CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
An anti-terrorism brief was held on Fort Liberty (Bragg) today where they listed several Pro-Life organizations as “terrorist organizations.”
The organizations labeled by the army as terror organizations include National Right to Life and Operation Rescue.
A slide show with the presentation also included a screenshot of a license plate with “IM4IT,” which is a plate many Pro-Life citizens put on their car which implies normal citizens are terrorists if they display this plate.
The slide goes on to mention activities which these organizations participate in which include being Pro-Life, opposing Row v Wade, demonstrating and protesting (a 1st Amendment protected right), “Truth Displays,” and picketing.
OBSERVATION - This increased aggressive action(s) to radicalize the military into a further woke status and prepare them to assault citizens of the US is an abomination. Quiet frankly, the entire chain of command of the base as well as that of the contributing intelligence community should be taken out of power - IMHO with a new tour of duty bagging groceries at the Ft. Leavenworth commissary.
***
Judges have sided with Milwaukee in barring protestors permits to enter the exclusion zone around the convention center. Needless to say, this has generated anger and threats to try to force their way into the area to disrupt the RNC convention.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Many have said that Trump can be his own worst enemy, but since the debate with biden, he has sat relatively quietly on the sideline and has allowed the democrats to implode on their own over biden’s mental disorders. A ‘disciplined’ Trump on this matter is making the left go crazy, infinitely desirous for anything to deflect the public view from biden and the ongoing melt down.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Support for biden to stay in the race is still crumbling as many key democrats continue to speak out.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) said Wednesday on CNN’s ” Newsnight” that it would not hurt for President Joe Biden to take a cognitive test.
Pelosi refusing to say she supports biden and says its “his choice” to stay in the race.
Hollyweird elites calling for him to step down.
Stephanopolous notes he his mentally impaired.
And now reports that Chucky Schumer is working behind the scenes with mega democrat donors to find a suitable replacement for biden.
***
Biden’s mic gets cut while he rambles on about DEI and reporters are rushed out of the room at a recent event.
Illegal Immigration –
The House on Wednesday passed a proof-of-citizenship requirement for voter registration, a proposal Republicans have prioritized as an election-year talking point even as research shows noncitizens illegally registering and casting ballots in federal elections is exceptionally rare.
The legislation, approved largely along partisan lines but with five Democrats voting in favor, is unlikely to advance through the Democratic-led Senate.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/congress-voting-migrants/2024/07/10/id/1172004/
OBSERVATION - Dangerous assumption that is won’t fly in the senate. Here in Big Sky country, a nefarious scoundrel Tester is facing a political battle of national proportions as he tries to pivot into a Montanan ‘reddish’ politician. His re-election depends on convincing the state he has their best interests in mind. A vote against this can and will be used against his huge campaign purchase trying to define him as strong on illegal immigration. He is not alone on this.
biden as promised to veto the bill should it pass, but then the fallout will come back to bit the democrats at the polls as well. Security of the vote is a big issue and this bill is a no brainer - except for the hard leftist who are trying to finagle a sizable illegal vote in order to retain power.
China –
China has moved the Shandong carrier strike group into the Western Pacific.
Japan’s defense ministry confirmed the aircraft carrier, escorted by some of China’s newest & most advanced warships, was 500km SE of Okinawa, Japan, July 9th
1st transit east of Taiwan in 2024
The Shandong CSG is comprised of:
- CNS Shandong (17) Kuznetsov-class (Mod) Aircraft Carrier
- CNS Xi’an (106) Renhai-class guided-missile Cruiser/Destroyer
- CNS Guilin (164) Luyang lll-class (Mod) guided-missile Destroyer
- CNS Yuncheng (571) Jiangkai ll-class guided-missile
OBSERVATION - deployment continues to train and test Chinese tactics and capabilities to include regional force projection.
***
Taiwan’s defense ministry has reported a surge of Chinese military aircraft around the self-ruled island, a day after Beijing reportedly conducted military drills with an aircraft carrier in nearby waters.
The ministry on Thursday said it had detected 66 Chinese military aircraft operating around Taiwan in the past 24 hours, making it a record high this year.
“66 PLA aircraft and seven PLAN vessels operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 am (2200 GMT Wednesday) today,” the defense ministry said in its statement.
As per the ministry, 56 of the planes crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, entering Taiwan’s northern, southwestern and southeastern air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
Seven Chinese navy vessels were also detected operating around Taiwan on Wednesday, the ministry added.
The previous record of Chinese military planes around Taiwan was in May, when Beijing sent 62 military aircraft and 27 naval vessels. It came in the middle of military exercises Beijing launched after Taiwan President Lai Ching-te took office.
OBSERVATION - Chinese incursions, both by air and sea, have been gradually increasing. China has the capability to impose a blockade of Taiwan on short notice should Xi see that weakness in biden and turmoil in the US create an opportunity.
***
China has fiercely rejected accusations from Nato - whose leaders are meeting in Washington - that it’s helping maintain Russia’s war in Ukraine
Beijing called on Nato to “stop hyping up the so-called China threat”, and urged nations to reflect on the “root causes” of the war
***
A U.S. Coast Guard cutter on routine patrol in the Bering Sea came across several Chinese military ships in international waters but within the U.S. exclusive economic zone, officials said Wednesday.
The crew detected three vessels approximately 124 miles (200 kilometers) north of the Amchitka Pass in the Aleutian Islands, the Coast Guard said in a statement. A short time later, a helicopter aircrew from Coast Guard Air Station Kodiak spotted a fourth ship approximately 84 miles (135 kilometers) north of the Amukta Pass.
All four of the People’s Republic of China vessels were “transiting in international waters but still inside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone,” which extends 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from the U.S. shoreline, the statement said.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/china-naval-ships/2024/07/11/id/1172043/
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.
RUMINT –
NATO countries supplying F16s to Ukraine indicate that deliveries may be accelerated and that some have already been delivered.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 Shahed drones overnight in western Ukraine.
Ukraine struck a building materials warehouse in occupied Luhansk, setting it on fire.
Russian air defense reportedly destroyed and intercepted 5 drones overnight - two over the Bryansk region and one each over the Tambov, Tula and Moscow regions, - the Russian Ministry of Defense reported
Ocheretyne -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Voskhod village in Donetsk region.
Outlook —
Ground action continues along the whole of the eastern front. Activity in the Kharkiv region is down. Minor gains reported for Russia, but nothing tactically or strategically significant. Russia continues to waste a lot of personnel and equipment with their attacks that continue to be picked apart by Ukraine FPVs and artillery.
Watching the developments as far as F16s go. Increased rumblings of non-Ukrainian pilots being recruited to bolster the capabilities of Ukraine.
Expect significant growth in Russia threats should Ukraine start using the deep strike capabilities of British/French cruise missiles to target key airbases in Russia. Russia will threaten retaliation, but I don’t think they are quiet ready to come to blows with any NATO member at this time. Just more nuclear threats.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- Intense IAF bombing throughout much of Gaza overnight.
- US to resume shipments of 500 lb bombs to Israel.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
The U.S. will soon begin shipping to Israel the 500-pound bombs that the Biden administration had previously suspended, ending a two-month pause it had imposed in a bid to reduce civilian casualties in Gaza, U.S. officials said
Rumors of some progress on hostage/ceasefire talks but both sides are still considerably far apart.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Unusually heavy strikes reported in Gaza overnight; sounds of explosions from Gaza reported in towns across Israel.
Israeli Army Radio reports 5 rockets were fired from Rafah towards the Gaza Strip, all were intercepted. Israeli army airstrike eliminated the responsible terror cell.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Ongoing Hezbollah strikes and Israeli counter strikes along the border.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army says tanks and artillery shelled Syrian Army sites in southern Syria that had violated a 1974 disengagement agreement. According to the Israeli army, the structures erected in the Golan Heights were a violation of the Agreement on Disengagement signed in 1974 between Israel and Syria, which concluded the Yom Kippur War.”The Israeli army considers the Syrian Army responsible for everything that happens in its territory and will not allow attempts to violate the disengagement agreement,” the military adds
***
Iran has all the parts it needs for a nuclear bomb, it just needs to assemble it, warned Israeli army Deputy Chief of Staff Major General Amir Baram this week. Israeli officials reportedly are concerned Iran may exploit US election season to develop nuclear weapons
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel Forces arrested 15 Palestinians from the West Bank yesterday.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. Central Command: In the past 24 hours, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed one Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) in a Houthi controlled area of Yemen. It was determined the UAV presented an imminent threat to U.S
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Erdogan: Israel’s threats must stop to avoid deeper conflicts in the region
British Foreign Minister: We want an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip
——— FORECAST ————————-
Situation in Gaza continues to be dynamic. It does look like the recent Gaza City operations are at their peak and we should see action there pull down. Israel will then let hamas filter out of their hidy holes only to be wacked again.
Against Hezbollah, expect more Israeli targeted actions against Hezbollah (and Iranian if lucky) leadership.
Iran –
See Israel above over concerns that Iran has developed the key components necessary for a nuclear bomb.
Please see the first item in this post. It’s about the government labeling pro-life organizations as terror groups.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?page=649#649
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The creators of the so called anti-terrorisom briefing at Ft Liberty (Bragg) have have been canceled, reportedly for failing to get approval of the briefing and slides. Typical military response to CYA. Probably DEI/Woke civilians, should be given tooth brushes and tasked to clean all the toilets on post for starters.
This is likely just the tip of the iceberg, as other similar training flying under the radar is probably going on - all to desensitize soldiers to support anti-constitutional actions when/if ordered to do so.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US just announced plans to place new long-range weapons in its European ally Germany in 2026.
The planned deployment of new weapons systems to Germany follows the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and comes as NATO learns key lessons from the war in Ukraine, one being the value of ground-launched long-range strike options.
The US and Germany released a statement on Wednesday on the coming “episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026, as part of planning for enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-says-going-put-long-212122932.html
OBSERVATION - 2026 is a long ways away with numerous bumps to get over before any full deployment. Russia of course is not pleased.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
democrats trying to pick up the piece following the NATO summit and the big boy press conference
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden’s gaff-a-rama continued yesterday with him announcing the president of Ukraine as “President Putin.”
Then he did his stand up routine - “big boy” press conference, only arriving 50 minutes late. There he announced that he had selected Trump to be his VP. Biden had difficulty keeping a train of thought and expressing himself coherently.
Many commentators suggest that the presser wasn’t a crash and burn, while others related it to being worse than the debate. Biden appears adamant that he is not withdrawing from the race.
Meanwhile, rumblings that 0bama and pelosi are maneuvering to get him out and get a replacement selected.
Three new House Democrats called for President Joe Biden to give up his shot at reelection on Thursday night. Rep. Jim Himes from Connecticut, California Democrat Rep. Scott Peters and Rep. Eric Sorensen, an Illinois all called for him to step down. The three new lawmakers bring the total of House Democrats to call for Biden’s exit to seven on Thursday, with 16 House Democrats in total and one Democratic senator.
OBSERVATION - SMH, biden is not getting the cover from the press on his mental/physical condition he has for the past 3.5 years. The press sensing blood and the powers that be are allowing biden to continue to shoot himself in the foot in front of the american people, in addition to foreign leaders.
democrats are running out of options as biden et al appear to be digging in for a fight.
- continue the expose of his medical condition in hopes that he changes his mind with enough time before the convention for an alternative to have a chance.
- force the issue via 25th amendment actions and face the potential blow up of a political civil war in the party
- attempt some maneuvering for an open convention and nominate someone else in his place.
It’s not only his conditions and bad polling, but it is crossing over into the congressional elections. Dems already faced a difficult fight to maintain what they currently have. Now support is shifting in some large part to biden’s mental issues. Its one thing to lose a presidential election as long as control of the congress is maintained. lose both and things will be very bad for democrats over the next 4 years.
That still doesn’t solve who to replace him with. Currently harris has the political backing and financial support. mike 0bama has reiterated he doesn’t want the job, newscum is circling around like a shark looking for an opening and other potential names are staying back so as not to torpedo their political careers in a foolish attempt to save the elections for the party.
Illegal Immigration –
Senate Democrats blocked the passage of the SAVE Act, a bill crucial for enhancing the integrity of federal elections by mandating proof of citizenship.
Russia -
*****
Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate leading figures in the European defense industrial base (DIB), likely as part of Russian efforts to disrupt and deter Western aid to Ukraine and Russia’s wider efforts to destabilize NATO members. ISW
Russia issued a stern warning to the US and in particular Germany regarding the announced placement of intermediate ranged missile systems in Germany. Germany to now be in cross hairs of the Kremlin for any future conflict.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.
RUMINT –
Several thousand people have registered to join the Ukrainian legion in Poland, according to the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Sikorski announced that Poland is starting to prepare the first Ukrainian brigade made up of volunteers living in Poland. Many of them want to serve but insist on receiving proper training and equipment before being sent into combat.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Yesterday evening and overnight Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 11 of 19 Shahed drones, launched by Russia.
The United States and Ukraine announced that they are preparing a military response to russia’s strike on Okhmatdyt hospital, Biden’s adviser Sullivan said.
The eastern front remained relatively static, with no signifiant gains by either side. Ukraine is increasing pressure in the Kharkiv sector while Russia presses the Ocheretyne axis.
Outlook —
Red flags are popping up with the joint announcement that the US is actively planning with Ukraine to retaliate against the children’s hospital strike. Besides rhetoric, that carries the potential for a physical escalation in the scope of the war. Its one thing to allow Ukraine to use the weapons supplied to their fullest advantage. Its another to announce actual joint planning of an attack.
The biggest potential target for such an attack are the airbases that have most of the Russian jets used in the Ukraine operation. OSINT sources using open source imagery note that Russia has taken no significant precautions in parking these aircraft, such as using revetments, etc, but just park them side by side on the aprons. Sitting ducks.
Russian strategic bombers are too deep to be reached by US weapons available to Ukraine IIRC.
Ukraine has been devastating Russian S400 batteries with the ATACMS equipped with bomblets. The S400s cannot defend against the missiles and its radar cannot see the bomblets, with a spread that usually catches the radar, command rig and some of the missile TELs for destruction. Some estimates I’ve seen have over 25% of the systems being destroyed, with remaining ones spread thinner and thinner.
Poland –
Poland announces it will increase the number of soldiers on the border with Belarus to 17,000.
OBSERVATION - These troops will primarily be dealing with Belarus’ aggressive support to middle eastern ‘migrants’ trying to force their way into Poland and the rest of europe and not so much a Belarus military threat.
Europe / NATO General –
Allied Supreme Commander Says NATO Ready to Fight Russia - NATO is now focused on deterring Russia and prepared for high-intensity conflict if necessary.
Gen. Christopher Cavoli stated that NATO has developed concrete operational plans to defend specific alliance areas.
- NATO has more than 300,000 troops at high readiness, with extensive exercises like Steadfast Defender involving 90,000 troops.
- Allies are contributing nearly their entire military force structure to NATO’s plans, with a focus on readiness and logistics.
- Lessons from the war in Ukraine are being integrated into NATO’s future doctrine and readiness checks.
OBSERVATION - Europe continues preparations for eventual war with Russia.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- IDF partial pull out from Gaza City
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli forces withdrew from some Gaza City districts overnight after a fierce, week-long military offensive.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army says it struck a Syrian military post in southern Syria’s Tasil overnight, in response to a rocket attack. The rocket fired late Thursday struck an open area in the southern Golan Heights, causing no injuries
——— FORECAST ————————-
Continued search and destroy operations in Gaza.
Continued pin point targeting of Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon
Hostage / cease fire negations to continue.
Misc of Note –
Initial NOAA reports of a strengthening La Nina with the potential for full on conditions as early as August. Such could provide a trigger to a more aggressive hurricane season in addition to weather changes across the country.