CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
***
DNC is over and now the sprint to elections. Not seeing anything on the radar that would suggest any catalyst for major protests/riots except for a potential Israel v Iran/Hezbollah fight.
***
The Cochise County Sheriff’s Office in Arizona is searching for a man who has made credible threats against former President Trump ahead of his visit to the southern border this afternoon. The suspect, Ronald Lee Syrvud, 66, is wanted on a number of outstanding warrants: in Wisconsin for “DUI/Failure to Appear for DUI” and in Graham County, Ariz., for “Hit/Run and Felony Failure to Register as a Sex Offender.”
***
Protests at the DNC fizzled out to harassing attendees at an after convention party as well as blocking streets.
An outcome of not allowing pro-hamas speaker(s) at the convention has resulted in the disbanding of “Moslems for Harris” action element.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The canadian govt has forced the restart of two rail lines shut down yesterday in a strike. The govt has ordered the union and companies to binding arbitrations.
Canada sends around 75% of all the goods it exports to the US, mostly by rail. A prolonged dispute could have disrupted shipments of a range of goods, from grains and beans to potash, coal and timber.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Military Sealift Command has drafted a plan to remove the crews from 17 Navy support ships due to a lack of qualified mariners to operate the vessels across the Navy, USNI News learned.
The MSC “force generation reset” identified two Lewis and Clark replenishment ships, one fleet oiler, a dozen Spearhead-class Expeditionary Fast Transports (EPF) and two forward-deployed Navy expeditionary sea bases that would enter an “extended maintenance” period and have their crews retasked to other ships in the fleet, three people familiar with the plan told USNI News Thursday.
Based on the crew requirements on the platforms, sideling all the ships could reduce the civilian mariner demand for MSC by as many as 700 billets.
https://news.usni.org/2024/08/22/navy-could-sideline-17-support-ships-due-to-manpower-issues
OBSERVATION - True to forces on land as on sea, logistics is the major driver of any war effort. The force projection of an aircraft carrier CSG is one thing, but an unarmed CSG is a bunch of worthless metal floating in the sea.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Waiting to see if Kennedy endorses Trump today.
The DNC is over and now the final sprint to November begins in earnest.
My impression of the DNC is that they tried to out republican the Republicans. They had an unprecedented PR tsunami that dominated the news ways this week. They also went out of their way to obfuscate any real policy presentations.
Trump has to pry the curtain open and get harris et al to expose their policies and goals sooner rather than later. People have to be broken away from their ‘feelings’ and face the reality of their choices.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris was high on feelings and shallow on policy details - a fact noted by many news sources, even the leftist BBC. Some are going as far as suggesting that harris is going to duplicate bidens ‘basement’ campaign tactic of continued avoidance of unscripted interviews and responses.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024
US chipmaker Microchip Technology disclosed that an “unauthorized party” had compromised “certain servers and some business operations.” This cyberattack raises significant concerns due to Microchip’s critical role in supplying advanced chips to the US defense industry, supporting critical systems such as precision strike and missile defense weapons, radar systems, autonomous platforms, image processing, and command and control centers.
Microchip first detected “potentially suspicious activity involving its information technology (“IT”) systems” on Saturday, the Chandler, Arizona-based company wrote in an SEC filing on Tuesday.
“Upon detecting the issue, the Company began taking steps to assess, contain and remediate the potentially unauthorized activity,” Microchip said.
Microchip admitted that some of its manufacturing facilities had to operate at reduced capacity because of the cyber incident
OBSERVATION - US computer industry relies heavily on microchips and the reduction in production may cascade into delays at the bigger computer makers should this continue for any substantial period.
China –
A Chinese shipyard in Wuhan has launched a submarine which is likely to be the country’s most advanced non-nuclear type. The new boat is larger than existing ones and is the first in the country to feature X-form rudders. There are indications that it may have a vertical launch system (VLS).
OBSERVATION - China has gone beyond aggressively expanding its navy to today challenging the US in number and tonnage. Their growing technological prowess in submarines is another area. Though a conventional diesel-electric designed for shallow water operations, the potential inclusion of vertical launched missiles gives it a greater regional potential for force projection.
Russia -
Kerch Bridge update –
Russian army deployed smoke screen at the Kerch bridge, amid missile threat alert. The bridge is under greater scrutiny following suspension of ferry service at port Kavkaz until further notice, until liquidation of consequences of the missile strike at the ferry. The bridge is now the only real access point into Crimea for Russia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Navy of Ukraine officially confirmed the destruction of the Russian ferry Conroe Trader in the port of Kavkaz, Krasnodar Territory. In addition to fuel and lubricants, it also transported weapons, - the spokesman of the Navy. The ferry and port facilities were reportedly hit by Ukrainian Neptune missiles.
The Ukraine third assault brigade is advancing in the Kharkiv region. The operation was aimed at knocking out Russian offensive capability and reportedly has captured multiple entrenched positions at a depth of 2km.
Explosions were audible overnight in Proletarsk, Russia with some reports suggesting new drone attack at burning oil depot. Ukraine attacked again this morning fuel depots in the Rostov region of Russia with drones.
Ukrainian drones hit Mariupol overnight.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations throughout the Kursk Oblast salient on August 21 and have made additional marginal advances.
Components of over a couple dozen Russian units are reportedly been deployed or in the process of deploying to Kursk. Among them a VDV regiment from Crimea.
Ocheretyne -
Russian assaults focused on the southwestern margin of the salient overnight.
Outlook —
So far Ukraine has been able to sustain offensive operations in Kursk. Slowdown due largely to the capabilities of the force involved to maintain territory as well as attack. Russia is slowly getting it act together in establishing command and control of the hodgepodge of units being sent to the region. The VDV regiment from Crimea is believed to be sent for the purpose of establishing better C2 and leadership of the conscript units in the region.
Ukraine’s deep game continues to hit Russian oil facilities at will. The biggest thing is the essential closure of major ferry traffic in the Crimea region with the destruction of the Conroe Trader. This places a significant burden back onto the Kersch Bridge. Russia has been utilizing ferries to avoid potential logistical problems should Ukraine manage to take the ever vulnerable bridge out.
Ukraine has taken out approximately 14 - S400 and one S500 air defense missile batteries over the past year as part of their deep offensive into Crimea that has also resulted in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet abandoning Crimea. The few remaining ADA units have reportedly been redeployed to protect the Kerch bridge. The seriousness of the loss of the bridge will be hard for Russia to fathom and severely impact logistical support to Russian operations in S Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Cease fire talks ongoing in Egypt.
- Bodies of 6 recovered Israeli hostages showed signs of being executed.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Al Arabiya Channel Report: The talks in Egypt will last at least two days and will end if the disputes are not resolved. The US told the mediators that it would put pressure on Israel, and Egypt and Qatar on Hamas, to continue the talks. Israel will remain on the Philadelphi axis until at least the end of the year.
Later, Egypt’s Al Rad channel reported that the meeting of the Israeli delegation with their Egyptian counterparts ended without progress on the Philadelphia axis and the Rafah crossing. According to the report, during the meeting, the Israelis presented maps of the deployment of forces on the axis.
***
All six bodies of Israeli male hostages who were recovered from Gaza earlier this week had gunshot wounds, the IDF announced on Thursday. Initial autopsy findings indicated that the hostages were likely shot while in Hamas captivity.
Four additional bodies that were found near the hostages in the same tunnel in Khan Younis are believed to be their captors. Their bodies showed no gunshot wounds.
The investigation suggested that the terrorists were killed from suffocation when IDF forces were operating in the area six months ago and fire broke out inside the tunnel. The terrorists might have thought that IDF forces were on their way to rescue the hostages and decided to shoot them, the IDF estimates.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army: We killed dozens of militants in Khan Yunis and Deir al-Balah in the Gaza Strip
Arab report: IDF forces attack underground targets in Khan Yunis
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight, Israeli fighter jets and attack helicopters launched strikes on multiple Hezbollah sites across southern Lebanon, according to the IDF. Among the targets were a Hezbollah weapons depot in Jebbayn, as well as buildings used by the group in Ayta ash-Shab and Mays al-Jabal, the military reports.
Earlier this morning, the Israeli army says it struck a cell of Hezbollah operatives who were planning to launch rockets at Israel. The cell had been spotted by troops of the 146th Division in southern Lebanon’s Tayr Harfa, and a short while later a drone strike was carried out.A video released by the Israeli army shows a rocket being launched immediately following the strike
Reports in Lebanese channels on a targeted elimination strike against a vehicle and a building in southern Lebanon
———WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes erupt with Israeli security forces in Osarin, south of Nablus
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The tanker “Sunion,” that was hit by the Houthis in the Red Sea was carrying 150,000 tons of crude oil and poses a serious navigational and environmental risk. The Houthi attack sparked a fire that led to engine failure, forcing the evacuation of the crew to Djibouti.
“That is an environmental disaster that they are going to have to deal with,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said Thursday, according to The Hill. “What exactly does this accomplish? They said they were launching these attacks to help the people of Gaza, not sure how that helps anyone in Gaza.”
The Houthis released a statement suggesting they’re not much concerned with the Pentagon’s scolding over the environment. The terrorists said they “will not cease until the aggression is stopped and the siege on our brothers in the Gaza Strip is lifted.”
The Houthis launch attacks almost daily, with the U.S. doing little to deter them.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/pentagon-houthis-red-sea/2024/08/22/id/1177576/
OBSERVATION - The Houthi see weakness in the US / Coalition stance and even the occasional air strike on Houthi facilities is weak. Our policy makers have no concept of the arab/islamic mind set in these matters.
——— FORECAST ————————-
The tempo of airstrikes in Lebanon has throttled back to levels generally seen prior to the past few days. Heavy emphasis is still on ammo dumps and drone strikes on Hezbollah leadership.
Gaza operations ebb and flow based on identification of remnants of Hamas trying to pull together in an effort to regain some form of control. Most of these will be located in traditionally ‘off limits’ areas such as in refugee tent encampments, schools, hospitals and mosques. Chances of a ceasefire and hostage release are virtually zero at this stage as Hamas would essentially have to cede defeat.
Another key sticking point that is growing is Egypt’s demands that Israel leave the Philadelphi corridor - the strip of supposedly no man’s land on the Gaza side of the Egyptian border. Israeli operations has proven that the numerous tunnels Hamas constructed and operated beneath this section into Egypt was a major route of importing weapons and related items. Someone in the Egyptian govt was getting rich and they one want to keep the money coming and two, they’ve been embarrassed by the fact that they have not been honest with Israel and the rest of the world in their dealings with Hamas.
Finally, analysis still reads Iran as waiting for Gaza negotiations to reach some kind of a conclusion. Their April attack brought a lot of global heat for upending what was thought to be a ceasefire deal at that time. They don’t want a repeat of such negative PR. Evidence that the current round in Egypt are going no where and Israel is rebuffing the US’ efforts to force Israel into a unilateral ceasefire are not happening as well.
The alternative is that Iran is going to try to wait out the US military presence in the region. With two carrier battle groups plus extra destroyers as well as other western navies/air forces present a repeat of Iran’s April failure is likely in the cards. Even if one of the carriers rotates out soon, there is a lot of equipment remaining. Iran would still have to deal with US F22s, F35’s,.F16s, F15s etc deployed to the region .
At present, the delay appears to be continuing. Hezbollah is being held back from going on its own. Israel is taking the opportunity to continue to pare down Hezbollah’s combat capabilities while updating intel in Iran for any counter strikes.
Lebanon -
A pro-Hezbollah commentator in Lebanon sparked online outrage after a video surfaced on social media in which he warned Lebanese Christians to “be very careful.”
In an interview on Lebanese TV, the pro-Hezbollah commentator Reda Saad said that “the role of Christians in Lebanon has ended.”
“I want to address our Christian brethren in Lebanon,” Saad stated. “They should be very careful, as this rhetoric lays the foundation for future hostility.”
Saad also referred to the highly problematic political situation in Lebanon, where the country has been unable to choose a new president since 2022. The Lebanese constitution was designed to share power between different religious factions and ensure that each major group has representation in government.
By law, the Lebanese president must come from a Christian political party.
“You have become a minority in this country; and [yet] you still hold many sensitive positions in the country. No one will continue to accept this situation. The future generations will not accept a Christian president. The president must be a Sunni or a Shia Muslim.”
Saad finished by stating that Muslims would soon reject the current political situation and impose a new system based on their majority status.
“We represent the majority in this country, and we want our share in this sectarian regime. We represent the majority as Muslims in Lebanon. We are the majority in this country, and we want our share according to our size.”
https://allisrael.com/hezbollah-affiliated-commentator-says-role-of-christians-in-lebanon-has-ended
OBSERVATION - Lebanon was once a predominantly Christian nation. The influx of Palestinians and other islamic arabs stimulated the civil war and has maintained chaos in the nation since. For much of the country, Hezbollah is the defacto ruler of the nation. Threats like this raise the specter of a renewed civil war and are an attempt to keep them out of any future conflict with Israel.
What’s happening in Lebanon now politically is our future if we allow muslim infiltration to continue.
Thanks Godzilla.
“Lebanon was once a predominantly Christian nation.” Yes, my dear friend Nadji (RIP) was so happy to become an American citizen. He told me all about what had happened to Lebanon. They asked him if he wanted to retain his Lebanese passport / citizenship IIRC. He told them they could take it and shove it, as he was never going back. He used to work on ships in the Mediterranean. Smart guy. Hard worker.
“Our policy makers have no concept of the arab/islamic mindset in these matters.” It sure appears that way.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
***
Five U.S. Secret Service employees have been placed on administrative leave as investigations continue into the botched security effort that allowed the July 13 assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump’s life, which killed one man and wounded Trump and two others.
“One member of Trump’s personal protective team and four members of the Secret Service’s Pittsburgh Field Office, including the special agent in charge, have been placed on leave,” according to Fox News Online, noting a recently revealed security communications breakdown on July 13:
“Text messages sent by local law enforcement responsible for monitoring the rally flagged Crooks to colleagues as suspicious at least 90 minutes before he opened fire. Despite this, he was still able to shoot at Trump and the crowd.”
However, Secret Service agents interviewed by RealClearPolitics say management by their leaders, not the agents on the ground at the rally, allowed the assassination attempt to take place:
“Other current Secret Service agents, including one who requested anonymity for fear of reprisal, pinned the failures at Butler directly on Rowe and other top leaders alleged ties because their decisions leading up to the July 13 rally set the rank-and-file agents up for failure.
“‘Leadership’s mismanagement of technology and personnel are what led to the failures in Butler, but they are not the ones being held accountable,’ a source in the Secret Service community told RealClearPolitics.”
OBSERVATION - All this continues to raise multiple red flags that Crooks was assisted in some manner that day and that what we see as a bungled protection plan was actually deliberate.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Fed Chair Powell is signaling that rate cuts are in the future. Anticipation is 1/4 point, though some think that in the light of the massive jobs revision, there may be a larger reduction.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Yesterday, a political earthquake rolled into he 2024 election and deflated the ‘joy’ balloon of the DNC. That was the scathing rebuke of the democrat party by RFK Jr and his endorsement of trump for president.
RFK Jr.: “The DNC and its media organs engineered a surge of popularity for Vice President Harris based upon - nothing. No policies, no interviews, no debates. Only smoke and mirrors.”
He also hammered harris, saying that he first went to her to discuss his participation - she wouldn’t give him the time of day. He then did the same to Trump who immediately offered him a seat at the table.
Democrat response was vicious and attempted to destroy his character - and not the valid basis of his complaints, which he pretty clearly enunciated in his press conference.
Trump later presented JFK to the crowd at a rally in Arizona - bringing the house down.
IMHO, Kennedy’s move sucked a lot of the hype and hoopla of the harris campaign coming out of the DNC and forced them into a defensive mode far sooner than what they wanted. General, but not universal, view is that this endorsement will significantly help Trump with disaffected democrats and independents. It is bringing the race back to issues and policies and not an emotional ‘vibe’ and other feel goodies.
Kennedy is one of the last old school democrats. His uncle, JFK would by many means be considered to be a conservation by todays standards - showing just how far to the left the democrat party has run in the past decades.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia’s heavy infantry losses in Ukraine have led to growing problems in obtaining new soldiers. Many Russian military age men have either left the country or gone into hiding to avoid death or injury as a soldier in Ukraine. In the last year Russia tried offering larger and larger amounts of cash for those who would join. This didn’t work because it was common knowledge that the chances of any soldier going to Ukraine and returning unharmed were low.
This led to the recent practice of army recruiting officials raiding businesses looking for Russian men or foreign workers who have avoided registering their status with the government. Businesses have gone along with hiring, and concealing, unregistered men because the heavy losses in Ukraine have caused a growing labor shortage in Russia.
In addition to the raids, which are resisted by employers desperate to keep their operations going, recruiters also stop military age men on the street and demand to see their identification and documents related to their military status. Men who have already served can only be returned to the military if they volunteer. Few do despite the large cash bonuses offered.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/202408240121.aspx#gsc.tab=0
Economic Impact –
The oil depot in the Rostov region has been burning for the seventh day following a Ukraine drone strike and is likely to be a complete loss. The fire is beginning to spread into nearby residential areas, still out of control.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
US citizens in Ukraine being urged to leave the country immediately and by all means. The US believes that Russia is going to attack government facilities and civilian targets in Ukraine in the coming days.
200 people evacuated after a Ukrainian drone strike on ammunition depot in Voronezh region, — governor. State of emergency declared in three settlements in Ostrogozhsky district. 200 people evacuated
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukraine is still effectively utilizing maneuver to bypass strong points, encircling and eventually eliminating them. The pace is down largely due to the forces reaching their maximum extension.
Outlook —
Ukraine had a pretty good week, but if the US embassy warning is a valid indicator, it would appear that Russian is set to launch an new round of massive drone and missile strikes large enough to overwhelm Ukraine ADA assets. Prime civilian targets will be the power grid, with winter approaching, no power means a lot of cold Ukrainians.
A massive Russia strike may be the last barrier to US allowing Ukraine to strike deeper Russian targets. Talks have been going on for months to that end. You don’t fight a war with one arm tied behind your back, which is what the west has essentially done with Ukraine - can’t touch Russia or they may get mad. However, with Ukraine drones hitting as deep as Moscow and ground invasion of Kursk, Russian threats have been shown to be hollow.
Russian efforts in Donbas continue to plod along with Russia doing everything it can to maintain the initiative while at the same time shifting reserve forces to Kursk. There are some warning that a break through would result in the loss of the Donbas, Russian forces are probably too extended to exploit it very well.
Ukraine will not be removed from Kursk for quite a while.
Europe / NATO General –
Germany is investigating drone flights, suspected to be Russian surveillance drones, flying over key nuclear infrastructure in the north of the country.
The drones, which have not yet been identified, have been spotted flying over nuclear power facilities in Brunsbüttel, a city north of Hamburg near the coast of the North Sea, according to German newspaper Bild.
The tabloid reported that the Flensburg public prosecutor’s office, which opened an investigation into the drone flights, said that they were looking for “agent activity for sabotage purposes in connection with repeated drone flights.”
The Schleswig-Holstein state criminal police agency suspects that the drones are Russian Orlan-10s, previously used by Russia for surveillance and espionage, Bild said.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-drones-germany-nato-nuclear-plant-1943384
OBSERVATION - This would be a huge security breach if true. There are many other RC aircraft that could be modified for recon and not necessarily need an Orlan to do the trick.
ISRAEL –
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Standard air and artillery strikes across Gaza
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A barrage of some 10 rockets was launched from Lebanon at the northern city of Kiryat Shmona overnight, the Israeli army says. Some of the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome, while others impacted the city.There are no reports of injuries.
Israeli Broadcasting Authority reports between 90 and 100 rockets have been fired from Lebanese territory towards the north of the country in the past 24 hours.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Overnight in Syria, 4 areas were bombed by Israel. Area of Um Haratheen in West Homs: probably an air defense position. 3 strikes in Hama countryside which targeted the 47th Brigade (biggest explosion) in the South Mounts and area of Khattab (North-West of Hama-city)
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi’s taking a lot of rhetorical heat for hitting and setting on fire a Greek tanker.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Tempo decreasing a little in Gaza, staying moderately high against Hezbollah. Eyes remain fixed on Hezbollah / Iran’s threatened retaliation attack. Hezbollah can act with little warning. Iran may have units in readiness, but current OSINT suggests that they would have some additional actions that would be detectable prior to launch.
I’ve seen rumors that Iran is trying to put together a larger coalition of supporters, beyond its proxy groups, with a goal of actually invading Israel. Pretty slim pickings IMHO. Syria is throughly tied up with its efforts to defeat separatist and keep ISIS at bay. The Gulf states are unlikely to help much, if at all, since most of them hate Iran. Turkey may be one that Iran could work with, having threatened Israel with invasion in recent months. Even Russia(!) who has a military presence in the region supporting Assad and has a growing relationship with Iran for arms and technology. Such an assembly does not appear to be ready any time soon (talking years), but the transjectrory of the events in the ME does indicate that such a move may eventually come about.
Syria -
Iran and Syria FMs had a phone call where Iranian top diplomat said Tehran will continue to support Syria under the new government. They invited each other to visit capitals
Black Swans -
There are a whole flock of the critters out there, more now than ever.
- Political related chaos
- Terror attacks
- Illegal crime surge / growth of gangs
- Economic collapse with multiple scenarios such as stagflation, recession and depression.
Just to list a few. Problem is they are once again starting to merge towards a window associated with the election. Clearly our country is at one of those crossroads in history. Unfortunately IMHO, either path is mined with disastrous potential events.
One needs to war-game (or as I call it - apacatalk) the scenario(s) to see what can be done now to mitigate their effects to yourself and your family. My family is in the process of review and action. Yours should be too.