative who, if well-funded, can stage a conservative uprising and defeat McCain. In any event, this seat should be safe Republican. But will it be safe conservative/

Arkansas - Blanche Lincoln is a strong campaigner, and Arkansas traditionally elects Democratic senators. It will take a strong, well-funded challenge from a well-known Republican to beat her. The GOP nomination will go to either Gov. Mike Huckabee or ex-Rep. and Drug Czar Asa Hutchinson. I have a feeling that Hutchinson will be the man for two reasons: one, Huckabee barely won re-election over a so-so opponent in 2002, and two, Hutchinson will be the White House's candidate. Can Asa make the voters forget about his brother? This will be an uphill fight. Leans Democrat.

California - can the Republicans elect anyone in the Golden State? Barbara Boxer, a weak incumbent if there ever was one, continually wins re-election over even weaker opponents (Bruce Herschenson and Matt Fong). I'm not convinced that 2004 will be any different. Right now, our strongest candidate among those running is conservative Rep. Darrell Issa, who narrowly lost the GOP nomination in 1998. I have my reservations about Issa, but he has a number of advantages: he actually wants to run (unlike Dreier, Cox, Rice, Bono, and maybe Rosario Marin), he will be able to energize conservatives, and, most importantly, he has run in a Senate primary once before. If U.S. Treasurer Marin opts to run, then she will likely be the frontrunner, but it looks like a Boxer vs. Issa race right now. If he doesn't screw up a la Bill Simon, I think that Issa has a decent shot of ousting Boxer. For now, this state Leans Democrat.

Colorado - Assuming he runs again, Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (the only minority in the U.S. Senate) should coast to re-election, although he will have to fight off a primary challenge from Rep. Tom Tancredo, an immigration hawk. Rep. Mark Udall is the strongest candidate for the Dems, but he passed up a Senate run in 2002. This state strongly leans GOP. If Campbell retires, the nomination will most likely go to either Rep. Scott McInnis or state Treasurer Mike Coffman. Safe GOP.

Connecticut - not much hope here, unless popular Sen. Chris Dodd retires; state GOP chairman Chris DePino looks like the sacrificial lamb this time around. If Dodd does retire, then liberal GOP Rep. Chris Shays will likely face liberal DEM Rep. Rosa DeLauro, a race which Shays will lose. The only hope here is if Dodd retires, DeLauro decides not to run, and Gov. John Rowland decides to run. Safe Democrat.
158 posted on 12/30/2002 11:31:26 AM PST by Jeb08
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