As summer activities increase, I may sporadically miss a day or so without warning. Just so you know I haven’t gone to ground or similar. Summers are short here in the redoubt so we have to experience them when they are here.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence on Tuesday warned in a public statement online, that Iran was working to encourage pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel protests and even providing funding for them in their effort to stoke discord in American society.
Iranian government actors have sought to opportunistically take advantage of ongoing protests regarding the war in Gaza, using a playbook we’ve seen other actors use over the years. We have observed actors tied to Iran’s government posing as activists online, seeking to encourage protests, and even providing financial support to protesters,” Avril Haines said
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/byocifipr
OBSERVATION - Of course Iran is helping to fund the pro-Hamas protests. Totally expected.
NOTE - This can also be cross referenced to Terrorism given the documented large numbers of Iranian supporting moslems that have crossed the border illegally and are not being monitored by the govt.
***
(FO) Climate Defiance, a left wing environmental activist group, is organizing a protest against the Biden campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware starting on Monday, 15 July.
“He [Biden] has lost the confidence of his country and his party… We need a new candidate [to beat Trump],” the announcement reads.
According to the announcement, the protesters “will not leave” until Biden is replaced on the Democratic presidential ticket.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. finished its withdrawal of forces from an airbase in Niger on Sunday, after Nigerian officials ordered Washington to pull its military presence from the African country.
A military junta took over the country’s government in a coup in the capital city of Niamey last year, which has strengthened the country’s ties with Russia. The Pentagon ordered withdrawal from the country in May, after the junta ended a military cooperation deal with the U.S. The move has sparked concerns of a resurgence in terrorist activity in the region.
The base, dubbed Air Base 101, was located near the capital city, and is one of two airbases in the West African country. The U.S. has a presence in Africa and the Middle East to help combat threats from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
The U.S. will withdraw from the second airbase, located in the city of Agadez, in September.
OBSERVATION - This pullout has been announced for months - another shining example of the disastrous foreign policies of the regime
***
The U.S. Defense Department announced that the Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program is “several years” behind schedule and 81% over budget. Defense assures the U.S. that “the U.S. nuclear arsenal remains safe, secure, and effective” despite “operating beyond their original design life.”
OBSERVATION - Contractors need to be held to greater accountability for this kind of crappy performance. However, that will only occur when congress adjusts contracting laws permitting a bigger stick when dealing with these grifters. Also, the military project managers need a swift kick in the rear to hold the line.
SpaceX was able to get their manned space capsule operational something like four years earlier and at a fraction of the cost the Boing/NASA capsule and without the continuing glitches. Same for Starlink bringing internet service while the govt wasted 43 billion on nothing.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Private polling from Democrat and Republican sources revealed that former President Donald Trump has extended his lead over President Joe Biden in the bellwether state of Pennsylvania from 4 percentage points to 10. The dramatic surge followed their June 27 debate in Atlanta
OBSERVATION - Again, treat these polls gently, but this does seem to fall in line with other indicators of Trump strength in Penn.
Other polls reporting -
Trump holds a 3-point lead over President Joe Biden, according to an Emerson College poll released Tuesday.
Trump leads President Joe Biden by 7 points among voters 50 and over in the key battleground state of Wisconsin, according to a poll released Tuesday by the American Association of Retired Persons.
With voters 50 and over in Wisconsin, Trump leads Biden 48% to 41%. Trump leads by 15 points among those in the 50-64 age range, while the candidates are tied at 45% each when taken from those voters aged 65 and over. Women overall favor Biden by 8 points while men 18 and over prefer Trump by 22 points.
***
Lawfare is progressing against the USSC by democrats. In a letter, Senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and Ron Wyden (D-OR) urged Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint a Special Counsel to investigate “possible violations of federal ethics and tax laws” by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.
OBSERVATION - Thomas is enemy #1 for democrats. Question is do they have the time to get all the hurdles jumped and will Garland actually crush the constitutional procedures in appointing a special counsel all before the elections - an act that may galvanize republicans to greater support of Trump - proving that democrats seek to jail opposition.
Biden / Harris Watch –
President Joe Biden canceled an early evening meeting with the German chancellor Olaf Scholz at the last minute because he had to go to bed, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
OBSERVATION - NATO country security chiefs have also reportedly contacted the US NSC to war of grave concerns over bidens mental and physical condition. Going to bed early probably saved biden even more gaffs from early reporting on his comments at another public NATO event.
Illegal Immigration –
Illegals are forming gangs and arming up in major cities, creating greater sources of crime above that of the locals.
China –
Chinese military will kick off joint “anti-terrorist training” with Belarusian troops on July 8 in Brest, near the border with Poland, a NATO member.
Dubbed ‘Eagle Assault,’ the drills will run over 11 days and conclude on July 19. Interestingly, the eagle (bald eagle) has been the national bird of the US since 1782 and remains the national symbol. It is featured on the country’s Great Seal and various other official emblems.
According to a previous announcement by the Chinese Defense Ministry, the drills are mainly aimed at anti-terrorism operations and will include missions like hostage rescue. Photos released by the Belarusian Defense Ministry showed Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops arriving in Belarus on a Y-20 strategic transport aircraft.
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/china-begins-assault-usa-military-drills/#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - China’s action here by some is considered to be a response to NATO interest in opposing Chinese aggression in the western Pacific region. It is also a sign that China is presenting itself more aggressively on a world stage, not just a regional one.
RELATED - NATO is launching numerous projects with Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand, the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4), to deepen cooperation on artificial intelligence, disinformation, cybersecurity, Ukraine aid, ship maintenance, and weapon production.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jul 10, 2024.
Russia lacks the munitions and troops to start a major offensive in Ukraine and would need to secure significant ammunition supplies from other countries beyond what it already has in order to do so, a senior NATO official said. He estimated that Russia would be able to maintain its war economy for three to four more years.
NOTE - I’m behind in generating a more detailed assessment. This summary pretty well catches the largest part of it. Looking further at Russia’s actions from the spring/summer offensive, they sought to attack across a large front and only marginally focused forces on just a few axes of advance. In failing to focus forces, they gave Ukraine the opportunity to regain its defensive footing after initial Russian successes.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.
RUMINT – Polish jets flying near border w/Ukraine & entered UA airspace, according to reliable source on site. Rumors circulating all day that an agreement brokered w/Kyiv and NATO to have them patrol western Ukrainian airspace…especially after the massive Russian attack that destroyed a children’s hospital.
More rumors that Europe is cooperating with Ukraine in recruiting western F16 pilots already qualified to fly for Ukraine - increasing the number and experience of pilots. This plan was expressed over a year ago after the OK was given to begin the process of turning over F16s to Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 Shahed drones overnight. Areas in western and southern Ukraine were targeted.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has hit a number of Russian petroleum sites with drones.
Outlook —
The war on the ground is pretty static. Russia doesn’t have the resources to make any substantial concentrated push while Ukraine is in the same situation. Resumption of delivery of weapons and munitions have stalled the Russian advance while drastically increasing their personnel and equipment losses.
The deep war is still dynamic and can change very quickly. Given the backlash from the children’s hospital strike, I’m not sure if Russia is going to pause further missile strikes.
A tactical evaluation of the missile strikes that hit Kyiv suggest that air defense arrays were not fully 360 degrees around the city, so the cruise missiles went around and hit Kyiv from the essentially undefended western side.
Belarus -
See China above - joint exercise with China.
Poland –
Poland stopped the passage of trucks from Belarus to Poland last night. State Customs Committee of Belarus informs that since 3 a.m. of July 10, Poland has stopped accepting trucks from Belarus to Poland through the Kazlovichy checkpoint. It’s reported that the number of trucks in the queue grew to 600 overnight.
Kazlovichy (Kukuryki) is the only functioning cargo checkpoint on the border between Belarus and Poland.
Europe / NATO General –
Former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman is urging French Jewry to flee France, warning that “there is no time” following the far-left’s triumph in the country’s parliamentary elections.
As Breitbart News reported, French President Emmanuel Macron’s alliance with the New Popular Front delivered a victory over Marine Le Pen’s populist right, which has raised concerns about antisemitism, with many French Jews feeling increasingly uncertain about their place in France.
The unexpected shift in political power has sparked fears within the roughly 500,000-strong Jewish community, boosting worries about the potential implications for its safety and rights.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-38/
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel Defense Minister says 60% of Hamas fighters killed in the war in Gaza
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight more than 30 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israeli sites in the Golan Heights
Israeli Army Radio: 28 Israelis have been killed by Hezbollah fire in the north since the beginning of the war, including 11 civilians and 17 soldiers.
Israeli forces distribute leaflets calling on the people of Gaza City to move south
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli forces arrested at least 12 citizens from the West Bank and Jerusalem from yesterday evening until Wednesday morning.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Islamic Resistance in Iraq: We targeted the Orot Rabin power generation station in Israel with drones
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Foreign Ministers of Egypt and Jordan discuss a number of regional issues, most notably the war in the Gaza Strip, the risks of escalation in Lebanon and Syria, and the security of the Red Sea.
Jordanian Foreign Ministry: We condemn in the strongest terms Israel’s systematic targeting of shelter centers in Gaza
——— FORECAST ————————-
Continued intense fighting in Gaza City area. Otherwise, a continuation of the wack a mole tactics throughout the rest of Gaza.
Tensions remain high in the north, with Israel almost daily taking out another senior Hezbollah leader in a targeted strike with retaliatory rocket fire. Israel continues to shift military assets towards the north.
Life and summers are short - enjoy them while you can - -besides this fall and winter could get really interesting.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
An anti-terrorism brief was held on Fort Liberty (Bragg) today where they listed several Pro-Life organizations as “terrorist organizations.”
The organizations labeled by the army as terror organizations include National Right to Life and Operation Rescue.
A slide show with the presentation also included a screenshot of a license plate with “IM4IT,” which is a plate many Pro-Life citizens put on their car which implies normal citizens are terrorists if they display this plate.
The slide goes on to mention activities which these organizations participate in which include being Pro-Life, opposing Row v Wade, demonstrating and protesting (a 1st Amendment protected right), “Truth Displays,” and picketing.
OBSERVATION - This increased aggressive action(s) to radicalize the military into a further woke status and prepare them to assault citizens of the US is an abomination. Quiet frankly, the entire chain of command of the base as well as that of the contributing intelligence community should be taken out of power - IMHO with a new tour of duty bagging groceries at the Ft. Leavenworth commissary.
***
Judges have sided with Milwaukee in barring protestors permits to enter the exclusion zone around the convention center. Needless to say, this has generated anger and threats to try to force their way into the area to disrupt the RNC convention.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Many have said that Trump can be his own worst enemy, but since the debate with biden, he has sat relatively quietly on the sideline and has allowed the democrats to implode on their own over biden’s mental disorders. A ‘disciplined’ Trump on this matter is making the left go crazy, infinitely desirous for anything to deflect the public view from biden and the ongoing melt down.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Support for biden to stay in the race is still crumbling as many key democrats continue to speak out.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) said Wednesday on CNN’s ” Newsnight” that it would not hurt for President Joe Biden to take a cognitive test.
Pelosi refusing to say she supports biden and says its “his choice” to stay in the race.
Hollyweird elites calling for him to step down.
Stephanopolous notes he his mentally impaired.
And now reports that Chucky Schumer is working behind the scenes with mega democrat donors to find a suitable replacement for biden.
***
Biden’s mic gets cut while he rambles on about DEI and reporters are rushed out of the room at a recent event.
Illegal Immigration –
The House on Wednesday passed a proof-of-citizenship requirement for voter registration, a proposal Republicans have prioritized as an election-year talking point even as research shows noncitizens illegally registering and casting ballots in federal elections is exceptionally rare.
The legislation, approved largely along partisan lines but with five Democrats voting in favor, is unlikely to advance through the Democratic-led Senate.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/congress-voting-migrants/2024/07/10/id/1172004/
OBSERVATION - Dangerous assumption that is won’t fly in the senate. Here in Big Sky country, a nefarious scoundrel Tester is facing a political battle of national proportions as he tries to pivot into a Montanan ‘reddish’ politician. His re-election depends on convincing the state he has their best interests in mind. A vote against this can and will be used against his huge campaign purchase trying to define him as strong on illegal immigration. He is not alone on this.
biden as promised to veto the bill should it pass, but then the fallout will come back to bit the democrats at the polls as well. Security of the vote is a big issue and this bill is a no brainer - except for the hard leftist who are trying to finagle a sizable illegal vote in order to retain power.
China –
China has moved the Shandong carrier strike group into the Western Pacific.
Japan’s defense ministry confirmed the aircraft carrier, escorted by some of China’s newest & most advanced warships, was 500km SE of Okinawa, Japan, July 9th
1st transit east of Taiwan in 2024
The Shandong CSG is comprised of:
- CNS Shandong (17) Kuznetsov-class (Mod) Aircraft Carrier
- CNS Xi’an (106) Renhai-class guided-missile Cruiser/Destroyer
- CNS Guilin (164) Luyang lll-class (Mod) guided-missile Destroyer
- CNS Yuncheng (571) Jiangkai ll-class guided-missile
OBSERVATION - deployment continues to train and test Chinese tactics and capabilities to include regional force projection.
***
Taiwan’s defense ministry has reported a surge of Chinese military aircraft around the self-ruled island, a day after Beijing reportedly conducted military drills with an aircraft carrier in nearby waters.
The ministry on Thursday said it had detected 66 Chinese military aircraft operating around Taiwan in the past 24 hours, making it a record high this year.
“66 PLA aircraft and seven PLAN vessels operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 am (2200 GMT Wednesday) today,” the defense ministry said in its statement.
As per the ministry, 56 of the planes crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, entering Taiwan’s northern, southwestern and southeastern air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
Seven Chinese navy vessels were also detected operating around Taiwan on Wednesday, the ministry added.
The previous record of Chinese military planes around Taiwan was in May, when Beijing sent 62 military aircraft and 27 naval vessels. It came in the middle of military exercises Beijing launched after Taiwan President Lai Ching-te took office.
OBSERVATION - Chinese incursions, both by air and sea, have been gradually increasing. China has the capability to impose a blockade of Taiwan on short notice should Xi see that weakness in biden and turmoil in the US create an opportunity.
***
China has fiercely rejected accusations from Nato - whose leaders are meeting in Washington - that it’s helping maintain Russia’s war in Ukraine
Beijing called on Nato to “stop hyping up the so-called China threat”, and urged nations to reflect on the “root causes” of the war
***
A U.S. Coast Guard cutter on routine patrol in the Bering Sea came across several Chinese military ships in international waters but within the U.S. exclusive economic zone, officials said Wednesday.
The crew detected three vessels approximately 124 miles (200 kilometers) north of the Amchitka Pass in the Aleutian Islands, the Coast Guard said in a statement. A short time later, a helicopter aircrew from Coast Guard Air Station Kodiak spotted a fourth ship approximately 84 miles (135 kilometers) north of the Amukta Pass.
All four of the People’s Republic of China vessels were “transiting in international waters but still inside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone,” which extends 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from the U.S. shoreline, the statement said.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/china-naval-ships/2024/07/11/id/1172043/
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.
RUMINT –
NATO countries supplying F16s to Ukraine indicate that deliveries may be accelerated and that some have already been delivered.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 Shahed drones overnight in western Ukraine.
Ukraine struck a building materials warehouse in occupied Luhansk, setting it on fire.
Russian air defense reportedly destroyed and intercepted 5 drones overnight - two over the Bryansk region and one each over the Tambov, Tula and Moscow regions, - the Russian Ministry of Defense reported
Ocheretyne -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Voskhod village in Donetsk region.
Outlook —
Ground action continues along the whole of the eastern front. Activity in the Kharkiv region is down. Minor gains reported for Russia, but nothing tactically or strategically significant. Russia continues to waste a lot of personnel and equipment with their attacks that continue to be picked apart by Ukraine FPVs and artillery.
Watching the developments as far as F16s go. Increased rumblings of non-Ukrainian pilots being recruited to bolster the capabilities of Ukraine.
Expect significant growth in Russia threats should Ukraine start using the deep strike capabilities of British/French cruise missiles to target key airbases in Russia. Russia will threaten retaliation, but I don’t think they are quiet ready to come to blows with any NATO member at this time. Just more nuclear threats.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- Intense IAF bombing throughout much of Gaza overnight.
- US to resume shipments of 500 lb bombs to Israel.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
The U.S. will soon begin shipping to Israel the 500-pound bombs that the Biden administration had previously suspended, ending a two-month pause it had imposed in a bid to reduce civilian casualties in Gaza, U.S. officials said
Rumors of some progress on hostage/ceasefire talks but both sides are still considerably far apart.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Unusually heavy strikes reported in Gaza overnight; sounds of explosions from Gaza reported in towns across Israel.
Israeli Army Radio reports 5 rockets were fired from Rafah towards the Gaza Strip, all were intercepted. Israeli army airstrike eliminated the responsible terror cell.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Ongoing Hezbollah strikes and Israeli counter strikes along the border.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army says tanks and artillery shelled Syrian Army sites in southern Syria that had violated a 1974 disengagement agreement. According to the Israeli army, the structures erected in the Golan Heights were a violation of the Agreement on Disengagement signed in 1974 between Israel and Syria, which concluded the Yom Kippur War.”The Israeli army considers the Syrian Army responsible for everything that happens in its territory and will not allow attempts to violate the disengagement agreement,” the military adds
***
Iran has all the parts it needs for a nuclear bomb, it just needs to assemble it, warned Israeli army Deputy Chief of Staff Major General Amir Baram this week. Israeli officials reportedly are concerned Iran may exploit US election season to develop nuclear weapons
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel Forces arrested 15 Palestinians from the West Bank yesterday.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. Central Command: In the past 24 hours, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed one Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) in a Houthi controlled area of Yemen. It was determined the UAV presented an imminent threat to U.S
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Erdogan: Israel’s threats must stop to avoid deeper conflicts in the region
British Foreign Minister: We want an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip
——— FORECAST ————————-
Situation in Gaza continues to be dynamic. It does look like the recent Gaza City operations are at their peak and we should see action there pull down. Israel will then let hamas filter out of their hidy holes only to be wacked again.
Against Hezbollah, expect more Israeli targeted actions against Hezbollah (and Iranian if lucky) leadership.
Iran –
See Israel above over concerns that Iran has developed the key components necessary for a nuclear bomb.