Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
Thanks Godzilla
HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.
Globalism / Great Reset –
AB 495 is formerly called “the Family Preparedness Act of 2025” and is authored by Democratic Assemblywoman Celeste Rodriguez. The bill would essentially allow an adult, who is not required to be a relative, to pick up a child from school or daycare. All they have to know is the child’s name and birthday, fill out an eight-question affidavit, say that they tried to reach out to the parents, and leave with the child—no proof required. It also allows that adult to make medical decisions on the child’s behalf.
OBSERVATION - Key info at link. One of the overarching goals of globalist and communists in general is to destroy the nuclear family and remove any control of children by their parents. This bill, should it pass endangers parental rights in a massive way.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
(FO) According to a senior police source, the FBI is leading an investigation into four previously undisclosed break-ins at Tennessee National Guard armories in late 2024. The four break-ins took place over a seven week span and thieves stole night vision and thermal devices, laser target designators, and other equipment. According to a confidential memo, evidence suggests that the thieves had help from an insider.
OBSERVATION - Not much on the open media on this yet. Items taken are important to covert / night operations.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Trump signs Pentagon directive to begin using military force against Latin American drug cartels — NYT
Trump’s clandestine directive orders the Pentagon to deploy military force, possibly on foreign soil, marking a drastic shift from law enforcement to military-led operations.
OBSERVATION - Not sure how well this will play out. Cartels may choose to start attacking on US soil in response, especially given the large numbers of central American based illegals in country .
MORE UNDER INTERNATIONAL GENERAL
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
According to a federal government memo, the Trump administration is finalizing the removal of a Biden government-era policy by directing federal agencies to scrub employees’ COVID-19 vaccine status from their records. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) is set to issue a directive instructing agencies to delete any data related to vaccine compliance, exemption requests, or noncompliance with mandates.The guidance also prohibits agencies from considering an individual’s COVID-19 vaccine status in hiring or employment decisions. “Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, we’re making sure the excesses of that era do not have lingering effects on federal workers,” OPM Director Scott Kupor stated.
Biden’s original Executive Order, issued shortly after he took office in 2021, required federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Following the revocation, OPM issued guidance advising agencies to ensure that job postings no longer included compliance with the rescinded mandate as a requirement.
OBSERVATION - Fortunately I retired before biden’s memo came out. It was another piece of govt tyranny that biden/deep state used to put the screws to Americans that was parallel in the private sector
POLITICAL FRONT –
(FO) President Donald Trump said he ordered the Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new Census which would exclude illegal aliens.
Biden-era Census Director Rob Santos resigned in February, and Trump has not yet nominated a replacement.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) quietly introduced the Making American Elections Great Again Act in July, which would allow the Trump administration to conduct a mid-decade census and only count U.S. citizens for apportionment of House seats and Electoral Votes.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller said that Democrats stood to make sizable gains if illegals are again counted in the census, and added that the 2020 Census gave them extra seats. “They [Democrats] stole 20 or 30 House seats by counting illegal aliens in the census, and now you have Democrats talking about, ‘Oh, Republicans can’t change their congressional maps!’ You have literally brought invaders into this country by the tens of millions to rig the results of the census, and the apportionment of congressional seats.”
OBSERVATION - Has the potential of a nuclear weapon against democrats. With illegals counted, states with high concentrations - California for one - gained districts over states without numerous illegals. This could titanically shift the distribution of vote to red states bigly.
***
Governor Greg Abbott (R) said the FBI is assisting the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) return Texas Democrats to the state Capitol. Abbott added that any Texas Democrats who received benefits for breaking the Texas House quorum will face removal from office and potential bribery charges.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has just filed with the Supreme Court to declare 13 Democrat House seats VACANT
“The rogue Democrat legislators who fled the state have abandoned their duties, leaving their seats vacant,” Paxton said
“These cowards deliberately sabotaged the constitutional process and violated the oath they swore to uphold.”
“I have asked the Texas Supreme Court to declare what has been clear from the beginning: that the runaway members have officially vacated their offices in the Texas House.”
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
U.S. President Donald J. Trump has directed the Pentagon to prepare options for use of military force against several drug cartels in Latin America that were designated as foreign terrorist organizations earlier this year, according to a senior U.S. official who spoke with the Wall Street Journal.
Options under discussion are said to be focused on special forces operations, intelligence support and precision targeting, with any military action to be coordinated with Mexico as well as other foreign partners in Central and South America.
During a phone call in April, President Trump reportedly pressured Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to allow the U.S. military to become more involved in the fight against the country’s drug cartels, according to people familiar with the discussions. U.S. and Mexican officials are currently drafting an agreement that would include intelligence sharing and enforcement coordination in acting against the cartels. Sheinbaum, who has said she expects it to be signed soon, has emphasized that “respecting our territory” is essential to the deal with the United States.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1954051528630628596?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
TRUMP Watch –
Trump and Putin to meet next Friday, Aug 15th in Alaska.
There will be more details in the coming days, but right now putin et al continues reiterate his demand for total control of eastern Ukraine as well as overarching influence on the government of what would remain “Ukraine”. Ukraine (and many former soviet union countries) are saying “Neyt” to effectively awarding Russia land for its aggression. See Ukraine below for further discussion.
Illegal Immigration –
Owner of “Trump Burgers” being deported for overstaying his tourist visa.
China -
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) warned the Philippines not to get involved in China’s “internal affairs” with Taiwan after Philippine President Marcos’ comments this week. “Geographical proximity and large overseas populations are not excuses for interfering in others’ internal affairs,” per the MFA.
Japan –
Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) will conduct its largest-ever live exercise with the U.S. Marine Corps next month, simulating the defense of remote islands across multiple regions of the country.
According to the GSDF, the exercise—known as “Resolute Dragon”—will run from September 11 to 25, taking place in Kyushu, Okinawa, Hokkaido, and on Iwo Jima in the Ogasawara Islands.
The drill will bring together about 12,000 personnel from Japan’s Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces, alongside roughly 1,900 troops from the U.S. Marine Corps and other American units.
https://defence-blog.com/japan-u-s-marines-to-hold-record-size-joint-drill/
OBSERVATION - Growth in exercise due mostly to the growing threat from China in the region.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
See Ukraine below on observations regarding the Ukraine war and bargaining issues.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 47 Shahed and other UAVs plus two Iskander-K cruise missiles. Targets included frontline areas in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions, and missiles struck Dnipro. Ukrainian air defenses downed one Iskander-K and 16 drones, while 31 UAV impacts were recorded at 15 locations.
Russian losses per 09/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+940 men
+5 tanks
+1 AFVs
+41 artillery
+1 AD system
This morning, Ukrainian attack drones successfully penetrated more than 1200 km into Russian airspace, successfully striking a key Russian logistics facility in Nizhnekamsk a Shahed storage terminal in Kzylyul, Tatarstan, hitting a logistics hub with ready-to-use drones and foreign components.
Summary —
In light of the developing potential meeting between Trump and putin, the following assessment by ISW does better than me in outlining the situation on the ground.
Putin is likely attempting to frame Russia’s seizure of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts as inevitable in order to push Ukraine and the West to capitulate to Kremlin demands. Russia’s occupation of the four oblasts is neither inevitable nor imminent, as Russian forces will face serious operational obstacles in what are likely to be multi-year endeavors.
ISW assesses that Russia has yet to seize roughly 6,500 square kilometers of Donetsk Oblast, or about 25 percent of the region.
Russian advances aimed at enveloping Pokrovsk have accelerated in recent weeks, but Russian forces have spent the last 18 months trying to seize an area of about 30 square kilometers.
Russian forces have been fighting to seize Chasiv Yar (pre-war population of 12,000) since April 2024, and it took Russian forces 26 months to advance 11 kilometers from western Bakhmut to western Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces in the Chasiv Yar and Toretsk directions are increasingly threatening the southern tip of Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast at Kostyantynivka.
Kostyantynivka is roughly 30 kilometers from Slovyansk, the northern tip of the fortress belt, and the cities in the fortress belt (Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk) collectively had a pre-war population of roughly 373,000.
Russian forces have not demonstrated the capacity to seize cities of this size since mid-2022, and ISW continues to assess that the seizure of the fortress belt will be a difficult, multiyear effort.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1953844108574777842?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Future Russian operations to seize the entirety of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts will require significant river crossing operations that Russian forces have historically struggled to complete since 2022.
Russian forces still have to seize roughly 7,200 square kilometers of Zaporizhia Oblast (about 26 percent of the region) and roughly 7,000 square kilometers in Kherson Oblast (about 26 percent of the region).
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1953871330031313177?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
As they note, Russia is struggling and expending a lot of money, people and equipment for the limited gains. I can’t read Trump’s mind and cannot conceive Ukraine giving up a state like Donetsk when Russia only controls a small fraction of the area.
Now from Ukraine’s view, losing land is a non-starter and Ukraine’s president said he is ready for talks, but warned against “stillborn decisions” made without Kyiv.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said his country deserves a “just peace” based on international law and respect for territorial integrity.
Sybiha was responding to media reports that US-Russian peace talks are considering asking Kyiv to cede control of the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk to Moscow.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already said the plans are unworkable, labeling them “stillborn decisions” by the US and Russian sides.
Sybiha said: “Russia must not be rewarded for starting this war,” lamenting that the Kremlin “continues its terror against civilians, ignores deadlines, and shows no genuine interest in ending the war.”
He said Kyiv remains open to “meaningful dialogue and real solutions negotiated together with Ukraine.”
IMHO, its anyone’s guess who’s gonna blink. Should the fighting continue, the constant assessment is that Russia is facing multi-year efforts to obtain the territories it demands. Russia doesn’t have multi years, and generally assessment is that 2026 Russia faces steep obstacles in sustaining the current level of operations.
Europe / NATO General –
Baltic leaders have condemned efforts to pressure Ukraine into giving up territory, warning that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia could be next, the Financial Times reports. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said, “If borders can be changed by force, no one can feel safe. Sovereignty and territorial integrity are cornerstones of global stability. We will not tolerate aggression in Ukraine or anywhere else.”
OBSERVATION - Former Soviet Union nations know the terror putin and a resurrected “soviet” Russia pose.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel intensifies bombing around Gaza City
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israel prepositioning forces for the next stage of fighting in Gaza
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Kinda abbreviated Israel section this morning. Israel moving forward with plans to capture Gaza City and the rest of Gaza as necessary to obtain the surrender and destruction of Hamas and release of hostages.
On the other side, Hamas’ video treatment of hostages from released videos have silenced for the moment the anti-Israeli bleats of European supporters. Israel will face a massive PR effort against its next phase in Gaza.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
In shocking news, it has been announced that Trump has brokered a peace accord/deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In it the US is moving to strengthen cooperation in energy, trade, and technology, including artificial intelligence.
Azerbaijan’s Aliyev, Trump, and Armenia’s Pashinyan.
“They fought for 35 years, now they are friends,” Trump says.
OBSERVATION - Clearly coming from out of the blue.
Thanks Godzilla.
HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time. Going to try to catch up today.
Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
Iman Abdul, a former youth organizer for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, was arrested for urging her 25,000 followers to “attack” a NYC high school because Jewish students attend it. Abdul, 27, an organizer for AOC, has been arrested & charged with making a terroristic threat, acting in a manner injurious to a child, aggravated harassment, and making a threat of mass harm
She posted the school’s location and captioned it with “attack… all attend here.”
OBSERVATION - The hamas/jihadic front developing under CW2 conditions continues to grow. Remember AOC is not your ‘regular’ democrat, but a member of the Democratic Socialists of America.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Considerable squealing in the MSM over the full on imposition of tariffs, everything from tomato shortages to coffee price increases. We’ll see, especially as countries rush to get trade agreements in place and have those tariffs removed.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Former vice president at Pfizer, Dr. Mike Yeadon:
“The design of these molecular structures in the vaccines... has no other purpose but to injure and kill.”
“The purpose of the pandemic... was to damage the economy, to get us used to doing what we’re told under a mock emergency, and to roll up our sleeves to receive these dangerous materials.”
“Some self-appointed group of very rich people have decided they don’t like 8 billion people being on the planet, and want it to be a much smaller number.”
https://x.com/wideawake_media/status/1954113873595834560?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - His last lines above match perfectly the over arching goals stated by the WEF and other globalist entities. Normalize unreasonable and nonsensical govt dictated responses.
Fauci and others were the field generals in this effort. Whether or not they are brought to justice this side of eternity is yet to be seen. Their overlords will likely continue unabated in their efforts to not only bring humanity under control, but down size it considerably.
POLITICAL FRONT –
“The Texas Supreme Court has now ordered the runaway ring leader of the derelict Democrats to respond to my lawsuit by Friday,” Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced Tuesday, providing an update on his effort to remove a Texas House member who fled the state.
OBSERVATION - He was given until 5 PM on Friday to respond. Its now Sunday, so Monday could be full of fireworks.
Of further note, Beto and his PAC apparently have been funneling the money necessary to offset hotel costs and fines for failing to do their job. A judge in Texas cut that lifeline off, so now, theoretically, these democrats are being forced to pay for this out of their own pockets. However, it is most likely some other PAC is feeding them money instead.
TRUMP Watch –
How will Trump’s dance with putin this Friday play out. With or without Ukraine input or say.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range
RUMINT –
Russia is reinforcing the front in preparation for large-scale assaults, Mariupol mayor’s adviser Andryushchenko reports. Ammunition, troops, armored vehicles, and tanks are being sent continuously, with the biggest build-up on the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts, where intense attacks are expected soon.
NOTE - Same warnings have been made for most of this year, with nothing happening. However, in view of peace talks, putin may be taking a tack from previous interactions. Most recently, intensifying Russia drone attacks after teasing about ‘peace’. Donetsk is a more likely target as it has been the primary goal of the Russia ‘offensive’. Warnings about Zaporizhzhia have been out there for nearly a year as well, with nothing.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 100 Shahed and other UAVs from multiple directions, including occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 70 drones over the north and east. Thirty UAV impacts were recorded in 12 locations.
Russian losses per 10/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+950 men
+1 tank
+4 AFVs
+70 artillery
+4 MLRS
Ukrainian drones struck the Saratov oil refinery. Big fires are visible after several explosions. Saratov Governor Roman Busargin confirmed damage to an “industrial site”.
Ukrainian forces have liberated the village of Bezsalivka in Sumy region and fully cleared it of Russians, the general staff confirms
Summary —
Drone activity has been down for the past few days, suggesting that in the next couple Russia will once again spike with a major attack. This could be tempered because of putin’s meeting with Trump and not wanting to have an incident inflame him.
On the ground, the typical grind continues with moderate intensities of fighting.
An item to note. The once overwhelming effect of Russian artillery that dominated early fighting apparently has seen its better days. Russia doesn’t seem to have the ability to make up for lost artillery. Probably high on the list is the attacks from drones, but also materially. These guns require special steel alloys to stand up to the high temperatures and pressures of firing. Sanctions have made it virtually impossible to get the metals necessary. Russia has increasingly being relying on N Korean artillery pieces. However, that creates a logistic scenario as the NK guns do not fire standard Russian rounds. MLRS trucks have cease firing in mass due to attrition, now roam in onesies and twosomes in an effort to avoid detection and destruction. Russia has attempted to make up for this with increased use of long range glide bombs and their own tactical drones.
Ukraine still has a slight advantage in that the NATO artillery pieces are able to shoot farther away - keeping them more out of range of Russian assets.
If anything, this war has shown huge adaptations and changes to warfare that will definitely project to the future.
Europe / NATO General –
Leaders of France, Italy, Germany, Poland, the UK, Finland, and the European Commission stated ahead of Trump-Putin talks that peace negotiations on Ukraine are impossible without Kyiv’s participation and a ceasefire, borders cannot be changed by force, and the current frontline should be the starting point.
OBSERVATION - Not certain how much Trump will listen. He seems to be OK with a treaty that at minimum allows Russia to keep the territory it has captured. Ceding any more - without direct Ukrainian approval - will doom any talks given beyond Friday.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel makes preparations for expanded Gaza operations.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
U.S. Sec. State Rubio:
“Britain and France caused the collapse of the Israel-Hamxs ceasefire talks.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israel estimates some 10,000 Hamxs fighters remain in Gaza City, entrenched over a tunnel network with command centers and weapons depots.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is seriously considering unilaterally declaring the formation of a Palestinian State at the upcoming UN General Assembly in NY in September
***
Defense Minister Israel Katz says IDF forces will stay in the Jenin, Tulkarem, and Nur Shams refugee camps in northern Judea and Samaria until at least year’s end. He cites an eight-month offensive that drove out residents, killed gunmen, and destroyed Iran-backed terror infrastructure, cutting terror alerts by 80%.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis have been quiet for a while, and like a little child that can be dangerous.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Germany has announced itself as the latest European nation to suspend its arms exports to Israel, noting that these could be used in human rights violations and potential war crimes in the Gaza Strip. Berlin backs the anti-Hamas fight, however.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz made clear as Israel’s military is poised to take over Gaza city his government will not approve or transfer any exports of military equipment to Israel that could be used in Gaza until further notice.
***
U.S. HITS UN OFFICIAL WITH SANCTIONS
Francesca Albanese cynically used her UN post to push ICC charges on Israelis & and Target U.S. companies.
White House calls her a national security threat and hit her with sanctions, including property blocks & visa bans.
State Dept spox: “We will protect Israel & all allies from illegitimate ICC attacks.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Some analysts suggest that the final push in Gaza may take some time to formally kick off for as much as two months.
The reasons?
1. Reserves stretched thin — Chief of Staff Zamir warns they’re tired, and hostages could die in the chaos of urban combat.
2. Foreign pressure — U.S. & Gulf envoys leaning hard to pause the fight and push a deal.
3. Internal unrest — Protests grow as hostage families demand a ceasefire, not escalation.
In the coming days, the IDF will present its plan to the political leadership to expand operations in Gaza, including the call-up of roughly 250,000 reservists.
Gaza City is a major urban area. Fierce fighting will leave Gaza City in ruins. It will take considerable amounts of resources. Hence, part of the Israeli goal is to remove as many of the civilians as possible and then encircle the city and progressively squeeze Hamas out.
The other matter growing the growing push for a Palestinian “State” be recognized one way or another in September. Outside of the security council resolution, this acknowledgement of such a ‘state’ by the broader UN membership is non-binding, but sets precedence and allows countries to more aggressively pursue their anti-Israel policies with UN ‘support’.
The most extreme definition of this ‘state’ demand that Israel withdraw to it pre-1967 boundaries, giving up the Golan, Judea, Samaria and Gaza and plops the capitol of this so called ‘state’ in E Jerusalem. We can see just how wonderful this will be as muslims were not satisfied in pre-1967 times to peacefully coexist with Israel and have launched numerous wars. 67 saw the first inching forward to a regional peace, finalized after the 73 Yon Kippor war between Israel, Egypt and Jordan.
Fundamentally, the so called two state solution is just the nose of the camel under the tent flap towards a one state solution - elimination of the jews in total from the middle east.
The current situation, nothing will happen without elimination of Hamas, and Hezbollah. Syria will remain largely an antagonist given its hostile sunni ISIS related leadership. And Israel has spent too much capitol in its attempts to subdue Gaza.
This fall may be more turbulent as Hamas and Hezbollah will see European / UN designation of a Palestinian ‘state’ as a victory in its terror war against Israel and will further crank the PR up to leverage that ‘victory’ into an Israeli concession in the current fight.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Authorities in Iran are preparing to impose a lockdown due to water and electricity shortages
Iranian President Masoud Pezhkian said yesterday that there is a severe shortage of water and electricity and that the government aims to establish a large power plant to meet the needs, but there is currently no choice but to impose a lockdown due to the shortage of water and electricity.
The purpose of the lockdown is to reduce electricity and water consumption in public places (for example, government offices and various companies)
OBSERVATION -
A power with some of the largest energy resources in the world is going to impose a lockdown on its citizens due to electricity shortages. I think the rank and file Iranian realizes that the country has wasted hundreds of billions of dollars pursuing its military goal and leaving them on the sidelines to get the crumbs.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.
Syrian govt and Druze are continuing another round of negotiations on how to work differences out.
Thanks Godzilla.
https://www.weforum.org/communities/strategic-partnership-b5337725-fac7-4f8a-9a4f-c89072b96a0d/
WEF partners A-Z
Book 📕 mark
Interesting indeed, but those companies who wish to do business with me (at least) are going to have to make some choices.
I would suggest they choose wisely.
One little bitty fish nip is nothing. Couple million little fishes nips can ruin your whole day.
HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time. Going to try to catch up today.
Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)
Globalism / Great Reset –
Worth repeating (h/t PGalt)
https://www.weforum.org/communities/strategic-partnership-b5337725-fac7-4f8a-9a4f-c89072b96a0d/
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
The Trump administration has begun deploying roughly 120 FBI agents in overnight shifts to help D.C. police combat carjackings and violent crime, The Washington Post reported Sunday.
U.S. military is preparing for the activation of hundreds of National Guard troops to Washington, D.C., two U.S. officials told Reuters on Sunday.
The officials, who were speaking on the condition of anonymity, said a final decision was still to be made by President Donald Trump but the troops were prepared to deploy.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/trump-administration-fbi-agents-washington-d-c/2025/08/10/id/1221962/
OBSERVATION - Why under CW2? Because previous uses of US forces have triggered responses by Antifa and related leftists - under the call against ‘martial law’. As the article notes, military may mostly fill in admin support, not actually on the streets. But that has never stopped the mind-hive of the leftists. Could see some increase in related violence.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Clock ticking down on Texas democrats
IN RELATED, Newscum is facing a barrier to his threatened counter redistricting effort -
“Newsom wants to call a special election to throw out the congressional maps drawn by the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission that voters established using the initiative power.
In 2008, a majority of California voters were disgusted with incumbent politicians in Sacramento drawing self-serving district maps to guarantee their own re-election. Using the initiative power, voters revoked the legislature’s map-drawing authority for state offices in 2008 and for congressional districts in 2010. The two ballot measures, Propositions 11 and 20, empowered a California Citizens Redistricting Commission to draw the district lines free from the control of politicians and lobbyists.”
Given the surge in Republican support, and cynicism from more mainline democrats and independents, it would appear that Newscum may not be able to legally set aside the CCRC and draw his own districts. Big time lawsuits if he does.
China -
A flotilla of three Chinese cutters was spotted near the waters of Manila’s northernmost island chain, prompting the Philippine Coast Guard to track their movements in the Luzon Strait.
Manila began monitoring the formation on Thursday as it approached Batanes, a remote island chain between the Philippines and Taiwan in the Luzon Strait.
The agency utilized its Canadian-provided dark vessel detection system to detect and observe cutters Hailing (3301), Dahao (3304) and Zhongjian (4304), Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela said in a statement. Pennants listed in the release show that the flotilla exclusively consists of Zhaoyu-class large patrol vessels, 110-meter-long cutters in the China Coast Guard.
On Friday morning, the Philippine Coast Guard deployed an Islander aircraft from Manila for a maritime domain awareness mission to challenge the vessels off Batanes.
Tarriela described the flotilla’s movements as “irregular” and said China did not respond to the Philippine challenges. Only one of the Zhaoyu-class cutters was observed due to weather conditions in the strait. While the Philippine Navy has yet to release a statement on the Chinese cutters, local media outlet Radyo Pilipinas Batanes noted that patrol ship BRP Emilio Jacinto (PS 35) was conducting a maritime patrol in the area.
https://news.usni.org/2025/08/08/irregular-chinese-flotilla-spotted-in-luzon-strait
RELATED -
While attempting to chase and corner a patrol boat with the Philippine Coast Guard near Bajo de Masinloc in the West Philippine Sea on Monday, a ship with the China Coast Guard (CCG-3104) collided with a Type 052D Destroyer of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (DDG-164). The incident reportedly caused “substantial damage” to the CCG vessel, rendering it unseaworthy, with offers of assistance by the Philippine Coast Guard being ignored by the Chinese.
OBSERVATION - Chinese activity has been on the increase lately. The incident with the Philippine patrol boat belays potential for even more violent encounters.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Ongoing soap opera and posturing for this Friday’s Trump / putin meeting. Not going to track too closely as full of PR and BS.
Muddled meanderings on Trump and the elusive peace in Ukraine. He has gained some remarkable points as a ‘peace maker’, but Ukraine seems to be the golden ring that is eluding his grasp. On a very basic level, putin should not be rewarded for his overt aggression against Ukraine - no matter who is running the country. putin is trying to reconstruct the Soviet Union through numerous territorial take overs - Moldova, Georgia and threats towards the Baltic states, just for starters. Any reward of territory to putin by Trump (without Ukrainian OK) will simply justify his behavior and encourage further aggression. Many former Soviet republics see this.
Not sure Friday will move the needle very much as far as fighting goes. But on a broader level may serve to produce a crack in putin’s designs for continued war. As I and many other observers have noted, Russia is running out of resources to maintain operations at the current level and can hit the wall next year. When it takes Russia 18 months to capture 30 sq km of territory for instance, this is not going to be a war won any time soon.
Russia lacks the “trained” heavy armored maneuver forces it started out the war with. Today, Russian attack positions on motorcycles and stolen trucks, rushing across a no man’s land of FPV drones to try to gain a toehold. The front is not much different than WW1 - only newer weapons.
Russian inflation already starting to skyrocket further, resources becoming scarce and with new and more aggressive sanctions and tariffs, things will only become worse.
Again, a lot can happen as a result of the Friday meeting, especially in light of recent successes of Trump to quell other global hot spots. But if progress, it will be at a glacial pace.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 71 Shahed and other UAVs from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 59 drones over the north, south, and east. Twelve UAV impacts were recorded in six locations, with debris falling in one more.
Russian losses per 11/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1000 men
+4 tanks
+7 AFVs
+37 artillery
+2 MLRS
Summary —
Overarching wait for the Trump / putin summit this Friday.
Lowered drone strikes suggest either a new series of large ones coming, or very possibly that putin doesn’t want to poke the bear too hard prior to this Friday’s meeting. The last time putin miscalculated and launched massive drone/missile attacks against Ukraine - triggering significant response by Trump in support of Ukraine (materials and weapons) as well as escalation of the sanctions / tariff war.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Australia and New Zealand to recognize a palistanian ‘state’ in September with UK and France.
- IAF increasing airstrikes in and around Gaza City
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli army has killed Al Jazeera journalist Anas al-Sharif. An army spokesman reported that shortly before midnight via X and Sharif’s broadcaster confirmed his death shortly thereafter, along with that of six others, including four other employees of the news channel. They were killed when a press tent for a hospital in Gaza was attacked.
Sharif (28) was one of the most important active journalists in the Gaza Strip. He regularly shared stories and images about the impact of the Israeli attacks there.
OBSERVATION - It has also been documented that he and his cohorts also participated in the Oct 7 massacres along with other actions ICW Hamas terrorists. A terrorist wearing a press vest is still a terrorist.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
IAF air strikes all around Gaza City.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced that Australia will follow the lead of the United Kingdom, France, and Canada, in recognizing the State of Palestine during the U.N. General Assembly in September. “A two-state solution is humanity’s best hope to break the cycle of violence in the Middle East and to bring an end to the conflict, suffering and starvation in Gaza,” Albanese said in a statement, with him adding that Australia has received commitments from the Palestinian Authority (PA) including to hold general elections, continue to recognise Israel’s right to exist, and to demilitarize the Gaza Strip.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1954764123209695710?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters: Considering recognizing a Palestinian state, a decision will be made in September at the Cabinet meeting
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
How Hamas pulled off such a PR win in having its murder, rapes and kidnapping rewarded by western nations is in some ways remarkable. However, the move to recognize a Palestinian “state” is in many ways going to backfire (and already is). Hamas may gloat now, but it has redoubled the resolve of Israeli leaders to eliminate the terror organization and bring forth its worst case scenario - complete occupation of Gaza. Hamas and supporters saying such a move will draw Israel into a quagmire and defeat. I think that they speak too soon. Similar rhetoric has been spewed by Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran for months now - and we see how they ‘ve been dealt with. Hamas has effectively lost 60% of Gaza already. And as long as Trump stands firm behind Israel, all the bleats for a Palestinian ‘state’ will go no where.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Armenia and Iran to hold consultations today and tomorrow - Iranian Foreign Ministry
OBSERVATION - With the US lead peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran’s influence in Armenia has been struck a blow.
***
Iranian President Pezeshkian:
“We are facing a severe, unimaginable water crisis. If anyone has a solution, they should come forward. Sadly, we have no option but to shut off the water.”
OBSERVATION - Rumblings from the affected noting that the mullahs and their friends seem to have no restrictions. Iran playing with matches in the gunpowder bin. . . .
Lebanon -
Hezbollah supporters are organizing marches for the fourth consecutive day in Beirut’s southern suburbs, protesting the government’s decision to restrict the possession of weapons to the state.
OBSERVATION - Most visibly are the motorcycle parades through mostly Hezbollah controlled sectors of Lebanon and in particular Beirut.
RUMINT from Israeli sources suggest Hezbollah is demoralized and struggling at this stage to put up a front against the renewed efforts of the Lebanese govt to disarm them and push them out of positions of power.
IMHO, the Lebanese govt, though vocal about Israeli targeting of Hezbollah ammo and weapons stashes as well as leadership, is quietly thankful for the help in putting Hezbollah down and keeping them from redirecting these weapons and resources against the govt.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
See Armenian / Iranian consultations above under Iran
Thanks Godzilla.
HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.
Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
As warned yesterday, leftists are trying to rally the ‘troops’ in opposition to the federal take over of law enforcement in DC -
In the wake of President Donald Trumpannouncing measures on Monday morning to curb violence in the nation’s capital, protestors in Washington, DC claimed that the efforts, including placing the city’s police department under federal control, was provoking “violence.”
“The President has been trying to provoke violence here, right here in the black communities and the brown communities,” a woman told the crowd. “Having ICE kidnap our neighbors. Having the black community be harassed and profiled and want a response. We say hell no, we won’t go. When we say we won’t go, that mean we’re not going into their, to those mass incarcerate—into, into their prisons and enslavement. We won’t go into their, to their ICE, those, what he call, his beautiful centers that he got. We won’t go to where alligators live. Hell no, we won’t go.”
OBSERVATION - There could be large protests and potential violence come this weekend as federal officers and National Guard troops hit the streets. However, with a new sheriff in town, some of the violence may be dampened by a sudden dash of reality in that the arrestees will not find a revolving door at the police precinct or courts. Facing real jail time can change an attitude.
POLITICAL FRONT –
President Trump announced that the DC Police will be under direct federal control.
TRUMP: “We’re declaring a public safety emergency in the District of Columbia — and AG Pam Bondi is taking command of the Metropolitan Police Department as of this moment.”
800 National Guard troops to be deployed to Washington, Trump says. It says the troops will NOT have arrest authority, but a military police unit may play a role in detaining suspects while waiting for local LEO to make an arrest.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth states that the District of Columbia National Guard has been mobilized and will begin to be deployed in the streets of Washington, D.C. “in the coming week.”
OBSERVATION - See CW2 above for potential leftist push back. However, law is clear on the subject, that Trump has full grounds and rights to place the police under direct federal control. This is in part due to the special status of DC as a creature of being a federal “district”.
Talk of Trump doing the same to other cities may face serious legal challenges, given that they are independent, not dependent like DC.
China -
President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday evening extending the U.S.-China tariff truce for another 90 days, just hours before a midnight deadline that would have triggered massive tariff increases on Chinese goods. The order prevents high U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from snapping back into effect, giving negotiators until mid-November to reach a more permanent trade agreement.
https://redstate.com/joesquire/2025/08/11/trump-extends-china-tariff-deadline-by-90-days-n2192707
OBSERVATION - Give more time to nail out what will be a very complicated agreement. However the swerving back and forth has probably go China’s economic planners heads spinning.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Russian Armed Forces have launched a major offensive action against the frontline in the Donetsk Oblast of Eastern Ukraine, as we approach Friday’s potential peace talks in Alaska between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin. Some of the heaviest fighting of the war so far is reported to be taking place along the “Kramatorsk Axis” with elements of the Russian Ground Forces having achieved a significant breakthrough near Dobropillia, stretching roughly 10 miles behind Ukrainian Defensive Lines. Reinforcements are being redirected from other areas of the front, as both the Ukrainian and Russian Air Forces carry out extensive airstrikes against positions on and around the T-05-15 Highway.
Overnight, Russia launched 48 Shahed-type drones and four Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles at Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense destroyed 36 drones over the north and east. Twelve drones and three missiles struck seven locations.
Russian losses per 12/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+980 men
+5 tanks
+5 AFVs
+26 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 AD systems
Ukrainian attack drones mounted a strike on the Russian city of Stavropol tonight, hitting the JSC Monocystal plant. The factory, responsible for creating synthetic glass used in missile seekers and other IR imagers, suffered a fire on the premises.
Ukraine forces also pushed back Russians in areas along the border with Sumy Oblast.
Summary —
The Russia ‘breakthrough “ is the big OSINT item today. This is along part of the salient north of Pokrovsk and is directed mostly towards the north. OSINT analysts note that the Russians have a created a narrow corridor to the T-05-15 highway, a key Ukrainian logistical route for the defense of Pokrovsk. OSINT also doesn’t see any follow up Russian armor / mechanized units to exploit or any significant ground forces elements. Some unconfirmed reports on the ground suggest that the Russian forces involved are limited and facing diminished reinforcements.
The key is whether or not Russia has the reinforcements capable to hold the shoulders of the penetration open or if Ukraine is able to pinch it off, trapping the Russian elements. Russian air strikes via glide bombs is intensifying to support the penetration, Russian artillery is attempting to support as well. Ukraine has already been maneuvering forces into the region to stabilize the front and prevent the encirclement of Pokrovsk,
I think it is coincidental that the is happening just days before the Trump/putin summit. Is not blunted and turned back by Ukraine, it could represent the most significant terrain capture by Russia since 2024.
Europe / NATO General –
Ukraine continues to rally European allies to strongly state that Ukraine will not cede land to Russia in any agreement and that Ukraine must have a full say in the matter.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues preparations for incursion into Gaza City and the rest of Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
General observation - pro-hamas European and arab govts cry warnings over Israel’s announced actions in Gaza. Other voices counter saying it is what needs to be done.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Intense airstrikes around Gaza City and Khan Yunis.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
An extended period of quiet from Houthis
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
A Hamas delegation is reportedly meeting with Egyptian officials today in Cairo, allegedly to renew ceasefire negotiations as Israel is preparing for a major military incursion into Gaza City.
According to Al Arabiya, Hamas leaders are also seeking to reconcile with Egyptian officials after senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya accused Egypt last week of complicity in the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Sources close to Hamas told “Rai Al-Youm” newspaper that Egyptian pressure on Hamas “has reached unprecedented levels” over the past three days.
The sources stated that Cairo is accusing Hamas for the failure of Gaza ceasefire negotiations as it seeks to remain in power in Gaza, knowing that this would be a major obstacle in ending the war.
The Egyptian pressure reportedly began following statements by Hamas leader in Gaza and chief negotiator, Khalil Al-Hayya, who publicly criticized Egypt for preventing the entry of aid into Gaza.
Egyptian mediators were quoted as saying that the Cairo was deeply angered by Al-Hayya’s comments, considering them “out of line, inappropriate, and inflammatory.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas trying to patch up relations with Egypt in the face of Israel’s plans to strike directly at the remaining Hamas stronghold of Gaza City. Egypt has no love for the Hamas backing ‘palestinians ‘, given their history of attempted overthrow of the Egyptian govt and other equivalent acts of rebellion / aggression to Egyptian rule. The support Egypt has been giving has been more to appease the deep pocketed gulf nations as their proxy.
Numbers on the left are warning that Israel doesn’t have a chance to obtain their objectives in Gaza. They are forgetting that they said the same about Hezbollah and Iran and that Israel controls 60% of Gaza already.
Indicators that the more intensive operations are still about a month out, as logistics and population movement will take time. This will give Hamas an opportunity to raise a new PR effort to try to rally more international opposition to Israel.
All this is looking to converge in September - with the Israeli push in Gaza and hamasphiles in the UN declaring recognition of a Palestinian ‘state’.
Meanwhile, the increased air strikes in and around Gaza City are evidence of battlefield preparation for the eventual ground operations.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iraq’s Electricity Ministry says a shutdown at the Hamidiya plant in Anbar has caused a blackout across central and southern regions.
OBSERVATION - Iran’s mullahs are focusing on rapid rebuilding of their air defenses and nuclear program - all at the expense of the rest of the country. With he heat of summer coming full on, no electricity or water is going to hit and hit hard. Potential for civil unrest will be on the rise.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.
A Syrian government source told Al Jazeera: A delegation from the Syrian Democratic Forces arrived in Damascus for a new round of talks to complete the March 10 agreement.
OBSERVATIONS - The sunni / ISIS foundation of Syria’s current leadership is the main reason for groups like the SDF and Druze to move slowly in coming under the full control of Damascus. So far, the Syrian govts loose hand in stopping attacks like seen in the south against the Druze have not engendered any degree of trust to these other arab elements.
HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.
Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)
Globalism / Great Reset –
But now, a Big Tech-backed, Trump-approved digital personal health tracking system has appeared on the national landscape with a “Patient-Centric Healthcare Ecosystem” announced at a recent White House event hosted with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
This government-initiated Digital Health Ecosystem will work with Amazon, Anthropic, Apple, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, and others, including World Economic Forum (WEF) partners who are working with global elites to build sugar-coated, white-labeled Chinese credit system-esque frameworks worldwide.
Though the Digital Health Ecosystem has the intention of streamlining health care and riding the wave of the “Fourth Industrial Revolution,” it could shape up to be a globally harmonized health grid and tracking mechanism that plays right into the U.N. and WEF’s plan. The Digital Health Ecosystem could eventually mandate a digital ID to buy, sell, travel, pay taxes, or participate in the national or global public square.
OBSERVATION - The globalists never stop and their efforts work around more subdued means. While this US program isn’t the final solution, it can be adapted by those more vile down the road.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
National guard elements began patrols in DC overnight. Yesterday, leftists became more vocal over the federal take over of police actions, claiming (as usual ) racism and even apartheid.
Police union contradicts the claims by the liberal city govt of lowest crime in decades, noting the widespread redefinition of numerous crimes.
Warning remains for this weekend as the left is looking to ramp up from rhetoric to protest and some levels of violence. Keep alert.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
From CNBC,
Consumer prices rise 2.7% annually in July, less than expected amid tariff worries.
For months, economists have sounded the alarm about runaway prices. The big spike still hasn’t shown up.
Inflation held steady at 2.7 percent in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, just shy of the 2.8 percent bump Wall Street expected. It’s the same reading as June.
OBSERVATION - Some economists on the left tried to make the report into the apocalypse, but it didn’t gain traction.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Trump administration is evaluating plans to create units composed of hundreds of National Guard troops tasked with rapidly deploying into U.S. cities facing protests or unrest, The Washington Post reported Tuesday, citing internal Pentagon documents.
The “Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force” plan calls for 600 troops, split into two groups of 300, to be on standby at all times so they can deploy in as little as one hour, the Post reported.
The troops would be stationed at military bases in Alabama and Arizona, the documents showed.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/pentagon-trump-admin-national-guard/2025/08/12/id/1222110/
OBSERVATION - Forward planning and thinking. I think that the leftist response in LA to ICE operations opened eyes to the potential for very rapid escalation of violence and showed the need for more flexibility and ability to get on the ground quicker during an incident. These teams would provide a stopgap while regular NG units are spun up to deal with a major event.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Texas House Democrats are reportedly ending their weeks-long standoff Tuesday and returning to Austin.
OBSERVATION - Optics for the democrats crumbled quickly and with Beto’s PAC under the guns for allegedly illegally funding the runaways (who have been ordered by courts to stop payments), the cost of such a misadventure is hitting their pocketbooks.
Next to watch and see if kalifornia tries to ram thru a redistricting effort of its own.
Noting again from what Ive said earlier, many blue states are gerrymandered to the max already, so what more can kalifornia do?
TRUMP Watch –
Friday’s meeting between Putin and Trump will be held at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, AK - CNN
Illegal Immigration –
More than 100,000 Americans have applied to join U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in just over two weeks following the launch of a nationwide recruitment drive, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed Monday, as reported by Fox News.
President Donald Trump’s administration began the initiative at the end of July, aiming to hire 10,000 additional ICE agents.
***
Press Sec. Leavitt: Zero illegal immigrants have been released into the United States at the border for the third consecutive month.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russian Foreign Ministry: Russia’s position on peace in Ukraine has not changed and was set out by President Putin in June of last year.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 49 drones and two ballistic missiles overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down or suppressed 34 targets, including 2 Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles and 32 Shahed or other decoy drones in the north and east. Seventeen drones hit 15 locations.
Russian losses per 13/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+890 men
+1 tank
+8 AFVs
+23 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Suvorove(Zatyshok) and Nikanorovka(Zapovidne) villages of Donetsk region of Ukraine
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirmed overnight attack at the oil pumping station Unecha, involved in supplying of Russian armed forces with fuel
Summary —
Action on the ground remains focused on the area north and east of Pokrovsk, where small teams of Russian forces reportedly are finding ways to infiltrate into the breakthrough region. Deeper penetration appears to have been blunted, but with the reported seizure of the main highway in the region, the damage has been done.
Coming to any agreement on Friday looks to remain distant as putin’s demands from June of last year remain front and center in Russia’s position. Increased pressure from European allies of Ukraine not to cede any terrain without full Ukraine sign off is pressuring from the other side.
My guess is that Russia will see the split between the US and Europe going in their way and will dig in and not make any concessions, calling trump’s bluff on increased sanctions and tariffs. The war will continue.
Europe / NATO General –
European and Ukrainian leaders meeting and contacting Trump on their positions regarding his meeting with putin.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Plans for the next phase in Gaza moving forward.
- Reports of some ground penetrations into Gaza City by Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israeli military Chief of Staff approved “main concept” for an attack plan in Gaza strip
***
Intense airstrikes around Gaza City and Khan Yunis.
***
Hamas says Israel carrying out ground incursions in Gaza City
***
Israeli FM Saar states the obvious that a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital would endanger Israel’s population centers and leave its borders indefensible.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
After saying yesterday that they’ve been quiet, two Houthi UAVs from Yemen were intercepted above the Red Sea near Eilat
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Washington Free Beacon reveals:
The UN secretly changed the criteria for defining hunger in conflict areas, in order to allow a declaration of hunger in Gaza.
In the report The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
published on 29.7, the criterion requiring that 30% of children in the conflict area be malnourished to declare hunger was reduced to only 15%.
In other words, the criterion for Gaza was cut by 50% compared to other conflict areas in order to allow a declaration of hunger.
***
After Germany halted new arms contracts deliveries to Israel, the CSU party, part of Chancellor Merz’s coalition, said it was not consulted. CSU lawmaker Stephan Pilsinger remarked, “Currently, we feel like we benefit more from Israel in terms of security policy than Israel benefits from us.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Noting of IDF ground incursions into Gaza City - most likely recon missions. Could see increased ground activity by the end of the month.
Political pressure on the international level continues, but is losing some traction as the famine narrative is losing some validity in the leftist view. Israel has weathered the worst and is going back into badger mode towards its plan to eliminate Hamas.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Netanyahu: 400 kg of enriched uranium in Iran was not damaged and we are closely monitoring this with Washington. We are on high alert for the possibility of Iran attempting to rebuild its nuclear program
OBSERVATION - Rest assured, Mossad has this location (s) under tight surveillance
***
The E3 Group, which consists of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, has informed the United Nations that they intend to reinstate major economic sanctions against Iran, if they do not return to the negotiation table regarding their nuclear program by the end of August, according to a report by the Financial Times.
OBSERVATION - This has Iran’s attention in a serious manner especially given the massive disaster with no power and no water for large areas of Iran.
***
Reports out of Iran are indicting that a missile test(s) was conducted by the IRGC, from in several areas of the country.
The reporting suggests coordinated volleys across separate districts rather than one static range, a deliberate choice to demonstrate coverage from multiple vectors.
OBSERVATION - Multiple launch sites were one tactic Iran used towards the end of the 12 day war to confuse/overload the Israeli ballistic missile defenses.
Lebanon -
Israel and the U.S. have informed the members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) that they oppose another automatic extension of the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which is scheduled for reassessment in a discussion later in August.
Israel has long criticized the peacekeeping force for failing to confront the terror group Hezbollah, which entrenched itself in southern Lebanon over decades without the UN force sounding the alarm or confronting the terror group.
Israel and the U.S. are now trying to convince UNSC members to support substantial changes to UNIFIL’s mandate, or to abolish it completely “in light of its prolonged failure to prevent Hezbollah’s infiltration into southern Lebanon, and to enforce the Lebanese government’s sovereignty in the area,” an informed source told the Jerusalem Post.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-88/
OBSERVATION - The UNIFIL has been worse than useless and has been shown on many occasions to have supported Hezbollah operations.
***
The head of the intelligence headquarters in the southern Dahieh area of Beirut, Brigadier General Maher Raad, was suddenly dismissed, as reported today (Tuesday) by local media.
The senior Lebanese officer, is considered to have close ties to the Hezbollah terrorist organization. The senior figure in the military intelligence apparatus is regarded as highly influential and has led the headquarters since 2017.
He is a native of the Shiite village of Jibaa in the southern Nabatieh district, and a relative of Hezbollah faction parliament member Muhammad Raad. He is one of the senior figures in the pro-Iranian terrorist movement these days, against the backdrop of the elimination of almost the entire leadership, headed by Hassan Nasrallah.
According to reports in Lebanon, Army Commander Rudolf Heikal appointed Colonel Samer Hamda as the new head of the intelligence headquarters of the southern Dahieh.
This unusual move comes in light of the approval of the American plan’s objectives to disarm Hezbollah. According to the leaked outline in Beirut, within four months the “armed presence” of Hezbollah in the area south of the Litani River, and even north of it, is supposed to end. The terrorist organization rejected the plan outright.
OBSERVATION - Some are noting that this is a significant step forward in prying Hezbollah out of Lebanese govt and military.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Syrian Foreign Minister: We face challenges, most notably Israeli raids that threaten our security. Our country is going through a delicate time after years of war that have affected every home in the country. Syria faces dangerous challenges, most notably Israeli interventions and attacks that threaten the country’s stability.
***
Syria, Jordan, and the US said Jordan hosted talks in Amman to reinforce the Suwayda ceasefire and advance stability. Syria pledged to investigate crimes, improve aid, restore services, rehabilitate areas, and promote reconciliation. A tripartite group will support the ceasefire, with more meetings planned in the coming weeks.
OBSERVATION - The Syrian govt has been all talk and little action on investigations in this manner. Far too much evidence that the ‘regular’ Syrian military forces took part in these atrocities.
Thanks Godzilla.
The good thing about Hamas is while they're evil - they're also stupid. Not so with the Iranians.
HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.
Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)
Things are deceptively quiet. Like the duck on a pond, placid at the surface while paddling strenuously under the surface
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
Overnight, Antifa and the far-left appeared to be rioting again at the local ICE facility in Portland. Almost a daily occurrence.
***
Increased probability of protesting in the DC area in response to federal takeover of local law-enforcement. Threat of violence during the day is low, increasing as darkness takes over and more radical elements attempt to take advantage of the cover for causing trouble.
The rest of the country is currently seeing very mild protests, mostly signs and some rallies.
As always, conditions could change rapidly.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
U.S. wholesale inflation surged unexpectedly last month, signaling that President Donald Trump’s sweeping taxes on imports are pushing costs higher.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it hits consumers — was up 0.9% last month from June and 3,3% from a year earlier.
The numbers were much higher than economists had expected.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/wholesale-inflation-producer/2025/08/14/id/1222455/
OBSERVATION - These ‘economists’ have been hoping for the last several months to try to tie tariffs to inflation. Likely some impact at this stage, but is one looks far enough back these levels are not near what they’ve been predicting.
Reports note that lowered fuel and rental prices are taking some of the sting out of these numbers.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Newscum’s threat to redistrict the state to squeeze out more democrat districts faces challenges.
1 California has an “independent commission”
2 State’s constitution only allows redistricting every ten years
To get past 1 & 2, A multi-step referendum would need to pass in a special election, suspending the commission and amending the state constitution.
Add to it a recent POLITICO poll showing California voters prefer keeping an independent line-drawing panel to determine the state’s House seats “by nearly a two-to-one margin” (64%) while only “36% of respondents back returning congressional redistricting authority to state lawmakers
Unless newscum goes full monte totalitarian, chances are slim to none that any districting will be accomplished prior to the 2026 mids and even the 2028 generals.
BTW, Kalifornia, as well as many other blue state, are gerry wandered to the max already, so it is questionable just how many more districts they can manage to flip.
***
(FO) Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor said federal workers should be at-will employees, and it is reasonable to not have federal workers who are attempting to “thwart the goals that the president has been elected to do.”
The Department of Justice (DOJ) quietly ended a Carter-era consent decree in the 1981 Luevano v. Campbell lawsuit, in which the Carter administration agreed to end the use of Pendleton Act Civil Service Exams for federal employment.
The Trump administration terminated union agreements for Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) employees last week, exempting certain categories like police officers and firefighters.
OBSERVATION - IMHO there should be no unions for any govt employee - at any level, city state or federal.
TRUMP Watch –
When asked in a Q&A session Wednesday by Newsmax’s Mike Carter if there will be consequences if peace isn’t agreed at Friday’s summit in Anchorage, Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Donald Trump said there will be “very severe consequences” if Putin doesn’t agree to stop the Ukraine war.
OBSERVATION - Friday’s coming and we’ll see if Trump puts some sort of teeth to this statement. IMHO, putin will not give an inch thinking he’s split the NATO alliance’s support for Ukraine, giving him leverage over Trump.
Illegal Immigration –
“Illegal aliens may be crawling out of the woodwork in D.C., but our officers will not stop until our nation’s capital is safe and prosperous once again,” U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) declared Wednesday, cheering President Donald Trump’s deployment of federal officers to the city.
“Illegally present 32-year-old Guatemalan national Ludwin Lopez Hernandez was arrested on an administrative warrant and is now in our custody awaiting a deportation decision,” ICE added in one of a series of social media posts
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/ice-illegal-aliens-crawling-out-woodwork-dc
OBSERVATION - I’ve not seen any serious call for protests in DC this weekend. The only ‘protest’ action has been for residents to go outside, bang pots and pans for five minutes and yell.
Illegals are deeply embedded into DC as well as other liberal run hell holes because they have cover and copious benefits there. Shining the light via a multifaceted law enforcement effort is bound to expose illegals.
China -
Indicators that China is conducting extensive search and rescue operations around the area where two of their vessels collided while harassing a Philippines coast guard ship.
Phillipines –
Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Higgins has conducted a freedom of navigation operation near Scarborough Shoal, just 2 days after two PRC ships collided while harassing a Philippines coast guard ship in the same area.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Lavrov, Ushakov, Belousov, Siluanov and Dmitriev will be present from the Russian side at the Putin-Trump meeting. Putin and Trump will hold a joint press conference following the talks — Ushakov
OBSERVATION - I see no indicators that Russia is going to move its position one inch. Friday’s discussions may produce another nothing burger or Trump will act decisively . Going to depend a lot on Russia/putin’s attitude towards Trump.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight into August 14, Russia launched 45 Shahed and other decoy drones, along with two S-300/400 missiles from Kursk region. Strikes targeted front-line areas of Donetsk and Chernihiv regions with drones, and Sumy region with missiles. Ukrainian air defense, EW units, UAV teams, and mobile fire groups downed or suppressed 24 drones over the north and east. Twenty-one drones hit 12 locations.
Russian losses per 14/08/25. Reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+990 men
+5 tanks
+3 AFVS
+29 artillery
+1 MLRS
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Iskra and Scherbynivka villages of Donetsk region of Ukraine
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine claims drones strike at the Lukoil oil refinery Lukoil-Volgogradneftepereravotka in Volgograd
Social media videos show the refinery is currently ablaze after a successful overnight Ukrainian drone attack. Multiple Ukrainian attack drones reportedly hit the facility, causing a major fire that continuing to burn into the morning.
Summary —
Ukraine continues it successful attacks on Russian petroleum assets. When they focused on it last year, they stripped a substantial amount of processing and transporting capabilities off the chart. Each successful strike hits Russia logistics as well as civilian as Russia has to pull fuel designated for civilian use to support the war - creating inflation for the population as supplies contract.
Little word on the breakout north of Pokrovsk, due both to OPSEC as well as fog of war. Some of this may be reflected in the generally low causality numbers above. As OSINT analysts noted, Russia did not / does not have the armor forces available to exploit such a penetration.
Europe / NATO General –
European and Ukraine leaders teleconferenced with Trump to convey their concerns and positions in advance of the meeting with putin.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- IAF continues to hit targets in the Gaza City area.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Reports indicate the IDF plans to mobilize 80,000 to 100,000 reservists for the assault to seize control of Gaza City.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A ballistic missile launched a short while ago by the Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist group in Yemen was successfully intercepted by the Israeli Air Force.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordan stresses the need for the international community to take immediate action to halt all provocative Israeli measures and statements that threaten regional stability and international peace and security.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Seemingly low news period, but a lot working behind the scenes. IDF has its orders and plans and should be fully ready to conduct operations against Gaza City and the whole of Gaza by the end of the month.
Voices crying about the ‘famine’ are gradually being silenced as video after video from Hama and Gazans showing Hamas hijacking of food and aid flood the inter web social sites.
Rumors that Hamas is increasingly desperate to put together some sort of international coalition to forcefully interject into the pending next phase in Gaza.
On other fronts, Lebanon is firming up its commitment to disarm Hezbollah and cauterize them from national govt. IAF strikes on Hezbollah arms storage sites are maintaining their weakness to respond.
Syria is relatively stable, however tensions are still present in the south as the govt plays a peace keeper game while essentially running a blockade to the Druze region. Turkey trying to apply leverage to get the govt to become more forceful to the Kurdish based SDF in the northeast.
For Iran - RUMINT continues to flow on a surprise attack by Iran and equally from Israel.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Govt officials in Tehran warn that reservoirs are at 19% and only half of that is usable. Threat of total loss of water is looming large on the horizon.
Lebanon -
Lebanese President Aoun to Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani:
“We want to cooperate with Iran within the framework of sovereignty and mutual respect; the discourse recently conducted by some senior Iranian officials does not help the situation. We will not allow anyone to bear arms in Lebanon except the security forces; we oppose interference in our internal affairs by any party.”
OBSERVATION - Very subtle hint to Iran to start minding their own business.
Later in the day Hezbollah leaders met with Ali Larijani and reiterated their allegiance to Iran and the goal to prosecute war against Israel.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Turkey will help Syria with the provision of weapons systems and logistical tools under a military cooperation accord signed on Wednesday, a Turkish defense Ministry source told Reuters, adding that Ankara would also train Syria’s army in the use of such equipment if needed
Mexico -
State Dept has issued a Level 2 alert for Mexico - Exercise increased caution in Mexico due to terrorism, crime, and kidnapping.
Thanks Godzilla.
HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.
No posts - Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18) Well, hopefully I can get a weekend summary out on Monday.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
(FO) Obama-era National Security Council officials Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson said they and other former officials no longer expect U.S. military leaders to resist President Trump’s “misuse” of the military.
NYT editorial FO cites is here -
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/opinion/trump-military-power.html
OBSERVATION - Theirs as well as my analysis it the continued attempt to establish a foundation for mobilizing there left even as far as violent actions. The attempt is to delegitimize these NG deployments as an unconstitutional and tyrannical action, necessitating escalated response from the left.
So far, Trump’s NG deployments - LA and now DC have been tightly linked to clear law and use. Newscum’s lawsuit in kalifornia will eventually crash on the rocks and the DC deployment is recognized as legit by many (I’ll say moderate) democrats.
***
The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) numbers are in for July 2025. This is the first month in almost six years that the adjusted NICS numbers estimate less than one million firearm sales.
The adjusted figures, as computed by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), are almost 22,000 sales short of one million at 978,731.
In July of 2024, the NSSF calculated adjusted gun sales of 1,064,791. These figures show an eight percent drop in gun sales from last July. The NICS checks themselves fell by only four percent, from 2,021,235 to 1,936,621. About half of NICS checks are being used for purposes other than firearm sales.
OBSERVATION - With Trump firmly in place and the threatened riots failing to gain traction, the pressure to arm have dropped off. Same seen in ammo prices, now the lowest in years. However, one cannot become complacent and now is a good time to make sure you are competent with your firearms and not wait until SHTF.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group returned home after 269 days at sea, continuing a trend of longer-than-normal deployments for West Coast-based carriers.
***
According to Reuters, the U.S. Department of Defense has ordered the deployment of additional air and naval forces to the Southern Caribbean Sea to counter drug cartels operating in Latin America. An official added that the assets committed would include several P-8A “Poseidon” Maritime Patrol and Surveillance Aircraft, as well as at least one warship and an attack submarine, with them to be used not just to carry out intelligence and surveillance operations, but also as a launching pad for targeted strikes if a decision is made by President Trump.
OBSERVATION - Eyebrows raised over the last statement. Remember, Trump reportedly has directed special operation forces to directly engage drug cartel operations / groups in Central and S America.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A rogue, Biden-appointed judge who had articles of impeachment for corruption filed against him in February had his preliminary injunction preventing Pres. Trump from saving taxpayers billions of dollars lifted by a federal appeals court on Wednesday.
In a 2-1 decision, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia voted to lift U.S. District Judge Amir Ali’s order that the Trump Administration release the full amount of $2 billion of foreign assistance that Congress had appropriated for the 2024 budget year. Judge Florence Pan, also a Biden appointee, cast the lone dissenting vote.
In the majority opinion, Judge Karen LeCraft Henderson noted that the full financial import to taxpayers of lifting Judge Ali’s injunction could be as great as $6 billion:
OBSERVATION - Many decisions like this by activists judges at the district level are being overturned by higher courts on a consistent basis. They are becoming not much more than a speed bump.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Italian officials were warned of possible Russian sabotage at Aviano air base, which hosts US forces and stores nuclear weapons. A female suspect was stopped after allegedly photographing the site. Arson attacks were also reported nearby. An investigation is underway and the PM has been briefed.
https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1956303663900639369
OBSERVATION - If this is true, not the best optics on the day before the big Alaska meeting.
TRUMP Watch –
Show time in Alaska
Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov says no documents are expected to be signed after today’s summit with Trump in Alaska, adding that “nothing was prepared and it’s unlikely there will be a document.” He said Putin will outline any understandings reached at a joint press conference, though Trump has suggested the presser might not happen if the talks go poorly.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1956301038715093024
OBSERVATION - Trump has pulled no punches with other leaders at post meeting pressers, and depending on how much putin ticks him off today, the presser could contain a lot of fireworks, if there is one.
Illegal Immigration –
Border enforcement under the Trump administration resulted in historic record lows in the month of July, according to the latest data shared by the Trump White House as well as U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/08/13/trumps-golden-age-border-enforcement-sees-record-breaking-lows-in-july-lowest-level-ever-recorded/
OBSERVATION - Incredible numbers in such a short period of time.
***
President Donald Trump said Thursday that approximately 275,000 illegal immigrants have been purged from the Social Security database, as well as tens of thousands more beneficiaries over the age of 160 who were still receiving checks.
OBSERVATIONS - Could be the tip of the iceberg IMHO
Asia General –
Cambodia / Thailand
Threat advisory has been removed due to stability in the situation over the past month.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight into Aug 15, Russia launched 97 Shahed/decoy drones and 2 Iskander-M missiles at multiple regions. Ukrainian defenses downed or suppressed 63 drones; missiles and 34 drones hit 13 locations..
Russian losses per 15/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+940 men
+2 tanks
+3 AFVs
+40 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 aircraft
Major Ukrainian long-range drone raid into Russia reported tonight, with local channels already reporting impacts in Kursk.
Ukraine has now maintained nearly two weeks of major nightly raids, with tonight’s reportedly the largest so far as warnings go off across western Russia.
Ukrainian drones struck the Russian seaport of Olya on the Caspian Sea, heavily damaging and partially sinking the Port Olya-4, a vessel responsible for transporting key munitions and Shahed drone parts from Iran.
Russia’s JSC “Elastik” explosives plant reportedly suffered a catastrophic explosion this morning, destroying a gunpowder workshop and causing dozens of casualties, per Russian state media.
Ukraine had confirmed strikes at Syzran oil refinery and HQ of 51st army of Russian Armed Forces in Yenakiyeve This is the 8th Russian oil refinery to suffer major damage this month.
The War Zone reports, citing US Defense Intelligence Agency assessments, that Russia has upgraded its Iskander and KN-23 missiles, making Patriot air defense systems less effective. The missiles are now said to carry “radar decoys” and can fly quasi-ballistic trajectories, combining ballistic flight with maneuvering to complicate interception.
Summary —
Ukraine drones were busy overnight and many hits may be on the quiet side as to not embarrass putin in his meeting with Trump today. Russian drone attack levels have been relatively low this past week, perhaps so as not to poke the bear with the talks as well.
Looks like Russia’s “breakout” has been contained and is being reduced. While significant in that it showed localized weaknesses in the Ukraine defensive line, it is also significant in that Russian doesn’t have the capability to mass armor / mech forces to exploit a break thru like this.
Speaking of Russia ‘mechanized’ forces, reading reports of a defeated “Mechanized” assault by Russian forces. This ‘mechanized’ force consisted of a tank, cargo trucks, a few APC and motorcycles. The assault was stopped.
Now pause and think about this. The quality of Russian ‘mechanized’ forces have devolved to this rag tag operation.
Russia is relying heavily on numerical superiority of troops and glide bomb attacks, and no longer on an artillery or armor edge. This trend is why many analysts are seeing Russian military efforts hitting the wall in 2026.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Mobilization for the next phase of Gaza operations is beginning
- Controversial new settlements in Judea and Samaria to begin.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
IAF continues to hammer areas around Gaza City and new evacuation orders are being given.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announces start of construction of 3,401 housing units in Ma’ale Adumim’s E1 area, severing Palestinian territorial continuity between Ramallah and Bethlehem and isolating East Jerusalem
Speaking at a press conference in Ma’ale Adumim, Smotrich said the plan includes 3,401 new housing units and could begin within months if there are no delays. He framed the project as a direct response to international recognition efforts of a Palestinian state. “Those who try to recognize a Palestinian state will get an answer from us on the ground — not in documents or declarations but in facts: homes, neighborhoods, roads and more Jewish families building their lives,” Smotrich said.
The Yesha Council, representing Jewish settlements in the West Bank, said it will push Netanyahu to apply sovereignty over the entire West Bank at the next cabinet meeting. A letter signed by 19 council heads criticized what they called “Israeli hesitation” which they said fuels international support for a Palestinian state.
United States offered a more cautious response. A State Department spokesperson said a stable West Bank “keeps Israel secure and is in line with this administration’s goal to achieve peace in the region.”
OBSERVATION - Pushback on an entirely different level. This development/settlement will certainly put a kink in the demands by the two-staters for east Jerusalem to be its capitol. Should the two staters get more aggressive in their demands, full annexation of Judea and Samaria by Israel is on the table.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Over the past three weeks, only 8 ballistic missiles and 8 drones have been launched by the Houthis against Israel. No recent attacks in the Red Sea region.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UN Human Rights Office: Israel’s decision to build a new settlement in East Jerusalem is an illegal step.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Intermission regionally as Israel preps for its next phase in Gaza. IMHO there is increasing pressure on Israel / Netanyahu to finish it. The last operation was presented as the closure for Gaza, and it fell short. Israel has to go honey badger mode and wrap things up.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
With loss of electrical power and soon water supplies will be dry, Iran is facing even greater threat - Snapbacks
If the snapback mechanism is activated, all UN sanctions imposed on Iran between 2006 and 2010 would return. These include a full arms embargo, a total ban on uranium enrichment, a ban on ballistic missile tests capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and a ban on transferring technology and technical assistance in the missile field. In addition, it would impose asset freezes and international travel bans on Iranian officials and entities, and countries would be allowed to search Iranian cargo planes and ships of the national shipping company to find prohibited goods.
“An existential threat,” is how a senior Iranian official described the possibility of the powers activating the snapback mechanism. “The Islamic Republic has neither the economic nor military capability to withstand the return of UN sanctions. This will cause the people to protest again, and this time it could be different,” he told the Telegraph from Tehran. “Sanctions are more damaging than war,” another senior Iranian official added. “The Supreme National Security Council has asked the presidency to find a way to talks before it’s too late.”
OBSERVATION - The mullah’s fixation for war with Israel is blinding them to the growing challenge in Iran itself. They may find their bubble burst in ways most unpleasant
***
The city of Tabriz has announced a water outage from 4 to 6 PM in the city, while asking citizens to sharply reduce their consumption of water.
Temperatures in Khuzestan today reach 51 degrees Celsius (124 degrees Fahrenheit) as power outages continue throughout the province.
One county in northeast Iran told state media sources that the sales of wheat have plummeted 75% due to drought and power outages.
Lebanon -
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem: We refuse to surrender our weapons while Israeli attacks continue. There will be no “life” in Lebanon if the government tries to confront Hezbollah. The Lebanese government’s decision to disarm us could lead to a “civil war.” He is prepared to fight a “battle” to preserve his weapons
***
The IDF reports it struck multiple Hezbollah tunnels in southern Lebanon. Many believed to be arms and ammo depots.
OBSERVATION - Israel continues to dominate Hezbollah and keep them in the hole. They refuse to give up their weapons, then Israel will blow them up. Very simple message. This facilitates and strengthens the Lebanese govt thru Israeli disarmament of Hezbollah. Beirut may complain about the air strikes, but I’m pretty sure that secretly they are thankful for the help.
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