Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
The National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (NCCoE) has signed a collaborative research and development agreement (CRADA) with 15 technology providers and industry experts to collaborate on the first use case under the Mobile Driver’s License (mDL) project. The project will start with a focus on implementing mDLs in financial services to meet customer identification program requirements.
Collaborators will work with the NCCoE to accelerate the adoption of digital identity standards and best practices by producing reference architectures, representative workflows, and implementation guides to address real-world cybersecurity, privacy, and usability challenges faced by adoption of mDL in the financial sector.
OBSERVATION - Digital ID with biometrical standards is one of the big goals of the WEF et al. Movement towards such a goal is present at all different levels and nations. This one strikes at a key goal - eventual control of individual access to their funds.
RELATED - The Biden administration is laying the groundwork for wider acceptance of digital identifications, like driver’s licenses you can show on your smartphone — a push that could fundamentally reshape how citizens access everything from public benefits to pornography online.
A draft of a forthcoming executive order viewed by NOTUS pushes federal and state governments to speed adoption of smartphone-based mobile driver’s license and ID options more widely, stating: “It is the policy of the executive branch to strongly encourage the use of digital identity documents.”
Such documents could be submitted digitally and, in combination with biometric scans like facial recognition, could help better verify identity online.
https://www.notus.org/technology/digital-drivers-licenses-biden-supercharge-transition
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Pro-hamas protests are losing steam as they have not garnered the numbers or passion to challenge the police presence
***
Back in the news, Crooks, a 20 year kid in Pennsylvania shooting guns at the same gun range used by DHS agents had an encrypted messaging account in Belgium, where NATO is headquartered. Trump shooter Thomas Crooks also had encrypted messaging accounts in Germany, and New Zealand. The existence of overseas encrypted accounts were know, this is my first notice of the countries of origin.
***
The harris campaign finally released the platform Monday night, including its gun control plans called “Protecting Communities & Tackling the Scourge of Gun Violence.”
According to the platform, the Democrats want:
- Universal background checks.
- “Assault weapon” and standard-capacity magazine bans
- Mandatory safe-storage laws
- Repeal of the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act
- Increased red-flag laws
- Increased funding for the ATF
- Increased funding for the FBI, to conduct more background checks
- Increased funding for the CDC, “because the gun violence epidemic is a public health crisis.”
https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/the-harris-walz-game-plan-for-attacking-the-second-amendment/
OBSERVATION - This is just the tip of the iceberg on this aspect of the democrat’s intended assault on the Constitution. harris is already on record saying she’ll issue an EO banning AR-15 style weapons and begin immediate confiscation. The 2d protects the other amendments and such gross attack will suffer serious pushback as already many of the goals have been tried in court and rendered unconstitutional.
The level of danger to Americans is if the democrats take congress and the WH.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Yesterdays 818,000 downward revision in jobs have caused a number of economists to look closely at the unemployment numbers which in part are associated with the number of jobs. Some initial estimations suggest that unemployment is exceeding 5% and could be as high as 7%. These numbers would be more in line with the subjective feelings of the population. The big question is will the ‘corrected’ numbers be released before the elections?
***
Yesterday’s announcement that revised down 818,000 jobs from what had been reported is being seen as potentially driving the Fed to drop rates at even a greater rate than originally expected. A quarter point was expected now a larger drop is anticipated.
The potential for shockwaves is high. High stock prices and high everything else prices may skyrocket as a lowered rate sends a flash flood of money into the system.
***
US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. Harris-Biden Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo says she doesn’t believe new government data that shows almost a million of the jobs the Harris-Biden admin claimed to have “created” don’t actually exist.
“I’m not familiar with that.” She tried to call the US government’s official jobs data a Donald Trump lie.
***
The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference said it will begin a work strike Thursday morning after the Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) railway announced worker lockouts to begin Thursday morning.
OBSERVATION - Concerns are that this will impact supply lines to the US causing shortages if the strike is prolonged.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft carrier has entered CENTCOM’s AOR in the Middle East. It is currently located in the Indian Ocean still enroute to a station closer to the Gulf region.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
DNC convention all week
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
This Friday, it is being rumored that Kennedy will drop out of the race and cast his support to trump.
According to Charlie Kirk on “X”- “RFK Jr.’s VP, Nicole Shanahan, says their campaign is considering joining forces with Trump to prevent a Harris/Walz administration.
RFK endorsing Trump is the natural move. They both are sworn enemies of the CIA, FBI, and the military machine.”
Statisticians and pollsters are still crunching the numbers (and arguing over what they mean), but most evidence indicates that RFK Jr. leaving the race would benefit Donald Trump.
The value of a potential RFK Jr. endorsement is that it’s deadweight on the Democrats’ post-convention momentum. He saps their rocket fuel. Next week, instead of everyone talking about the DNC and how beautiful/intelligent/Obama-y Harris was, people will be talking, at least in part, about RFK Jr.’s endorsement.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden has essentially dropped off the radar screen since his midnight address at the DNC convention.
Illegal Immigration –
Monitoring reports that violent central american gangs are taking over apartment complexes in Aurora CO. Local govt claims that is not the case, but locals say otherwise.
Japan –
Japan reaffirms to Taiwan that they will help defend against any Chinese attempts at taking over the island.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Analysts are indicating that Russia is diverting largely untrained conscripts to the Kursk fight and not the the Donbas effort.
Unconfirmed reports are that putin is attempting to use conscripts in the effort in order to avoid a broader call-up of forces, which in turn will expose him to criticism over how the war has been fought.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Mezheve village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Ukrainian Air Forces: 2 of 10 Shahed drones were shot down overnight, most of the drones have attacked positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces in Kharkiv region
On the night of August 22, air defense systems repelled attacks over six regions, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. Over the Volgograd Region, 13 aircraft-type drones were shot down and intercepted, over the Rostov Region - 7, over the Belgorod Region - 4, over the Voronezh Region - 2, over the Bryansk Region and the Kursk Region - one each.
Explosions were reported at Marinovka airfield in Volgograd region of Russia
The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv assesses that during the next several days and through the weekend there is an increased risk of both nighttime and daytime Russian drone and missile attacks throughout Ukraine in connection with Ukraine’s Independence Day on August 24.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Governor of Bryansk region says FSB and Russian army foiled an attempt of Ukrainian scout group to enter Klimovo district of Bransk region
Due to large logistical problems with train lines in the Kursk region Russian forces are being forced to drive logistical convoys down the M-4 highway from Rostov to Voronezh to Kursk. This is setting them up to face the maelstrom of drone and HIMAR strikes.
All attempts by Russian forces to establish pontoon bridges over the Seym river are being thwarted, sometimes even before they have time to even built them. They are targets in a shooting gallery from drones and HIMARS.
Outlook —
Ukraine’s drone attacks overnight have been the largest in many months. Moscow proper was targeted by about a dozen of them. Bringing the war to the Russians. Apparently, Russia was able to shoot them down, having been given time to prepare their defenses.
Observations on the upcoming Aug 25 anniversary of the independence of Ukraine is a likely reason for the limited Russian missile assaults of late. They have been taking the time to build up their supplies for a massive strike or series of strikes.
The activity in Bransk, suggests that Ukraine is continuing to actively probe Russian border defenses for signs of more weakness. This probe is near the Belarus border and if Ukraine were to exploit it the Russian elements essentially trapped west of the Seym river could find themselves in even a more precarious position.
The Kursk offensive still has putin in a bad place, trying to keep information limited to the general public and diverting resources to stop the advances.
Belarus -
Belarus is drawing more and more troops, air defense forces and aircraft to the border with Ukraine, — Associated Press
OBSERVATION - Analysts do not believe this to be a precursor to Belarus entering the fight but is probably driven by Russian concerns over the fight in Kursk.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Sinwar wants a guarantee that he will not be assassinated.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Sinwar, who once claimed that it would be an honor to die fighting Israel, has made his own survival a condition of any ceasefire in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
In southern Gaza’s Rafah area, Israeli troops eliminated 50+ terrorists and dismantled significant terrorist infrastructure.
In Gaza City, Israel’s air force struck a weapons facility next to a Hamas command-and-control center located inside a former Gaza school.
In Khan Yunis and Deir al-Balah, troops killed numerous terrorists, destroyed dozens of terror sites, and located rockets to be fired at Israel.
***
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared on Wednesday during a visit to the Gaza-Egypt border that the IDF has achieved victory over Hamas’s Rafah brigade.
“I came here first and foremost to express my appreciation [to the soldiers]. The Rafah brigade was defeated by the IDF’s Division 162,” Gallant said at the Philadelphi Corridor, the 8.7-mile-long buffer zone captured by Israeli forces in May.
Since taking control of the area, the IDF has located and destroyed 150 terror tunnels, and Gallant instructed the forces to finish the destruction of the remaining tunnels, which Hamas used to smuggle weapons and materials from Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula into the Gaza Strip.
“Out of the 150 tunnels that were destroyed, around 100 tunnels are in fact trenches dug using engineering tools above ground and then covered with a meter or two of dirt,” the minister said.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-45/
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Last night, the IDF launched a widespread attack campaign on southern Lebanon, targeting and obliterating over ten locations, including Hezbollah weapon storage facilities.
This is believed to be the most widespread attack on southern Lebanon since the start of the war.
Some analysts are wondering if these strikes mark the beginning of a new escalation or preemptive strike.
China is telling its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.
——— FORECAST ————————-
I’ve been noting for some time now how Israel is preparing the battlefield for the eventual main event against Hezbollah. They have been doing this via targeted strikes against senior leadership and taking out critical logistical and command facilities. The airstrikes overnight have been characterized as the largest since Oct 7 and mark a significant increase in tempo. These strikes hit numerous ammo supply locations. Over the past few days, Hezbollah has lost a lot of ammo dumps. This will deny them the ability to re-arm during the conflict. I don’t have the numbers in front of me - the Mossads probably does - as to just what % of Hezbollah stockpiles have been reduced.
Remember, Hezbollah has been preparing since at least 2008 for the big one against Israel and it is unlikely they have all their eggs in a few baskets. 150,000 rockets are probably squirreled across much of Lebanon, many in underground bunkers.
But the intensity and specificity of Israeli airstrikes suggest that Israel has gotten good intel and the motivation to take these locations out, and as videos of the strikes posted on social media indicate - they have hit some big ammo dumps.
I think that one of the analysts commentary I’ve read suggesting these strikes are preemptive may be pretty close to on target (no pun intended). However, remembering other intelligence evaluations, the clock is ticking towards Israel launching on Hezbollah in the very near future. In this case, Israel is not waiting for the delayed Iran/Hezbollah attack, but pressing forward in spite of that threat. Now in the last half of August, the window for Israel’s move on Hezbollah grows closer and indicators are becoming red across the board.
Key indicators to watch for are increased ground force movement to the north along with further intensifying air and artillery strikes. IMHO, Israel has the elements in place for a nominal ground assault into Lebanon but is building up a larger force in order to have better operational reserves.
Iran –
(ISW). An unspecified Iranian official claimed that there is an ongoing “high-level debate” within Iran over the continued utility of the supreme leader’s 2003 fatwa against nuclear weapons. This debate is consistent with previous statements from Iranian officials that normalized discussions about Iran’s ability to procure nuclear weapons. There are some indications that Iran is setting conditions to be able to quickly move towards a weapon, should it choose to do so.
The Iranian UN mission likely published this statement to generate psychological and informational effects, rather than to signal Iran’s serious intention to conduct a ground attack into Israel imminently.
***
The Islamic regime in Iran is trying to assassinate former President Donald Trump, with hopes of doing so by Nov. 5, Election Day.
Multiple governmental sources associated with U.S. allies across the Mideast have informed me of the danger.
In the assessments of several governments, the Iranian regime has made clear it wants to rid itself of Trump — and it believes it must do so by Election Day.
The ayatollahs’ mortal animus against Trump is not a secret.
After Trump ordered a Baghdad drone missile strike in January 2020 that successfully killed Qassem Soleimani, head of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), Tehran vowed bloody revenge.
Soleimani was a revered figure within the regime’s base of supporters, second only in power to Ayatollah Khamanei.
Now, with the U.S. election race close, the power figures believe Iran’s growing status as a regional Mideast powerhouse will be at serious risk if the former president returns to the White House.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/iran-trump-election-day/2024/08/21/id/1177404/
Venezuela -
Anti-Maduro elements have completely lost the initiative and are facing progressive persecution and arrest.
Great information Godzilla. Thanks.
I believe the locals over the government.
ANY day.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
***
DNC is over and now the sprint to elections. Not seeing anything on the radar that would suggest any catalyst for major protests/riots except for a potential Israel v Iran/Hezbollah fight.
***
The Cochise County Sheriff’s Office in Arizona is searching for a man who has made credible threats against former President Trump ahead of his visit to the southern border this afternoon. The suspect, Ronald Lee Syrvud, 66, is wanted on a number of outstanding warrants: in Wisconsin for “DUI/Failure to Appear for DUI” and in Graham County, Ariz., for “Hit/Run and Felony Failure to Register as a Sex Offender.”
***
Protests at the DNC fizzled out to harassing attendees at an after convention party as well as blocking streets.
An outcome of not allowing pro-hamas speaker(s) at the convention has resulted in the disbanding of “Moslems for Harris” action element.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The canadian govt has forced the restart of two rail lines shut down yesterday in a strike. The govt has ordered the union and companies to binding arbitrations.
Canada sends around 75% of all the goods it exports to the US, mostly by rail. A prolonged dispute could have disrupted shipments of a range of goods, from grains and beans to potash, coal and timber.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Military Sealift Command has drafted a plan to remove the crews from 17 Navy support ships due to a lack of qualified mariners to operate the vessels across the Navy, USNI News learned.
The MSC “force generation reset” identified two Lewis and Clark replenishment ships, one fleet oiler, a dozen Spearhead-class Expeditionary Fast Transports (EPF) and two forward-deployed Navy expeditionary sea bases that would enter an “extended maintenance” period and have their crews retasked to other ships in the fleet, three people familiar with the plan told USNI News Thursday.
Based on the crew requirements on the platforms, sideling all the ships could reduce the civilian mariner demand for MSC by as many as 700 billets.
https://news.usni.org/2024/08/22/navy-could-sideline-17-support-ships-due-to-manpower-issues
OBSERVATION - True to forces on land as on sea, logistics is the major driver of any war effort. The force projection of an aircraft carrier CSG is one thing, but an unarmed CSG is a bunch of worthless metal floating in the sea.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Waiting to see if Kennedy endorses Trump today.
The DNC is over and now the final sprint to November begins in earnest.
My impression of the DNC is that they tried to out republican the Republicans. They had an unprecedented PR tsunami that dominated the news ways this week. They also went out of their way to obfuscate any real policy presentations.
Trump has to pry the curtain open and get harris et al to expose their policies and goals sooner rather than later. People have to be broken away from their ‘feelings’ and face the reality of their choices.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris was high on feelings and shallow on policy details - a fact noted by many news sources, even the leftist BBC. Some are going as far as suggesting that harris is going to duplicate bidens ‘basement’ campaign tactic of continued avoidance of unscripted interviews and responses.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024
US chipmaker Microchip Technology disclosed that an “unauthorized party” had compromised “certain servers and some business operations.” This cyberattack raises significant concerns due to Microchip’s critical role in supplying advanced chips to the US defense industry, supporting critical systems such as precision strike and missile defense weapons, radar systems, autonomous platforms, image processing, and command and control centers.
Microchip first detected “potentially suspicious activity involving its information technology (“IT”) systems” on Saturday, the Chandler, Arizona-based company wrote in an SEC filing on Tuesday.
“Upon detecting the issue, the Company began taking steps to assess, contain and remediate the potentially unauthorized activity,” Microchip said.
Microchip admitted that some of its manufacturing facilities had to operate at reduced capacity because of the cyber incident
OBSERVATION - US computer industry relies heavily on microchips and the reduction in production may cascade into delays at the bigger computer makers should this continue for any substantial period.
China –
A Chinese shipyard in Wuhan has launched a submarine which is likely to be the country’s most advanced non-nuclear type. The new boat is larger than existing ones and is the first in the country to feature X-form rudders. There are indications that it may have a vertical launch system (VLS).
OBSERVATION - China has gone beyond aggressively expanding its navy to today challenging the US in number and tonnage. Their growing technological prowess in submarines is another area. Though a conventional diesel-electric designed for shallow water operations, the potential inclusion of vertical launched missiles gives it a greater regional potential for force projection.
Russia -
Kerch Bridge update –
Russian army deployed smoke screen at the Kerch bridge, amid missile threat alert. The bridge is under greater scrutiny following suspension of ferry service at port Kavkaz until further notice, until liquidation of consequences of the missile strike at the ferry. The bridge is now the only real access point into Crimea for Russia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Navy of Ukraine officially confirmed the destruction of the Russian ferry Conroe Trader in the port of Kavkaz, Krasnodar Territory. In addition to fuel and lubricants, it also transported weapons, - the spokesman of the Navy. The ferry and port facilities were reportedly hit by Ukrainian Neptune missiles.
The Ukraine third assault brigade is advancing in the Kharkiv region. The operation was aimed at knocking out Russian offensive capability and reportedly has captured multiple entrenched positions at a depth of 2km.
Explosions were audible overnight in Proletarsk, Russia with some reports suggesting new drone attack at burning oil depot. Ukraine attacked again this morning fuel depots in the Rostov region of Russia with drones.
Ukrainian drones hit Mariupol overnight.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations throughout the Kursk Oblast salient on August 21 and have made additional marginal advances.
Components of over a couple dozen Russian units are reportedly been deployed or in the process of deploying to Kursk. Among them a VDV regiment from Crimea.
Ocheretyne -
Russian assaults focused on the southwestern margin of the salient overnight.
Outlook —
So far Ukraine has been able to sustain offensive operations in Kursk. Slowdown due largely to the capabilities of the force involved to maintain territory as well as attack. Russia is slowly getting it act together in establishing command and control of the hodgepodge of units being sent to the region. The VDV regiment from Crimea is believed to be sent for the purpose of establishing better C2 and leadership of the conscript units in the region.
Ukraine’s deep game continues to hit Russian oil facilities at will. The biggest thing is the essential closure of major ferry traffic in the Crimea region with the destruction of the Conroe Trader. This places a significant burden back onto the Kersch Bridge. Russia has been utilizing ferries to avoid potential logistical problems should Ukraine manage to take the ever vulnerable bridge out.
Ukraine has taken out approximately 14 - S400 and one S500 air defense missile batteries over the past year as part of their deep offensive into Crimea that has also resulted in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet abandoning Crimea. The few remaining ADA units have reportedly been redeployed to protect the Kerch bridge. The seriousness of the loss of the bridge will be hard for Russia to fathom and severely impact logistical support to Russian operations in S Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Cease fire talks ongoing in Egypt.
- Bodies of 6 recovered Israeli hostages showed signs of being executed.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Al Arabiya Channel Report: The talks in Egypt will last at least two days and will end if the disputes are not resolved. The US told the mediators that it would put pressure on Israel, and Egypt and Qatar on Hamas, to continue the talks. Israel will remain on the Philadelphi axis until at least the end of the year.
Later, Egypt’s Al Rad channel reported that the meeting of the Israeli delegation with their Egyptian counterparts ended without progress on the Philadelphia axis and the Rafah crossing. According to the report, during the meeting, the Israelis presented maps of the deployment of forces on the axis.
***
All six bodies of Israeli male hostages who were recovered from Gaza earlier this week had gunshot wounds, the IDF announced on Thursday. Initial autopsy findings indicated that the hostages were likely shot while in Hamas captivity.
Four additional bodies that were found near the hostages in the same tunnel in Khan Younis are believed to be their captors. Their bodies showed no gunshot wounds.
The investigation suggested that the terrorists were killed from suffocation when IDF forces were operating in the area six months ago and fire broke out inside the tunnel. The terrorists might have thought that IDF forces were on their way to rescue the hostages and decided to shoot them, the IDF estimates.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army: We killed dozens of militants in Khan Yunis and Deir al-Balah in the Gaza Strip
Arab report: IDF forces attack underground targets in Khan Yunis
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight, Israeli fighter jets and attack helicopters launched strikes on multiple Hezbollah sites across southern Lebanon, according to the IDF. Among the targets were a Hezbollah weapons depot in Jebbayn, as well as buildings used by the group in Ayta ash-Shab and Mays al-Jabal, the military reports.
Earlier this morning, the Israeli army says it struck a cell of Hezbollah operatives who were planning to launch rockets at Israel. The cell had been spotted by troops of the 146th Division in southern Lebanon’s Tayr Harfa, and a short while later a drone strike was carried out.A video released by the Israeli army shows a rocket being launched immediately following the strike
Reports in Lebanese channels on a targeted elimination strike against a vehicle and a building in southern Lebanon
———WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes erupt with Israeli security forces in Osarin, south of Nablus
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The tanker “Sunion,” that was hit by the Houthis in the Red Sea was carrying 150,000 tons of crude oil and poses a serious navigational and environmental risk. The Houthi attack sparked a fire that led to engine failure, forcing the evacuation of the crew to Djibouti.
“That is an environmental disaster that they are going to have to deal with,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said Thursday, according to The Hill. “What exactly does this accomplish? They said they were launching these attacks to help the people of Gaza, not sure how that helps anyone in Gaza.”
The Houthis released a statement suggesting they’re not much concerned with the Pentagon’s scolding over the environment. The terrorists said they “will not cease until the aggression is stopped and the siege on our brothers in the Gaza Strip is lifted.”
The Houthis launch attacks almost daily, with the U.S. doing little to deter them.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/pentagon-houthis-red-sea/2024/08/22/id/1177576/
OBSERVATION - The Houthi see weakness in the US / Coalition stance and even the occasional air strike on Houthi facilities is weak. Our policy makers have no concept of the arab/islamic mind set in these matters.
——— FORECAST ————————-
The tempo of airstrikes in Lebanon has throttled back to levels generally seen prior to the past few days. Heavy emphasis is still on ammo dumps and drone strikes on Hezbollah leadership.
Gaza operations ebb and flow based on identification of remnants of Hamas trying to pull together in an effort to regain some form of control. Most of these will be located in traditionally ‘off limits’ areas such as in refugee tent encampments, schools, hospitals and mosques. Chances of a ceasefire and hostage release are virtually zero at this stage as Hamas would essentially have to cede defeat.
Another key sticking point that is growing is Egypt’s demands that Israel leave the Philadelphi corridor - the strip of supposedly no man’s land on the Gaza side of the Egyptian border. Israeli operations has proven that the numerous tunnels Hamas constructed and operated beneath this section into Egypt was a major route of importing weapons and related items. Someone in the Egyptian govt was getting rich and they one want to keep the money coming and two, they’ve been embarrassed by the fact that they have not been honest with Israel and the rest of the world in their dealings with Hamas.
Finally, analysis still reads Iran as waiting for Gaza negotiations to reach some kind of a conclusion. Their April attack brought a lot of global heat for upending what was thought to be a ceasefire deal at that time. They don’t want a repeat of such negative PR. Evidence that the current round in Egypt are going no where and Israel is rebuffing the US’ efforts to force Israel into a unilateral ceasefire are not happening as well.
The alternative is that Iran is going to try to wait out the US military presence in the region. With two carrier battle groups plus extra destroyers as well as other western navies/air forces present a repeat of Iran’s April failure is likely in the cards. Even if one of the carriers rotates out soon, there is a lot of equipment remaining. Iran would still have to deal with US F22s, F35’s,.F16s, F15s etc deployed to the region .
At present, the delay appears to be continuing. Hezbollah is being held back from going on its own. Israel is taking the opportunity to continue to pare down Hezbollah’s combat capabilities while updating intel in Iran for any counter strikes.
Lebanon -
A pro-Hezbollah commentator in Lebanon sparked online outrage after a video surfaced on social media in which he warned Lebanese Christians to “be very careful.”
In an interview on Lebanese TV, the pro-Hezbollah commentator Reda Saad said that “the role of Christians in Lebanon has ended.”
“I want to address our Christian brethren in Lebanon,” Saad stated. “They should be very careful, as this rhetoric lays the foundation for future hostility.”
Saad also referred to the highly problematic political situation in Lebanon, where the country has been unable to choose a new president since 2022. The Lebanese constitution was designed to share power between different religious factions and ensure that each major group has representation in government.
By law, the Lebanese president must come from a Christian political party.
“You have become a minority in this country; and [yet] you still hold many sensitive positions in the country. No one will continue to accept this situation. The future generations will not accept a Christian president. The president must be a Sunni or a Shia Muslim.”
Saad finished by stating that Muslims would soon reject the current political situation and impose a new system based on their majority status.
“We represent the majority in this country, and we want our share in this sectarian regime. We represent the majority as Muslims in Lebanon. We are the majority in this country, and we want our share according to our size.”
https://allisrael.com/hezbollah-affiliated-commentator-says-role-of-christians-in-lebanon-has-ended
OBSERVATION - Lebanon was once a predominantly Christian nation. The influx of Palestinians and other islamic arabs stimulated the civil war and has maintained chaos in the nation since. For much of the country, Hezbollah is the defacto ruler of the nation. Threats like this raise the specter of a renewed civil war and are an attempt to keep them out of any future conflict with Israel.