Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is now warning countries across the globe to prepare for “an era of shock events” as the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches.
From the WEF:
Briefly, here are three shock events to consider that may impact global stability:
- A new global extremist group emerges: with the world distracted with multiple major wars and leadership in decline, this could be an opportunistic time for a new extremist group to make its mark – and maybe not face as many consequences. Perhaps, it will even leverage AI tools to kick off a new phase of terrorism.
- A cyber pandemic – that is intentional: the massive global IT outage in July was not terrorism, but simply a faulty software update from a cybersecurity firm. Yet, it cost Fortune 500 companies $5.4 billion in damages and shut down flights, banks, hospitals, retailers and other services worldwide. Imagine if a bad actor did this – on purpose and an even grander scale?
- Climate change claims its first island nation in the pos-pandemic era: The COP28 plan to phase out fossil fuels may take decades and it’s unclear if world leaders will follow through. What’s more probable is that in the meantime certain island nations (who emit only 0.3% of global emissions) will keep fighting their cause, whether it is through international law or new climate funds. But, if these islands do succumb to climate change, sinking a lot faster than we expect, how will climate activists and world leaders react?
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/08/4-global-risks-to-look-out-for-in-the-post-pandemic-era/
OBSERVATION - I find this list interesting. First, no listing of an actual plandemic inspire of all the rumblings about bird flu so far this year.
Extremist group? Pretty vague as the existing ones pretty well cover the market. Or are they referring to the patriots in the US?
Cyber ‘pandemic’ - now this is one that the WEF has been ‘warning’ about for a while. Mostly in context of hitting financial institutions.
Finally global warming threats. They think islands will start sinking.
Bottom line to me is this may represent some sort of telegraphing disasters planned to disrupt the world and leverage into acceptance of a global ruling authority. With the exception of the cyberthreat, they seem kinda out there.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Antifa aligned elements of pro-Hamas rioters moved on the Israeli consulate in Chicago last night that resulted in a violent confrontation with police. The Chicago police, however, had a significant numerical advantage over the rioters
A group called Behind Enemy Lines is apparently behind the mass demonstration, but is not affiliated with another anti-Israel group that marched on the DNC on Monday night.
OBSERVATION - This was another relatively small group, though highly violently oriented. Police were able to encircle them and begin arrests.
So far the pro-hamas protestors and antifa have been unable to muster a group sizable to force the police back. It seems that their call for action fell on passive ears.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will downward revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by up to 1 million. This means that all “beats” recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US job market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit.
Economic analysts at Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo said job growth data revisions due out today will likely show job growth from March 2023 to March 2024 was at least 600,000 jobs lower than the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported.
”A large negative revision would indicate that the strength of hiring was already fading before this past April,” Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner said.
According to Bloomberg, payrolls growth between April 2023 to March 2024 was up to 1 million weaker than previously reported.
There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer — and perhaps more so — than originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year.
OBSERVATION - This is huge. The fed had been toting the job market for its decisions to keep rates high - and now caught believing their own propaganda. Being off by such a large number is either a deliberate falsification of the numbers or a clown crew on incompetents running the show - or both.
The fake numbers that are initially released month after month have given the American people the impression that the economy is performing far better than it actually is.
It also raises the probability that the ‘soft landing’ the fed and treasury dept have been preaching is about to hit rock bottom in a nasty way.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Biden ordered U.S. forces to prepare for possible nuclear confrontations with Russia, China, and North Korea — NYT
According to the New York Times; U.S. Biden in March approved a highly classified document regarding the United States’s Nuclear Strategy, dubbed the “Nuclear Employment Guidance” which for the first time seeks to reorient the U.S. deterrence strategy from Russia to China, and their growing nuclear arsenal. The document also seeks to prepare the United States for a possible coordinated nuclear confrontation from Russia, China, and North Korea.
OBSERVATION - There are some alarmist opinions out there, but I for one think that a rethink involving China and even NK is long over due. Cold war era thinking and technology of the era had both countries on the periphery of our threat envelope. Now things have significantly changed.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC
In recent months, local health authorities have conducted emergency infection disease response drills across China.
On Aug. 15, Dingxi City in Gansu Province, a district in Yancheng City in Jiangsu Province, and Lingchuan County in Shanxi Province carried out emergency drills for the outbreak of “pneumonia of unknown cause,” according to an official notice.
A staff member of the Gansu provincial government’s health hotline told the media on Aug. 15 that the national-level authorities had ordered officials in 10 provinces to conduct emergent infectious disease drills by the end of August.
The ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) first used the term “pneumonia of unknown cause” in 2003 to describe the SARS outbreak in China before it was officially named; it was also used when COVID-19 first broke out in Wuhan, Hubei Province, in late 2019.
Drills have been conducted since June in more than a dozen provinces and regions, including the nation’s capital, Beijing, according to notices issued by local health departments and Chinese media reports. This is the first official annual infectious disease emergency drill since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sean Lin, a microbiologist and assistant professor in the biomedical science department at Feitian College, said that in the context of the sluggish economy and high unemployment rate, “this kind of drill may be a special political signal,“ and that ”the authorities are trying to achieve more control over society on the grounds of health.”
OBSERVATION - These latest drills are the largest since the wuhan plandemic broke in 2019-2020. Is this preparation for a real thing coming down? Hard to say.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
DNC convention all week
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Well, official harris absolutely won’t debate under a Fox format - so only two debates.
Kamala Harris just endorsed Biden’s capital gains tax proposal for her campaign…
45% long-term capital gains tax. By far the highest in history.
Combined with state taxes, many states will be well over 50%.
California: 59%
New Jersey: 55.3%
Oregon: 54.5%
Minnesota: 54.4%
New York: 53.4%
Included in the biden proposal is a 25% tax on unrealized gains.
OBSERVATION - Some harris spinmeisters are trying to claim harris hasn’t endorsed the unrealized gains tax - but in her clear endorsement of biden’s plan, such a tax is part and parcel. Little wonder key democrat leaders want to keep the democrat policy plans under wraps until after the election.
***
The Democratic National Convention (DNC) published guidance that urges food vendors to serve plant-based options or “lower-emission” meat.
The DNC’s sustainability guidance for food vendors serving customers at the convention in Chicago suggests that they should “offer low-emission menu choices,” including plant-based options, and “prioritize” chicken where possible because of its lower carbon intensity. Environmental activists and institutions like the United Nations have consistently asserted that reforming agricultural practices and decreasing red meat consumption are key to bringing down emissions and fighting climate change.
Additionally, the DNC is recommending the purchase of “renewable energy certificates,” or credits, to “measure and mitigate the impact of the energy used to heat, cool, and power venues and hotels.” (i.e. carbon credits)
OBSERVATION - Where’s the beef! Nah, let them eat bugs
Biden / Harris Watch –
Lots of rumors that biden may slip in a payback for his treatment by democrats and of late by harris.
Illegal Immigration –
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced the start of President Biden’s “parole in place” program for illegal immigrant spouses and step-children of U.S. citizens, which will allow about 500,000 illegal immigrants to apply for permanent residency beginning this week.
***
According to the Inspector General for the Department of Homeland Security, the number appears to be over 300,000 unaccompanied children who have disappeared into the United States, although there is some uncertainty because ICE and other agencies in the federal government apparently don’t communicate on such matters.
OBSERVATION - This is a crisis of major magnitude. Of late, child trafficking has grown to be a major crime profit center, and the US govt is potentially the largest child trafficker in the world.
Russia -
*****
Russian Foreign Ministry: We warn of Latvia’s growing involvement in the armed conflict in Ukraine
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russians have been left baffled after President Vladimir Putin deployed his so-called “space troops” to defend the Kursk region due to a manpower shortage amid a Ukrainian incursion.
The deployment of temporary motorized rifle of Russia’s Aerospace Forces to the Kursk region was first reported by independent investigative Russian outlet Important Stories.
The unit, created between May and June, consists of personnel from security and logistics companies, engineers, mechanics, some officers, and servicemen from a Russian spaceport. There are also personnel from special warehouses of the Aerospace Forces and radar stations in Russia’s Voronezh region, who were previously in charge of manning Russia’s nuclear deterrent, the publication reported, citing a source familiar with the matter.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian sources are saying 5 UAVs were shot down overnight over Russian territory, the Defense Ministry said: 11 UAVs were destroyed over Moscow Oblast, another 23 UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, 6 UAVs were destroyed over Belgorod Oblast, 3 over Kaluga Oblast, and 2 over Kursk Oblast, - the ministry said.
A scattering of Russian drones hit targets in western Ukraine.
Reports that Russia has made more small advances in the Donbas region.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Ukraine still holding to very tight OPSEC. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.
***
There are estimates that Ukraine has trapped as many as 3000 Russian soldiers west of the Sejm River as a result of its assaults on bridges in the region.
Ukrainian Armed Forces control 1263 square kilometers in the Kursk region, — commander-in-chief Syrskyi. “The Russians are conducting a maneuverable defense, trying to prevent further advance”, - he added
NOTE - this is more territory than Russia has seized all year to date.
Outlook —
Action in Kursk seem to be stabilizing out, with the exception that Ukraine may launch a flank attack on Russian forces trapped west of the Sejm River.
Ukraine is long overdue in dealing with the Russian push in the Donbas region. The offensive into Kursk has helped some in stripping away reinforcements but seems to have left Ukraine short handed on the defense of this sector that Russia continues to prioritize.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to target ammo depots deep in Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Iran’s IRGC spokesperson says the ‘waiting period for Iran’s retaliation’ against Israel could be long according to Reuters.
RUMINT - Iran stalls retaliation until US troops leave region
***
Blinkin is urging Israel to accept the current Gaza ceasefire initiative as soon as possible even though is has little chance of being accepted (currently rejected ) by hamas.
***
Hamas has sent threatening phone calls and messages to relatives of Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity, according to a report on Tuesday by N12.
The messages included warnings such as: “If you don’t fight the government, you won’t see your loved ones return.”
According to the report, the terror group sent ransom requests, claiming that without payment, the hostage families wouldn’t receive information about their loved ones.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army is calling on Palestinians in a small section of the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in central Gaza’s Deir al-Balah to evacuate.
Dozens of gunmen were killed amid Israeli army operations in Gaza, as some 30 targets were struck by the Israeli Air Force across the Strip in the past day, the military says in a morning update
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese security source: Fatah Brigadier General Khalil al-Maqdah was assassinated in an Israeli raid on Sidon, southern Lebanon
A new wave of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah weapons depots and a compound that was used by Hezbollah’s Aerial Defense system in the Beqaa valley of Lebanon roughly 100km north of the border with Israel.
In response to those attacks, a barrage of 40-50 rockets was fired from Lebanon at the northern city of Katzrin in the Golan Heights a short while ago, according to the Israeli army. Some of the rockets were intercepted by air defense, although several impacted the city. The Magen David Adom ambulance service says it is treating a man in his 30s who was lightly wounded.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel security forces active throughout the west bank overnight.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel finding and eliminating more terror cells trying to regroup in Gaza.
Hezbollah losing more senior leaders and large ammo depots.
Some see Iran’s statement on a long wait for retaliation linked to an effort to wait out the presence of US (and likely other) forces in the region. The combined air power alone of US and allied nations pretty effectively neutralized the Iranian drone and cruise missile components of their April attack. The RUMINT is that they have their units ready to fire once the US and others stand down - in an effort to increase the possibility of the drone/cruise missile component having greater success. This could stretch out for months.
This puts Hezbollah into a deeper problem. If they launch their retaliatory attacks sooner rather than later, they risk having to face Israel alone and having those foreign military assets turn on them. If they delay along with Iran, they will continue to see their military stockpiles reduced and their senior leadership continued to be eliminated.
IAF strikes have typically resulted in Hezbollah launching large salvos of rockets, latest being in the 40-50 rocket range. What I don’t think they realize is that this provides Israel ample opportunity to locate and analyze those launch sites and to track which ammo dump supplied the munitions. This in turn caused both to be targeted and eliminated by Israel, thus permitting Israel to eliminate much of the rocket threat one bite at a time.
Bottom line is Hezbollah maintains the capability to launch a massive attack on Israel at any time. Iran is maintain the capability to launch an April sized or larger attack but appears to be a few preparation steps short of launch readiness. It is still the estimate that the attack will be a 1 - 2 punch with Hezbollah launching a massive rocket strike which will cover some of Iran’s final preparations and launch of its phase of the attack.
Iran –
Yesterday in the city of Qazvin (north of Tehran): riots ensued after a woman was arrested on the grounds that she did not cover her head sufficiently. The crowds managed to rescue the woman and beat the policemen chanting “Death to the dictator”.
OBSERVATION - The last round of unrest was also based on the religious police killing women for being uncovered.
Black Swans -
Gulf hurricane season has been pretty sluggish following predictions that the end of El Nino would permit hurricane formation and an extensive round of storms. The next couple of months are going to be make or break for the development of severe hurricane and impacts to the gulf and east coast.
Thanks for your information and opinion Godzilla. BUMP
“It also raises the probability that the ‘soft landing’ the fed and treasury dept have been preaching is about to hit rock bottom in a nasty way.”
I have been stashing cash like a madwoman and Beau has been taking extra pasture mowing jobs this spring/summer to stash some cash, too. Nether of us are buying anything other than the everyday basics. Wait - I DID get a nice pair of earrings for my birthday. A once a year ‘investment.’ ;)
That said a friend and I had lunch the other day at a VERY popular local BBQ place. Food is good but service was slower than slow - and this was a Wednesday, not even a weekend. The servers were all hustling, handling MORE tables than was probably normal - a result of the owner cutting payroll and a lack of willing workers is my guess?
Then, we did some shopping downtown and every shop was pretty empty save for us, and the clerks we talked to said business. is. s.l.o.w. Said friend’s daughter owns a gift shop and while things are slower for her in the shop, she is busier than ever on-line. Which relates to an article I read just this morning on 321 Gold: brick and mortar stores are suffering; e-commerce is booming.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
The National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (NCCoE) has signed a collaborative research and development agreement (CRADA) with 15 technology providers and industry experts to collaborate on the first use case under the Mobile Driver’s License (mDL) project. The project will start with a focus on implementing mDLs in financial services to meet customer identification program requirements.
Collaborators will work with the NCCoE to accelerate the adoption of digital identity standards and best practices by producing reference architectures, representative workflows, and implementation guides to address real-world cybersecurity, privacy, and usability challenges faced by adoption of mDL in the financial sector.
OBSERVATION - Digital ID with biometrical standards is one of the big goals of the WEF et al. Movement towards such a goal is present at all different levels and nations. This one strikes at a key goal - eventual control of individual access to their funds.
RELATED - The Biden administration is laying the groundwork for wider acceptance of digital identifications, like driver’s licenses you can show on your smartphone — a push that could fundamentally reshape how citizens access everything from public benefits to pornography online.
A draft of a forthcoming executive order viewed by NOTUS pushes federal and state governments to speed adoption of smartphone-based mobile driver’s license and ID options more widely, stating: “It is the policy of the executive branch to strongly encourage the use of digital identity documents.”
Such documents could be submitted digitally and, in combination with biometric scans like facial recognition, could help better verify identity online.
https://www.notus.org/technology/digital-drivers-licenses-biden-supercharge-transition
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Pro-hamas protests are losing steam as they have not garnered the numbers or passion to challenge the police presence
***
Back in the news, Crooks, a 20 year kid in Pennsylvania shooting guns at the same gun range used by DHS agents had an encrypted messaging account in Belgium, where NATO is headquartered. Trump shooter Thomas Crooks also had encrypted messaging accounts in Germany, and New Zealand. The existence of overseas encrypted accounts were know, this is my first notice of the countries of origin.
***
The harris campaign finally released the platform Monday night, including its gun control plans called “Protecting Communities & Tackling the Scourge of Gun Violence.”
According to the platform, the Democrats want:
- Universal background checks.
- “Assault weapon” and standard-capacity magazine bans
- Mandatory safe-storage laws
- Repeal of the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act
- Increased red-flag laws
- Increased funding for the ATF
- Increased funding for the FBI, to conduct more background checks
- Increased funding for the CDC, “because the gun violence epidemic is a public health crisis.”
https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/the-harris-walz-game-plan-for-attacking-the-second-amendment/
OBSERVATION - This is just the tip of the iceberg on this aspect of the democrat’s intended assault on the Constitution. harris is already on record saying she’ll issue an EO banning AR-15 style weapons and begin immediate confiscation. The 2d protects the other amendments and such gross attack will suffer serious pushback as already many of the goals have been tried in court and rendered unconstitutional.
The level of danger to Americans is if the democrats take congress and the WH.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Yesterdays 818,000 downward revision in jobs have caused a number of economists to look closely at the unemployment numbers which in part are associated with the number of jobs. Some initial estimations suggest that unemployment is exceeding 5% and could be as high as 7%. These numbers would be more in line with the subjective feelings of the population. The big question is will the ‘corrected’ numbers be released before the elections?
***
Yesterday’s announcement that revised down 818,000 jobs from what had been reported is being seen as potentially driving the Fed to drop rates at even a greater rate than originally expected. A quarter point was expected now a larger drop is anticipated.
The potential for shockwaves is high. High stock prices and high everything else prices may skyrocket as a lowered rate sends a flash flood of money into the system.
***
US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. Harris-Biden Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo says she doesn’t believe new government data that shows almost a million of the jobs the Harris-Biden admin claimed to have “created” don’t actually exist.
“I’m not familiar with that.” She tried to call the US government’s official jobs data a Donald Trump lie.
***
The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference said it will begin a work strike Thursday morning after the Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) railway announced worker lockouts to begin Thursday morning.
OBSERVATION - Concerns are that this will impact supply lines to the US causing shortages if the strike is prolonged.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft carrier has entered CENTCOM’s AOR in the Middle East. It is currently located in the Indian Ocean still enroute to a station closer to the Gulf region.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
DNC convention all week
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
This Friday, it is being rumored that Kennedy will drop out of the race and cast his support to trump.
According to Charlie Kirk on “X”- “RFK Jr.’s VP, Nicole Shanahan, says their campaign is considering joining forces with Trump to prevent a Harris/Walz administration.
RFK endorsing Trump is the natural move. They both are sworn enemies of the CIA, FBI, and the military machine.”
Statisticians and pollsters are still crunching the numbers (and arguing over what they mean), but most evidence indicates that RFK Jr. leaving the race would benefit Donald Trump.
The value of a potential RFK Jr. endorsement is that it’s deadweight on the Democrats’ post-convention momentum. He saps their rocket fuel. Next week, instead of everyone talking about the DNC and how beautiful/intelligent/Obama-y Harris was, people will be talking, at least in part, about RFK Jr.’s endorsement.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden has essentially dropped off the radar screen since his midnight address at the DNC convention.
Illegal Immigration –
Monitoring reports that violent central american gangs are taking over apartment complexes in Aurora CO. Local govt claims that is not the case, but locals say otherwise.
Japan –
Japan reaffirms to Taiwan that they will help defend against any Chinese attempts at taking over the island.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Analysts are indicating that Russia is diverting largely untrained conscripts to the Kursk fight and not the the Donbas effort.
Unconfirmed reports are that putin is attempting to use conscripts in the effort in order to avoid a broader call-up of forces, which in turn will expose him to criticism over how the war has been fought.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Mezheve village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Ukrainian Air Forces: 2 of 10 Shahed drones were shot down overnight, most of the drones have attacked positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces in Kharkiv region
On the night of August 22, air defense systems repelled attacks over six regions, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. Over the Volgograd Region, 13 aircraft-type drones were shot down and intercepted, over the Rostov Region - 7, over the Belgorod Region - 4, over the Voronezh Region - 2, over the Bryansk Region and the Kursk Region - one each.
Explosions were reported at Marinovka airfield in Volgograd region of Russia
The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv assesses that during the next several days and through the weekend there is an increased risk of both nighttime and daytime Russian drone and missile attacks throughout Ukraine in connection with Ukraine’s Independence Day on August 24.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Governor of Bryansk region says FSB and Russian army foiled an attempt of Ukrainian scout group to enter Klimovo district of Bransk region
Due to large logistical problems with train lines in the Kursk region Russian forces are being forced to drive logistical convoys down the M-4 highway from Rostov to Voronezh to Kursk. This is setting them up to face the maelstrom of drone and HIMAR strikes.
All attempts by Russian forces to establish pontoon bridges over the Seym river are being thwarted, sometimes even before they have time to even built them. They are targets in a shooting gallery from drones and HIMARS.
Outlook —
Ukraine’s drone attacks overnight have been the largest in many months. Moscow proper was targeted by about a dozen of them. Bringing the war to the Russians. Apparently, Russia was able to shoot them down, having been given time to prepare their defenses.
Observations on the upcoming Aug 25 anniversary of the independence of Ukraine is a likely reason for the limited Russian missile assaults of late. They have been taking the time to build up their supplies for a massive strike or series of strikes.
The activity in Bransk, suggests that Ukraine is continuing to actively probe Russian border defenses for signs of more weakness. This probe is near the Belarus border and if Ukraine were to exploit it the Russian elements essentially trapped west of the Seym river could find themselves in even a more precarious position.
The Kursk offensive still has putin in a bad place, trying to keep information limited to the general public and diverting resources to stop the advances.
Belarus -
Belarus is drawing more and more troops, air defense forces and aircraft to the border with Ukraine, — Associated Press
OBSERVATION - Analysts do not believe this to be a precursor to Belarus entering the fight but is probably driven by Russian concerns over the fight in Kursk.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Sinwar wants a guarantee that he will not be assassinated.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Sinwar, who once claimed that it would be an honor to die fighting Israel, has made his own survival a condition of any ceasefire in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
In southern Gaza’s Rafah area, Israeli troops eliminated 50+ terrorists and dismantled significant terrorist infrastructure.
In Gaza City, Israel’s air force struck a weapons facility next to a Hamas command-and-control center located inside a former Gaza school.
In Khan Yunis and Deir al-Balah, troops killed numerous terrorists, destroyed dozens of terror sites, and located rockets to be fired at Israel.
***
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared on Wednesday during a visit to the Gaza-Egypt border that the IDF has achieved victory over Hamas’s Rafah brigade.
“I came here first and foremost to express my appreciation [to the soldiers]. The Rafah brigade was defeated by the IDF’s Division 162,” Gallant said at the Philadelphi Corridor, the 8.7-mile-long buffer zone captured by Israeli forces in May.
Since taking control of the area, the IDF has located and destroyed 150 terror tunnels, and Gallant instructed the forces to finish the destruction of the remaining tunnels, which Hamas used to smuggle weapons and materials from Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula into the Gaza Strip.
“Out of the 150 tunnels that were destroyed, around 100 tunnels are in fact trenches dug using engineering tools above ground and then covered with a meter or two of dirt,” the minister said.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-45/
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Last night, the IDF launched a widespread attack campaign on southern Lebanon, targeting and obliterating over ten locations, including Hezbollah weapon storage facilities.
This is believed to be the most widespread attack on southern Lebanon since the start of the war.
Some analysts are wondering if these strikes mark the beginning of a new escalation or preemptive strike.
China is telling its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.
——— FORECAST ————————-
I’ve been noting for some time now how Israel is preparing the battlefield for the eventual main event against Hezbollah. They have been doing this via targeted strikes against senior leadership and taking out critical logistical and command facilities. The airstrikes overnight have been characterized as the largest since Oct 7 and mark a significant increase in tempo. These strikes hit numerous ammo supply locations. Over the past few days, Hezbollah has lost a lot of ammo dumps. This will deny them the ability to re-arm during the conflict. I don’t have the numbers in front of me - the Mossads probably does - as to just what % of Hezbollah stockpiles have been reduced.
Remember, Hezbollah has been preparing since at least 2008 for the big one against Israel and it is unlikely they have all their eggs in a few baskets. 150,000 rockets are probably squirreled across much of Lebanon, many in underground bunkers.
But the intensity and specificity of Israeli airstrikes suggest that Israel has gotten good intel and the motivation to take these locations out, and as videos of the strikes posted on social media indicate - they have hit some big ammo dumps.
I think that one of the analysts commentary I’ve read suggesting these strikes are preemptive may be pretty close to on target (no pun intended). However, remembering other intelligence evaluations, the clock is ticking towards Israel launching on Hezbollah in the very near future. In this case, Israel is not waiting for the delayed Iran/Hezbollah attack, but pressing forward in spite of that threat. Now in the last half of August, the window for Israel’s move on Hezbollah grows closer and indicators are becoming red across the board.
Key indicators to watch for are increased ground force movement to the north along with further intensifying air and artillery strikes. IMHO, Israel has the elements in place for a nominal ground assault into Lebanon but is building up a larger force in order to have better operational reserves.
Iran –
(ISW). An unspecified Iranian official claimed that there is an ongoing “high-level debate” within Iran over the continued utility of the supreme leader’s 2003 fatwa against nuclear weapons. This debate is consistent with previous statements from Iranian officials that normalized discussions about Iran’s ability to procure nuclear weapons. There are some indications that Iran is setting conditions to be able to quickly move towards a weapon, should it choose to do so.
The Iranian UN mission likely published this statement to generate psychological and informational effects, rather than to signal Iran’s serious intention to conduct a ground attack into Israel imminently.
***
The Islamic regime in Iran is trying to assassinate former President Donald Trump, with hopes of doing so by Nov. 5, Election Day.
Multiple governmental sources associated with U.S. allies across the Mideast have informed me of the danger.
In the assessments of several governments, the Iranian regime has made clear it wants to rid itself of Trump — and it believes it must do so by Election Day.
The ayatollahs’ mortal animus against Trump is not a secret.
After Trump ordered a Baghdad drone missile strike in January 2020 that successfully killed Qassem Soleimani, head of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), Tehran vowed bloody revenge.
Soleimani was a revered figure within the regime’s base of supporters, second only in power to Ayatollah Khamanei.
Now, with the U.S. election race close, the power figures believe Iran’s growing status as a regional Mideast powerhouse will be at serious risk if the former president returns to the White House.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/iran-trump-election-day/2024/08/21/id/1177404/
Venezuela -
Anti-Maduro elements have completely lost the initiative and are facing progressive persecution and arrest.