Posted on 06/17/2024 5:48:01 AM PDT by Red Badger
Trump is now favored to win the election in November, with 538’s simulations using polling, economic, and demographic data show a four-point lead over Biden.
In the early afternoon, 538 projected Trump winning 50 out of 100 times with Biden winning 49 out of 100 times in their simulations. In a 2 pm update, Trump’s lead grew, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.
Of 1,000 simulations run, Trump came out on top in 509 of them, while Biden won in 487 of the runs. There was no winner in 4 of the simulations.
538 states that its forecast "is based on a combination of polls and campaign 'fundamentals,' such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to 'call' a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win."
As Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk noted, this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.
538’s simulations also found that Trump is more probable as of Friday to win the Electoral College, while Biden is more likely to with the national popular vote. Trump was found to win the Electoral College with less than 350 electoral votes 38 out of 100 times, while Biden won 28 out of 100 times. Biden was found to win the national popular vote 59 out of 100 times while Trump won 41 out of 100 times.
The simulations also found that Trump has a far higher chance of winning at least one state that he did not win in 2020. Trump won one of these states 80 out of 100 times, while Biden won one of these states 48 out of 100 times.
Just wait till the first debate.
What distraction will Joe Biden and company do now?
/shiny side out
Keep on believing, but it ain’t gonna happen. Trump’s going to lose, unless he makes an effort to molify the female vote, who pretty much hate him due to his caviler treatment of women in general.
Biden will probably come out and repeatedly say that he has the greatest voter fraud machine in history. Greater than in 2018, 2020, and 2022. No one will protest it.
Are there any sites running odds that PDJT will live to see the election? The Left is more desperate every day, and they are not known for subtlety. I hope he has the best personal security available.
Who knows...maybe The Big Guy's strategy of emptying our petroleum reserves tanks to get gas prices down is being noticed by tossup voters who think that The Big Guy deserves thanks for lower prices.
This is just a cheap trick to make the supporters of Trump and MAGA overconfident of victory, and thus, stop striving. But the effort must continue, with a vision we are ten points behind, and everything must still be done to close that gap.
It is still within the margin of the potential fraud, that the elections could still go against Trump. No matter how badly Joe Biden’s phony façade of an administration may botch things up, they are still within striking distance of re-election.
“this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast. “
In other words the 538 forecasts were not terribly accurate in 2016.
Trump is leading Biden but don’t get excited over 538. They probably are wanting a new candidate.
How many people who don’t like either candidate will just stay home?
I don’t believe so, frankly. Remember back when Megyn Kelly was a moderator and Trump made the “blood out of the eyes or wherever” comment?
Lots of kickback there and media speculation/condemnation. BUT! Go take a look at Megyn’s youtube feed on any given day now. She’s 100% on Trump’s side for the win.
The big offset factor here for anyone (even women) is Biden’s disastrous handling of the economy (i.e., the GROCERY STORE and the GAS STATION). This coupled with everyone in Democratdom hiding the fact he’s a bumbling, decrepit mentally impaired habitual liar isn’t something to hang one’s hat on.
Trump says during the debate, “something smells odd. Joe, did you poop your pants again?”
Biden denies and the CNN hosts get all uppity.
Trump responds, “then, Joe, why are you wearing diapers? I don’t have to wear diapers, but you do.”
Then he can challenge Joe to show that he’s not wearing diapers and tells the audience how it is known by the Secret Service that Joe poops his pants often.
Now this might not be the actual line of attack, but have the line of attack be something that is factually true, but being hidden by the MSM and Democrats. Trump says, “we have the proof. Admit it now or if you continue to deny, we will release the proof to the public right after this debate.”
I don’t know what will happen - it’s obvious that they’ve tried just about everything
Means nothing. If they have been so wrong before, what makes them accurate now?
If that doesn't change, and there is no indication it has or will, Trump will be cheated out again.
Do not underestimate the stupidity of your average low information voter.
I still think Biden wins.
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