HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.
No posts - Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18) Well, hopefully I can get a weekend summary out on Monday.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
(FO) Obama-era National Security Council officials Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson said they and other former officials no longer expect U.S. military leaders to resist President Trump’s “misuse” of the military.
NYT editorial FO cites is here -
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/opinion/trump-military-power.html
OBSERVATION - Theirs as well as my analysis it the continued attempt to establish a foundation for mobilizing there left even as far as violent actions. The attempt is to delegitimize these NG deployments as an unconstitutional and tyrannical action, necessitating escalated response from the left.
So far, Trump’s NG deployments - LA and now DC have been tightly linked to clear law and use. Newscum’s lawsuit in kalifornia will eventually crash on the rocks and the DC deployment is recognized as legit by many (I’ll say moderate) democrats.
***
The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) numbers are in for July 2025. This is the first month in almost six years that the adjusted NICS numbers estimate less than one million firearm sales.
The adjusted figures, as computed by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), are almost 22,000 sales short of one million at 978,731.
In July of 2024, the NSSF calculated adjusted gun sales of 1,064,791. These figures show an eight percent drop in gun sales from last July. The NICS checks themselves fell by only four percent, from 2,021,235 to 1,936,621. About half of NICS checks are being used for purposes other than firearm sales.
OBSERVATION - With Trump firmly in place and the threatened riots failing to gain traction, the pressure to arm have dropped off. Same seen in ammo prices, now the lowest in years. However, one cannot become complacent and now is a good time to make sure you are competent with your firearms and not wait until SHTF.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group returned home after 269 days at sea, continuing a trend of longer-than-normal deployments for West Coast-based carriers.
***
According to Reuters, the U.S. Department of Defense has ordered the deployment of additional air and naval forces to the Southern Caribbean Sea to counter drug cartels operating in Latin America. An official added that the assets committed would include several P-8A “Poseidon” Maritime Patrol and Surveillance Aircraft, as well as at least one warship and an attack submarine, with them to be used not just to carry out intelligence and surveillance operations, but also as a launching pad for targeted strikes if a decision is made by President Trump.
OBSERVATION - Eyebrows raised over the last statement. Remember, Trump reportedly has directed special operation forces to directly engage drug cartel operations / groups in Central and S America.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A rogue, Biden-appointed judge who had articles of impeachment for corruption filed against him in February had his preliminary injunction preventing Pres. Trump from saving taxpayers billions of dollars lifted by a federal appeals court on Wednesday.
In a 2-1 decision, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia voted to lift U.S. District Judge Amir Ali’s order that the Trump Administration release the full amount of $2 billion of foreign assistance that Congress had appropriated for the 2024 budget year. Judge Florence Pan, also a Biden appointee, cast the lone dissenting vote.
In the majority opinion, Judge Karen LeCraft Henderson noted that the full financial import to taxpayers of lifting Judge Ali’s injunction could be as great as $6 billion:
OBSERVATION - Many decisions like this by activists judges at the district level are being overturned by higher courts on a consistent basis. They are becoming not much more than a speed bump.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Italian officials were warned of possible Russian sabotage at Aviano air base, which hosts US forces and stores nuclear weapons. A female suspect was stopped after allegedly photographing the site. Arson attacks were also reported nearby. An investigation is underway and the PM has been briefed.
https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1956303663900639369
OBSERVATION - If this is true, not the best optics on the day before the big Alaska meeting.
TRUMP Watch –
Show time in Alaska
Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov says no documents are expected to be signed after today’s summit with Trump in Alaska, adding that “nothing was prepared and it’s unlikely there will be a document.” He said Putin will outline any understandings reached at a joint press conference, though Trump has suggested the presser might not happen if the talks go poorly.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1956301038715093024
OBSERVATION - Trump has pulled no punches with other leaders at post meeting pressers, and depending on how much putin ticks him off today, the presser could contain a lot of fireworks, if there is one.
Illegal Immigration –
Border enforcement under the Trump administration resulted in historic record lows in the month of July, according to the latest data shared by the Trump White House as well as U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/08/13/trumps-golden-age-border-enforcement-sees-record-breaking-lows-in-july-lowest-level-ever-recorded/
OBSERVATION - Incredible numbers in such a short period of time.
***
President Donald Trump said Thursday that approximately 275,000 illegal immigrants have been purged from the Social Security database, as well as tens of thousands more beneficiaries over the age of 160 who were still receiving checks.
OBSERVATIONS - Could be the tip of the iceberg IMHO
Asia General –
Cambodia / Thailand
Threat advisory has been removed due to stability in the situation over the past month.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight into Aug 15, Russia launched 97 Shahed/decoy drones and 2 Iskander-M missiles at multiple regions. Ukrainian defenses downed or suppressed 63 drones; missiles and 34 drones hit 13 locations..
Russian losses per 15/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+940 men
+2 tanks
+3 AFVs
+40 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 aircraft
Major Ukrainian long-range drone raid into Russia reported tonight, with local channels already reporting impacts in Kursk.
Ukraine has now maintained nearly two weeks of major nightly raids, with tonight’s reportedly the largest so far as warnings go off across western Russia.
Ukrainian drones struck the Russian seaport of Olya on the Caspian Sea, heavily damaging and partially sinking the Port Olya-4, a vessel responsible for transporting key munitions and Shahed drone parts from Iran.
Russia’s JSC “Elastik” explosives plant reportedly suffered a catastrophic explosion this morning, destroying a gunpowder workshop and causing dozens of casualties, per Russian state media.
Ukraine had confirmed strikes at Syzran oil refinery and HQ of 51st army of Russian Armed Forces in Yenakiyeve This is the 8th Russian oil refinery to suffer major damage this month.
The War Zone reports, citing US Defense Intelligence Agency assessments, that Russia has upgraded its Iskander and KN-23 missiles, making Patriot air defense systems less effective. The missiles are now said to carry “radar decoys” and can fly quasi-ballistic trajectories, combining ballistic flight with maneuvering to complicate interception.
Summary —
Ukraine drones were busy overnight and many hits may be on the quiet side as to not embarrass putin in his meeting with Trump today. Russian drone attack levels have been relatively low this past week, perhaps so as not to poke the bear with the talks as well.
Looks like Russia’s “breakout” has been contained and is being reduced. While significant in that it showed localized weaknesses in the Ukraine defensive line, it is also significant in that Russian doesn’t have the capability to mass armor / mech forces to exploit a break thru like this.
Speaking of Russia ‘mechanized’ forces, reading reports of a defeated “Mechanized” assault by Russian forces. This ‘mechanized’ force consisted of a tank, cargo trucks, a few APC and motorcycles. The assault was stopped.
Now pause and think about this. The quality of Russian ‘mechanized’ forces have devolved to this rag tag operation.
Russia is relying heavily on numerical superiority of troops and glide bomb attacks, and no longer on an artillery or armor edge. This trend is why many analysts are seeing Russian military efforts hitting the wall in 2026.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Mobilization for the next phase of Gaza operations is beginning
- Controversial new settlements in Judea and Samaria to begin.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
IAF continues to hammer areas around Gaza City and new evacuation orders are being given.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announces start of construction of 3,401 housing units in Ma’ale Adumim’s E1 area, severing Palestinian territorial continuity between Ramallah and Bethlehem and isolating East Jerusalem
Speaking at a press conference in Ma’ale Adumim, Smotrich said the plan includes 3,401 new housing units and could begin within months if there are no delays. He framed the project as a direct response to international recognition efforts of a Palestinian state. “Those who try to recognize a Palestinian state will get an answer from us on the ground — not in documents or declarations but in facts: homes, neighborhoods, roads and more Jewish families building their lives,” Smotrich said.
The Yesha Council, representing Jewish settlements in the West Bank, said it will push Netanyahu to apply sovereignty over the entire West Bank at the next cabinet meeting. A letter signed by 19 council heads criticized what they called “Israeli hesitation” which they said fuels international support for a Palestinian state.
United States offered a more cautious response. A State Department spokesperson said a stable West Bank “keeps Israel secure and is in line with this administration’s goal to achieve peace in the region.”
OBSERVATION - Pushback on an entirely different level. This development/settlement will certainly put a kink in the demands by the two-staters for east Jerusalem to be its capitol. Should the two staters get more aggressive in their demands, full annexation of Judea and Samaria by Israel is on the table.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Over the past three weeks, only 8 ballistic missiles and 8 drones have been launched by the Houthis against Israel. No recent attacks in the Red Sea region.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UN Human Rights Office: Israel’s decision to build a new settlement in East Jerusalem is an illegal step.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Intermission regionally as Israel preps for its next phase in Gaza. IMHO there is increasing pressure on Israel / Netanyahu to finish it. The last operation was presented as the closure for Gaza, and it fell short. Israel has to go honey badger mode and wrap things up.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
With loss of electrical power and soon water supplies will be dry, Iran is facing even greater threat - Snapbacks
If the snapback mechanism is activated, all UN sanctions imposed on Iran between 2006 and 2010 would return. These include a full arms embargo, a total ban on uranium enrichment, a ban on ballistic missile tests capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and a ban on transferring technology and technical assistance in the missile field. In addition, it would impose asset freezes and international travel bans on Iranian officials and entities, and countries would be allowed to search Iranian cargo planes and ships of the national shipping company to find prohibited goods.
“An existential threat,” is how a senior Iranian official described the possibility of the powers activating the snapback mechanism. “The Islamic Republic has neither the economic nor military capability to withstand the return of UN sanctions. This will cause the people to protest again, and this time it could be different,” he told the Telegraph from Tehran. “Sanctions are more damaging than war,” another senior Iranian official added. “The Supreme National Security Council has asked the presidency to find a way to talks before it’s too late.”
OBSERVATION - The mullah’s fixation for war with Israel is blinding them to the growing challenge in Iran itself. They may find their bubble burst in ways most unpleasant
***
The city of Tabriz has announced a water outage from 4 to 6 PM in the city, while asking citizens to sharply reduce their consumption of water.
Temperatures in Khuzestan today reach 51 degrees Celsius (124 degrees Fahrenheit) as power outages continue throughout the province.
One county in northeast Iran told state media sources that the sales of wheat have plummeted 75% due to drought and power outages.
Lebanon -
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem: We refuse to surrender our weapons while Israeli attacks continue. There will be no “life” in Lebanon if the government tries to confront Hezbollah. The Lebanese government’s decision to disarm us could lead to a “civil war.” He is prepared to fight a “battle” to preserve his weapons
***
The IDF reports it struck multiple Hezbollah tunnels in southern Lebanon. Many believed to be arms and ammo depots.
OBSERVATION - Israel continues to dominate Hezbollah and keep them in the hole. They refuse to give up their weapons, then Israel will blow them up. Very simple message. This facilitates and strengthens the Lebanese govt thru Israeli disarmament of Hezbollah. Beirut may complain about the air strikes, but I’m pretty sure that secretly they are thankful for the help.
Thanks Godzilla.
HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will continue to have the potential to be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.
Today contains stuff the past few days while out that caught my eye as being important.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Illinois has become the first state in the nation to require annual mental health screenings for all schoolchildren beginning in the third grade, under a new law signed by Governor J.B. Pritzker. The initiative, set to take effect in 2027, has sparked heated debate among parents, educators, medical professionals, and privacy advocates. Supporters claim it will provide critical early intervention for struggling children, while critics argue it represents an unprecedented government intrusion into the private lives of families and a potential boon for pharmaceutical companies.
Renowned psychiatrist Dr. Peter Breggin, a prominent critic of mainstream psychiatry, denounced the plan as a pathway to “mass medicalization” of children. He argued that pharmaceutical companies and organized psychiatry are colluding to create new markets by labeling children as mentally ill and prescribing them neuro-toxic drugs with severe side effects. Breggin warned that stigmatizing children with diagnoses could demoralize them and trap them in a lifelong identity as “mental patients.”
Journalist Abigail Shrier, known for exposing what she calls the harmful effects of transgender ideology on youth, also blasted the program. She predicted that large numbers of Illinois children would be falsely flagged as mentally ill and funneled into treatment systems unnecessarily, creating devastating long-term consequences for families and children alike.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2025-08-17-illinois-mandates-schools-test-students-mental-health.html
OBSERVATION - Finger of globalists continue to worm their way into willing elements across the world. In this case, Pritzker has provided an opening. The potential for abuse is pretty clear, even from the initial details. As noted a the link, particularly hard hit will be homeschooled and private schools - a great target for the globalist loving teachers unions and progressive govts.
In the end, expect massive lawsuits to spring out of this action.
***
An investigation conducted by the World Economic Forum’s board on Friday cleared the body’s founder Klaus Schwab and his wife of wrongdoing, after a probe into whistleblower complaints.
“Following a thorough review of all facts, the Board has concluded that ... there is no evidence of material wrongdoing by Klaus Schwab,” the board announced.
In April, the Wall Street Journal reported that an anonymous letter sent to the prestigious institution’s board of directors accused Schwab and his wife Hilde of mixing their personal affairs with Forum resources without proper oversight.
OBSERVATION - The white wash
RELATED -
On 15 August, with the completion of the investigation into Klaus Schwab and his wife Hilde, Brabeck-Letmathe has stepped down from his role as interim Chairman.
On the same day, the World Economic Forum announced the appointment of Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, as interim co-chairman alongside André Hoffmann, Vice Chairman of pharmaceutical and diagnostic giant Roche. This appointment takes effect immediately.
OBSERVATION - New generation of evil doers, particularly with the emplacement of Fink. Both co-chairs have been the hands on elements of the WEF affecting the global economy. Hoffmann - big pharma gets their boy as well.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
***
Crowds of mostly older whites protested across DC yesterday, demanding that the National Guard leave the city. No significant acts of violence noted, though in some instances protestors got into the face of NG elements and blocked vehicle movements.
Other misc protests notes elsewhere as well. Violence levels remained subdued.
OBSERVATION - The left continues to search for a triggering event to hopefully spring forth a repeat of the Floyd riots. Recent NG call ups have resulted in some protests, but nothing gaining traction. The reported demographics of the DC protests - older white liberals, lacking the presence of the majority of colored classes - is not going to go very far.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
With the majority of the tariffs now fully in place, economists watching closely for inflationary impacts.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Some Texas democrats are threatening to stay AWOL until Kalifornia’s redistricting has been completed.
TRUMP Watch –
Big show on today with European leaders and discussion on next step with Russia and Ukraine.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Trying to make heads or tails of the much abbreviated putin/Trump meeting Friday. Theories abound about what was presented / discussed. At the roughest, putin is holding to his June 2024 demands for the surrendering a third of Ukraine to Russia, no NATO membership, and a host of other issues. Zelenskyy ( and european leaders) is unlikely to accept.
Questions of what Trump offered circle around the final surrender of Crimea and a freeze on current lines plus other items.
Trump is meeting with european heads of state, could clarify that these offers are.
Meanwhile, putin appears to have achieved an initial goal of sowing confusion and discord among Ukraine and its supporters, weakening resolve.
If putin gets his demands, there is nothing to prevent him from taking the time to regroup his military and continuing the attack at a later date.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range with a cooling trend towards there end of the period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Most recent - overnight, Russia launched 4 ballistic missiles and 140 drones against Ukraine. Air defense downed or suppressed 88 Shaheds and decoy UAVs across the north, south, east and center. Strikes were recorded at 25 locations in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Kyiv regions.
Russian losses per 18/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+940 men
+2 tanks
+5 AFVs
+43 artillery
+1 MLRS
Ukrainian drones attacked occupied Donetsk at night. Lots of explosions were reported, one big fire could be seen.
Ukrainian paratroopers from the 79th and 82nd Air Assault Brigades liberated the villages of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka in Donetsk region. Russians reportedly suffered heavy losses
Summary —
Peace talks will be on the front burner today and likely the rest of the week. With all the competing views and reports, I have no clue as to which way they will go.
On the ground, local Ukrainian counter attacks have been regaining ground lost over the past week. Further evidence that Russia doesn’t have the capability to exploit and drive deeper.
Russian drone/missile attacks have been relatively low, but with the summit over, I expect some large attacks this week some time
Europe / NATO General –
These leaders are reported to attend the meetings on the Ukraine war:
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
- Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni
- Finnish President Alexander Stubb
- French President Emmanuel Macron
- NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutt
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer
- Ukraine president Zelenskyy
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- More hostage / ceasefire movements.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Hamas terrorist organization negotiators in Egypt have reportedly eased some of the demands that previously derailed hostage talks, an Arab diplomat and an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Friday. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the Arab leader cautioned that despite this shift, significant differences remain between the parties
Arab mediators have since conveyed to Israeli officials that Hamas may have softened its stance. However, Israeli officials reportedly responded that they are no longer interested in a partial agreement. Jerusalem has indicated that Israel will only call off its planned military operation in Gaza City if Hamas meets its key demands.
RELATED - Hamas has received a new Gaza ceasefire proposal and will respond today, Al-Araby reports. Al-Akhbar says Palestinian factions in Cairo are reviewing Israel’s conditions: Hamas disarmament, exile of leaders, return of all hostages, Israeli security control over 25% of Gaza, and a new government excluding both Hamas and Fatah that recognizes peace with Israel. Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya insists disarmament would only be possible within a political process leading to a Palestinian state.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Israel’s Defense Minister:
“We are imposing an air and naval blockade on them (Houthi) that is very painful for them, and this morning we attacked infrastructure and energy targets. This is just the beginning. The rest will be strong and painful.”
***
The IDF says air defenses intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile fired at Israel.
***
A missile fired by an Israeli naval vessel struck a Houthi power plant, setting it on fire
Local reports in Yemen indicate that leaders of the Houthis were present in the control room of the power station when it was attacked this morning by the Israeli Navy.
(The Telegraph)
OBSERVATIONS - Houthi influence has been minimal lately. Could be the cumulative effects of the economic strikes taking their toll as there are critical shortages of electricity and drinking water.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The recent hostage/ceasefire rumblings are unlikely to get anywhere in the short term. Evidence that Hamas is losing control over the famine narrative and is trying to play its hostage card in an effort to delay the next phase of Israeli action in Gaza.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
A senior Iranian lawmaker declared that Iran now possesses the capability to strike targets across the globe - including the United States and Canada - using advanced long-range missiles, which he claimed are capable of inflicting devastation equivalent to nuclear weaponry.
“When we say that the Khorramshahr-5 [missile] has been upgraded, and has a range of 12,000 km, a velocity of several Machs, and a 2-ton payload, and that it can hit a target with precision - do you know what this means? It means that the kind of [damage] normally caused by 2-3 nuclear bombs could also be achieved with 10 Khorramshahr-5 missiles. This is deterrence. If the U.S. or Canada or any other country plans to attack you, you can strike them back, [on their soil],” Zohrevand said.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/413442
OBSERVATION - One of Irans long range goals is to develop reliable missiles that can strike the US. The current US defense missile system was designed based on that growing threat.
Another part of the interview notes that Iran is threatening to move some sort of naval asset within range of the US and fire from sea. The potential for a shipping container based missile platform has been one bantered around for many years now and there are prototypes out there. It has been considered to also be a platform for a nuclear weapon, smuggled into the US, hence radiation surveying equipment at US ports.
***
Iran’s Water Resources Management Company:
In 12 important and central dams in Iran for supplying drinking water and agricultural water, the water reserves are below 10%.
(Iran International)
OBSERVATION - Not only facing loss of drinking water but an agricultural disaster as well.
Imagine
- 125 degrees
- no power
- no water
But the ruling mullahs have both.
***
Explosion and large fire at Behran oil storage facility in Baqerabad Refinery, Shahr-e Rey The second explosion at an oil refinery in Iran today (yesterday)
OBSERVATION - Doesn’t have to be sabotage, but conditions are ripe.
Iraq -
The Iraqi News Agency, citing an advisor to the Prime Minister, reports that the mission of the international coalition forces in Baghdad and at Ain al-Asad base will conclude in September.
Lebanon -
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem threatens civil war, threatens there will be “no life” in Lebanon if the government tries to disarm Hezbollah.
He added that Hezbollah and the Amal Movement were delaying street protests while there is still room for a political resolution.
Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam reiterates slams Hezbollah for threatening civil war, reiterates that no non-state parties in Lebanon are authorized to carry weapons.
Western diplomatic sources responded this evening to threats by Hezbollah Secretary-General Naeem Qassem on the “Al-Jadeed” channel: “Hezbollah must understand that it lost the war and cannot impose its conditions to stop it. Lebanon must commit to an international agenda to gain support and recover.”
OBSERVATION - The potential for a limited civil war remains, however, Hezbollah will continue to face Israeli strikes on weapons and munitions storages sites, harming Hezbollah’s capabilities.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
The new Syrian regime has agreed to allow a humanitarian corridor from Quneitra, near the Israel–Syria border, to the Druze province of As-Suwayda.
OBSERVATION - As previously noted, the Syrian govt has essentially sought to completely isolate the Druze region in S Syria with essentially a blockade. How willing the govt is to keep the route secure is another thing. Special note is the origin near Israel.