[nwrep]

Just wait till the first debate.

[SaveFerris]

What distraction will Joe Biden and company do now?

/shiny side out

[rod5591]

Keep on believing, but it ain’t gonna happen. Trump’s going to lose, unless he makes an effort to molify the female vote, who pretty much hate him due to his caviler treatment of women in general.

[CatOwner]

Biden will probably come out and repeatedly say that he has the greatest voter fraud machine in history. Greater than in 2018, 2020, and 2022. No one will protest it.

[Gay State Conservative]

Newsweak claims that DJT is now trailing The Big Guy in Michigan and Wisconsin. They're also suggesting that DJT's lead in other battleground states is slipping.

Who knows...maybe The Big Guy's strategy of emptying our petroleum reserves tanks to get gas prices down is being noticed by tossup voters who think that The Big Guy deserves thanks for lower prices.

[alloysteel]

This is just a cheap trick to make the supporters of Trump and MAGA overconfident of victory, and thus, stop striving. But the effort must continue, with a vision we are ten points behind, and everything must still be done to close that gap.

It is still within the margin of the potential fraud, that the elections could still go against Trump. No matter how badly Joe Biden’s phony façade of an administration may botch things up, they are still within striking distance of re-election.

[JSM_Liberty]

“this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast. “

In other words the 538 forecasts were not terribly accurate in 2016.

[Gay State Conservative]

A 52% chance of a Trump victory isn't good enough. It's gotta be much higher than that to overcome the Fraud Factor.

[dforest]

Trump is leading Biden but don’t get excited over 538. They probably are wanting a new candidate.

[CodeToad]

Means nothing. If they have been so wrong before, what makes them accurate now?

[Solson]

Does this factor in cheating? only two states, of the battleground states changed election laws for the better and none of the battleground states have been held accountable for any of the rampant vote stuffing that occurred in 2020.

If that doesn't change, and there is no indication it has or will, Trump will be cheated out again.

[Hoboto]

Do not underestimate the stupidity of your average low information voter.

I still think Biden wins.

[ConservativeMind]

Nate Silver previously has said Trump had no ability to win the presidency, over a period of five or more weeks, in interviews, yet, he went on to win the 2016 election.

538 is a crud site.

[libertylover]

Trump’s lead grew, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.

Trump wins 100 out of 100 in a fair election, but there's a high probability that's not what we'll get.

[Sicon]

both 538’s simulations using polling, economic, and demographic data show a four-point lead over Biden.

Well, there’s your problem right there: they forgot to factor in the massive fraud/cheating.

[Redleg Duke]

So this means that we don’t have to go out and vote for Trump? Sarc/

[GOPJ]

The simulations also found that Trump has a far higher chance of winning at least one state that he did not win in 2020. Trump won one of these states 80 out of 100 times, while Biden won one of these states 48 out of 100 times.

Voter fraud is typically don't in black precincts that turn in their ballot boxed 3 to 4 hours later than average. The typical voter fraud consists of 'voting the people who don't show up to vote'... (it's now the 'dead vote' comes into being - they never show up to vote)

[Recovering_Democrat]

the lack of secure elections in the big precincts of Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Arizona (and perhaps even Virginia? NOVA?) do not bode well for America.