Battleground states: Kamala has no path to 270

All polls, no cherry-picking, from Real Clear Politics | Dangus

[dangus]

In this map, red does NOT mean more Republican than pink, and pink does NOT mean more Republican than gray. Red represents a state that has not been considered a battleground state. Pink represents a state that had been considered a battleground, but polls show Harris uncompetitive, less so than Biden. Gray represents states without Trump vs Harris polling available. The point is that there is no path to 270 without a huge swing towards the Democrats, far larger than Trump's national lead.

There are a dearth of Trump-against-Harris polls in every state, but the key point is that Harris performs worse than Biden, so even if the poll is weighted poorly or by chance is more Democratic or Republican than it should be, we can still see how it just got HARDER, rather than easier for the Dems to get to 270 (actually, probably 269) electoral votes to win the election. That is, selecting Harris is not likely to get a BETTER result, but rather a desperate shake-up, like playing poker and giving back that king in the hopes of getting a third deuce.

There is one caveat: it is possible that corrupt pollsters were trying to keep Biden in the race or settle discord within the party by falsely claiming he would outperform Harris. That said, these are the battleground polls that included Trump-Harris matchups:

A Fox News poll of Georgia found Biden losing by three points, a very close race, but Harris losing by ten.

A Fox News 13 poll of Florida on July 18th shows Biden trailing by 6 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

An Insider Advantage poll of Arizona on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 5 points, but Harris trailing by 6.

An Insider Advantage poll of Pennsylvania on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 4 points, but Harris trailing by 7; on the other hand, A Democrat PAC poll by Public Policy Polling (fired by the DEMOCRATS!!! for skwing polls to make the Dems look better) shows Harris only down 2, whereas Biden is down 5.

An Insider Advantage poll of Nevada on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 7 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

A July 18 poll by Public Policy Polling shows Trump up in Michigan by 3 over Biden, and 5 over Harris. This one doesn't tell us much, but so as not to cherry-pick, a July 13 American Greatness poll of Wisconsin shows Biden down 2, but Harris only 1, so we keep Wisconsin gray.

[OttawaFreeper]

I wonder if New Hampshire and even New Jersey are winnable now, as well as Minnesota.

[HamiltonJay]

Replacing Biden was never about the White House… it’s about trying to save the down ballot from massacre

[bimboeruption]

What a surprise!

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[VTenigma]

It’s not going to be Kammy, Hillary’s got this and then the cheat machine goes to 11.

[Liz]

“This was the dire strait Biden was looking at.”

CNN analyst John King points to the map: Trump was already assured of getting the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Trump could even get 330 electorals. There’s 16 weeks to Election Day. In sixteen weeks we count the votes.

”It’s tough to change a map like this in that amount of time.”

[Sacajaweau]

newsome...

[Husker24]

We won’t know until new polls come out, but I’m guess she very much does.

[Vendome]

No reason to go Kobra Kai

This sweep is inevitable

[DugwayDuke]

HamiltonJay wrote: “Replacing Biden was never about the White House… it’s about trying to save the down ballot from massacre”

True and pushing Kamala is about saving the 2028 race. A dismal showing for Kamala in 2024 and she’s dead meat for 2028. Meanwhile all the other democrats can stand back, avoid a debacle while preparing for 2028.

[UnwashedPeasant]

PA can manufacture 500,000 extra democrat votes overnight.

[VTenigma]

As the sacrificial lamb maybe. I still think Hillary. She’s sporting a fresh facelift and tummy tuck. Just like Biden in 2020.

[Restless]

I hope that’s true, but it’s a bit early to make such a proclamation. A lot of American voters are fickle, so who knows what this new political landscape will look like. Also, there’s no guarantee she will even be the replacement.

[Tennessee Nana]

If ya dont vote for KarMarLar then you aint black....

[Luke21]

Forget North Carolina. That one isn’t happening for the Democrats.

[exnavy]

No democratic political person can beat Trump, without fraud.

[dowcaet]

I don’t think any of the “stars” in the Democrat Party are going to take a risk and enter the race. I believe Harris will get the nod and be sent to a decisive defeat in November. Saving the Senate and retaking the House are the top priorities.

[CivilWarBrewing]

How many ballots submitted by ILLEGALS will STILL show “Biden” as the chosen candidate? LOL

[dpetty121263]

I fear this could turn out to be a GOP disaster. The Trump\Vance campaign had better be shifting gears fast as they SHOULD have been preplanning 3 weeks ago for this outcome, I fear they have not. Talks are in progress of picking some younger Man to step in with experience for VP, also an open convention could wind up being a dog fight and might get Big Mike in the mix and I do not think Trump can overcome Big Mike as Obama is keeping his powder dry.

[TexasFreeper2009]

what a messed up map, there is no world where Michigan is further right than North Carolina.