Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***
RUMINT - A source from the Chicago Police Department has verified that pallets or containers of bricks have been found near locations designated for protests related to the Democratic National Convention.

OBSERVATION - Considering RUMINT because an accompanying photo allegedly showing the bricks was linked to a 2020 event. Always use caution with internet sources.

Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024

Officials at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland (JBSA) said its security officers returned fire on multiple active shooters who fired upon the main gate at the JBSA Chapman Training Annex early Saturday.

The incident occurred Saturday morning around 4:30 am when at least once suspect in a sedan fired at security officers. . San Antonio police were also on the scene, according to local news outlet KSAT 12.

Authorities did not say if anyone was hurt or how many individuals were involved in the exchange of gunfire. Officials did indicate that the shooters were not known to have any military connections.

“There was no active threat to the installation … and our security forces responded to mitigate the threat,” said JBSA spokesperson Stefanie Antosh to the media. No motive was given for the shooting and Antosh said the suspects did not try to breach the main gate.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/shooting-air-force-texas/2024/08/17/id/1176888/

OBSERVATION - Officials are avoiding the use of the term - terrorism - to describe the incident. Some want to write it off as some gangster related crime of opportunity. I think differently in the context of recent incidents at other military facilities. I’m inclined to consider this to be more likely a probing attack, test run.

Lackland has private security at the gates, IIRC, and this could be a test on how they would respond to a lethal attack. Seems that the assailants encounter quick weapons fire in return. I expect probes to increase, especially as conditions around the world continue to deteriorate and nations hostile to the US look to asymmetric warfare such as terror strikes on US facilities as possible weapons to use.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Observers are claiming that 1/3 of the US naval power is concentrated in the middle eastern region. I think that may be a bit of an overstatement, never the less, there is a lot of firepower in place or enroute to send a message.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC

Bavarian Nordic is preparing for a clinical trial to assess the immunogenicity and safety of its Moneypox vaccine in children between the ages of 2 and 12 in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda. They’re going to do this to poor, uneducated people in Africa. It’s another emergency use situation, so they can skate if it goes wrong.

They call it Monkeypox, MPox now, but it’s still Monkeypox.

https://www.independentsentinel.com/here-comes-the-monkeypox-vaccine-for-2-12-year-olds/

OBSERVATION - Beginning the conditioning of the population as well as testing groups deemed disposable by the globalists. The basic claims is monkey pox is now transmissible via airborne routes. Yet it remains clustered within the gay community as a SID.

POLITICAL FRONT –

August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates ???
FoxNews Sept 4th (dropped by harris)
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

The Washington Post, owned by billionaire Jeff Bezos, excoriated Harris in an editorial, taking the Democrat presidential nominee to task for claiming price gouging is fueling inflation. Rather than offering a plan to fix it, the Post said, she offered “populist gimmicks” during a campaign speech Friday.
The editorial board said one way to address inflation would be to “level with voters, telling them that inflation spiked in 2021 mainly because the pandemic snarled supply chains, and that the Federal Reserve’s policies, which the Biden-Harris administration supported, are working to slow it.”

Instead, the Post wrote, Harris chose to blame big business and “price gouging” by grocery stores, landlords, pharmaceutical companies, “and other supposed corporate perpetrators.”

“Whether the Harris proposal wins over voters remains to be seen, but if sound economic analysis still matters, it won’t,” the board wrote.
The board said Harris’ speech Friday “ranks as a disappointment,” even if it can be chalked up to “the pandering standards of campaign economics.”

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/washington-post-kamala-harris-groceries/2024/08/17/id/1176906/

OBSERVATION - Woah! WaPo taking a slash on harris’ plan! They better included the flood of money from the feds under the inflation reduction act that made matters worse.

****
There are some powerful democrats that don’t want a harris policy agenda to be released before the elections - the ultimate keeping the sheeple in the dark. I’m not sure that even the liberal MSM can keep their mouths shut over such a tactic. I think it is a result of the sudden pushback of some of her announced policies, like no SSN tax, no tax on tips, building new homes w/ $25K downpayment help (including doling out the money to illegals), and other policies stolen from Trump, etc. See WaPo above over likely response to no democrat platform going into the elections.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Besides being hammered for his military claims, Walz is now facing serious accusations regarding his relationship to China and its policies. The campaign continues to try to present him as a “common” man and not the deep marxist his career has demonstrated.

Harris getting increasing heat for avoiding open, unscripted press conferences or interviews.

Illegal Immigration –

San Diego Sector Border Patrol officials report an increase in migrant apprehensions for the second consecutive week. During the past four weeks, agents encountered nearly 13,000 migrants.

San Diego Sector Chief Patrol Agent Patricia McGurk-Daniel posted a weekly recap on social revealing the apprehension of 3,389 migrants during the previous seven days.

Overall, apprehensions have continued to be lower than same time last year.

https://www.breitbart.com/border/2024/08/17/migrant-apprehensions-in-california-border-sector-increase-for-2nd-straight-week/

OBSERVATION - The reinstatement of many of the trump policies have caused the reduction in border crossings, almost a much as uncertainty about a trump win and mass deportations.

Russia -

*****

The head of a Russian private militia has called on the army to overthrow Vladimir Putin in what is potentially shaping up to be the biggest threat of revolt the Kremlin has faced since the Wagner mutiny last year.

Georgy Zakrevsky is the founder of the Paladin PMC, one of many shadowy military groups like the former Wagner militia, that are loosely linked to the Kremlin.

Zakrevsky launched a blistering attack on the Russian president during a video recording in which he blamed all the military failures in Ukraine on Putin personally.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1937097/russia-commander-vladimir-putin-removal-kremlin-wagner

RUMINT-

Vladimir Putin is set to launch a ‘purge’ of his top generals following the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk.

The Russian president is set to wield the axe against Kremlin army chiefs after their failures in Kursk, which led to the loss of 400 square miles of home soil.

Former Ukrainian adviser Anton Gerashchenko has claimed that sources within Russia indicated that “criminal cases are being prepared” for top military brass.

There are reports thatPutin is particularly angry at Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who was suspiciously missing from Moscow’s crunch Security Council meeting last Friday.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-begins-purge-of-top-generals-after-he-accused-nato-of-playing-part-in-kursk-invasion/ar-AA1oVZE5

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 Shahed drones, 2 KN-23 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles

Ukrainian military repelled big Russian assault with in Pivninchne, Zalizne towards Toretsk. 10 vehicles lost and many Russian servicemen killed, - General staff of armed forces of Ukraine

Germany announced no new aid to Ukraine amidst its own budgetary meltdown

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Ukraine still holding to very tight OPSEC. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.

***

Ukrainian forces have reportedly captured / destroyed Russia’s 155th infantry brigade (essentially the remnants thereof) following publication by Russian members showing Ukrainian POWs who were decapitated and heads put on poles. Unconfirmed reports that 155th were not to be taken prisoner but exterminated.

Ukraine continues to take out more bridges, raising the ire of Russian civil authorities attempting to get people evacuated ahead of the Ukraine push.

Ocheretyne -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Svyrydonivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Outlook —

Ukraine continues to yield ground grudgingly to Russia in the Ocheretyne front while still gobbling up Russian territory. The Ocheretyne salient is dangerously thin and extended and if Ukraine has the resources, a localized counter attack could pinch it off and isolate a pretty large Russian force.

Word of a new purge in the Kremlin only means more confusion in command and coordination of the war against Ukraine. The invasion of Kursk has shaken some in the kremlin and maybe even putin, with ample blame rolling downhill. Parallel rumors of grumblings leaning toward a potential coup attempt are on the rise as well. Normally purges are associated with eliminating opposition that could lead a coup.

One of the other drivers of a potential coup is the massive hemorrhage of men and equipment the war has inflicted on Russia and the overall declining economic conditions. Not that the Moscovite rulers of Russia really care about the little people but they are a minority in the country.

Short term forecast is continued fighting as been developed over the past couple weeks. Potential for Ukraine to launch a supporting attack if they have the forces and can successfully weaken the Russian defenses through redeployment of forces into Kursk.

ISRAEL –

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Most of ground activity centered around Khan Younis with air/artillery strikes elsewhere.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli Air Force targeted and bombed a Hezbollah military building and a weapons warehouse in the area of Nabatiyeh in southern Lebanon overnight, the IDF announced on Saturday morning.
In addition, Israeli forces used artillery fire against various Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon where the Iranian-backed terrorist group has a strong presence.

Later on Saturday, Hezbollah launched some 55 rockets against northern Israeli communities in what it described as a response to the lethal Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-45/

——— FORECAST ————————-

The situation in Gaza is relative stable, with continued Israeli air and artillery strikes taking out groups of Hamas trying to reform. More and more Hamas attacks (mortar and rocket) being fired from within refugee tent encampments.

Situation against Hezbollah is still on a hair trigger as Hezbollah ponders whether to take the initiative from Iran and strike on its own or wait. Israel continues to decapitate leadership and hit key logistical and command sites throughout southern Lebanon to further degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities.

Israel maintains readiness and preparations to invade S Lebanon to deal with Hezbollah once and for all. That order is likely pending resolution of what ever joint retaliatory strike Hezbollah/Iran launch towards Israel and would serve a justification of a ground invasion.

Iran’s promised retaliation is still pending as they assess if it is worth the price of Israel’s retaliatory counterstrike (likely the elimination of their nuclear program and oil industry) to go forward. They are going to do something else they will lose a lot of face before other islamists in the region and world.

Iran –

Iranian opposition channels report that Iranian intelligence has arrested Imad al-Din Khatami, the son of former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, on charges of spying for a foreign country.
Khatami was Iran’s fifth president from 1997-2005.

OBSERVATION - Still stinging from the successful Israeli attack, Iran continues to scrub the population for possible accomplices and others deemed harmful towards the regime.

Iraq -

Negotiations moving forward designed to have all US forces withdrawn from the country.

Lebanon -

Electricity was out in Lebanon late on Saturday after the last remaining power station closed down due to a shortage of fuel. “After exhausting all possible options to extend energy production, the last power station has been put out of use and electricity has been cut in the entire country,” the government said. The Beirut airport said it would remain operational with the help of generators as citizens are urged to preserve water.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bkmdeekja

Venezuela -

Opposition supporters have gathered across Venezuela to protest against Nicolas Maduro’s disputed victory in last month’s presidential election.
Opposition leader María Corina Machado joined thousands of protesters in the capital, Caracas, and urged them not to be afraid.
Ms Machado, who had been in hiding after being accused of insurrection, said there was nothing above the voice of the people, and that the people had spoken.

Police and the army were deployed in force as supporters of Mr Maduro also held a demonstration.
According to the Venezuelan government, more than 2,400 people have been detained since 29 July, the day the disputed election result was announced.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgedgqqy7x9o

OBSERVATION - The opposition lost an opportunity to strike while the iron was hot and Maduro has been able to regain control of police and military.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***
Protests began yesterday in Chicago
Ngo - Left-wing protesters chant again against “Christian fascists” while later chanting in support of “intifada,” or violent uprisings. Intifadas against Israelis were marked by periods of terrorist attacks and mass killings of civilian targets

“Madam VP You Are Sellout, Pack Your Bags And Get The Hell Out!”- Pro-Palestine protesters chanting as they’re marching in Chicago.

Currently, it looks like the focus of the major protests/riots is coming from the pro-hamas crowd. As noted prior, they are not satisfied with the democrats and want a complete shutdown of any aid an a forced ceasefire. The reports presence of so many antifa reinforces the indicators of violence and rioting spinning off from the protests. Business sections of Chicago away from the convention center have battened down the hatches and extensive reporting of street closures is in effect. Chicago police are expecting 100s of thousands of protestors this next week.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

This Wednesday the Bureau of Labor and Statistics is expected to release the most recent jobs data as well as revisions from previous months. I’m hearing rumblings that this could be interesting.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) has left the South China Sea and is now in the Indian Ocean, Navy officials confirmed to USNI News on Friday.

Meanwhile, carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) returned to San Diego this week after deploying to Hawaii for the Rim of the Pacific 2024 exercise, according to ship spotters.

POLITICAL FRONT –

August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates ???
FoxNews Sept 4th (dropped by harris)
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

DNC convention starts today

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Speaking of polls, I’ve noticed a trend back to Trump following harris’ explosive spike of the past couple weeks. I’ve noted that in one poll democrats were sampled at +10 to yield a +4 for harris. Now these polls show trump pulling back ahead in swing state and national polls. He is reportedly clearly leading on major issues. Democrats are hoping for another boost coming out of the convention - but they have some serious problems of their own making - they can’t keep harris isolated for ever from unscripted questions and answers. Also, the few policies that have been released have hit reality to the extent that liberal MSM is having problems swallowing it.

****
What are harris’ policy and preferences? Well she was far more outspoken in 2020 running for president - so those views are likely still in her mind today. Here is one that clearly shows her totalitarian marxist views

At a campaign stop in 2019 -
Kamala: ‘A lot of drugs, prescription medications, was born out of federal funding for the research and development of that drug. Your taxpayer dollars. So for any drug where they fail to play by their own rules and if the drug came out because of federal funding for what is called R&D, I will snatch their patent so that we will take over.’
[Audience chuckles nervously]
Kamala: ‘Yes, we can do that. Yes we can do that. The question is, “Do you have the will to do it?” I have the will to do it.’

Again during the 2020 campaign she showed willingness to use the powers of the WH to destroy people and their lives. See the link below

https://x.com/ULTRA_MAJESTY/status/1824810980926230949

NOTE - there is a push by some congressional democrats to keep the democrat platform and policies under wraps until after the election. Makes you wonder just how ugly those policies and platform items are if they want to have voters check the box in an ignorant manner.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Kamala word salads are so back: “Our election is about understanding the importance of this beautiful country of ours in terms of what we stand for around the globe as a democracy. As a democracy, we know there’s a duality to the nature of democracy. On the one hand, incredible strength when it is in tact. What it does for its people to protect and defend their rights. Incredibly strong. And incredibly fragile.”

“When we increase home ownership in America.. what that means in terms of increasing the tax base, not to mention property tax base, what that does to fund schools. Again, return on investment.”

***

Rumors are circulating Kamala Harris has a serious drinking problem which hinders her from answering questions from reporters or handling a press conference.

Phillipines –

Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard vessels collided yesterday at Second Thomas Shoal, according to the statements of CCG. Video of the event show that the chinese vessel deliberately targeted the Philippine vessel.

Russia -

*****

Russia will “take measures” if Poland tries to shoot down missiles over Ukraine, Russian MFA says

The ministry said that direct involvement of the West in the conflict would have “great risks for the escalation of the international situation”

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 Shahed drones overnight.

Ukrainian General Staff estimates total Russian losses at 600,470 (dead and wounded taken out of battle).

Last night, Ukrainian attack drones successfully hit a Russian oil depot in Rostov Oblast, setting several storage tanks alight. Nearly 24 hours later, the oil depot continues to burn. The Rostov facility is reportedly dedicated to providing fuel to the Russian military.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Ukraine still holding to very tight OPSEC. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.

***
Ukrainian 36th separate marines brigade have control over Apanasivka village over Kursk region

Russian channels report that Ukrainian forces destroyed the third and final pre-war bridge over the Seym River at Karyzh, Kursk Oblast.
Russian forces south of the river now only have one pontoon bridge left.
NOTE - This traps a significant Russian border force up against the Ukraine border. Rumored thought is that Ukraine will push westward to complete the isolation of those forces.

President Zelenskyy: main task of all our defensive operations - to reduce military potential of Russian Federation as much as possible, in Kursk region - goal is to create buffer zone

Ocheretyne -

Mandatory evacuation of families with children declared in Pokrovsk community of Donetsk region: Pokrovsk and Rodynske towns, Hnativka, Dachenske, Zhovte, Zelene, Lysivka, Novopavlivka, Novoukrayinka, Pushkine, Rih, Sukhyy Yar, Troyanda and Chunyshyne villages

Outlook —
Russia has redoubled its efforts on the Ocheretyne salient as indicated by the evacuation notices. This is the one sector that has apparently escaped troop withdrawals to support Kursk.

Ukraine OTOH, continues to press its attacks in Kursk but seems to be transitioning to a tactical pause so that forces can be repositioned for the next phase of the assault. Zelenskyy implies that one goal of the offensive is to establish a buffer zone, so a pivot to the west and southeast are potential next phases. This pivot would have Ukraine fighting parallel to any Russian defensive lines - virtually negating them.

Time will tell what the next moves by both sides will be.

Europe / NATO General –

German Foreign Ministry spokesman: Berlin’s support for Ukraine is constant and will continue as long as necessary

German Finance Ministry Spokesperson: We are working intensively on creating an international financing instrument for Ukraine

OBSERVATION - Germany’s shock announcement over the weekend that they were pulling the plug on Ukraine support apparently hit pushback quickly. Germany’s economy is already in a shambles due largely to the massive push for global warming goals that has created shortages of electricity and shut down a large number of factories. Unless it discards the failing green energy movements, its economy will potentially crater.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Suicide bombing attempt in Tel Aviv fails as bomb belt detonates prematurely

- Hamas rejects latest peace plan.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Police and the Shin Bet security agency in a statement say that the blast in Tel Aviv last night was an intended terror attack.The joint statement says that after an initial investigation, “it can be said that this was a terror attack, with the detonation of a powerful explosive device. In addition to the bomber being killed, another man in the area was moderately wounded.
Channel 13, quoting the Israeli police: Yesterday’s bombing in Tel Aviv was a hostile operation and the perpetrator apparently came from the Nablus area
Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad announced that they conducted the attack in Tel Aviv together. The two say they will be bringing back such suicide attacks. The last suicide bombing in Tel Aviv was in April 2006

Hamas stressed it would only agree to a deal that includes an end to the war and a withdrawal of all Israel Defense Forces troops from the Gaza Strip, as it outlined in its July 2 response to mediators.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

More than 45 targets were struck by the Israeli Air Force across the Gaza Strip over the past day, the Israeli army says, as ground forces continue operations in Rafah, Khan Younis, Deir al-Balah, and the Netzarim Corridor

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israel continues to target Hezbollah leaders and Hezbollah retaliates with rocket and drone attacks.

Reports of an Israeli special operations team penetrating into S Lebanon and withdrawing following completion of its mission.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces very active in and around Nablus.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

U.S. Central Command: In the past 24 hours, U.S. Central Command forces successfully destroyed one Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen

——— FORECAST ————————-

When will Iran and Hezbollah strike? We are now several weeks out from the hit on Hama’s big leader in Tehran.

Operations in Gaza are maintaining their dynamic stableness (!!), with Israel hitting Hamas as bands join together. No major Gaza operations are in the near term.

Hamas continues it demands for Israel to capitulate in its fight and pull completely out of Gaza before Hamas will even consider hostage release negotiations.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***
A smaller than expected pro-hamas protest managed to partially breach the fencing around the Chicago convention center. Only a small number passed through before police were able to reestablish security. Those who entered were arrested.

More protests are expected throughout the week.

OBSERVATION - The lack of turnout is interesting given the amount of build up. Only half of the 40K protestors reportedly showed up. Lack of interest or lack of support? or some other factor.

POLITICAL FRONT –

August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates ???
FoxNews Sept 4th (dropped by harris)
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

DNC convention all week

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

The 2024 Democratic Party Platform opens with a “land acknowledgment,” stating that the United States of America was established on territory stolen from the Native American tribes. “We honor the communities native to this continent, and recognize that our country was built on Indigenous homelands,” the document states, adding that the Democratic Nation Committee “pay[s] our respects to the millions of Indigenous people throughout history who have protected our lands, waters, and animals.”

The “traditional homelands” of the American Indians changed hands between the native tribes over generations of warfare long before the arrival of the first European settlers. Much of the Great Sioux Nation, which warred with the United States through the 19th century, was established on territory the Sioux had stolen from the Crow tribe, for instance.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/08/19/democrats-woke-2024-platform-opens-by-declaring-america-is-built-on-stolen-land/

OBSERVATION - This furthers the drive of ‘decolonization’ - code word for increasing hatred and racism directed against whites in our society.

***
Walz was introduced at one of the caucuses yesterday as “Command Sergeant Major” - a continuation of the Stolen Valor lie. He did nothing to correct the statement.

Biden / Harris Watch –

In a final insult, biden’s address was pushed out of primetime and into the red-eye slot near midnight.

Some pundits indicate it was part of an attempt to decouple harris from the biden administration’s reign of policy blunders - which she was an active participant of.

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024

FBI and other U.S. intelligence agencies have confirmed that Iran was behind the hacking of former President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

Illegal Immigration –

Kamala Harris’ DNC platform pledges to pass the U.S. Citizenship Act. What is it? The most radical amnesty bill ever written. Amnesty for human traffickers & gang members, no welfare restrictions for migrants, lets deportees return, & worse.

https://x.com/the_roblaw/status/1825618965336309895

OBSERVATION - We all knew this was coming folks. The massive replacement conspiracy now hatching before our eyes. No wonder many congressional democrats were wanting to keep the platform and policy goals secret until after the election. The harris team must be feeling pretty cocky to start releasing this kind of material.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 25 Shahed drones and 3 missiles overnight

Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of New York(Novhorodske) in Donetsk region.

The oil facility of Proletarsk was hit by Ukraine overnight. The level of destruction seen in released videos indicate that it sustained a fatal hit.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Ukraine still holding to very tight OPSEC. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.

***
Ukrainian FPV drones have targeted pontoon bridge over Sejm river in Kursk region. There is also evidence that a new pontoon bridge has been established in the same region.

A low-res “Planet” satellite image taken, Aug. 19th, shows that the Russian pontoon bridge between Zvannoye and Glushkovo in Kursk oblast is gone, with smoke rising 500 meters away from where it used to be, on the ‘Russian’ bank

Ukraine has reportedly made only marginal gains, this largely due to the stretch of its limited forces and the growing need to shift to potential defensive operations. Active advancements continue to the southeast as well as parallel to the Sejm River.

Outlook —
Now in the latter half of August, but Ukraine is already prepping for a potential nasty winter due to the destruction of so much of the electrical generation capacity that Russia inflicted earlier this year. I expect that Ukraine will continue its largely successful assault on Russian petroleum facilities, which has impacted as much as 30% of its supplies.

Russian advances in Donbas are increasingly concerning. The recent capture of New York a key example. In the past, such urban areas have been a key choke point to Russian forces, who now appear to have figured out a formula to push through them. However, continued pressure in Kursk is bleeding off reserve forces Russia needs to exploit these successes.

Russian strategic bombers have been strangely silent for months now, suggesting that Russia is trying to preserve cruse missiles they carry for a later, massive strike. Russia has been pressing its deep game using primary Shahed drones and occasionally tactical missiles.

I see evidence of major developments from ground operations by either side at this stage. If Ukraine is hiding a second offensive corps, that could change rapidly.

Russia continues to burn through its forces in eastern Ukraine at a pace that indicates it won’t be able to sustain the level of offensive operations for much longer.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Bodies of six hostages killed by Hamas recovered in Gaza tunnel.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Hamas: Biden and Blinken’s statements are misleading claims and do not reflect our true position, which is keen to reach a ceasefire

***
The Israel Defense Force has announced that in a Joint Operation with Shin Bet, they have successfully recovered the bodies of six hostages who were kidnapped on October 7th and later murdered by Hamas in the Gaza Strip, with the bodies being discovered in a tunnel beneath the city of Khan Yunis in southern Gaza. The bodies include 79-Year-Old Haim Perry from Nir Oz, 80-Year-Old Yoram Metzger from Nir Oz, 79-Year-Old Avraham Monder from Nir Oz, 51-Year-Old Nadav Popplewell from Nirim, 34-Year-Old Yagev Buchshtav from Nirim, and finally the 75-Year-Old Polish-Israeli Historian Alexander Dancyg from Nir Oz.
Of the six hostages, only Munder had not yet been declared dead by the IDF. Peri, Metzger and Popplewell were declared dead in June.

***
The largest hospital in northern Israel has created the biggest underground hospital in the world, and is gearing up for what could be an all-out war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The three-floor, $140 million Fortified Underground Emergency Hospital was constructed following the Second Lebanon War with the terrorist organization in 2006, when the Iranian proxy fired about 70 missiles on this northern port city over a month, shaking the hospital in an era before the Iron Dome aerial-defense system was in place.

“We made a commitment that this scenario cannot happen again,” recalled hospital director Professor Michael Halberthal during a tour of the facility on Sunday.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-45/

***
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant ordered the Israel Defense Forces to recall some 15,000 reservists who had been released from active service in the past years but are still under 35 years old to boost the army’s manpower reserves, the IDF said in a statement.

“In light of an assessment of the situation and the extent of the activities of the regular and reserve forces, and as part of a process planned by the IDF to increase the pool of servicemen, the defense minister ordered to call back into service those who were reservists and were exempted from service in the past due to the reduction of forces, and who are still at the mandatory age for service,” the IDF stated.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/gallant-idf-reservists/2024/08/20/id/1177155/

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

The Israeli army says it carried out an airstrike against Hamas operatives at a command room embedded within a school in Gaza City. According to the military, Hamas was using the command room at the Mustafa Hafez School to plan and carry out attacks against troops in Gaza and against Israel

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Somewhere between 60 to 90 rocket launches towards northern Israel overnight, multiple impacts in open areas and interceptions, fires began

The Hezbollah confirms the death of Hussein Ali Hussein Suleiman in an Israeli army drone strike in southern Lebanon’s Deir Qanoun yesterday. The above mention rocket attack likely associated with the death. That has been the typical pattern of late.

IAF targeted a number of Hezbollah ammo depots overnight. Dozens of spectacular secondary explosions seen in the northern Lebanese city of Baalbek, suggesting a major depot has been hit. Additional strikes have also been reported in Deir Seryan and Tayba in southern Lebanon. Another depot was hit near Tyre.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Israeli, Egyptian and U.S. officials met in Cairo on Sunday and Monday to discuss the Phildelphi corridor. On Netanyahu’s orders, the Israeli side presented a map that showed Israel reducing some of its forces but still deploying them all along the corridor, the Israeli officials said. The Egyptians rejected that plan. “The talks in Cairo were futile. We are definitely stuck,” one official told

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel continues to prepare the battle field as well as grow its forces. 15,000 reserve call up is an indicator of build up to ground offensive operations. However, it will take time to get the call up on equipment, deployed and battle ready - a factor that suggests that the Israeli offensive into S Lebanon is not a imminent as it seems. Hospital preps indicate anticipation of major actions by Hezbollah with further preparation for the overall fight in S Lebanon.

IAF targeting more ammo dumps. The ones hit unleashed spectacular secondary explosions. The delay in Hezbollah’s strike against Israel has given Israel license to almost leisurely pick apart ammo dumps as well as targeting leadership and command / control facilities. In this it is evident that Hezbollah is still fighting the last war, and hasn’t anticipated newer Israeli tactics and capabilities, especially in the field of their collection of actionable intelligence.

Friction with Iran continues to produce rumors that Hezbollah is ready to break and launch an uncoordinated (with Iran) rocket/missile assault on Israel. Unconfirmed reports that IRGC leaders posts on various social media sites is being met with put downs by other posters for its long delay. It has now been over 20 days and Iran has only responded with bluster.
Another driver of Hezbollah is possibly the realization that Israel’s continued air assaults on their facilities and leaders may soon put a cap on their ability to launch a sizable attack. Hence a drive to launch while they still can.

Right now, Hezbollah has the capability to launch at a moments notice. Evidence from Iran is that there is some degree of reluctance in attacking, largely driven by fear of the retaliatory strikes by Israel that could destroy its oil and nuclear programs.

Iran –

Iran hosted a meeting with its proxies in the region on Thursday in Tehran. Attendees included Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis of Yemen, and various Iraqi militias. Purpose was to discuss response to assassination of Ismail Haniya

Misc of Note –

When I began prepping over 15 years ago, there were an abundance of web sites offering all kinds of advice and recommendations. They were putting out fresh ideas and thoughts on nearly a daily basis.

Today, many of those sites have shut down or just recycle older posts. Is this because interest has died down? I doubt it as polling and other studies indicate that prepping has grown in recent years, especially post wuhan.

All I have to say is to continue to research and mark those that contain useful information. Consider it as ‘advice’ and not the must do x, y or z that some sites post. Everyones situation is different and one size just doesn’t fit all.

It it my humble opinion that the window of opportunity to prepare for a level of chaos we’ve never seen in our lifetimes is rapidly coming to a close. Just too many threats to our country and way of life to ignore - and they are all interrelated, creating potential domino effects which will make matters worse. Don’t delay readiness. Want tips? I’ll gladly help, just Freepmail me.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is now warning countries across the globe to prepare for “an era of shock events” as the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches.

From the WEF:
Briefly, here are three shock events to consider that may impact global stability:

- A new global extremist group emerges: with the world distracted with multiple major wars and leadership in decline, this could be an opportunistic time for a new extremist group to make its mark – and maybe not face as many consequences. Perhaps, it will even leverage AI tools to kick off a new phase of terrorism.

- A cyber pandemic – that is intentional: the massive global IT outage in July was not terrorism, but simply a faulty software update from a cybersecurity firm. Yet, it cost Fortune 500 companies $5.4 billion in damages and shut down flights, banks, hospitals, retailers and other services worldwide. Imagine if a bad actor did this – on purpose and an even grander scale?

- Climate change claims its first island nation in the pos-pandemic era: The COP28 plan to phase out fossil fuels may take decades and it’s unclear if world leaders will follow through. What’s more probable is that in the meantime certain island nations (who emit only 0.3% of global emissions) will keep fighting their cause, whether it is through international law or new climate funds. But, if these islands do succumb to climate change, sinking a lot faster than we expect, how will climate activists and world leaders react?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/08/4-global-risks-to-look-out-for-in-the-post-pandemic-era/

OBSERVATION - I find this list interesting. First, no listing of an actual plandemic inspire of all the rumblings about bird flu so far this year.
Extremist group? Pretty vague as the existing ones pretty well cover the market. Or are they referring to the patriots in the US?

Cyber ‘pandemic’ - now this is one that the WEF has been ‘warning’ about for a while. Mostly in context of hitting financial institutions.

Finally global warming threats. They think islands will start sinking.

Bottom line to me is this may represent some sort of telegraphing disasters planned to disrupt the world and leverage into acceptance of a global ruling authority. With the exception of the cyberthreat, they seem kinda out there.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***
Antifa aligned elements of pro-Hamas rioters moved on the Israeli consulate in Chicago last night that resulted in a violent confrontation with police. The Chicago police, however, had a significant numerical advantage over the rioters

A group called Behind Enemy Lines is apparently behind the mass demonstration, but is not affiliated with another anti-Israel group that marched on the DNC on Monday night.

OBSERVATION - This was another relatively small group, though highly violently oriented. Police were able to encircle them and begin arrests.
So far the pro-hamas protestors and antifa have been unable to muster a group sizable to force the police back. It seems that their call for action fell on passive ears.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will downward revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by up to 1 million. This means that all “beats” recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US job market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit.

Economic analysts at Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo said job growth data revisions due out today will likely show job growth from March 2023 to March 2024 was at least 600,000 jobs lower than the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported.

”A large negative revision would indicate that the strength of hiring was already fading before this past April,” Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner said.

According to Bloomberg, payrolls growth between April 2023 to March 2024 was up to 1 million weaker than previously reported.

There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer — and perhaps more so — than originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year.

OBSERVATION - This is huge. The fed had been toting the job market for its decisions to keep rates high - and now caught believing their own propaganda. Being off by such a large number is either a deliberate falsification of the numbers or a clown crew on incompetents running the show - or both.
The fake numbers that are initially released month after month have given the American people the impression that the economy is performing far better than it actually is.
It also raises the probability that the ‘soft landing’ the fed and treasury dept have been preaching is about to hit rock bottom in a nasty way.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Biden ordered U.S. forces to prepare for possible nuclear confrontations with Russia, China, and North Korea — NYT
According to the New York Times; U.S. Biden in March approved a highly classified document regarding the United States’s Nuclear Strategy, dubbed the “Nuclear Employment Guidance” which for the first time seeks to reorient the U.S. deterrence strategy from Russia to China, and their growing nuclear arsenal. The document also seeks to prepare the United States for a possible coordinated nuclear confrontation from Russia, China, and North Korea.

OBSERVATION - There are some alarmist opinions out there, but I for one think that a rethink involving China and even NK is long over due. Cold war era thinking and technology of the era had both countries on the periphery of our threat envelope. Now things have significantly changed.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC

In recent months, local health authorities have conducted emergency infection disease response drills across China.

On Aug. 15, Dingxi City in Gansu Province, a district in Yancheng City in Jiangsu Province, and Lingchuan County in Shanxi Province carried out emergency drills for the outbreak of “pneumonia of unknown cause,” according to an official notice.

A staff member of the Gansu provincial government’s health hotline told the media on Aug. 15 that the national-level authorities had ordered officials in 10 provinces to conduct emergent infectious disease drills by the end of August.

The ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) first used the term “pneumonia of unknown cause” in 2003 to describe the SARS outbreak in China before it was officially named; it was also used when COVID-19 first broke out in Wuhan, Hubei Province, in late 2019.

Drills have been conducted since June in more than a dozen provinces and regions, including the nation’s capital, Beijing, according to notices issued by local health departments and Chinese media reports. This is the first official annual infectious disease emergency drill since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sean Lin, a microbiologist and assistant professor in the biomedical science department at Feitian College, said that in the context of the sluggish economy and high unemployment rate, “this kind of drill may be a special political signal,“ and that ”the authorities are trying to achieve more control over society on the grounds of health.”

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/08/ccp-conducts-emergency-drills-for-pneumonia-of-unknown-cause-across-china/

OBSERVATION - These latest drills are the largest since the wuhan plandemic broke in 2019-2020. Is this preparation for a real thing coming down? Hard to say.

POLITICAL FRONT –

August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

DNC convention all week

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Well, official harris absolutely won’t debate under a Fox format - so only two debates.

Kamala Harris just endorsed Biden’s capital gains tax proposal for her campaign…

45% long-term capital gains tax. By far the highest in history.
Combined with state taxes, many states will be well over 50%.
California: 59%
New Jersey: 55.3%
Oregon: 54.5%
Minnesota: 54.4%
New York: 53.4%

Included in the biden proposal is a 25% tax on unrealized gains.

OBSERVATION - Some harris spinmeisters are trying to claim harris hasn’t endorsed the unrealized gains tax - but in her clear endorsement of biden’s plan, such a tax is part and parcel. Little wonder key democrat leaders want to keep the democrat policy plans under wraps until after the election.

***
The Democratic National Convention (DNC) published guidance that urges food vendors to serve plant-based options or “lower-emission” meat.
The DNC’s sustainability guidance for food vendors serving customers at the convention in Chicago suggests that they should “offer low-emission menu choices,” including plant-based options, and “prioritize” chicken where possible because of its lower carbon intensity. Environmental activists and institutions like the United Nations have consistently asserted that reforming agricultural practices and decreasing red meat consumption are key to bringing down emissions and fighting climate change.

Additionally, the DNC is recommending the purchase of “renewable energy certificates,” or credits, to “measure and mitigate the impact of the energy used to heat, cool, and power venues and hotels.” (i.e. carbon credits)

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/08/20/wheres-the-beef-dnc-asks-food-vendors-to-prioritize-lower-emission-meats/

OBSERVATION - Where’s the beef! Nah, let them eat bugs

Biden / Harris Watch –

Lots of rumors that biden may slip in a payback for his treatment by democrats and of late by harris.

Illegal Immigration –

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced the start of President Biden’s “parole in place” program for illegal immigrant spouses and step-children of U.S. citizens, which will allow about 500,000 illegal immigrants to apply for permanent residency beginning this week.

***
According to the Inspector General for the Department of Homeland Security, the number appears to be over 300,000 unaccompanied children who have disappeared into the United States, although there is some uncertainty because ICE and other agencies in the federal government apparently don’t communicate on such matters.

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/08/21/homeland-security-has-lost-how-many-unaccompanied-minors-n3793418

OBSERVATION - This is a crisis of major magnitude. Of late, child trafficking has grown to be a major crime profit center, and the US govt is potentially the largest child trafficker in the world.

Russia -

*****

Russian Foreign Ministry: We warn of Latvia’s growing involvement in the armed conflict in Ukraine

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Russians have been left baffled after President Vladimir Putin deployed his so-called “space troops” to defend the Kursk region due to a manpower shortage amid a Ukrainian incursion.

The deployment of temporary motorized rifle of Russia’s Aerospace Forces to the Kursk region was first reported by independent investigative Russian outlet Important Stories.

The unit, created between May and June, consists of personnel from security and logistics companies, engineers, mechanics, some officers, and servicemen from a Russian spaceport. There are also personnel from special warehouses of the Aerospace Forces and radar stations in Russia’s Voronezh region, who were previously in charge of manning Russia’s nuclear deterrent, the publication reported, citing a source familiar with the matter.

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2024/08/20/russian-space-force-deployed-against-ukraine-in-kursk-n3793417

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russian sources are saying 5 UAVs were shot down overnight over Russian territory, the Defense Ministry said: 11 UAVs were destroyed over Moscow Oblast, another 23 UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, 6 UAVs were destroyed over Belgorod Oblast, 3 over Kaluga Oblast, and 2 over Kursk Oblast, - the ministry said.

A scattering of Russian drones hit targets in western Ukraine.

Reports that Russia has made more small advances in the Donbas region.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Ukraine still holding to very tight OPSEC. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.

***
There are estimates that Ukraine has trapped as many as 3000 Russian soldiers west of the Sejm River as a result of its assaults on bridges in the region.

Ukrainian Armed Forces control 1263 square kilometers in the Kursk region, — commander-in-chief Syrskyi. “The Russians are conducting a maneuverable defense, trying to prevent further advance”, - he added
NOTE - this is more territory than Russia has seized all year to date.

Outlook —

Action in Kursk seem to be stabilizing out, with the exception that Ukraine may launch a flank attack on Russian forces trapped west of the Sejm River.

Ukraine is long overdue in dealing with the Russian push in the Donbas region. The offensive into Kursk has helped some in stripping away reinforcements but seems to have left Ukraine short handed on the defense of this sector that Russia continues to prioritize.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel continues to target ammo depots deep in Lebanon.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
Iran’s IRGC spokesperson says the ‘waiting period for Iran’s retaliation’ against Israel could be long according to Reuters.
RUMINT - Iran stalls retaliation until US troops leave region

***
Blinkin is urging Israel to accept the current Gaza ceasefire initiative as soon as possible even though is has little chance of being accepted (currently rejected ) by hamas.

***
Hamas has sent threatening phone calls and messages to relatives of Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity, according to a report on Tuesday by N12.
The messages included warnings such as: “If you don’t fight the government, you won’t see your loved ones return.”
According to the report, the terror group sent ransom requests, claiming that without payment, the hostage families wouldn’t receive information about their loved ones.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

The Israeli army is calling on Palestinians in a small section of the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in central Gaza’s Deir al-Balah to evacuate.

Dozens of gunmen were killed amid Israeli army operations in Gaza, as some 30 targets were struck by the Israeli Air Force across the Strip in the past day, the military says in a morning update

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Lebanese security source: Fatah Brigadier General Khalil al-Maqdah was assassinated in an Israeli raid on Sidon, southern Lebanon

A new wave of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah weapons depots and a compound that was used by Hezbollah’s Aerial Defense system in the Beqaa valley of Lebanon roughly 100km north of the border with Israel.

In response to those attacks, a barrage of 40-50 rockets was fired from Lebanon at the northern city of Katzrin in the Golan Heights a short while ago, according to the Israeli army. Some of the rockets were intercepted by air defense, although several impacted the city. The Magen David Adom ambulance service says it is treating a man in his 30s who was lightly wounded.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israel security forces active throughout the west bank overnight.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel finding and eliminating more terror cells trying to regroup in Gaza.
Hezbollah losing more senior leaders and large ammo depots.

Some see Iran’s statement on a long wait for retaliation linked to an effort to wait out the presence of US (and likely other) forces in the region. The combined air power alone of US and allied nations pretty effectively neutralized the Iranian drone and cruise missile components of their April attack. The RUMINT is that they have their units ready to fire once the US and others stand down - in an effort to increase the possibility of the drone/cruise missile component having greater success. This could stretch out for months.

This puts Hezbollah into a deeper problem. If they launch their retaliatory attacks sooner rather than later, they risk having to face Israel alone and having those foreign military assets turn on them. If they delay along with Iran, they will continue to see their military stockpiles reduced and their senior leadership continued to be eliminated.

IAF strikes have typically resulted in Hezbollah launching large salvos of rockets, latest being in the 40-50 rocket range. What I don’t think they realize is that this provides Israel ample opportunity to locate and analyze those launch sites and to track which ammo dump supplied the munitions. This in turn caused both to be targeted and eliminated by Israel, thus permitting Israel to eliminate much of the rocket threat one bite at a time.

Bottom line is Hezbollah maintains the capability to launch a massive attack on Israel at any time. Iran is maintain the capability to launch an April sized or larger attack but appears to be a few preparation steps short of launch readiness. It is still the estimate that the attack will be a 1 - 2 punch with Hezbollah launching a massive rocket strike which will cover some of Iran’s final preparations and launch of its phase of the attack.

Iran –

Yesterday in the city of Qazvin (north of Tehran): riots ensued after a woman was arrested on the grounds that she did not cover her head sufficiently. The crowds managed to rescue the woman and beat the policemen chanting “Death to the dictator”.

OBSERVATION - The last round of unrest was also based on the religious police killing women for being uncovered.

Black Swans -

Gulf hurricane season has been pretty sluggish following predictions that the end of El Nino would permit hurricane formation and an extensive round of storms. The next couple of months are going to be make or break for the development of severe hurricane and impacts to the gulf and east coast.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future

The National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (NCCoE) has signed a collaborative research and development agreement (CRADA) with 15 technology providers and industry experts to collaborate on the first use case under the Mobile Driver’s License (mDL) project. The project will start with a focus on implementing mDLs in financial services to meet customer identification program requirements.

Collaborators will work with the NCCoE to accelerate the adoption of digital identity standards and best practices by producing reference architectures, representative workflows, and implementation guides to address real-world cybersecurity, privacy, and usability challenges faced by adoption of mDL in the financial sector.

https://www.nccoe.nist.gov/news-insights/nccoe-announces-collaborators-mobile-drivers-license-mdl-project-use-case-1

OBSERVATION - Digital ID with biometrical standards is one of the big goals of the WEF et al. Movement towards such a goal is present at all different levels and nations. This one strikes at a key goal - eventual control of individual access to their funds.

RELATED - The Biden administration is laying the groundwork for wider acceptance of digital identifications, like driver’s licenses you can show on your smartphone — a push that could fundamentally reshape how citizens access everything from public benefits to pornography online.

A draft of a forthcoming executive order viewed by NOTUS pushes federal and state governments to speed adoption of smartphone-based mobile driver’s license and ID options more widely, stating: “It is the policy of the executive branch to strongly encourage the use of digital identity documents.”
Such documents could be submitted digitally and, in combination with biometric scans like facial recognition, could help better verify identity online.

https://www.notus.org/technology/digital-drivers-licenses-biden-supercharge-transition

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***
Pro-hamas protests are losing steam as they have not garnered the numbers or passion to challenge the police presence

***
Back in the news, Crooks, a 20 year kid in Pennsylvania shooting guns at the same gun range used by DHS agents had an encrypted messaging account in Belgium, where NATO is headquartered. Trump shooter Thomas Crooks also had encrypted messaging accounts in Germany, and New Zealand. The existence of overseas encrypted accounts were know, this is my first notice of the countries of origin.

***
The harris campaign finally released the platform Monday night, including its gun control plans called “Protecting Communities & Tackling the Scourge of Gun Violence.”
According to the platform, the Democrats want:
- Universal background checks.
- “Assault weapon” and standard-capacity magazine bans
- Mandatory safe-storage laws
- Repeal of the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act
- Increased red-flag laws
- Increased funding for the ATF
- Increased funding for the FBI, to conduct more background checks
- Increased funding for the CDC, “because the gun violence epidemic is a public health crisis.”

https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/the-harris-walz-game-plan-for-attacking-the-second-amendment/

OBSERVATION - This is just the tip of the iceberg on this aspect of the democrat’s intended assault on the Constitution. harris is already on record saying she’ll issue an EO banning AR-15 style weapons and begin immediate confiscation. The 2d protects the other amendments and such gross attack will suffer serious pushback as already many of the goals have been tried in court and rendered unconstitutional.
The level of danger to Americans is if the democrats take congress and the WH.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Yesterdays 818,000 downward revision in jobs have caused a number of economists to look closely at the unemployment numbers which in part are associated with the number of jobs. Some initial estimations suggest that unemployment is exceeding 5% and could be as high as 7%. These numbers would be more in line with the subjective feelings of the population. The big question is will the ‘corrected’ numbers be released before the elections?

***
Yesterday’s announcement that revised down 818,000 jobs from what had been reported is being seen as potentially driving the Fed to drop rates at even a greater rate than originally expected. A quarter point was expected now a larger drop is anticipated.
The potential for shockwaves is high. High stock prices and high everything else prices may skyrocket as a lowered rate sends a flash flood of money into the system.

***
US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. Harris-Biden Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo says she doesn’t believe new government data that shows almost a million of the jobs the Harris-Biden admin claimed to have “created” don’t actually exist.
“I’m not familiar with that.” She tried to call the US government’s official jobs data a Donald Trump lie.

***
The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference said it will begin a work strike Thursday morning after the Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) railway announced worker lockouts to begin Thursday morning.

OBSERVATION - Concerns are that this will impact supply lines to the US causing shortages if the strike is prolonged.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft carrier has entered CENTCOM’s AOR in the Middle East. It is currently located in the Indian Ocean still enroute to a station closer to the Gulf region.

POLITICAL FRONT –

August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

DNC convention all week

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

This Friday, it is being rumored that Kennedy will drop out of the race and cast his support to trump.

According to Charlie Kirk on “X”- “RFK Jr.’s VP, Nicole Shanahan, says their campaign is considering joining forces with Trump to prevent a Harris/Walz administration.

RFK endorsing Trump is the natural move. They both are sworn enemies of the CIA, FBI, and the military machine.”

Statisticians and pollsters are still crunching the numbers (and arguing over what they mean), but most evidence indicates that RFK Jr. leaving the race would benefit Donald Trump.

The value of a potential RFK Jr. endorsement is that it’s deadweight on the Democrats’ post-convention momentum. He saps their rocket fuel. Next week, instead of everyone talking about the DNC and how beautiful/intelligent/Obama-y Harris was, people will be talking, at least in part, about RFK Jr.’s endorsement.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden has essentially dropped off the radar screen since his midnight address at the DNC convention.

Illegal Immigration –

Monitoring reports that violent central american gangs are taking over apartment complexes in Aurora CO. Local govt claims that is not the case, but locals say otherwise.

Japan –

Japan reaffirms to Taiwan that they will help defend against any Chinese attempts at taking over the island.

Russia -

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Analysts are indicating that Russia is diverting largely untrained conscripts to the Kursk fight and not the the Donbas effort.
Unconfirmed reports are that putin is attempting to use conscripts in the effort in order to avoid a broader call-up of forces, which in turn will expose him to criticism over how the war has been fought.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Mezheve village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Ukrainian Air Forces: 2 of 10 Shahed drones were shot down overnight, most of the drones have attacked positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces in Kharkiv region

On the night of August 22, air defense systems repelled attacks over six regions, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. Over the Volgograd Region, 13 aircraft-type drones were shot down and intercepted, over the Rostov Region - 7, over the Belgorod Region - 4, over the Voronezh Region - 2, over the Bryansk Region and the Kursk Region - one each.

Explosions were reported at Marinovka airfield in Volgograd region of Russia

The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv assesses that during the next several days and through the weekend there is an increased risk of both nighttime and daytime Russian drone and missile attacks throughout Ukraine in connection with Ukraine’s Independence Day on August 24.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Governor of Bryansk region says FSB and Russian army foiled an attempt of Ukrainian scout group to enter Klimovo district of Bransk region

Due to large logistical problems with train lines in the Kursk region Russian forces are being forced to drive logistical convoys down the M-4 highway from Rostov to Voronezh to Kursk. This is setting them up to face the maelstrom of drone and HIMAR strikes.

All attempts by Russian forces to establish pontoon bridges over the Seym river are being thwarted, sometimes even before they have time to even built them. They are targets in a shooting gallery from drones and HIMARS.

Outlook —

Ukraine’s drone attacks overnight have been the largest in many months. Moscow proper was targeted by about a dozen of them. Bringing the war to the Russians. Apparently, Russia was able to shoot them down, having been given time to prepare their defenses.

Observations on the upcoming Aug 25 anniversary of the independence of Ukraine is a likely reason for the limited Russian missile assaults of late. They have been taking the time to build up their supplies for a massive strike or series of strikes.

The activity in Bransk, suggests that Ukraine is continuing to actively probe Russian border defenses for signs of more weakness. This probe is near the Belarus border and if Ukraine were to exploit it the Russian elements essentially trapped west of the Seym river could find themselves in even a more precarious position.

The Kursk offensive still has putin in a bad place, trying to keep information limited to the general public and diverting resources to stop the advances.

Belarus -

Belarus is drawing more and more troops, air defense forces and aircraft to the border with Ukraine, — Associated Press

OBSERVATION - Analysts do not believe this to be a precursor to Belarus entering the fight but is probably driven by Russian concerns over the fight in Kursk.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Sinwar wants a guarantee that he will not be assassinated.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
Sinwar, who once claimed that it would be an honor to die fighting Israel, has made his own survival a condition of any ceasefire in Gaza.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

In southern Gaza’s Rafah area, Israeli troops eliminated 50+ terrorists and dismantled significant terrorist infrastructure.

In Gaza City, Israel’s air force struck a weapons facility next to a Hamas command-and-control center located inside a former Gaza school.

In Khan Yunis and Deir al-Balah, troops killed numerous terrorists, destroyed dozens of terror sites, and located rockets to be fired at Israel.

***
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared on Wednesday during a visit to the Gaza-Egypt border that the IDF has achieved victory over Hamas’s Rafah brigade.

“I came here first and foremost to express my appreciation [to the soldiers]. The Rafah brigade was defeated by the IDF’s Division 162,” Gallant said at the Philadelphi Corridor, the 8.7-mile-long buffer zone captured by Israeli forces in May.

Since taking control of the area, the IDF has located and destroyed 150 terror tunnels, and Gallant instructed the forces to finish the destruction of the remaining tunnels, which Hamas used to smuggle weapons and materials from Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula into the Gaza Strip.

“Out of the 150 tunnels that were destroyed, around 100 tunnels are in fact trenches dug using engineering tools above ground and then covered with a meter or two of dirt,” the minister said.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-45/

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Last night, the IDF launched a widespread attack campaign on southern Lebanon, targeting and obliterating over ten locations, including Hezbollah weapon storage facilities.

This is believed to be the most widespread attack on southern Lebanon since the start of the war.

Some analysts are wondering if these strikes mark the beginning of a new escalation or preemptive strike.

China is telling its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.

——— FORECAST ————————-

I’ve been noting for some time now how Israel is preparing the battlefield for the eventual main event against Hezbollah. They have been doing this via targeted strikes against senior leadership and taking out critical logistical and command facilities. The airstrikes overnight have been characterized as the largest since Oct 7 and mark a significant increase in tempo. These strikes hit numerous ammo supply locations. Over the past few days, Hezbollah has lost a lot of ammo dumps. This will deny them the ability to re-arm during the conflict. I don’t have the numbers in front of me - the Mossads probably does - as to just what % of Hezbollah stockpiles have been reduced.

Remember, Hezbollah has been preparing since at least 2008 for the big one against Israel and it is unlikely they have all their eggs in a few baskets. 150,000 rockets are probably squirreled across much of Lebanon, many in underground bunkers.

But the intensity and specificity of Israeli airstrikes suggest that Israel has gotten good intel and the motivation to take these locations out, and as videos of the strikes posted on social media indicate - they have hit some big ammo dumps.

I think that one of the analysts commentary I’ve read suggesting these strikes are preemptive may be pretty close to on target (no pun intended). However, remembering other intelligence evaluations, the clock is ticking towards Israel launching on Hezbollah in the very near future. In this case, Israel is not waiting for the delayed Iran/Hezbollah attack, but pressing forward in spite of that threat. Now in the last half of August, the window for Israel’s move on Hezbollah grows closer and indicators are becoming red across the board.

Key indicators to watch for are increased ground force movement to the north along with further intensifying air and artillery strikes. IMHO, Israel has the elements in place for a nominal ground assault into Lebanon but is building up a larger force in order to have better operational reserves.

Iran –

(ISW). An unspecified Iranian official claimed that there is an ongoing “high-level debate” within Iran over the continued utility of the supreme leader’s 2003 fatwa against nuclear weapons. This debate is consistent with previous statements from Iranian officials that normalized discussions about Iran’s ability to procure nuclear weapons. There are some indications that Iran is setting conditions to be able to quickly move towards a weapon, should it choose to do so.

The Iranian UN mission likely published this statement to generate psychological and informational effects, rather than to signal Iran’s serious intention to conduct a ground attack into Israel imminently.

***
The Islamic regime in Iran is trying to assassinate former President Donald Trump, with hopes of doing so by Nov. 5, Election Day.

Multiple governmental sources associated with U.S. allies across the Mideast have informed me of the danger.

In the assessments of several governments, the Iranian regime has made clear it wants to rid itself of Trump — and it believes it must do so by Election Day.

The ayatollahs’ mortal animus against Trump is not a secret.

After Trump ordered a Baghdad drone missile strike in January 2020 that successfully killed Qassem Soleimani, head of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), Tehran vowed bloody revenge.

Soleimani was a revered figure within the regime’s base of supporters, second only in power to Ayatollah Khamanei.

Now, with the U.S. election race close, the power figures believe Iran’s growing status as a regional Mideast powerhouse will be at serious risk if the former president returns to the White House.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/iran-trump-election-day/2024/08/21/id/1177404/

Venezuela -

Anti-Maduro elements have completely lost the initiative and are facing progressive persecution and arrest.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

***
DNC is over and now the sprint to elections. Not seeing anything on the radar that would suggest any catalyst for major protests/riots except for a potential Israel v Iran/Hezbollah fight.

***
The Cochise County Sheriff’s Office in Arizona is searching for a man who has made credible threats against former President Trump ahead of his visit to the southern border this afternoon. The suspect, Ronald Lee Syrvud, 66, is wanted on a number of outstanding warrants: in Wisconsin for “DUI/Failure to Appear for DUI” and in Graham County, Ariz., for “Hit/Run and Felony Failure to Register as a Sex Offender.”

***
Protests at the DNC fizzled out to harassing attendees at an after convention party as well as blocking streets.
An outcome of not allowing pro-hamas speaker(s) at the convention has resulted in the disbanding of “Moslems for Harris” action element.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

The canadian govt has forced the restart of two rail lines shut down yesterday in a strike. The govt has ordered the union and companies to binding arbitrations.

Canada sends around 75% of all the goods it exports to the US, mostly by rail. A prolonged dispute could have disrupted shipments of a range of goods, from grains and beans to potash, coal and timber.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Military Sealift Command has drafted a plan to remove the crews from 17 Navy support ships due to a lack of qualified mariners to operate the vessels across the Navy, USNI News learned.

The MSC “force generation reset” identified two Lewis and Clark replenishment ships, one fleet oiler, a dozen Spearhead-class Expeditionary Fast Transports (EPF) and two forward-deployed Navy expeditionary sea bases that would enter an “extended maintenance” period and have their crews retasked to other ships in the fleet, three people familiar with the plan told USNI News Thursday.
Based on the crew requirements on the platforms, sideling all the ships could reduce the civilian mariner demand for MSC by as many as 700 billets.

https://news.usni.org/2024/08/22/navy-could-sideline-17-support-ships-due-to-manpower-issues

OBSERVATION - True to forces on land as on sea, logistics is the major driver of any war effort. The force projection of an aircraft carrier CSG is one thing, but an unarmed CSG is a bunch of worthless metal floating in the sea.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Waiting to see if Kennedy endorses Trump today.

The DNC is over and now the final sprint to November begins in earnest.

My impression of the DNC is that they tried to out republican the Republicans. They had an unprecedented PR tsunami that dominated the news ways this week. They also went out of their way to obfuscate any real policy presentations.

Trump has to pry the curtain open and get harris et al to expose their policies and goals sooner rather than later. People have to be broken away from their ‘feelings’ and face the reality of their choices.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Harris was high on feelings and shallow on policy details - a fact noted by many news sources, even the leftist BBC. Some are going as far as suggesting that harris is going to duplicate bidens ‘basement’ campaign tactic of continued avoidance of unscripted interviews and responses.

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024

US chipmaker Microchip Technology disclosed that an “unauthorized party” had compromised “certain servers and some business operations.” This cyberattack raises significant concerns due to Microchip’s critical role in supplying advanced chips to the US defense industry, supporting critical systems such as precision strike and missile defense weapons, radar systems, autonomous platforms, image processing, and command and control centers.

Microchip first detected “potentially suspicious activity involving its information technology (“IT”) systems” on Saturday, the Chandler, Arizona-based company wrote in an SEC filing on Tuesday.
“Upon detecting the issue, the Company began taking steps to assess, contain and remediate the potentially unauthorized activity,” Microchip said.

Microchip admitted that some of its manufacturing facilities had to operate at reduced capacity because of the cyber incident

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/08/cyberattack-hits-us-defense-supplier-of-critical-chips-impacting-ability-to-fulfill-orders/

OBSERVATION - US computer industry relies heavily on microchips and the reduction in production may cascade into delays at the bigger computer makers should this continue for any substantial period.

China –

A Chinese shipyard in Wuhan has launched a submarine which is likely to be the country’s most advanced non-nuclear type. The new boat is larger than existing ones and is the first in the country to feature X-form rudders. There are indications that it may have a vertical launch system (VLS).

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/08/china-launches-its-most-sophisticated-submarine-to-date/

OBSERVATION - China has gone beyond aggressively expanding its navy to today challenging the US in number and tonnage. Their growing technological prowess in submarines is another area. Though a conventional diesel-electric designed for shallow water operations, the potential inclusion of vertical launched missiles gives it a greater regional potential for force projection.

Russia -

Kerch Bridge update –

Russian army deployed smoke screen at the Kerch bridge, amid missile threat alert. The bridge is under greater scrutiny following suspension of ferry service at port Kavkaz until further notice, until liquidation of consequences of the missile strike at the ferry. The bridge is now the only real access point into Crimea for Russia.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Navy of Ukraine officially confirmed the destruction of the Russian ferry Conroe Trader in the port of Kavkaz, Krasnodar Territory. In addition to fuel and lubricants, it also transported weapons, - the spokesman of the Navy. The ferry and port facilities were reportedly hit by Ukrainian Neptune missiles.

The Ukraine third assault brigade is advancing in the Kharkiv region. The operation was aimed at knocking out Russian offensive capability and reportedly has captured multiple entrenched positions at a depth of 2km.

Explosions were audible overnight in Proletarsk, Russia with some reports suggesting new drone attack at burning oil depot. Ukraine attacked again this morning fuel depots in the Rostov region of Russia with drones.

Ukrainian drones hit Mariupol overnight.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations throughout the Kursk Oblast salient on August 21 and have made additional marginal advances.

Components of over a couple dozen Russian units are reportedly been deployed or in the process of deploying to Kursk. Among them a VDV regiment from Crimea.

Ocheretyne -
Russian assaults focused on the southwestern margin of the salient overnight.

Outlook —

So far Ukraine has been able to sustain offensive operations in Kursk. Slowdown due largely to the capabilities of the force involved to maintain territory as well as attack. Russia is slowly getting it act together in establishing command and control of the hodgepodge of units being sent to the region. The VDV regiment from Crimea is believed to be sent for the purpose of establishing better C2 and leadership of the conscript units in the region.

Ukraine’s deep game continues to hit Russian oil facilities at will. The biggest thing is the essential closure of major ferry traffic in the Crimea region with the destruction of the Conroe Trader. This places a significant burden back onto the Kersch Bridge. Russia has been utilizing ferries to avoid potential logistical problems should Ukraine manage to take the ever vulnerable bridge out.

Ukraine has taken out approximately 14 - S400 and one S500 air defense missile batteries over the past year as part of their deep offensive into Crimea that has also resulted in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet abandoning Crimea. The few remaining ADA units have reportedly been redeployed to protect the Kerch bridge. The seriousness of the loss of the bridge will be hard for Russia to fathom and severely impact logistical support to Russian operations in S Ukraine.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Cease fire talks ongoing in Egypt.

- Bodies of 6 recovered Israeli hostages showed signs of being executed.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Al Arabiya Channel Report: The talks in Egypt will last at least two days and will end if the disputes are not resolved. The US told the mediators that it would put pressure on Israel, and Egypt and Qatar on Hamas, to continue the talks. Israel will remain on the Philadelphi axis until at least the end of the year.

Later, Egypt’s Al Rad channel reported that the meeting of the Israeli delegation with their Egyptian counterparts ended without progress on the Philadelphia axis and the Rafah crossing. According to the report, during the meeting, the Israelis presented maps of the deployment of forces on the axis.

***
All six bodies of Israeli male hostages who were recovered from Gaza earlier this week had gunshot wounds, the IDF announced on Thursday. Initial autopsy findings indicated that the hostages were likely shot while in Hamas captivity.
Four additional bodies that were found near the hostages in the same tunnel in Khan Younis are believed to be their captors. Their bodies showed no gunshot wounds.

The investigation suggested that the terrorists were killed from suffocation when IDF forces were operating in the area six months ago and fire broke out inside the tunnel. The terrorists might have thought that IDF forces were on their way to rescue the hostages and decided to shoot them, the IDF estimates.

https://allisrael.com/idf-says-the-bodies-of-6-hostages-extracted-from-gaza-have-gunshot-wounds-suggesting-they-were-murdered-in-captivity

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israeli army: We killed dozens of militants in Khan Yunis and Deir al-Balah in the Gaza Strip

Arab report: IDF forces attack underground targets in Khan Yunis

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Overnight, Israeli fighter jets and attack helicopters launched strikes on multiple Hezbollah sites across southern Lebanon, according to the IDF. Among the targets were a Hezbollah weapons depot in Jebbayn, as well as buildings used by the group in Ayta ash-Shab and Mays al-Jabal, the military reports.

Earlier this morning, the Israeli army says it struck a cell of Hezbollah operatives who were planning to launch rockets at Israel. The cell had been spotted by troops of the 146th Division in southern Lebanon’s Tayr Harfa, and a short while later a drone strike was carried out.A video released by the Israeli army shows a rocket being launched immediately following the strike

Reports in Lebanese channels on a targeted elimination strike against a vehicle and a building in southern Lebanon

———WEST BANK——————————-

Clashes erupt with Israeli security forces in Osarin, south of Nablus

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The tanker “Sunion,” that was hit by the Houthis in the Red Sea was carrying 150,000 tons of crude oil and poses a serious navigational and environmental risk. The Houthi attack sparked a fire that led to engine failure, forcing the evacuation of the crew to Djibouti.

“That is an environmental disaster that they are going to have to deal with,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said Thursday, according to The Hill. “What exactly does this accomplish? They said they were launching these attacks to help the people of Gaza, not sure how that helps anyone in Gaza.”

The Houthis released a statement suggesting they’re not much concerned with the Pentagon’s scolding over the environment. The terrorists said they “will not cease until the aggression is stopped and the siege on our brothers in the Gaza Strip is lifted.”
The Houthis launch attacks almost daily, with the U.S. doing little to deter them.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/pentagon-houthis-red-sea/2024/08/22/id/1177576/

OBSERVATION - The Houthi see weakness in the US / Coalition stance and even the occasional air strike on Houthi facilities is weak. Our policy makers have no concept of the arab/islamic mind set in these matters.

——— FORECAST ————————-

The tempo of airstrikes in Lebanon has throttled back to levels generally seen prior to the past few days. Heavy emphasis is still on ammo dumps and drone strikes on Hezbollah leadership.

Gaza operations ebb and flow based on identification of remnants of Hamas trying to pull together in an effort to regain some form of control. Most of these will be located in traditionally ‘off limits’ areas such as in refugee tent encampments, schools, hospitals and mosques. Chances of a ceasefire and hostage release are virtually zero at this stage as Hamas would essentially have to cede defeat.

Another key sticking point that is growing is Egypt’s demands that Israel leave the Philadelphi corridor - the strip of supposedly no man’s land on the Gaza side of the Egyptian border. Israeli operations has proven that the numerous tunnels Hamas constructed and operated beneath this section into Egypt was a major route of importing weapons and related items. Someone in the Egyptian govt was getting rich and they one want to keep the money coming and two, they’ve been embarrassed by the fact that they have not been honest with Israel and the rest of the world in their dealings with Hamas.

Finally, analysis still reads Iran as waiting for Gaza negotiations to reach some kind of a conclusion. Their April attack brought a lot of global heat for upending what was thought to be a ceasefire deal at that time. They don’t want a repeat of such negative PR. Evidence that the current round in Egypt are going no where and Israel is rebuffing the US’ efforts to force Israel into a unilateral ceasefire are not happening as well.

The alternative is that Iran is going to try to wait out the US military presence in the region. With two carrier battle groups plus extra destroyers as well as other western navies/air forces present a repeat of Iran’s April failure is likely in the cards. Even if one of the carriers rotates out soon, there is a lot of equipment remaining. Iran would still have to deal with US F22s, F35’s,.F16s, F15s etc deployed to the region .

At present, the delay appears to be continuing. Hezbollah is being held back from going on its own. Israel is taking the opportunity to continue to pare down Hezbollah’s combat capabilities while updating intel in Iran for any counter strikes.

Lebanon -

A pro-Hezbollah commentator in Lebanon sparked online outrage after a video surfaced on social media in which he warned Lebanese Christians to “be very careful.”

In an interview on Lebanese TV, the pro-Hezbollah commentator Reda Saad said that “the role of Christians in Lebanon has ended.”

“I want to address our Christian brethren in Lebanon,” Saad stated. “They should be very careful, as this rhetoric lays the foundation for future hostility.”
Saad also referred to the highly problematic political situation in Lebanon, where the country has been unable to choose a new president since 2022. The Lebanese constitution was designed to share power between different religious factions and ensure that each major group has representation in government.
By law, the Lebanese president must come from a Christian political party.

“You have become a minority in this country; and [yet] you still hold many sensitive positions in the country. No one will continue to accept this situation. The future generations will not accept a Christian president. The president must be a Sunni or a Shia Muslim.”

Saad finished by stating that Muslims would soon reject the current political situation and impose a new system based on their majority status.
“We represent the majority in this country, and we want our share in this sectarian regime. We represent the majority as Muslims in Lebanon. We are the majority in this country, and we want our share according to our size.”

https://allisrael.com/hezbollah-affiliated-commentator-says-role-of-christians-in-lebanon-has-ended

OBSERVATION - Lebanon was once a predominantly Christian nation. The influx of Palestinians and other islamic arabs stimulated the civil war and has maintained chaos in the nation since. For much of the country, Hezbollah is the defacto ruler of the nation. Threats like this raise the specter of a renewed civil war and are an attempt to keep them out of any future conflict with Israel.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

***
Five U.S. Secret Service employees have been placed on administrative leave as investigations continue into the botched security effort that allowed the July 13 assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump’s life, which killed one man and wounded Trump and two others.

“One member of Trump’s personal protective team and four members of the Secret Service’s Pittsburgh Field Office, including the special agent in charge, have been placed on leave,” according to Fox News Online, noting a recently revealed security communications breakdown on July 13:

“Text messages sent by local law enforcement responsible for monitoring the rally flagged Crooks to colleagues as suspicious at least 90 minutes before he opened fire. Despite this, he was still able to shoot at Trump and the crowd.”

However, Secret Service agents interviewed by RealClearPolitics say management by their leaders, not the agents on the ground at the rally, allowed the assassination attempt to take place:

“Other current Secret Service agents, including one who requested anonymity for fear of reprisal, pinned the failures at Butler directly on Rowe and other top leaders alleged ties because their decisions leading up to the July 13 rally set the rank-and-file agents up for failure.

“‘Leadership’s mismanagement of technology and personnel are what led to the failures in Butler, but they are not the ones being held accountable,’ a source in the Secret Service community told RealClearPolitics.”

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/five-secret-service-employees-put-leave-after-trump-assassination-attempt

OBSERVATION - All this continues to raise multiple red flags that Crooks was assisted in some manner that day and that what we see as a bungled protection plan was actually deliberate.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Fed Chair Powell is signaling that rate cuts are in the future. Anticipation is 1/4 point, though some think that in the light of the massive jobs revision, there may be a larger reduction.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Yesterday, a political earthquake rolled into he 2024 election and deflated the ‘joy’ balloon of the DNC. That was the scathing rebuke of the democrat party by RFK Jr and his endorsement of trump for president.

RFK Jr.: “The DNC and its media organs engineered a surge of popularity for Vice President Harris based upon - nothing. No policies, no interviews, no debates. Only smoke and mirrors.”

He also hammered harris, saying that he first went to her to discuss his participation - she wouldn’t give him the time of day. He then did the same to Trump who immediately offered him a seat at the table.

Democrat response was vicious and attempted to destroy his character - and not the valid basis of his complaints, which he pretty clearly enunciated in his press conference.

Trump later presented JFK to the crowd at a rally in Arizona - bringing the house down.

IMHO, Kennedy’s move sucked a lot of the hype and hoopla of the harris campaign coming out of the DNC and forced them into a defensive mode far sooner than what they wanted. General, but not universal, view is that this endorsement will significantly help Trump with disaffected democrats and independents. It is bringing the race back to issues and policies and not an emotional ‘vibe’ and other feel goodies.

Kennedy is one of the last old school democrats. His uncle, JFK would by many means be considered to be a conservation by todays standards - showing just how far to the left the democrat party has run in the past decades.

Russia -

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Russia’s heavy infantry losses in Ukraine have led to growing problems in obtaining new soldiers. Many Russian military age men have either left the country or gone into hiding to avoid death or injury as a soldier in Ukraine. In the last year Russia tried offering larger and larger amounts of cash for those who would join. This didn’t work because it was common knowledge that the chances of any soldier going to Ukraine and returning unharmed were low.

This led to the recent practice of army recruiting officials raiding businesses looking for Russian men or foreign workers who have avoided registering their status with the government. Businesses have gone along with hiring, and concealing, unregistered men because the heavy losses in Ukraine have caused a growing labor shortage in Russia.

In addition to the raids, which are resisted by employers desperate to keep their operations going, recruiters also stop military age men on the street and demand to see their identification and documents related to their military status. Men who have already served can only be returned to the military if they volunteer. Few do despite the large cash bonuses offered.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/202408240121.aspx#gsc.tab=0

Economic Impact –

The oil depot in the Rostov region has been burning for the seventh day following a Ukraine drone strike and is likely to be a complete loss. The fire is beginning to spread into nearby residential areas, still out of control.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

US citizens in Ukraine being urged to leave the country immediately and by all means. The US believes that Russia is going to attack government facilities and civilian targets in Ukraine in the coming days.

200 people evacuated after a Ukrainian drone strike on ammunition depot in Voronezh region, — governor. State of emergency declared in three settlements in Ostrogozhsky district. 200 people evacuated

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Ukraine is still effectively utilizing maneuver to bypass strong points, encircling and eventually eliminating them. The pace is down largely due to the forces reaching their maximum extension.

Outlook —

Ukraine had a pretty good week, but if the US embassy warning is a valid indicator, it would appear that Russian is set to launch an new round of massive drone and missile strikes large enough to overwhelm Ukraine ADA assets. Prime civilian targets will be the power grid, with winter approaching, no power means a lot of cold Ukrainians.

A massive Russia strike may be the last barrier to US allowing Ukraine to strike deeper Russian targets. Talks have been going on for months to that end. You don’t fight a war with one arm tied behind your back, which is what the west has essentially done with Ukraine - can’t touch Russia or they may get mad. However, with Ukraine drones hitting as deep as Moscow and ground invasion of Kursk, Russian threats have been shown to be hollow.

Russian efforts in Donbas continue to plod along with Russia doing everything it can to maintain the initiative while at the same time shifting reserve forces to Kursk. There are some warning that a break through would result in the loss of the Donbas, Russian forces are probably too extended to exploit it very well.

Ukraine will not be removed from Kursk for quite a while.

Europe / NATO General –

Germany is investigating drone flights, suspected to be Russian surveillance drones, flying over key nuclear infrastructure in the north of the country.

The drones, which have not yet been identified, have been spotted flying over nuclear power facilities in Brunsbüttel, a city north of Hamburg near the coast of the North Sea, according to German newspaper Bild.

The tabloid reported that the Flensburg public prosecutor’s office, which opened an investigation into the drone flights, said that they were looking for “agent activity for sabotage purposes in connection with repeated drone flights.”

The Schleswig-Holstein state criminal police agency suspects that the drones are Russian Orlan-10s, previously used by Russia for surveillance and espionage, Bild said.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-drones-germany-nato-nuclear-plant-1943384

OBSERVATION - This would be a huge security breach if true. There are many other RC aircraft that could be modified for recon and not necessarily need an Orlan to do the trick.

ISRAEL –

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Standard air and artillery strikes across Gaza

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

A barrage of some 10 rockets was launched from Lebanon at the northern city of Kiryat Shmona overnight, the Israeli army says. Some of the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome, while others impacted the city.There are no reports of injuries.

Israeli Broadcasting Authority reports between 90 and 100 rockets have been fired from Lebanese territory towards the north of the country in the past 24 hours.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Overnight in Syria, 4 areas were bombed by Israel. Area of Um Haratheen in West Homs: probably an air defense position. 3 strikes in Hama countryside which targeted the 47th Brigade (biggest explosion) in the South Mounts and area of Khattab (North-West of Hama-city)

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi’s taking a lot of rhetorical heat for hitting and setting on fire a Greek tanker.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Tempo decreasing a little in Gaza, staying moderately high against Hezbollah. Eyes remain fixed on Hezbollah / Iran’s threatened retaliation attack. Hezbollah can act with little warning. Iran may have units in readiness, but current OSINT suggests that they would have some additional actions that would be detectable prior to launch.

I’ve seen rumors that Iran is trying to put together a larger coalition of supporters, beyond its proxy groups, with a goal of actually invading Israel. Pretty slim pickings IMHO. Syria is throughly tied up with its efforts to defeat separatist and keep ISIS at bay. The Gulf states are unlikely to help much, if at all, since most of them hate Iran. Turkey may be one that Iran could work with, having threatened Israel with invasion in recent months. Even Russia(!) who has a military presence in the region supporting Assad and has a growing relationship with Iran for arms and technology. Such an assembly does not appear to be ready any time soon (talking years), but the transjectrory of the events in the ME does indicate that such a move may eventually come about.

Syria -

Iran and Syria FMs had a phone call where Iranian top diplomat said Tehran will continue to support Syria under the new government. They invited each other to visit capitals

Black Swans -

There are a whole flock of the critters out there, more now than ever.

- Political related chaos
- Terror attacks
- Illegal crime surge / growth of gangs
- Economic collapse with multiple scenarios such as stagflation, recession and depression.

Just to list a few. Problem is they are once again starting to merge towards a window associated with the election. Clearly our country is at one of those crossroads in history. Unfortunately IMHO, either path is mined with disastrous potential events.

One needs to war-game (or as I call it - apacatalk) the scenario(s) to see what can be done now to mitigate their effects to yourself and your family. My family is in the process of review and action. Yours should be too.

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