[JSM_Liberty]

“this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast. “

In other words the 538 forecasts were not terribly accurate in 2016.

[Gay State Conservative]

I've seen it suggested that pollsters have,in 2016 and 2020,underestimated DJT’s strength in their polls. Assuming that's true it's easy to imagine that they're doing so this year as well.

[nwrep]

That’s because polls themselves were not accurate in 2016.