Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Bill Gates has launched a food-like product that’s supposedly similar to real milk, but made out of maggots. His goal is to introduce this product into the food supply.
The new “EntoMilk” is described as a “dairy alternative” that is made from “black soldier fly larvae” or maggots. The maggots are blended into a “rich and creamy liquid which looks and acts just like dairy,” according to its creators.
OBSERVATION - Stomach turning to say the least, as this point man of evil continues in his efforts to reinvent the food system. You can sure as anything bet HE wouldn’t be consuming any of his bug products.
***
Speaking at the WEF’s ‘Annual Meeting of the New Champions’, often dubbed the “Summer Davos,” in China, Schwab stated that in order to drive the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” forward, elites must aggressively drive their agenda home.
“To drive future economic growth we must embrace innovation and force the collaboration across sectors, regions, nations, and cultures to create a more peaceful, inclusive, sustainable, and resilient future,” Schwab proclaimed.
He added, “At this critical juncture the active participation of all stakeholders is essential to ensure a sustainable development path.”
OBSERVATION - WEF and affiliated globalist govts have been facing considerable push back following the wuhan induced lockdowns and economic nonsense of the past four years. It seems that the emphasis is shifting to a more forceful attempt to quell the masses is in the works.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
One week out from the RNC convention, leftists on social media working to coordinate actions to disrupt the event as much as possible. Developing.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Navy testing modified SM-6 missiles in an air launched configuration using F-18s for the platform. Move will expand the potential capabilities of the missile system.
***
American troops departed Niger’s main airbase in coordination with the Nigerian Defense Ministry, partially fulfilling Niger’s new junta’s orders from last year. The next phase, in August, will see the U.S. withdraw from a drone base used for counterterrorism missions in Africa. (FO)
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Congress does not appear on track to pass 12 annual spending bills by the Sept. 30 deadline. As of July 6, the House had passed four appropriations bills for the next fiscal year, which fund the Department of Defense, State Department, Department of Homeland Security, and Department of Veterans Affairs.
Both houses of Congress are scheduled to be in session for only 30 days before the deadline.
OBSERVATION - With the election frenzy in full swing, the likelihood of congress doing its job drifts further and further away. There will be maneuvering of titanic proportions as each party tries to pin the failure on the other. Most likely some sort of continuing resolution will eventually be passed.
***
It seems House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries efforts at quelling the push by dem lawmakers to stop promoting biden from stepping aside has failed to produce any fruit. Among the most vocal in demanding biden step down reportedly were Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), Mark Takano (D-Calif.) and Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), according to two people familiar with the private session.
Rumors are that most of the participants reinforced their call for biden to step down and that there was a lukewarm reception of harris to take his place.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Visitor logs obtained by the New York Post reveal that President Joe Biden’s primary physician repeatedly consulted with a Parkinson’s disease specialist at the White House.
According to the Parkinson’s Foundation, Parkinson’s disease is “a chronic neurologic condition” that “causes a gradual loss of the nerve cells in the brain that produce the neurotransmitter dopamine,” and can cause “decreased facial expression, soft speech, and difficulty swallowing.” Eventually “postural instability develops, resulting in a slow, imbalanced shuffling gait, which can result in falls.”
Does this sound familiar to anyone?
Dr. Kevin Cannard, a Parkinson’s disease expert at Walter Reed Medical Center, met with Dr. Kevin O’Connor, and two others at the White House residence clinic on Jan. 17, according to the records, which emerge as questions continue to swirl about the 81-year-old president’s mental health in the wake of his debate debacle last week with former President Trump.
Cannard is an authority on Parkinson’s who has worked at Walter Reed for nearly 20 years.
Since 2012, he has served as the “neurology specialist supporting the White House Medical Unit,” according to his LinkedIn.
OBSERVATION - Transparency will only come out once biden is out of the WH. The coverup far exceeds the coverup from the Watergate scandal.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of April 20, 2024
(FO) In a new report released on 7 July, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), National Security Agency (NSA), and FBI said they confirmed that People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-sponsored hackers had compromised the networks of multiple critical infrastructure operators.
According to the joint report, the agencies confirmed that China-linked hackers conducted network reconnaissance and exfiltrated data intended to cause physical disruptions to critical infrastructure operational technology.
Illegal Immigration –
Roughly 99 percent of illegal aliens and border crossers are living freely across the United States as President Joe Biden’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) monitors fewer than 1.5 percent of the nation’s illegal population, a report states.
The federal data, compiled by the National Immigration Center for Enforcement (NICE) and circulated by several House and Senate Republicans, looks at the overall illegal population living in American communities — estimated at nearly 17 million today.
OBSERVATION - I’m speaking to the choir here, but American cannot sustain that level of social welfare burden on top of the enormous costs just towards the citizenry. Crime of all kinds is increasing - in spite of the regime’s numbers games and non-reporting. Parts of major cities have been turned into third world level hell holes and the tsunami continues.
China –
Reports coming out of China indicate Xi as replaced more military leaders. Sources say Xi is trying to get a military leadership team that is ideologically respondent to him before going all out and attempting to capture Taiwan. Loyalty first demands may compromise technical and tactical proficiency.
Japan –
Japan and the Philippines signed their Reciprocal Access Agreement this morning, allowing them to train and potentially station troops in each others’ territories. The Agreement is explicitly to counter China’s aggression in the South China Sea/ West Philippine Sea.
Russia -
Logistics –
Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces in kherson area are facing a serious water shortage. Trucks carrying water have been under intense attack by Ukraine drones.
***
The Russian government plans to build a network of barrage balloons, called the “Barrier” protection system, to repel Ukrainian long-range drone strikes, The Telegraph reported on July 6.
Ukrainian forces regularly conduct drone strikes and sabotage acts on Russian territory, targeting military bases, oil refineries, and industrial facilities, the profits of which fuel Moscow’s war efforts.
A Russian aerospace firm, First Airship, has developed a ballon prototype and started testing it, according to The Telegraph.
OBSERVATION - Old school solution to a new school problem.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Investigators determined Kh-101 missile hit Okhatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv. Death toll currently at 15 killed, 37 wounded. Multiple other civilian apartment buildings were also hit.
Russian missiles also hit three DTEK transformer substations in Holosiyivskyi and Shevchenkovskyi districts of Kyiv. Electricity grids were also damaged
A Russian missile strikes were also reported in Kostiantynivka, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro city, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk
Outlook —
Russia’s missile attacks clearly targeted civilian facilities and not military targets. UN silent on these actions. Part of the continuing effort of Russia to demoralize Ukraine. These attacks overnight were supported in part by airlaunched cruise missiles. This action may bring more pressure on biden to release limitations on the uses of ATACMS to strike Russia airfields.
Ukraine drone attacks have benefitted from the focused elimination of Russian ADA elements and the very thin coverage the remaining units can support. As noted above, Russia is now looking at deploying barrage balloons to foil the drones. This could be a low cost answer
Europe / NATO General –
A week ago, the National Rally, a “far right” anti-mass third world immigration party, got the most votes in the first round of France’s two-step voting for the National Assembly. There was hope in some quarters that the Rally could win an absolute majority in today’s second round of balloting, and form a government.
But it was not to be. President Macron and his party joined with leftist parties (including socialists and Communists) to frustrate the “far right.” Whichever of those groups had finished third in a given district withdrew, so they could consolidate their forces against the Rally. And fear of a conservative victory drove the highest turnout since 1981.
The result is that the far left is now in the driver’s seat. Exit polling indicates that a coalition of left-wing parties will win somewhere between 172 and 192 seats in the Assembly, Macron’s party 150 to 170, and the National Rally 132 to 152. There are some seats left over for unaffiliated parties.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/07/bad-news-from-france.php
Following the election, Antifa and affiliated leftist elements broke onto the streets for a night of rioting in ‘celebration’ of the Macron’s come from behind victory in the national elections.
OBSERVATION - France has now received a harder kick to the left, resulting in greater migrant influx and affiliated crime, just for starters.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- New strike operation in Gaza
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Head of Israeli Shin Bet will head today a delegation to Cairo for the hostage deal talks
Netanyahu - any agreement with Hamas must stipulate that fighting will continue until our objectives have been met. In addition, any agreement must prevent the smuggling of weapons from Egypt to Gaza
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army confirms launching a new operation in Gaza City’s Tel al-Hawa neighborhood overnight, following intelligence of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad infrastructure and terror operatives in the area.
In a statement, the military says it is also operating at UNRWA’s headquarters in the area, where the Israeli army previously found significant Hamas tunnel infrastructure, and killed and captured numerous gunmen. The Israeli army says it has intelligence of new Hamas and Islamic Jihad activity and infrastructure in Gaza City, including weapon caches and detention and interrogations rooms used by the terror groups.
At the start of the operation, the Israeli army says it warned civilians, adding that it will open up a humanitarian corridor for Palestinians to leave the area.”The Israeli army will continue to act in accordance with international law and against the Hamas and PIJ terror organizations, who systematically operate and carry out terrorist activity from inside civilian infrastructure, including UNRWA compounds, which are used by them to plan and carry out terror activity against the State of Israel,” the military adds.Palestinian media report that Israeli ground forces advanced into Gaza City’s Tel al-Hawa neighborhood overnight, following a large wave of airstrikes. The Israeli army at around 1 a.m. said it was carrying out airstrikes in the central Gaza Strip.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Tehran considers support for Lebanon a principle and will come at the appropriate time
The Israeli army announced that fighters targeted Hezbollah positions in five locations in southern Lebanon, including an arms depot.
Israeli army: Overnight, the IAF struck a Hezbollah military site in the area of Jabal Tourah in Lebanese territory. Simultaneously, the IAF also struck a Hezbollah weapons storage facility in the area of Qabrikha, a military structure in the area of Tallouseh
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli Forces arrested at least 30 Palestinians from the West Bank overnight.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egyptian Foreign Minister: An immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the immediate deployment of more aid are the priority of this stage
——— FORECAST ————————-
Overall situation on the ground is largely unchanged, except that Israel has let Hamas regroup into UNRWA facilities (thinking they are safe) and are in the process of eliminating them wholesale. This has been made easier by the heavy losses to Hamas leadership - up and down the chain.
Renewed talks on hostage release has a lot of global eyes on it. Again, it appears that the leverage Hamas thought it had holding hostages has quickly diminished and Netanyahu is not giving them any quarter. As I see it, Hamas is not getting the favorable press it had in the past - due to its lack of genuine offers and rejections of previous plans. I don’t expect any breakthroughs any time soon. Hamas will demand a cease fire and withdrawal before any releases and Israel will continue to press Hamas’ destruction.
Iran –
The Iranian warship Sahand has mysteriously capsized at the port of Bandar Abbas, according to ISNA reports. Iran’s most advanced naval ship that was commissioned in 2018.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane Beryl made landfall between Houston and Corpus Christi, TX, this morning as a Category 1 hurricane. Tornado and flash flood warnings now promulgating along its expected track towards the northeast. Keep safe out there.
Hacked?
No, some claim it bumped another vessel.
Thanks Godzilla. WEF - World Eugenics Forum. Bill Gates: King of World Eugenics.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Multiple protest groups have expressed frustration that their protest permits are not being approved by the city of Milwaukee, but activists have not been deterred and I don’t believe it will significantly limit protest turnout. Activists have made some incendiary statements over the past week that protest groups will attempt to protest directly outside Fiserv Forum, which means they could attempt to breach the security cordon. (FO)
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
The Interior Department last Friday blocked 28 million acres of federal land in the state of Alaska from any mining or oil and gas development.
Rick Whitbeck, Alaska state director for Power The Future, said the decision on D-1 lands removes an area the size of the state of Pennsylvania from resource development, which will have severe energy impact to the nation and the state of Alaska.
“Today’s double-whammy attack on Alaska’s resource development opportunities makes 65 times the Biden administration has targeted our state’s energy and economic future. This administration has completely kowtowed to radical environmentalists in an effort to gain favor at the ballot box. Placing 28 million acres off-limits to responsible development is foolhardy, and only empowers China, Russia and other enemies of our Republic,” Whitbeck told Just the News.
In a separate decision, the department also blocked a 211-mile gravel road that would have connected mining districts in west-central Alaska to a highway that runs through the middle of the state. The mines are rich in copper and cobalt needed for the so-called green energy transition.
OBSERVATION - The resource war against Alaska (and the rest of the country) by the regime continues. As noted, this cut off critical resourced necessary for the green energy ‘transition’. As it is, for copper alone, GLOBALLY there is a massive production shortfall when assessing the demands for copper to facilitate the electrification of vehicles, batteries and infrastructure.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Defense Department announced that the Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program is “several years” behind schedule and 81% over budget. Defense assures the U.S. that “the U.S. nuclear arsenal remains safe, secure, and effective” despite “operating beyond their original design life.”
OBSERVATION - Typical govt waste in the procurement / development arena.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
An “International Bird Flu Summit” will be held in Washington D.C. from October 2nd to October 4th, and according to the official brochure for the event they will be discussing “a highly virulent strain of bird flu affecting both cattle and humans”…
On the list of topics for this summit, the very first one is “mass fatality management planning”…
OBSERVATION - Fear mongering by both the globalists as well as the author of the article - Michael Snyder. If he’d turn the hyperbole down a notch the reality of the planning would be more clear. The bird flu pandemic scare may well come to fruition in the next year, given the jabbers are concocting a new ‘vaccine’ for it and other political players are positioning to reimpose controls a la wuhan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The US is hosting 3 days worth of NATO talks this week as biden attempts to reverse the global opinion that he is mentally unfit for duty. Any continued mental ‘lapses’ this week will spill over into the national debate over his qualifications for president and reignite debate over his continued performance as the democrat nominee for president.
***
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is spearheading legislation to classify former President Donald Trump’s actions during the Jan. 6 riot as unofficial, following the recent Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity, the Washington Examiner reported.
“We Democrats will not let the Supreme Court’s decision stand unaddressed. The Constitution makes plain that Congress has the authority to check the judiciary through appropriate legislation,” Schumer said on the Senate floor.
“I will work with my colleagues on legislation classifying Trump’s election subversion acts as unofficial acts not subject to immunity.”
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/chuck-schumer-donald-trump-presidential/2024/07/08/id/1171689/
OBSERVATION - This legislation will not get far, as campaigning and other squirrels will keep congress critters busy in the remaining 30 congressional work days of the FY.
Biden / Harris Watch –
John Kirby and KJP in their press conferences said biden will have a ‘big boy press conference’ this week.
OBSERVATION - “big boy” press conference ??! What higher level of dumpster fire this way comes?
***
biden challenged Democrats who wish to oust him from his party’s nomination on MSNBC’s Morning Joe on Monday, saying: “Any of these guys that don’t think I should run, run against me. Announce for president. Challenge me at the convention.”
Biden made the remark as part of a fiery call-in to the program, shortly after he released a letter firmly stating he will not drop out of the presidential race, and mocked those who challenged him previously.
OBSERVATION - biden better worry about getting what he’s wishing for on this one. His post debate aggressive campaign to demonstrate his mental fitness for office hasn’t been going as well as i think his handlers have hoped. Rebellion among democrats in congress and democrat governors continue with calls for him to step aside. Now the impending ‘big boy’ press conference setting himself up for more sound bite face plants. A floor fight during the DNC is one of the leading options for democrats seeing the need to have him step aside in order to mitigate an electoral disaster in Nov.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden admin just came out against a law which would require proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections
he House is set to vote next week on the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or SAVE Act, which would require ‘documentary proof of United States citizenship’ to vote in federal elections.
- That could include a passport, a photo ID card that proves a voter was born in the U.S. or another form of photo ID along with supporting documentation such as a birth certificate, the bill says.
- The legislation would require non-citizens to be removed from voter registration rolls, require election officials to ask voter registration applicants for proof of citizenship and open them up to legal consequences if they do not.
OBSERVATION - What can one say anymore. The regime and the left are bound and determined to use the flood of illegals into the country as a vehicle to swing elections for decades to come.
Japan –
On July 4, 2024, Japan’s Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA) publicly released footage for the first time of the test launch of a domestically build long range Hyper-Velocity Gliding Projectile (HVGP) for island defense conducted in March this year.
The HVGP is a new weapon scheduled to be deployed by the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) starting in the fiscal year 2026. The hypersonic weapon is being developed for “island defense” roles. After being launched by a booster from a truck-mounted launcher, the warhead separates and glides to attack its target. The estimated range is approximately 900 km.
Research and development on the HVGP began in the fiscal year 2018, with the goal of completing development by the fiscal year 2025. However, due to the increasing military threats from China and North Korea, early mass production started in the fiscal year 2023 without waiting for the completion of development. The manufacturing is being handled by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI).
OBSERVATION - The majority of the declared hypersonic warheads are of the ‘gliding’ variety, adjusting their flight path as it glides towards its target. This is different from many of the warheads the US and others are developing where the warhead maneuvers under power (ram jet or similar) to its target.
Japan is still a technological powerhouse and the demonstrated capability to go from ground zero to a production warhead in just 6 years is impressive. This is also why many think that should Japan see the need, they could become a nuclear power in a very short period of time.
Russia -
*****
Initial footage indicates that a Russian missile struck a children’s hospital in Kyiv, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said.
Danielle Bell, who heads the mission, said the footage shows a “missile launched by the Russian Federation... directly impacting the hospital.”
Images of the cruise missile taken seconds before impact clearly show the profile of a Russian KH-101 missile, fully intact and undamaged by air defense. It struck exactly where it was aimed.
Some are saying that Putin is daring NATO in the light of the meetings this week in DC.
A special UN security council meeting is scheduled to hear Ukraine’s complaint of Russia deliberately targeting a child’s cancer hospital as well as other clearly civilian targets in Kyiv.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
biden has said Washington will help strengthen Ukrainian air defense after Russian air strikes on several cities left dozens dead. The US president’s comments come ahead of a three-day NATO summit due to kick off in Washington on Tuesday.
Ukraine reportedly launched a drone assault in retaliation for the Kyiv attack.
Fighting continues fierce on portions of the eastern front.
Outlook —
The top of the story that is growing for the moment is backlash against Russia for the children’s cancer hospital missile strike. There is no doubt in my mind that it was deliberately targeted for terror purposes. And the overall attack, where it seems that at least 6 other missiles got thru the Kyiv air defense network - was designed by putin to be an ‘in your face’ action towards the NATO meetings this week.
The US spokesman, John Kirby, made it clear yesterday that the attack has not changed US policy of the us of US weapons beyond 200 KM into Russia. European supporters of Ukraine may not follow Washington’s lead and permit freer use of their weapons.
Defensive operations are generally considered not to be the way a war is won, but in the case of this war, an exemption may be in order. Ukraine may not have the forces to launch a major, war winning offensive, but it clearly does have the capability to maintain a meat grinder for Russian forces capable of infliction massive losses in what is turning into a war of attrition. Russian losses continue to be substantial. Russia is losing as many soldiers every couple months in Ukraine as they did during the second Chechen war (1999 - 2008) based on estimated Russian losses to be in the 20,000 to 40,000 range.
Poland –
Poland & Ukraine have signed a 10-year security agreement:
- Includes a provision for Polish-Ukrainian cooperation to shoot down Russian missiles & drones in Ukraine’s airspace fired in Poland’s direction
- Poland will consider sending another 14 MiG-29 fighter jets
OBSERVATION - There may be some edging forward with a rejuvenated concept of a NATO declared no fly zone over Ukraine, and this agreement may be the camel’s nose to move that forward.
Europe / NATO General –
The surprise victory of the New Popular Front (NFP) in France’s elections has set alarm bells ringing for the nation’s wealthy as the hard-left alliance plans to roll out an eye-watering 90% income tax on high earners.
Even before the election took place, financial advisers reported a huge influx of enquiries off the back of Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election, with well-off French citizens considering a move to more fiscally favourable territories such as Italy, the historic tax haven of Switzerland, and Spain.
But the victory of the NFP over Macron’s centrists and the hard-right National Rally (RN) this Sunday has forced France’s elite to seriously consider how their fortunes would fare given the very real prospect of a dramatic tax-and-spend economic policy.
OBSERVATION - The leftist plague of locusts is now descending in force in France. This will eventually play into the great global reset plans as the French economy goes underwater in the upcoming few years.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- Intense fighting continues in the Gaza City area.
- Hostage negotiations continue.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Hamas warned that the latest raids and displacement in Gaza City could lead to the collapse of long-running negotiations over a cease-fire and hostage release, after the two sides had appeared to have narrowed the gaps in recent days.
***
Has Yahya Sinwar lost control of his Hamas brigades in Gaza? New reports in Israeli media suggest that the terrorist general has lost touch with his commanders in more ways than one. Leadership appears to have fractured over hostage-release discussions, as Hamas brigades face annihilation.
And Sinwar apparently can’t be found, according to diplomatic sources:
Several senior Hamas figures in Gaza have urged the terror group’s exiled political leadership to accept the ceasefire and hostage deal proposal championed by US President Joe Biden, according to internal communications seen by The Associated Press.
The messages, shared by a Middle East official familiar with the ongoing negotiations, described the heavy losses Hamas has suffered on the battlefield and the dire conditions in the war-ravaged territory. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to share the contents of internal Hamas communications.
The two messages are dated from May and June, before the IDF wrapped up taking control of Rafah and the smuggling lines that kept Hamas armed for war. In the last few days, the IDF has launched new operations in Gaza City and Shejaiyah. Reportedly, Hamas tried to reconstitute its forces in a UNRWA facility it previously used for cover, and the IDF has launched a significant offensive in its game of whack-a-mole:
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2024/07/08/hamas-mutiny-in-gaza-n3791513
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli forces advanced deeper into the Gaza Strip’s largest city in pursuit of militants who had regrouped there
IDF: Operational update from Shejaiya: - 150 militants killed - 6 terrorist tunnels destroyed - Booby-trapped buildings dismantled - Dozens of weapons and intelligence documents found. While examining the tunnels, a branched tunnel system was located. In some of the branches, terrorist hideouts and command and control centers were located. In one of the tunnels, weapons and intelligence documents were located
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
Lebanese media report an Israeli airstrike against a vehicle on the Beirut-Damascus highway, near a checkpoint between Lebanon and Syria
NOTE - Prepare for Hezbollah announcement the death of another key leader.
Israeli Channel 12: About 5 missiles were launched from Lebanon towards the Galilee Finger, and most of them were intercepted, without causing any casualties
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Explosions were heard in Latakia, northwestern Syria, in the early hours of Tuesday morning, leading to local reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting the city’s port, according to Saudi network al-Hadath.
Al-Hadath also reported that the Israeli raids on Latakia coincided with the arrival of two Iranian ships to the port of Latakia, and alleged that an air defense system belonging to Iranian militias was targeted on the coast of Baniyas.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues its wack a mole tactics in Gaza, allowing Hamas to regroup, then hammering them again, killing hundreds in the process. Lack of coordination by Hamas is making matters worse - it lacks the intelligence and fight back infrastructure to see the hit coming and they continue to try to use the failed tactics of hiding out in UN and other civilian facilities typically considered ‘off limits’. After 9 months, they should know Israel has no qualms about blowing up a UNRWA facility that they’ve taken refuge in.
There is growing evidence that Hamas is having serious command and control issues as well as morale and supply shortages. This has reportedly gotten worse following the initiation of the Rafah operation.
Expect the IDF to continue battle field preparations with targeted air strike on Hezbollah leadership and destruction of command and logistical facilities.
I expect to see the fight in Gaza to ebb and flow as Israel pulls back and allows Hamas to regroup, only to smack them hard again.
Iran –
Despite being thought of as “moderate,” Iran’s newly-elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, on Monday confirmed he would continue the regime’s anti-Israel stance. Additionally, reports indicated a substantial increase recently in Iran’s missile production capabilities.
Underlining Iran’s hostile position, Reuters reported on Monday that the regime conducted “major expansions” at two key ballistic missile facilities.
According to two American researchers, the expansion will boost missile production, a conclusion confirmed by three senior Iranian officials.
According to satellite images from March and April viewed by Reuters, the Modarres military base and the Khojir missile production complex have more than 30 new buildings. Many of these buildings are surrounded by dirt berms designed to prevent an explosion in one building from igniting combustible materials in nearby structures.
OBSERVATION - Iran is wasting no time taking advantage of Russian money and demand for its missile products to expand facilities that can also produce arms for a fight against Israel. This aggressiveness looks to continue under the new Iranian president.
This can be used in every campaign our people run in...
As summer activities increase, I may sporadically miss a day or so without warning. Just so you know I haven’t gone to ground or similar. Summers are short here in the redoubt so we have to experience them when they are here.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence on Tuesday warned in a public statement online, that Iran was working to encourage pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel protests and even providing funding for them in their effort to stoke discord in American society.
Iranian government actors have sought to opportunistically take advantage of ongoing protests regarding the war in Gaza, using a playbook we’ve seen other actors use over the years. We have observed actors tied to Iran’s government posing as activists online, seeking to encourage protests, and even providing financial support to protesters,” Avril Haines said
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/byocifipr
OBSERVATION - Of course Iran is helping to fund the pro-Hamas protests. Totally expected.
NOTE - This can also be cross referenced to Terrorism given the documented large numbers of Iranian supporting moslems that have crossed the border illegally and are not being monitored by the govt.
***
(FO) Climate Defiance, a left wing environmental activist group, is organizing a protest against the Biden campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware starting on Monday, 15 July.
“He [Biden] has lost the confidence of his country and his party… We need a new candidate [to beat Trump],” the announcement reads.
According to the announcement, the protesters “will not leave” until Biden is replaced on the Democratic presidential ticket.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. finished its withdrawal of forces from an airbase in Niger on Sunday, after Nigerian officials ordered Washington to pull its military presence from the African country.
A military junta took over the country’s government in a coup in the capital city of Niamey last year, which has strengthened the country’s ties with Russia. The Pentagon ordered withdrawal from the country in May, after the junta ended a military cooperation deal with the U.S. The move has sparked concerns of a resurgence in terrorist activity in the region.
The base, dubbed Air Base 101, was located near the capital city, and is one of two airbases in the West African country. The U.S. has a presence in Africa and the Middle East to help combat threats from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
The U.S. will withdraw from the second airbase, located in the city of Agadez, in September.
OBSERVATION - This pullout has been announced for months - another shining example of the disastrous foreign policies of the regime
***
The U.S. Defense Department announced that the Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program is “several years” behind schedule and 81% over budget. Defense assures the U.S. that “the U.S. nuclear arsenal remains safe, secure, and effective” despite “operating beyond their original design life.”
OBSERVATION - Contractors need to be held to greater accountability for this kind of crappy performance. However, that will only occur when congress adjusts contracting laws permitting a bigger stick when dealing with these grifters. Also, the military project managers need a swift kick in the rear to hold the line.
SpaceX was able to get their manned space capsule operational something like four years earlier and at a fraction of the cost the Boing/NASA capsule and without the continuing glitches. Same for Starlink bringing internet service while the govt wasted 43 billion on nothing.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Private polling from Democrat and Republican sources revealed that former President Donald Trump has extended his lead over President Joe Biden in the bellwether state of Pennsylvania from 4 percentage points to 10. The dramatic surge followed their June 27 debate in Atlanta
OBSERVATION - Again, treat these polls gently, but this does seem to fall in line with other indicators of Trump strength in Penn.
Other polls reporting -
Trump holds a 3-point lead over President Joe Biden, according to an Emerson College poll released Tuesday.
Trump leads President Joe Biden by 7 points among voters 50 and over in the key battleground state of Wisconsin, according to a poll released Tuesday by the American Association of Retired Persons.
With voters 50 and over in Wisconsin, Trump leads Biden 48% to 41%. Trump leads by 15 points among those in the 50-64 age range, while the candidates are tied at 45% each when taken from those voters aged 65 and over. Women overall favor Biden by 8 points while men 18 and over prefer Trump by 22 points.
***
Lawfare is progressing against the USSC by democrats. In a letter, Senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and Ron Wyden (D-OR) urged Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint a Special Counsel to investigate “possible violations of federal ethics and tax laws” by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.
OBSERVATION - Thomas is enemy #1 for democrats. Question is do they have the time to get all the hurdles jumped and will Garland actually crush the constitutional procedures in appointing a special counsel all before the elections - an act that may galvanize republicans to greater support of Trump - proving that democrats seek to jail opposition.
Biden / Harris Watch –
President Joe Biden canceled an early evening meeting with the German chancellor Olaf Scholz at the last minute because he had to go to bed, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
OBSERVATION - NATO country security chiefs have also reportedly contacted the US NSC to war of grave concerns over bidens mental and physical condition. Going to bed early probably saved biden even more gaffs from early reporting on his comments at another public NATO event.
Illegal Immigration –
Illegals are forming gangs and arming up in major cities, creating greater sources of crime above that of the locals.
China –
Chinese military will kick off joint “anti-terrorist training” with Belarusian troops on July 8 in Brest, near the border with Poland, a NATO member.
Dubbed ‘Eagle Assault,’ the drills will run over 11 days and conclude on July 19. Interestingly, the eagle (bald eagle) has been the national bird of the US since 1782 and remains the national symbol. It is featured on the country’s Great Seal and various other official emblems.
According to a previous announcement by the Chinese Defense Ministry, the drills are mainly aimed at anti-terrorism operations and will include missions like hostage rescue. Photos released by the Belarusian Defense Ministry showed Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops arriving in Belarus on a Y-20 strategic transport aircraft.
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/china-begins-assault-usa-military-drills/#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - China’s action here by some is considered to be a response to NATO interest in opposing Chinese aggression in the western Pacific region. It is also a sign that China is presenting itself more aggressively on a world stage, not just a regional one.
RELATED - NATO is launching numerous projects with Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand, the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4), to deepen cooperation on artificial intelligence, disinformation, cybersecurity, Ukraine aid, ship maintenance, and weapon production.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jul 10, 2024.
Russia lacks the munitions and troops to start a major offensive in Ukraine and would need to secure significant ammunition supplies from other countries beyond what it already has in order to do so, a senior NATO official said. He estimated that Russia would be able to maintain its war economy for three to four more years.
NOTE - I’m behind in generating a more detailed assessment. This summary pretty well catches the largest part of it. Looking further at Russia’s actions from the spring/summer offensive, they sought to attack across a large front and only marginally focused forces on just a few axes of advance. In failing to focus forces, they gave Ukraine the opportunity to regain its defensive footing after initial Russian successes.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.
RUMINT – Polish jets flying near border w/Ukraine & entered UA airspace, according to reliable source on site. Rumors circulating all day that an agreement brokered w/Kyiv and NATO to have them patrol western Ukrainian airspace…especially after the massive Russian attack that destroyed a children’s hospital.
More rumors that Europe is cooperating with Ukraine in recruiting western F16 pilots already qualified to fly for Ukraine - increasing the number and experience of pilots. This plan was expressed over a year ago after the OK was given to begin the process of turning over F16s to Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 Shahed drones overnight. Areas in western and southern Ukraine were targeted.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has hit a number of Russian petroleum sites with drones.
Outlook —
The war on the ground is pretty static. Russia doesn’t have the resources to make any substantial concentrated push while Ukraine is in the same situation. Resumption of delivery of weapons and munitions have stalled the Russian advance while drastically increasing their personnel and equipment losses.
The deep war is still dynamic and can change very quickly. Given the backlash from the children’s hospital strike, I’m not sure if Russia is going to pause further missile strikes.
A tactical evaluation of the missile strikes that hit Kyiv suggest that air defense arrays were not fully 360 degrees around the city, so the cruise missiles went around and hit Kyiv from the essentially undefended western side.
Belarus -
See China above - joint exercise with China.
Poland –
Poland stopped the passage of trucks from Belarus to Poland last night. State Customs Committee of Belarus informs that since 3 a.m. of July 10, Poland has stopped accepting trucks from Belarus to Poland through the Kazlovichy checkpoint. It’s reported that the number of trucks in the queue grew to 600 overnight.
Kazlovichy (Kukuryki) is the only functioning cargo checkpoint on the border between Belarus and Poland.
Europe / NATO General –
Former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman is urging French Jewry to flee France, warning that “there is no time” following the far-left’s triumph in the country’s parliamentary elections.
As Breitbart News reported, French President Emmanuel Macron’s alliance with the New Popular Front delivered a victory over Marine Le Pen’s populist right, which has raised concerns about antisemitism, with many French Jews feeling increasingly uncertain about their place in France.
The unexpected shift in political power has sparked fears within the roughly 500,000-strong Jewish community, boosting worries about the potential implications for its safety and rights.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-38/
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel Defense Minister says 60% of Hamas fighters killed in the war in Gaza
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight more than 30 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israeli sites in the Golan Heights
Israeli Army Radio: 28 Israelis have been killed by Hezbollah fire in the north since the beginning of the war, including 11 civilians and 17 soldiers.
Israeli forces distribute leaflets calling on the people of Gaza City to move south
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli forces arrested at least 12 citizens from the West Bank and Jerusalem from yesterday evening until Wednesday morning.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Islamic Resistance in Iraq: We targeted the Orot Rabin power generation station in Israel with drones
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Foreign Ministers of Egypt and Jordan discuss a number of regional issues, most notably the war in the Gaza Strip, the risks of escalation in Lebanon and Syria, and the security of the Red Sea.
Jordanian Foreign Ministry: We condemn in the strongest terms Israel’s systematic targeting of shelter centers in Gaza
——— FORECAST ————————-
Continued intense fighting in Gaza City area. Otherwise, a continuation of the wack a mole tactics throughout the rest of Gaza.
Tensions remain high in the north, with Israel almost daily taking out another senior Hezbollah leader in a targeted strike with retaliatory rocket fire. Israel continues to shift military assets towards the north.
Life and summers are short - enjoy them while you can - -besides this fall and winter could get really interesting.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
An anti-terrorism brief was held on Fort Liberty (Bragg) today where they listed several Pro-Life organizations as “terrorist organizations.”
The organizations labeled by the army as terror organizations include National Right to Life and Operation Rescue.
A slide show with the presentation also included a screenshot of a license plate with “IM4IT,” which is a plate many Pro-Life citizens put on their car which implies normal citizens are terrorists if they display this plate.
The slide goes on to mention activities which these organizations participate in which include being Pro-Life, opposing Row v Wade, demonstrating and protesting (a 1st Amendment protected right), “Truth Displays,” and picketing.
OBSERVATION - This increased aggressive action(s) to radicalize the military into a further woke status and prepare them to assault citizens of the US is an abomination. Quiet frankly, the entire chain of command of the base as well as that of the contributing intelligence community should be taken out of power - IMHO with a new tour of duty bagging groceries at the Ft. Leavenworth commissary.
***
Judges have sided with Milwaukee in barring protestors permits to enter the exclusion zone around the convention center. Needless to say, this has generated anger and threats to try to force their way into the area to disrupt the RNC convention.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Many have said that Trump can be his own worst enemy, but since the debate with biden, he has sat relatively quietly on the sideline and has allowed the democrats to implode on their own over biden’s mental disorders. A ‘disciplined’ Trump on this matter is making the left go crazy, infinitely desirous for anything to deflect the public view from biden and the ongoing melt down.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Support for biden to stay in the race is still crumbling as many key democrats continue to speak out.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) said Wednesday on CNN’s ” Newsnight” that it would not hurt for President Joe Biden to take a cognitive test.
Pelosi refusing to say she supports biden and says its “his choice” to stay in the race.
Hollyweird elites calling for him to step down.
Stephanopolous notes he his mentally impaired.
And now reports that Chucky Schumer is working behind the scenes with mega democrat donors to find a suitable replacement for biden.
***
Biden’s mic gets cut while he rambles on about DEI and reporters are rushed out of the room at a recent event.
Illegal Immigration –
The House on Wednesday passed a proof-of-citizenship requirement for voter registration, a proposal Republicans have prioritized as an election-year talking point even as research shows noncitizens illegally registering and casting ballots in federal elections is exceptionally rare.
The legislation, approved largely along partisan lines but with five Democrats voting in favor, is unlikely to advance through the Democratic-led Senate.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/congress-voting-migrants/2024/07/10/id/1172004/
OBSERVATION - Dangerous assumption that is won’t fly in the senate. Here in Big Sky country, a nefarious scoundrel Tester is facing a political battle of national proportions as he tries to pivot into a Montanan ‘reddish’ politician. His re-election depends on convincing the state he has their best interests in mind. A vote against this can and will be used against his huge campaign purchase trying to define him as strong on illegal immigration. He is not alone on this.
biden as promised to veto the bill should it pass, but then the fallout will come back to bit the democrats at the polls as well. Security of the vote is a big issue and this bill is a no brainer - except for the hard leftist who are trying to finagle a sizable illegal vote in order to retain power.
China –
China has moved the Shandong carrier strike group into the Western Pacific.
Japan’s defense ministry confirmed the aircraft carrier, escorted by some of China’s newest & most advanced warships, was 500km SE of Okinawa, Japan, July 9th
1st transit east of Taiwan in 2024
The Shandong CSG is comprised of:
- CNS Shandong (17) Kuznetsov-class (Mod) Aircraft Carrier
- CNS Xi’an (106) Renhai-class guided-missile Cruiser/Destroyer
- CNS Guilin (164) Luyang lll-class (Mod) guided-missile Destroyer
- CNS Yuncheng (571) Jiangkai ll-class guided-missile
OBSERVATION - deployment continues to train and test Chinese tactics and capabilities to include regional force projection.
***
Taiwan’s defense ministry has reported a surge of Chinese military aircraft around the self-ruled island, a day after Beijing reportedly conducted military drills with an aircraft carrier in nearby waters.
The ministry on Thursday said it had detected 66 Chinese military aircraft operating around Taiwan in the past 24 hours, making it a record high this year.
“66 PLA aircraft and seven PLAN vessels operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 am (2200 GMT Wednesday) today,” the defense ministry said in its statement.
As per the ministry, 56 of the planes crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, entering Taiwan’s northern, southwestern and southeastern air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
Seven Chinese navy vessels were also detected operating around Taiwan on Wednesday, the ministry added.
The previous record of Chinese military planes around Taiwan was in May, when Beijing sent 62 military aircraft and 27 naval vessels. It came in the middle of military exercises Beijing launched after Taiwan President Lai Ching-te took office.
OBSERVATION - Chinese incursions, both by air and sea, have been gradually increasing. China has the capability to impose a blockade of Taiwan on short notice should Xi see that weakness in biden and turmoil in the US create an opportunity.
***
China has fiercely rejected accusations from Nato - whose leaders are meeting in Washington - that it’s helping maintain Russia’s war in Ukraine
Beijing called on Nato to “stop hyping up the so-called China threat”, and urged nations to reflect on the “root causes” of the war
***
A U.S. Coast Guard cutter on routine patrol in the Bering Sea came across several Chinese military ships in international waters but within the U.S. exclusive economic zone, officials said Wednesday.
The crew detected three vessels approximately 124 miles (200 kilometers) north of the Amchitka Pass in the Aleutian Islands, the Coast Guard said in a statement. A short time later, a helicopter aircrew from Coast Guard Air Station Kodiak spotted a fourth ship approximately 84 miles (135 kilometers) north of the Amukta Pass.
All four of the People’s Republic of China vessels were “transiting in international waters but still inside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone,” which extends 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from the U.S. shoreline, the statement said.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/china-naval-ships/2024/07/11/id/1172043/
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.
RUMINT –
NATO countries supplying F16s to Ukraine indicate that deliveries may be accelerated and that some have already been delivered.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 Shahed drones overnight in western Ukraine.
Ukraine struck a building materials warehouse in occupied Luhansk, setting it on fire.
Russian air defense reportedly destroyed and intercepted 5 drones overnight - two over the Bryansk region and one each over the Tambov, Tula and Moscow regions, - the Russian Ministry of Defense reported
Ocheretyne -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Voskhod village in Donetsk region.
Outlook —
Ground action continues along the whole of the eastern front. Activity in the Kharkiv region is down. Minor gains reported for Russia, but nothing tactically or strategically significant. Russia continues to waste a lot of personnel and equipment with their attacks that continue to be picked apart by Ukraine FPVs and artillery.
Watching the developments as far as F16s go. Increased rumblings of non-Ukrainian pilots being recruited to bolster the capabilities of Ukraine.
Expect significant growth in Russia threats should Ukraine start using the deep strike capabilities of British/French cruise missiles to target key airbases in Russia. Russia will threaten retaliation, but I don’t think they are quiet ready to come to blows with any NATO member at this time. Just more nuclear threats.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- Intense IAF bombing throughout much of Gaza overnight.
- US to resume shipments of 500 lb bombs to Israel.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
The U.S. will soon begin shipping to Israel the 500-pound bombs that the Biden administration had previously suspended, ending a two-month pause it had imposed in a bid to reduce civilian casualties in Gaza, U.S. officials said
Rumors of some progress on hostage/ceasefire talks but both sides are still considerably far apart.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Unusually heavy strikes reported in Gaza overnight; sounds of explosions from Gaza reported in towns across Israel.
Israeli Army Radio reports 5 rockets were fired from Rafah towards the Gaza Strip, all were intercepted. Israeli army airstrike eliminated the responsible terror cell.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Ongoing Hezbollah strikes and Israeli counter strikes along the border.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army says tanks and artillery shelled Syrian Army sites in southern Syria that had violated a 1974 disengagement agreement. According to the Israeli army, the structures erected in the Golan Heights were a violation of the Agreement on Disengagement signed in 1974 between Israel and Syria, which concluded the Yom Kippur War.”The Israeli army considers the Syrian Army responsible for everything that happens in its territory and will not allow attempts to violate the disengagement agreement,” the military adds
***
Iran has all the parts it needs for a nuclear bomb, it just needs to assemble it, warned Israeli army Deputy Chief of Staff Major General Amir Baram this week. Israeli officials reportedly are concerned Iran may exploit US election season to develop nuclear weapons
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel Forces arrested 15 Palestinians from the West Bank yesterday.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. Central Command: In the past 24 hours, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed one Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) in a Houthi controlled area of Yemen. It was determined the UAV presented an imminent threat to U.S
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Erdogan: Israel’s threats must stop to avoid deeper conflicts in the region
British Foreign Minister: We want an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip
——— FORECAST ————————-
Situation in Gaza continues to be dynamic. It does look like the recent Gaza City operations are at their peak and we should see action there pull down. Israel will then let hamas filter out of their hidy holes only to be wacked again.
Against Hezbollah, expect more Israeli targeted actions against Hezbollah (and Iranian if lucky) leadership.
Iran –
See Israel above over concerns that Iran has developed the key components necessary for a nuclear bomb.
Please see the first item in this post. It’s about the government labeling pro-life organizations as terror groups.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?page=649#649
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The creators of the so called anti-terrorisom briefing at Ft Liberty (Bragg) have have been canceled, reportedly for failing to get approval of the briefing and slides. Typical military response to CYA. Probably DEI/Woke civilians, should be given tooth brushes and tasked to clean all the toilets on post for starters.
This is likely just the tip of the iceberg, as other similar training flying under the radar is probably going on - all to desensitize soldiers to support anti-constitutional actions when/if ordered to do so.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US just announced plans to place new long-range weapons in its European ally Germany in 2026.
The planned deployment of new weapons systems to Germany follows the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and comes as NATO learns key lessons from the war in Ukraine, one being the value of ground-launched long-range strike options.
The US and Germany released a statement on Wednesday on the coming “episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026, as part of planning for enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-says-going-put-long-212122932.html
OBSERVATION - 2026 is a long ways away with numerous bumps to get over before any full deployment. Russia of course is not pleased.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
democrats trying to pick up the piece following the NATO summit and the big boy press conference
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden’s gaff-a-rama continued yesterday with him announcing the president of Ukraine as “President Putin.”
Then he did his stand up routine - “big boy” press conference, only arriving 50 minutes late. There he announced that he had selected Trump to be his VP. Biden had difficulty keeping a train of thought and expressing himself coherently.
Many commentators suggest that the presser wasn’t a crash and burn, while others related it to being worse than the debate. Biden appears adamant that he is not withdrawing from the race.
Meanwhile, rumblings that 0bama and pelosi are maneuvering to get him out and get a replacement selected.
Three new House Democrats called for President Joe Biden to give up his shot at reelection on Thursday night. Rep. Jim Himes from Connecticut, California Democrat Rep. Scott Peters and Rep. Eric Sorensen, an Illinois all called for him to step down. The three new lawmakers bring the total of House Democrats to call for Biden’s exit to seven on Thursday, with 16 House Democrats in total and one Democratic senator.
OBSERVATION - SMH, biden is not getting the cover from the press on his mental/physical condition he has for the past 3.5 years. The press sensing blood and the powers that be are allowing biden to continue to shoot himself in the foot in front of the american people, in addition to foreign leaders.
democrats are running out of options as biden et al appear to be digging in for a fight.
- continue the expose of his medical condition in hopes that he changes his mind with enough time before the convention for an alternative to have a chance.
- force the issue via 25th amendment actions and face the potential blow up of a political civil war in the party
- attempt some maneuvering for an open convention and nominate someone else in his place.
It’s not only his conditions and bad polling, but it is crossing over into the congressional elections. Dems already faced a difficult fight to maintain what they currently have. Now support is shifting in some large part to biden’s mental issues. Its one thing to lose a presidential election as long as control of the congress is maintained. lose both and things will be very bad for democrats over the next 4 years.
That still doesn’t solve who to replace him with. Currently harris has the political backing and financial support. mike 0bama has reiterated he doesn’t want the job, newscum is circling around like a shark looking for an opening and other potential names are staying back so as not to torpedo their political careers in a foolish attempt to save the elections for the party.
Illegal Immigration –
Senate Democrats blocked the passage of the SAVE Act, a bill crucial for enhancing the integrity of federal elections by mandating proof of citizenship.
Russia -
*****
Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate leading figures in the European defense industrial base (DIB), likely as part of Russian efforts to disrupt and deter Western aid to Ukraine and Russia’s wider efforts to destabilize NATO members. ISW
Russia issued a stern warning to the US and in particular Germany regarding the announced placement of intermediate ranged missile systems in Germany. Germany to now be in cross hairs of the Kremlin for any future conflict.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.
RUMINT –
Several thousand people have registered to join the Ukrainian legion in Poland, according to the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Sikorski announced that Poland is starting to prepare the first Ukrainian brigade made up of volunteers living in Poland. Many of them want to serve but insist on receiving proper training and equipment before being sent into combat.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Yesterday evening and overnight Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 11 of 19 Shahed drones, launched by Russia.
The United States and Ukraine announced that they are preparing a military response to russia’s strike on Okhmatdyt hospital, Biden’s adviser Sullivan said.
The eastern front remained relatively static, with no signifiant gains by either side. Ukraine is increasing pressure in the Kharkiv sector while Russia presses the Ocheretyne axis.
Outlook —
Red flags are popping up with the joint announcement that the US is actively planning with Ukraine to retaliate against the children’s hospital strike. Besides rhetoric, that carries the potential for a physical escalation in the scope of the war. Its one thing to allow Ukraine to use the weapons supplied to their fullest advantage. Its another to announce actual joint planning of an attack.
The biggest potential target for such an attack are the airbases that have most of the Russian jets used in the Ukraine operation. OSINT sources using open source imagery note that Russia has taken no significant precautions in parking these aircraft, such as using revetments, etc, but just park them side by side on the aprons. Sitting ducks.
Russian strategic bombers are too deep to be reached by US weapons available to Ukraine IIRC.
Ukraine has been devastating Russian S400 batteries with the ATACMS equipped with bomblets. The S400s cannot defend against the missiles and its radar cannot see the bomblets, with a spread that usually catches the radar, command rig and some of the missile TELs for destruction. Some estimates I’ve seen have over 25% of the systems being destroyed, with remaining ones spread thinner and thinner.
Poland –
Poland announces it will increase the number of soldiers on the border with Belarus to 17,000.
OBSERVATION - These troops will primarily be dealing with Belarus’ aggressive support to middle eastern ‘migrants’ trying to force their way into Poland and the rest of europe and not so much a Belarus military threat.
Europe / NATO General –
Allied Supreme Commander Says NATO Ready to Fight Russia - NATO is now focused on deterring Russia and prepared for high-intensity conflict if necessary.
Gen. Christopher Cavoli stated that NATO has developed concrete operational plans to defend specific alliance areas.
- NATO has more than 300,000 troops at high readiness, with extensive exercises like Steadfast Defender involving 90,000 troops.
- Allies are contributing nearly their entire military force structure to NATO’s plans, with a focus on readiness and logistics.
- Lessons from the war in Ukraine are being integrated into NATO’s future doctrine and readiness checks.
OBSERVATION - Europe continues preparations for eventual war with Russia.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- IDF partial pull out from Gaza City
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli forces withdrew from some Gaza City districts overnight after a fierce, week-long military offensive.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army says it struck a Syrian military post in southern Syria’s Tasil overnight, in response to a rocket attack. The rocket fired late Thursday struck an open area in the southern Golan Heights, causing no injuries
——— FORECAST ————————-
Continued search and destroy operations in Gaza.
Continued pin point targeting of Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon
Hostage / cease fire negations to continue.
Misc of Note –
Initial NOAA reports of a strengthening La Nina with the potential for full on conditions as early as August. Such could provide a trigger to a more aggressive hurricane season in addition to weather changes across the country.
Wish we lived in a time when a free press would look into this - but of course the MSM covers for the corruipt, woke and horrible.
Wish we lived in a time when a free press would look into this - but of course the MSM covers for the corrupt, woke and horrible.
Globalism / Great Reset –
(FO) Reps. John Curtis (R-UT) and Scott Peters (D-CA) introduced H.R. 8957, the Providing Reliable, Objective, Verifiable Emissions Intensity and Transparency (PROVE IT) Act, which would require the Department of Energy (DOE) to conduct a study on the carbon intensity of U.S. and foreign-made products.
Curtis said, “It’s a study” and not the first step in implementing a carbon tax, in response to critics of the bill who say the study is setting up an eventual carbon tax and could create a trade war with Europe.
OBSERVATION - Camel’s nose under the tent.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
RNC convention next week. Protests/riots are being planned, just how large and violent is not known. Much may depend on the controversy over biden remaining in the race or not. My best estimate is that some of the protests will go riot mode in at least a limited extent, initially focused on breaching the police barriers protecting the convention center and if failing there, general mayhem and destruction in the surrounding business district.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
(FO) During a security summit yesterday, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas called on industry and government partners to work together to prevent future threats after the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards expired in 2023.
Mayorkas said two “close call” incidents were prevented this year when law enforcement intervened in the sale of high-risk chemicals to an individual fraudulently claiming to be a university researcher, and a chemical company prevented the sale of acetylene to a man who attacked a New Year’s Eve celebration in Rochester, NY.
OBSERVATION - This is very likely the tip of the iceberg.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.0% from 12 months earlier and down 0.1%, on a seasonally-adjusted basis from May. The last time CPI increased less than three percent was in March of 2021 (2.6%).
At 3.0%, inflation is also more than twice the 1.4% increase registered when former President Donald Trump left office in January of 2021 and December of 2020.
In June of this year, the seasonally-adjusted, month-to-month increase in the so-called “core” CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% from May and 3.3% from the increase in June of 2023.
Indexes which increased from May to June include utility gas service (2.4%,), food (+0.2%), shelter (+0.2%), and medical care services (+0.2%). The indexes for energy (-2.0%), used cars and trucks (-1.5%), and transportation services (-0.5%) were among those that decreased over the month.
Compared to 12 months earlier, the indexes for transportation services (+9.4%) and shelter (5.2%) posted the largest increases, while those for used cars and truck (-10.1%) and gasoline (-2.5%) recorded the greatest declines.
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/june-marks-39th-straight-month-inflation-least-three-percent
OBSERVATION - Damage has been done and upward pressures are gaining.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US has opened an ‘Aegis Ashore’ site, a ballistic missile interceptor facility, strategically located in northern Poland overlooking the continent and the Baltic Sea.
It is the second base of its kind within a wider Nato air defence network. Its sister opened in 2016 and is situated in the town of Deveselu, southern Romania, approximately 1,880 kilometres away.
Nato Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) manages this so-called “missile shield” network that protects European populations, territory and forces against its namesake threat. First conceived at the Lisbon Summit in 2010, the BMD shield also comprises US Navy destroyers out of Spain and early warning radar in Kurecik, South Eastern Türkiye.
According to Nato, Aegis Ashore are purely defensive; around 200 military personnel are stationed at the two interceptor sites in Poland and Romania.
OBSERVATION - This system caused Russia fits when first announced years ago. What isn’t stated is the number (if any ) interceptors have been installed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
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Speculation is growing over who Trump will select as his VP. Many thought he would have announced at the debate. Now with the democrats imploding over biden’s dementia, his campaign is re-evalating his choice with the evolving campaign environment. With the convention starting next week, the clock is running down.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden hit the campaign circuit with vengeance yesterday, still trying to shake the image of a demented frail old man. On social media, the resurgence of biden has filled multiple bandwidths of flow - all trying to squelch the sinking of his campaign ship.
This attempt to regain status is not gaining traction. Democrat coffers - the real deciding point for them you know - are hurting for lack of contributions. More so, the big $$$$ dem donors are freezing their contributions until biden is out. More in congress , media and holly weird are calling for a replacement.
RUMORS are that things behind the curtail are getting outright nasty. Allegation that Jill Biden is running the country right now. Joe Biden is sleeping up to 16 hrs. per day. The Biden and Obama family rift has now blown fully open and any aides loyal to Obama are going to get canned. Obama is going to try and force Joe out. Obama is meeting privately with power players to get them to withdraw funding. Hollywood will begin to turn on Biden via Obama is telling them.
Now increasing calls for an open DNC convention - with the release of all pledged delegates. democrats continue to slog towards a massive dumpster fire of their own making.
Another big question is how long can biden maintain this campaign schedule? Keeping him hopped up on drugs in his state is not good. As we saw in 2020, he lacked the energy to maintain any vigorous campaign schedule.
Illegal Immigration –
The Mayor of Springfield, Ohio, a town with a population of 58,082 just announced that his city has been conquered by over 20,000 Haitian illegals that the Biden regime brought in
“We do not have the capacity to sustain that, it’s taxing our infrastructure, it’s taxing public safety, it’s taxing our schools, it’s taxing healthcare, and taxing our housing.”
The numbers of illegals being placed in the city have grown by these numbers over the past four years. Most of the costs have fallen on the city as the NGO/501c3 organization(s) that are supposed to pay these costs have not. One such group, called National Youth Advocate Project has been awarded $292 million by the Dept of Health and Human Services for assistance to unaccompanied illegal alien children in Ohio since 2021. The organization’s 2022 IRS form 990 says that the CEO, Marvena Twigg (social worker), earned $1.27 million that year.
Not sure if this is the organization that is suppose to be footing the bill in Springfield, (some on the interwebs are saying yes) but depicts the cash cow biden’s illegal programs have become.
Rumors here in the Redoubt that similar ‘placement’ is occurring in smaller towns here as well. And where I live I’ve noticed an up tick in spanish speaking individuals/families.
Russia -
*****
Russian leaders are laughing about biden’s display of dementia at the NATO summit. Saying what the NATO leaders are reluctant to say in the open.
Economic Impact –
Russia is now taxing their rich at a much higher rate in order to defray war costs.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.
RUMINT –
Continued back and forth on how many and when F16s will officially be in Ukraine’s and usable for the war effort.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
4 Shehed drones were shot down overnight. Other Russian drones/missiles targeted Dniper, and Sloviansk in E Ukraine.
Ukraine missiles hit Nova Kakhovka yesterday setting off multiple secondary explosions.
Air defense systems destroyed 4 drones over the Rostov, Belgorod and Kursk regions - Russian Ministry of Defense
Russian pressing the attack in the Ocheretyne region, but no reported gains.
Outlook —
A lot of the war news out of Ukraine is being buried by US presidential election news. Effectively, the Russian offensive is stalled. It his also facing an increasing problem in meeting the logistical needs of the forces. One of the big ones is adequate supplies of clean drinking water. Temps are in the upper 90s to 100s and Ukraine drones continue to hammer rear areas nailing every soft sided supply vehicle in their sights. This has forced Russian front line soldiers to rely on likely contaminated water sources - with unconfirmed reports of associated medical problems incapacitating some forces.
Ukraine and Russia main front is what I’ve been calling the ‘deep war’ - drone and missile strikes on deep infrastructure targets. Tactics continue to evolve. Ukraine has had better success lately, though Russia has bigger bombs/missiles. This aspect of the war can change very quickly.
One component is the rumored joint efforts of the US and Ukraine to respond to Russia’s strike on the Children’s cancer hospital in Kyiv. The extent and nature of the ‘response’ could shape future fighting in a significant manner.
Poland –
Polish border guards and soldiers fired on middle eastern and african migrants trying to force their way into Poland from Belarus over the past several days.
Europe / NATO General –
Finland has passed Europe’s toughest border bill. The bill makes it possible to turn illegal migrants back at the border without registering their asylum request if they are recognized as part of a hybrid warfare operation
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- IDF takes out Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of Hamas’s Khan Yunis Brigade.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Palestinian Media has confirmed the death of Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of Hamas’s Khan Yunis Brigade in the Southern Gaza Strip, who was successfully eliminated by an Israeli airstrike.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli fighter jets struck a building used by Hezbollah, an observation post, and other infrastructure in southern Lebanon’s Kafr Kila, Taybe and Khiam this evening, the Israeli army says.
Hezbollah meanwhile announces the deaths of two members killed in recent Israel strikes in Lebanon, bringing the terror group’s toll amid the war to at least 366.
Air defenses intercepted a missile launched from Lebanon towards Metulla.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US Central Command: Three Houthi drones were destroyed in Yemen overnight.
Houthi military spokesman: We targeted a ship in the Red Sea and then Bab al-Mandab with missiles and drones
——— FORECAST ————————-
Action levels in Gaza and Lebanon have gone down over the past few days.
The pull out of Israel’s 99th Division from Gaza is likely the first step in their redeployment to the Lebanon front. As I notes over a week ago, two of the three divisions operating in Gaza are expected to be redeployed to the north.
The Israeli military’s 162nd Division will continue to fight in the Rafah area and prepared to execute raids in the rest of the country in the interim.
Multiple accounts of the progress of the hostage/ceasefire talks are floating out there, with both sides saying the other is creating obstructions. Don’t hold your breaths. Hamas has lost most of the leverage it initially had with the hostages as Israel has refused to play the game with their rules.
Immediate future, apart from sudden Israeli raids, I suspect the IDF is pouring over recent intel collected in Gaza and is intent on narrowing down where Sindwar and the hostages may be at. At this stage, Israel’s claim that the Rafah operations would yield more hostages has not fully borne fruit and the hostage’s families are getting restless. Israel needs to score some rescues or face a crisis of lowered support for continued fighting over making any kind of hostage deal.
Syria -
I don’t note much in this lately as the key news is associated with Israel and the Gaza war spinoff. Much is just a continuation of the following
- Assad forces continue to attack Idlib region, anti assad forces counter attack
- Turkey attacks Kurds and anyone who gets in their way
- Anti-Assad and pro assad forces attack Turks
- ISIS attacks everyone
- US/Collation forces hit Iranian proxy militias and ISIS.
And in this mess well over 0ne million Syrians have been killed and dozens of cities have been leveled.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Turkey –
(FO) Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced at the NATO summit that he would veto any NATO cooperation or partnership with Israel until peace in Palestine was restored. He also said he intends to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a China-run security and economic bloc. Russian Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said Turkey’s membership in NATO creates a conflict of interest with the SCO’s founding documents and would delay the full accession.
OBSERVATION - Edrogan continues to bounce all over the geopolitical sphere. For some dumb reason the US continues to store nuclear warheads in that country.
I'm guessing in order :Ben Carson, Kristi Noem, or Ron DeSantis...
I see Carson (a good person BTW) is in the mold of then Pence.
Noem is ok, but is she up for 2028 as well as getting her fingernails dirty in the massive clean out the swamp wars to come.
Ron failed on the national stage. Has being a governor dial in pretty good. Needs the next year to stabilize Florida and position for 2028, but too early to place on the ticket.
I doubt we’re seeing even a fraction of the terror activity happening around us.
Every once in a while they release some info, enough to cause people to think our government is actually watching out for us, making themselves look good.
The advantage for Carson is twofold - first he's the best choice if the top of the ticket is Harris or Newsome. Two people who will toss the 'race card' into the game. And you're right about Carson - he is a good man, but I don't see him as a backstabber... He allows Trump to keep the hard earned new Black and Hispanic men vote. Which matters... Noem is great against Hillary or any democrat woman - and you're 100% right on DeSantis. He's not ready for prime time. But since he's governor of the state I live in and I get to see all the good things he's done, I usually toss him into any discussion of VP's. In two years Trump could appoint him Border Czar or something... IMHO
Flash. Shots fired at trump in pa. He is ok with minor injury
Thanks for the update.
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