Battleground states: Kamala has no path to 270

All polls, no cherry-picking, from Real Clear Politics | Dangus

[dangus]

In this map, red does NOT mean more Republican than pink, and pink does NOT mean more Republican than gray. Red represents a state that has not been considered a battleground state. Pink represents a state that had been considered a battleground, but polls show Harris uncompetitive, less so than Biden. Gray represents states without Trump vs Harris polling available. The point is that there is no path to 270 without a huge swing towards the Democrats, far larger than Trump's national lead.

There are a dearth of Trump-against-Harris polls in every state, but the key point is that Harris performs worse than Biden, so even if the poll is weighted poorly or by chance is more Democratic or Republican than it should be, we can still see how it just got HARDER, rather than easier for the Dems to get to 270 (actually, probably 269) electoral votes to win the election. That is, selecting Harris is not likely to get a BETTER result, but rather a desperate shake-up, like playing poker and giving back that king in the hopes of getting a third deuce.

There is one caveat: it is possible that corrupt pollsters were trying to keep Biden in the race or settle discord within the party by falsely claiming he would outperform Harris. That said, these are the battleground polls that included Trump-Harris matchups:

A Fox News poll of Georgia found Biden losing by three points, a very close race, but Harris losing by ten.

A Fox News 13 poll of Florida on July 18th shows Biden trailing by 6 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

An Insider Advantage poll of Arizona on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 5 points, but Harris trailing by 6.

An Insider Advantage poll of Pennsylvania on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 4 points, but Harris trailing by 7; on the other hand, A Democrat PAC poll by Public Policy Polling (fired by the DEMOCRATS!!! for skwing polls to make the Dems look better) shows Harris only down 2, whereas Biden is down 5.

An Insider Advantage poll of Nevada on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 7 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

A July 18 poll by Public Policy Polling shows Trump up in Michigan by 3 over Biden, and 5 over Harris. This one doesn't tell us much, but so as not to cherry-pick, a July 13 American Greatness poll of Wisconsin shows Biden down 2, but Harris only 1, so we keep Wisconsin gray.

[dangus]

So the panicking is just for show? They can cheat a certain amount, but even if they could cheat a HUGE amount, wouldn’t they still want the election to LOOK good?

[TexasFreeper2009]

In my opinion, this is an easy way to get RID of Harris. Go ahead and let her get wiped out by Trump in November, and she is no longer an issue they have to deal with in 2028.

[DownInFlames]

Just sit until it comes out that her great grandfather was a slave owner.

[DownInFlames]

Trump will sweep all the south.

[KC_Conspirator]

I do believe that is a huge concern for them, like that fraud Sherrod Brown.

[Brookhaven]

What does tan mean?

[Preachin']

How do you know they weren’t planning for this? It seems that they purposely pounded Biden in order to make him drop out.

I truly think they hoped to have Kamala instead and/or have infighting at the democrats convention.

It’s difficult for me to believe President Trump didn’t calculate the move in advance.

[HamiltonJay]

She is no threat in 28. She has zero shot at the White House unles Hiden steps down or dies before January 2025

[Brookhaven]

Conversely, every revelation about Kamala will be an October surprise.

She won’t have time to counter them.

The Trump campaign should already be making ads to define Kamala. She’s really a blank slate at this point.

[Brilliant]

I would not count her out. But I just heard a pollster say this is less about winning the White House now and more about generating enthusiasm for the down ballot races.

[jmacusa]

And again we're not all liberals here in NJ! I'm so bloody sick of hearing that bs and I'm just as fed up with snotty nosed Canadians and their smug attitudes towards us.

My daughter-in-law FLED Calgary 20 odd years ago and has never looked back.

She hates Canadians.

[xkaydet65]

A little to early to be certain and celebrating. Big donors will give big bucks. And all the needs to be done os for the new ballots to be printed and marked.

[xkaydet65]

A little to early to be certain and celebrating. Big donors will give big bucks. And all the needs to be done os for the new ballots to be printed and marked.

[ModelBreaker]

CNN, MSNBC, and the networks will suddenly reveal that whoever is the D nominee is the smartest, most intelligent, and most ethical person in the whole world. Except Barack Obama, who is better.

[Gena Bukin]

The Trump campaign should already be making ads to define Kamala. She’s really a blank slate at this point.

They've already dropped ads against Kamala.

Wow the Trump campaign wasn’t just anticipating Kamala — they were fully prepared to respond. (Twitter)

[Owen]

She will not perform worse than Biden would have in nearly every imaginable scenario.

Biden’s / Harris’ voters are voting Anti Trump. So it doesn’t matter who the opponent is.

There IS one way this could be damaged. Kennedy is going to re-register Dem and compete for the nomination. If they treat him with disrespect, he will such away many more votes than would have been his pre dropout.

[struggle]

But she’s unburdened by what was...

[Cottonhill]

You are correct.

[dangus]

Gray? That means that it’s a highly contested state that does not yet have evidence that Trump is significantly lead Harris.

[central_va]

She just isn’t very clean or articulate.