HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time. Going to try to catch up today.
Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)
Globalism / Great Reset –
Worth repeating (h/t PGalt)
https://www.weforum.org/communities/strategic-partnership-b5337725-fac7-4f8a-9a4f-c89072b96a0d/
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
The Trump administration has begun deploying roughly 120 FBI agents in overnight shifts to help D.C. police combat carjackings and violent crime, The Washington Post reported Sunday.
U.S. military is preparing for the activation of hundreds of National Guard troops to Washington, D.C., two U.S. officials told Reuters on Sunday.
The officials, who were speaking on the condition of anonymity, said a final decision was still to be made by President Donald Trump but the troops were prepared to deploy.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/trump-administration-fbi-agents-washington-d-c/2025/08/10/id/1221962/
OBSERVATION - Why under CW2? Because previous uses of US forces have triggered responses by Antifa and related leftists - under the call against ‘martial law’. As the article notes, military may mostly fill in admin support, not actually on the streets. But that has never stopped the mind-hive of the leftists. Could see some increase in related violence.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Clock ticking down on Texas democrats
IN RELATED, Newscum is facing a barrier to his threatened counter redistricting effort -
“Newsom wants to call a special election to throw out the congressional maps drawn by the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission that voters established using the initiative power.
In 2008, a majority of California voters were disgusted with incumbent politicians in Sacramento drawing self-serving district maps to guarantee their own re-election. Using the initiative power, voters revoked the legislature’s map-drawing authority for state offices in 2008 and for congressional districts in 2010. The two ballot measures, Propositions 11 and 20, empowered a California Citizens Redistricting Commission to draw the district lines free from the control of politicians and lobbyists.”
Given the surge in Republican support, and cynicism from more mainline democrats and independents, it would appear that Newscum may not be able to legally set aside the CCRC and draw his own districts. Big time lawsuits if he does.
China -
A flotilla of three Chinese cutters was spotted near the waters of Manila’s northernmost island chain, prompting the Philippine Coast Guard to track their movements in the Luzon Strait.
Manila began monitoring the formation on Thursday as it approached Batanes, a remote island chain between the Philippines and Taiwan in the Luzon Strait.
The agency utilized its Canadian-provided dark vessel detection system to detect and observe cutters Hailing (3301), Dahao (3304) and Zhongjian (4304), Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela said in a statement. Pennants listed in the release show that the flotilla exclusively consists of Zhaoyu-class large patrol vessels, 110-meter-long cutters in the China Coast Guard.
On Friday morning, the Philippine Coast Guard deployed an Islander aircraft from Manila for a maritime domain awareness mission to challenge the vessels off Batanes.
Tarriela described the flotilla’s movements as “irregular” and said China did not respond to the Philippine challenges. Only one of the Zhaoyu-class cutters was observed due to weather conditions in the strait. While the Philippine Navy has yet to release a statement on the Chinese cutters, local media outlet Radyo Pilipinas Batanes noted that patrol ship BRP Emilio Jacinto (PS 35) was conducting a maritime patrol in the area.
https://news.usni.org/2025/08/08/irregular-chinese-flotilla-spotted-in-luzon-strait
RELATED -
While attempting to chase and corner a patrol boat with the Philippine Coast Guard near Bajo de Masinloc in the West Philippine Sea on Monday, a ship with the China Coast Guard (CCG-3104) collided with a Type 052D Destroyer of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (DDG-164). The incident reportedly caused “substantial damage” to the CCG vessel, rendering it unseaworthy, with offers of assistance by the Philippine Coast Guard being ignored by the Chinese.
OBSERVATION - Chinese activity has been on the increase lately. The incident with the Philippine patrol boat belays potential for even more violent encounters.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Ongoing soap opera and posturing for this Friday’s Trump / putin meeting. Not going to track too closely as full of PR and BS.
Muddled meanderings on Trump and the elusive peace in Ukraine. He has gained some remarkable points as a ‘peace maker’, but Ukraine seems to be the golden ring that is eluding his grasp. On a very basic level, putin should not be rewarded for his overt aggression against Ukraine - no matter who is running the country. putin is trying to reconstruct the Soviet Union through numerous territorial take overs - Moldova, Georgia and threats towards the Baltic states, just for starters. Any reward of territory to putin by Trump (without Ukrainian OK) will simply justify his behavior and encourage further aggression. Many former Soviet republics see this.
Not sure Friday will move the needle very much as far as fighting goes. But on a broader level may serve to produce a crack in putin’s designs for continued war. As I and many other observers have noted, Russia is running out of resources to maintain operations at the current level and can hit the wall next year. When it takes Russia 18 months to capture 30 sq km of territory for instance, this is not going to be a war won any time soon.
Russia lacks the “trained” heavy armored maneuver forces it started out the war with. Today, Russian attack positions on motorcycles and stolen trucks, rushing across a no man’s land of FPV drones to try to gain a toehold. The front is not much different than WW1 - only newer weapons.
Russian inflation already starting to skyrocket further, resources becoming scarce and with new and more aggressive sanctions and tariffs, things will only become worse.
Again, a lot can happen as a result of the Friday meeting, especially in light of recent successes of Trump to quell other global hot spots. But if progress, it will be at a glacial pace.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 71 Shahed and other UAVs from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 59 drones over the north, south, and east. Twelve UAV impacts were recorded in six locations, with debris falling in one more.
Russian losses per 11/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1000 men
+4 tanks
+7 AFVs
+37 artillery
+2 MLRS
Summary —
Overarching wait for the Trump / putin summit this Friday.
Lowered drone strikes suggest either a new series of large ones coming, or very possibly that putin doesn’t want to poke the bear too hard prior to this Friday’s meeting. The last time putin miscalculated and launched massive drone/missile attacks against Ukraine - triggering significant response by Trump in support of Ukraine (materials and weapons) as well as escalation of the sanctions / tariff war.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Australia and New Zealand to recognize a palistanian ‘state’ in September with UK and France.
- IAF increasing airstrikes in and around Gaza City
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli army has killed Al Jazeera journalist Anas al-Sharif. An army spokesman reported that shortly before midnight via X and Sharif’s broadcaster confirmed his death shortly thereafter, along with that of six others, including four other employees of the news channel. They were killed when a press tent for a hospital in Gaza was attacked.
Sharif (28) was one of the most important active journalists in the Gaza Strip. He regularly shared stories and images about the impact of the Israeli attacks there.
OBSERVATION - It has also been documented that he and his cohorts also participated in the Oct 7 massacres along with other actions ICW Hamas terrorists. A terrorist wearing a press vest is still a terrorist.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
IAF air strikes all around Gaza City.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced that Australia will follow the lead of the United Kingdom, France, and Canada, in recognizing the State of Palestine during the U.N. General Assembly in September. “A two-state solution is humanity’s best hope to break the cycle of violence in the Middle East and to bring an end to the conflict, suffering and starvation in Gaza,” Albanese said in a statement, with him adding that Australia has received commitments from the Palestinian Authority (PA) including to hold general elections, continue to recognise Israel’s right to exist, and to demilitarize the Gaza Strip.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1954764123209695710?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters: Considering recognizing a Palestinian state, a decision will be made in September at the Cabinet meeting
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
How Hamas pulled off such a PR win in having its murder, rapes and kidnapping rewarded by western nations is in some ways remarkable. However, the move to recognize a Palestinian “state” is in many ways going to backfire (and already is). Hamas may gloat now, but it has redoubled the resolve of Israeli leaders to eliminate the terror organization and bring forth its worst case scenario - complete occupation of Gaza. Hamas and supporters saying such a move will draw Israel into a quagmire and defeat. I think that they speak too soon. Similar rhetoric has been spewed by Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran for months now - and we see how they ‘ve been dealt with. Hamas has effectively lost 60% of Gaza already. And as long as Trump stands firm behind Israel, all the bleats for a Palestinian ‘state’ will go no where.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Armenia and Iran to hold consultations today and tomorrow - Iranian Foreign Ministry
OBSERVATION - With the US lead peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran’s influence in Armenia has been struck a blow.
***
Iranian President Pezeshkian:
“We are facing a severe, unimaginable water crisis. If anyone has a solution, they should come forward. Sadly, we have no option but to shut off the water.”
OBSERVATION - Rumblings from the affected noting that the mullahs and their friends seem to have no restrictions. Iran playing with matches in the gunpowder bin. . . .
Lebanon -
Hezbollah supporters are organizing marches for the fourth consecutive day in Beirut’s southern suburbs, protesting the government’s decision to restrict the possession of weapons to the state.
OBSERVATION - Most visibly are the motorcycle parades through mostly Hezbollah controlled sectors of Lebanon and in particular Beirut.
RUMINT from Israeli sources suggest Hezbollah is demoralized and struggling at this stage to put up a front against the renewed efforts of the Lebanese govt to disarm them and push them out of positions of power.
IMHO, the Lebanese govt, though vocal about Israeli targeting of Hezbollah ammo and weapons stashes as well as leadership, is quietly thankful for the help in putting Hezbollah down and keeping them from redirecting these weapons and resources against the govt.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
See Armenian / Iranian consultations above under Iran
Thanks Godzilla.
HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.
Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
As warned yesterday, leftists are trying to rally the ‘troops’ in opposition to the federal take over of law enforcement in DC -
In the wake of President Donald Trumpannouncing measures on Monday morning to curb violence in the nation’s capital, protestors in Washington, DC claimed that the efforts, including placing the city’s police department under federal control, was provoking “violence.”
“The President has been trying to provoke violence here, right here in the black communities and the brown communities,” a woman told the crowd. “Having ICE kidnap our neighbors. Having the black community be harassed and profiled and want a response. We say hell no, we won’t go. When we say we won’t go, that mean we’re not going into their, to those mass incarcerate—into, into their prisons and enslavement. We won’t go into their, to their ICE, those, what he call, his beautiful centers that he got. We won’t go to where alligators live. Hell no, we won’t go.”
OBSERVATION - There could be large protests and potential violence come this weekend as federal officers and National Guard troops hit the streets. However, with a new sheriff in town, some of the violence may be dampened by a sudden dash of reality in that the arrestees will not find a revolving door at the police precinct or courts. Facing real jail time can change an attitude.
POLITICAL FRONT –
President Trump announced that the DC Police will be under direct federal control.
TRUMP: “We’re declaring a public safety emergency in the District of Columbia — and AG Pam Bondi is taking command of the Metropolitan Police Department as of this moment.”
800 National Guard troops to be deployed to Washington, Trump says. It says the troops will NOT have arrest authority, but a military police unit may play a role in detaining suspects while waiting for local LEO to make an arrest.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth states that the District of Columbia National Guard has been mobilized and will begin to be deployed in the streets of Washington, D.C. “in the coming week.”
OBSERVATION - See CW2 above for potential leftist push back. However, law is clear on the subject, that Trump has full grounds and rights to place the police under direct federal control. This is in part due to the special status of DC as a creature of being a federal “district”.
Talk of Trump doing the same to other cities may face serious legal challenges, given that they are independent, not dependent like DC.
China -
President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday evening extending the U.S.-China tariff truce for another 90 days, just hours before a midnight deadline that would have triggered massive tariff increases on Chinese goods. The order prevents high U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from snapping back into effect, giving negotiators until mid-November to reach a more permanent trade agreement.
https://redstate.com/joesquire/2025/08/11/trump-extends-china-tariff-deadline-by-90-days-n2192707
OBSERVATION - Give more time to nail out what will be a very complicated agreement. However the swerving back and forth has probably go China’s economic planners heads spinning.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Russian Armed Forces have launched a major offensive action against the frontline in the Donetsk Oblast of Eastern Ukraine, as we approach Friday’s potential peace talks in Alaska between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin. Some of the heaviest fighting of the war so far is reported to be taking place along the “Kramatorsk Axis” with elements of the Russian Ground Forces having achieved a significant breakthrough near Dobropillia, stretching roughly 10 miles behind Ukrainian Defensive Lines. Reinforcements are being redirected from other areas of the front, as both the Ukrainian and Russian Air Forces carry out extensive airstrikes against positions on and around the T-05-15 Highway.
Overnight, Russia launched 48 Shahed-type drones and four Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles at Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense destroyed 36 drones over the north and east. Twelve drones and three missiles struck seven locations.
Russian losses per 12/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+980 men
+5 tanks
+5 AFVs
+26 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 AD systems
Ukrainian attack drones mounted a strike on the Russian city of Stavropol tonight, hitting the JSC Monocystal plant. The factory, responsible for creating synthetic glass used in missile seekers and other IR imagers, suffered a fire on the premises.
Ukraine forces also pushed back Russians in areas along the border with Sumy Oblast.
Summary —
The Russia ‘breakthrough “ is the big OSINT item today. This is along part of the salient north of Pokrovsk and is directed mostly towards the north. OSINT analysts note that the Russians have a created a narrow corridor to the T-05-15 highway, a key Ukrainian logistical route for the defense of Pokrovsk. OSINT also doesn’t see any follow up Russian armor / mechanized units to exploit or any significant ground forces elements. Some unconfirmed reports on the ground suggest that the Russian forces involved are limited and facing diminished reinforcements.
The key is whether or not Russia has the reinforcements capable to hold the shoulders of the penetration open or if Ukraine is able to pinch it off, trapping the Russian elements. Russian air strikes via glide bombs is intensifying to support the penetration, Russian artillery is attempting to support as well. Ukraine has already been maneuvering forces into the region to stabilize the front and prevent the encirclement of Pokrovsk,
I think it is coincidental that the is happening just days before the Trump/putin summit. Is not blunted and turned back by Ukraine, it could represent the most significant terrain capture by Russia since 2024.
Europe / NATO General –
Ukraine continues to rally European allies to strongly state that Ukraine will not cede land to Russia in any agreement and that Ukraine must have a full say in the matter.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues preparations for incursion into Gaza City and the rest of Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
General observation - pro-hamas European and arab govts cry warnings over Israel’s announced actions in Gaza. Other voices counter saying it is what needs to be done.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Intense airstrikes around Gaza City and Khan Yunis.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
An extended period of quiet from Houthis
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
A Hamas delegation is reportedly meeting with Egyptian officials today in Cairo, allegedly to renew ceasefire negotiations as Israel is preparing for a major military incursion into Gaza City.
According to Al Arabiya, Hamas leaders are also seeking to reconcile with Egyptian officials after senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya accused Egypt last week of complicity in the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Sources close to Hamas told “Rai Al-Youm” newspaper that Egyptian pressure on Hamas “has reached unprecedented levels” over the past three days.
The sources stated that Cairo is accusing Hamas for the failure of Gaza ceasefire negotiations as it seeks to remain in power in Gaza, knowing that this would be a major obstacle in ending the war.
The Egyptian pressure reportedly began following statements by Hamas leader in Gaza and chief negotiator, Khalil Al-Hayya, who publicly criticized Egypt for preventing the entry of aid into Gaza.
Egyptian mediators were quoted as saying that the Cairo was deeply angered by Al-Hayya’s comments, considering them “out of line, inappropriate, and inflammatory.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas trying to patch up relations with Egypt in the face of Israel’s plans to strike directly at the remaining Hamas stronghold of Gaza City. Egypt has no love for the Hamas backing ‘palestinians ‘, given their history of attempted overthrow of the Egyptian govt and other equivalent acts of rebellion / aggression to Egyptian rule. The support Egypt has been giving has been more to appease the deep pocketed gulf nations as their proxy.
Numbers on the left are warning that Israel doesn’t have a chance to obtain their objectives in Gaza. They are forgetting that they said the same about Hezbollah and Iran and that Israel controls 60% of Gaza already.
Indicators that the more intensive operations are still about a month out, as logistics and population movement will take time. This will give Hamas an opportunity to raise a new PR effort to try to rally more international opposition to Israel.
All this is looking to converge in September - with the Israeli push in Gaza and hamasphiles in the UN declaring recognition of a Palestinian ‘state’.
Meanwhile, the increased air strikes in and around Gaza City are evidence of battlefield preparation for the eventual ground operations.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iraq’s Electricity Ministry says a shutdown at the Hamidiya plant in Anbar has caused a blackout across central and southern regions.
OBSERVATION - Iran’s mullahs are focusing on rapid rebuilding of their air defenses and nuclear program - all at the expense of the rest of the country. With he heat of summer coming full on, no electricity or water is going to hit and hit hard. Potential for civil unrest will be on the rise.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.
A Syrian government source told Al Jazeera: A delegation from the Syrian Democratic Forces arrived in Damascus for a new round of talks to complete the March 10 agreement.
OBSERVATIONS - The sunni / ISIS foundation of Syria’s current leadership is the main reason for groups like the SDF and Druze to move slowly in coming under the full control of Damascus. So far, the Syrian govts loose hand in stopping attacks like seen in the south against the Druze have not engendered any degree of trust to these other arab elements.