Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
Thanks Godzilla
HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.
Globalism / Great Reset –
AB 495 is formerly called “the Family Preparedness Act of 2025” and is authored by Democratic Assemblywoman Celeste Rodriguez. The bill would essentially allow an adult, who is not required to be a relative, to pick up a child from school or daycare. All they have to know is the child’s name and birthday, fill out an eight-question affidavit, say that they tried to reach out to the parents, and leave with the child—no proof required. It also allows that adult to make medical decisions on the child’s behalf.
OBSERVATION - Key info at link. One of the overarching goals of globalist and communists in general is to destroy the nuclear family and remove any control of children by their parents. This bill, should it pass endangers parental rights in a massive way.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
(FO) According to a senior police source, the FBI is leading an investigation into four previously undisclosed break-ins at Tennessee National Guard armories in late 2024. The four break-ins took place over a seven week span and thieves stole night vision and thermal devices, laser target designators, and other equipment. According to a confidential memo, evidence suggests that the thieves had help from an insider.
OBSERVATION - Not much on the open media on this yet. Items taken are important to covert / night operations.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Trump signs Pentagon directive to begin using military force against Latin American drug cartels — NYT
Trump’s clandestine directive orders the Pentagon to deploy military force, possibly on foreign soil, marking a drastic shift from law enforcement to military-led operations.
OBSERVATION - Not sure how well this will play out. Cartels may choose to start attacking on US soil in response, especially given the large numbers of central American based illegals in country .
MORE UNDER INTERNATIONAL GENERAL
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
According to a federal government memo, the Trump administration is finalizing the removal of a Biden government-era policy by directing federal agencies to scrub employees’ COVID-19 vaccine status from their records. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) is set to issue a directive instructing agencies to delete any data related to vaccine compliance, exemption requests, or noncompliance with mandates.The guidance also prohibits agencies from considering an individual’s COVID-19 vaccine status in hiring or employment decisions. “Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, we’re making sure the excesses of that era do not have lingering effects on federal workers,” OPM Director Scott Kupor stated.
Biden’s original Executive Order, issued shortly after he took office in 2021, required federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Following the revocation, OPM issued guidance advising agencies to ensure that job postings no longer included compliance with the rescinded mandate as a requirement.
OBSERVATION - Fortunately I retired before biden’s memo came out. It was another piece of govt tyranny that biden/deep state used to put the screws to Americans that was parallel in the private sector
POLITICAL FRONT –
(FO) President Donald Trump said he ordered the Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new Census which would exclude illegal aliens.
Biden-era Census Director Rob Santos resigned in February, and Trump has not yet nominated a replacement.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) quietly introduced the Making American Elections Great Again Act in July, which would allow the Trump administration to conduct a mid-decade census and only count U.S. citizens for apportionment of House seats and Electoral Votes.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller said that Democrats stood to make sizable gains if illegals are again counted in the census, and added that the 2020 Census gave them extra seats. “They [Democrats] stole 20 or 30 House seats by counting illegal aliens in the census, and now you have Democrats talking about, ‘Oh, Republicans can’t change their congressional maps!’ You have literally brought invaders into this country by the tens of millions to rig the results of the census, and the apportionment of congressional seats.”
OBSERVATION - Has the potential of a nuclear weapon against democrats. With illegals counted, states with high concentrations - California for one - gained districts over states without numerous illegals. This could titanically shift the distribution of vote to red states bigly.
***
Governor Greg Abbott (R) said the FBI is assisting the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) return Texas Democrats to the state Capitol. Abbott added that any Texas Democrats who received benefits for breaking the Texas House quorum will face removal from office and potential bribery charges.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has just filed with the Supreme Court to declare 13 Democrat House seats VACANT
“The rogue Democrat legislators who fled the state have abandoned their duties, leaving their seats vacant,” Paxton said
“These cowards deliberately sabotaged the constitutional process and violated the oath they swore to uphold.”
“I have asked the Texas Supreme Court to declare what has been clear from the beginning: that the runaway members have officially vacated their offices in the Texas House.”
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
U.S. President Donald J. Trump has directed the Pentagon to prepare options for use of military force against several drug cartels in Latin America that were designated as foreign terrorist organizations earlier this year, according to a senior U.S. official who spoke with the Wall Street Journal.
Options under discussion are said to be focused on special forces operations, intelligence support and precision targeting, with any military action to be coordinated with Mexico as well as other foreign partners in Central and South America.
During a phone call in April, President Trump reportedly pressured Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to allow the U.S. military to become more involved in the fight against the country’s drug cartels, according to people familiar with the discussions. U.S. and Mexican officials are currently drafting an agreement that would include intelligence sharing and enforcement coordination in acting against the cartels. Sheinbaum, who has said she expects it to be signed soon, has emphasized that “respecting our territory” is essential to the deal with the United States.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1954051528630628596?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
TRUMP Watch –
Trump and Putin to meet next Friday, Aug 15th in Alaska.
There will be more details in the coming days, but right now putin et al continues reiterate his demand for total control of eastern Ukraine as well as overarching influence on the government of what would remain “Ukraine”. Ukraine (and many former soviet union countries) are saying “Neyt” to effectively awarding Russia land for its aggression. See Ukraine below for further discussion.
Illegal Immigration –
Owner of “Trump Burgers” being deported for overstaying his tourist visa.
China -
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) warned the Philippines not to get involved in China’s “internal affairs” with Taiwan after Philippine President Marcos’ comments this week. “Geographical proximity and large overseas populations are not excuses for interfering in others’ internal affairs,” per the MFA.
Japan –
Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) will conduct its largest-ever live exercise with the U.S. Marine Corps next month, simulating the defense of remote islands across multiple regions of the country.
According to the GSDF, the exercise—known as “Resolute Dragon”—will run from September 11 to 25, taking place in Kyushu, Okinawa, Hokkaido, and on Iwo Jima in the Ogasawara Islands.
The drill will bring together about 12,000 personnel from Japan’s Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces, alongside roughly 1,900 troops from the U.S. Marine Corps and other American units.
https://defence-blog.com/japan-u-s-marines-to-hold-record-size-joint-drill/
OBSERVATION - Growth in exercise due mostly to the growing threat from China in the region.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
See Ukraine below on observations regarding the Ukraine war and bargaining issues.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 47 Shahed and other UAVs plus two Iskander-K cruise missiles. Targets included frontline areas in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions, and missiles struck Dnipro. Ukrainian air defenses downed one Iskander-K and 16 drones, while 31 UAV impacts were recorded at 15 locations.
Russian losses per 09/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+940 men
+5 tanks
+1 AFVs
+41 artillery
+1 AD system
This morning, Ukrainian attack drones successfully penetrated more than 1200 km into Russian airspace, successfully striking a key Russian logistics facility in Nizhnekamsk a Shahed storage terminal in Kzylyul, Tatarstan, hitting a logistics hub with ready-to-use drones and foreign components.
Summary —
In light of the developing potential meeting between Trump and putin, the following assessment by ISW does better than me in outlining the situation on the ground.
Putin is likely attempting to frame Russia’s seizure of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts as inevitable in order to push Ukraine and the West to capitulate to Kremlin demands. Russia’s occupation of the four oblasts is neither inevitable nor imminent, as Russian forces will face serious operational obstacles in what are likely to be multi-year endeavors.
ISW assesses that Russia has yet to seize roughly 6,500 square kilometers of Donetsk Oblast, or about 25 percent of the region.
Russian advances aimed at enveloping Pokrovsk have accelerated in recent weeks, but Russian forces have spent the last 18 months trying to seize an area of about 30 square kilometers.
Russian forces have been fighting to seize Chasiv Yar (pre-war population of 12,000) since April 2024, and it took Russian forces 26 months to advance 11 kilometers from western Bakhmut to western Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces in the Chasiv Yar and Toretsk directions are increasingly threatening the southern tip of Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast at Kostyantynivka.
Kostyantynivka is roughly 30 kilometers from Slovyansk, the northern tip of the fortress belt, and the cities in the fortress belt (Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk) collectively had a pre-war population of roughly 373,000.
Russian forces have not demonstrated the capacity to seize cities of this size since mid-2022, and ISW continues to assess that the seizure of the fortress belt will be a difficult, multiyear effort.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1953844108574777842?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Future Russian operations to seize the entirety of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts will require significant river crossing operations that Russian forces have historically struggled to complete since 2022.
Russian forces still have to seize roughly 7,200 square kilometers of Zaporizhia Oblast (about 26 percent of the region) and roughly 7,000 square kilometers in Kherson Oblast (about 26 percent of the region).
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1953871330031313177?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
As they note, Russia is struggling and expending a lot of money, people and equipment for the limited gains. I can’t read Trump’s mind and cannot conceive Ukraine giving up a state like Donetsk when Russia only controls a small fraction of the area.
Now from Ukraine’s view, losing land is a non-starter and Ukraine’s president said he is ready for talks, but warned against “stillborn decisions” made without Kyiv.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said his country deserves a “just peace” based on international law and respect for territorial integrity.
Sybiha was responding to media reports that US-Russian peace talks are considering asking Kyiv to cede control of the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk to Moscow.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already said the plans are unworkable, labeling them “stillborn decisions” by the US and Russian sides.
Sybiha said: “Russia must not be rewarded for starting this war,” lamenting that the Kremlin “continues its terror against civilians, ignores deadlines, and shows no genuine interest in ending the war.”
He said Kyiv remains open to “meaningful dialogue and real solutions negotiated together with Ukraine.”
IMHO, its anyone’s guess who’s gonna blink. Should the fighting continue, the constant assessment is that Russia is facing multi-year efforts to obtain the territories it demands. Russia doesn’t have multi years, and generally assessment is that 2026 Russia faces steep obstacles in sustaining the current level of operations.
Europe / NATO General –
Baltic leaders have condemned efforts to pressure Ukraine into giving up territory, warning that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia could be next, the Financial Times reports. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said, “If borders can be changed by force, no one can feel safe. Sovereignty and territorial integrity are cornerstones of global stability. We will not tolerate aggression in Ukraine or anywhere else.”
OBSERVATION - Former Soviet Union nations know the terror putin and a resurrected “soviet” Russia pose.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel intensifies bombing around Gaza City
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israel prepositioning forces for the next stage of fighting in Gaza
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Kinda abbreviated Israel section this morning. Israel moving forward with plans to capture Gaza City and the rest of Gaza as necessary to obtain the surrender and destruction of Hamas and release of hostages.
On the other side, Hamas’ video treatment of hostages from released videos have silenced for the moment the anti-Israeli bleats of European supporters. Israel will face a massive PR effort against its next phase in Gaza.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
In shocking news, it has been announced that Trump has brokered a peace accord/deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In it the US is moving to strengthen cooperation in energy, trade, and technology, including artificial intelligence.
Azerbaijan’s Aliyev, Trump, and Armenia’s Pashinyan.
“They fought for 35 years, now they are friends,” Trump says.
OBSERVATION - Clearly coming from out of the blue.
Thanks Godzilla.
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