CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The creators of the so called anti-terrorisom briefing at Ft Liberty (Bragg) have have been canceled, reportedly for failing to get approval of the briefing and slides. Typical military response to CYA. Probably DEI/Woke civilians, should be given tooth brushes and tasked to clean all the toilets on post for starters.
This is likely just the tip of the iceberg, as other similar training flying under the radar is probably going on - all to desensitize soldiers to support anti-constitutional actions when/if ordered to do so.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US just announced plans to place new long-range weapons in its European ally Germany in 2026.
The planned deployment of new weapons systems to Germany follows the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and comes as NATO learns key lessons from the war in Ukraine, one being the value of ground-launched long-range strike options.
The US and Germany released a statement on Wednesday on the coming “episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026, as part of planning for enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-says-going-put-long-212122932.html
OBSERVATION - 2026 is a long ways away with numerous bumps to get over before any full deployment. Russia of course is not pleased.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
democrats trying to pick up the piece following the NATO summit and the big boy press conference
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden’s gaff-a-rama continued yesterday with him announcing the president of Ukraine as “President Putin.”
Then he did his stand up routine - “big boy” press conference, only arriving 50 minutes late. There he announced that he had selected Trump to be his VP. Biden had difficulty keeping a train of thought and expressing himself coherently.
Many commentators suggest that the presser wasn’t a crash and burn, while others related it to being worse than the debate. Biden appears adamant that he is not withdrawing from the race.
Meanwhile, rumblings that 0bama and pelosi are maneuvering to get him out and get a replacement selected.
Three new House Democrats called for President Joe Biden to give up his shot at reelection on Thursday night. Rep. Jim Himes from Connecticut, California Democrat Rep. Scott Peters and Rep. Eric Sorensen, an Illinois all called for him to step down. The three new lawmakers bring the total of House Democrats to call for Biden’s exit to seven on Thursday, with 16 House Democrats in total and one Democratic senator.
OBSERVATION - SMH, biden is not getting the cover from the press on his mental/physical condition he has for the past 3.5 years. The press sensing blood and the powers that be are allowing biden to continue to shoot himself in the foot in front of the american people, in addition to foreign leaders.
democrats are running out of options as biden et al appear to be digging in for a fight.
- continue the expose of his medical condition in hopes that he changes his mind with enough time before the convention for an alternative to have a chance.
- force the issue via 25th amendment actions and face the potential blow up of a political civil war in the party
- attempt some maneuvering for an open convention and nominate someone else in his place.
It’s not only his conditions and bad polling, but it is crossing over into the congressional elections. Dems already faced a difficult fight to maintain what they currently have. Now support is shifting in some large part to biden’s mental issues. Its one thing to lose a presidential election as long as control of the congress is maintained. lose both and things will be very bad for democrats over the next 4 years.
That still doesn’t solve who to replace him with. Currently harris has the political backing and financial support. mike 0bama has reiterated he doesn’t want the job, newscum is circling around like a shark looking for an opening and other potential names are staying back so as not to torpedo their political careers in a foolish attempt to save the elections for the party.
Illegal Immigration –
Senate Democrats blocked the passage of the SAVE Act, a bill crucial for enhancing the integrity of federal elections by mandating proof of citizenship.
Russia -
*****
Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate leading figures in the European defense industrial base (DIB), likely as part of Russian efforts to disrupt and deter Western aid to Ukraine and Russia’s wider efforts to destabilize NATO members. ISW
Russia issued a stern warning to the US and in particular Germany regarding the announced placement of intermediate ranged missile systems in Germany. Germany to now be in cross hairs of the Kremlin for any future conflict.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.
RUMINT –
Several thousand people have registered to join the Ukrainian legion in Poland, according to the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Sikorski announced that Poland is starting to prepare the first Ukrainian brigade made up of volunteers living in Poland. Many of them want to serve but insist on receiving proper training and equipment before being sent into combat.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Yesterday evening and overnight Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 11 of 19 Shahed drones, launched by Russia.
The United States and Ukraine announced that they are preparing a military response to russia’s strike on Okhmatdyt hospital, Biden’s adviser Sullivan said.
The eastern front remained relatively static, with no signifiant gains by either side. Ukraine is increasing pressure in the Kharkiv sector while Russia presses the Ocheretyne axis.
Outlook —
Red flags are popping up with the joint announcement that the US is actively planning with Ukraine to retaliate against the children’s hospital strike. Besides rhetoric, that carries the potential for a physical escalation in the scope of the war. Its one thing to allow Ukraine to use the weapons supplied to their fullest advantage. Its another to announce actual joint planning of an attack.
The biggest potential target for such an attack are the airbases that have most of the Russian jets used in the Ukraine operation. OSINT sources using open source imagery note that Russia has taken no significant precautions in parking these aircraft, such as using revetments, etc, but just park them side by side on the aprons. Sitting ducks.
Russian strategic bombers are too deep to be reached by US weapons available to Ukraine IIRC.
Ukraine has been devastating Russian S400 batteries with the ATACMS equipped with bomblets. The S400s cannot defend against the missiles and its radar cannot see the bomblets, with a spread that usually catches the radar, command rig and some of the missile TELs for destruction. Some estimates I’ve seen have over 25% of the systems being destroyed, with remaining ones spread thinner and thinner.
Poland –
Poland announces it will increase the number of soldiers on the border with Belarus to 17,000.
OBSERVATION - These troops will primarily be dealing with Belarus’ aggressive support to middle eastern ‘migrants’ trying to force their way into Poland and the rest of europe and not so much a Belarus military threat.
Europe / NATO General –
Allied Supreme Commander Says NATO Ready to Fight Russia - NATO is now focused on deterring Russia and prepared for high-intensity conflict if necessary.
Gen. Christopher Cavoli stated that NATO has developed concrete operational plans to defend specific alliance areas.
- NATO has more than 300,000 troops at high readiness, with extensive exercises like Steadfast Defender involving 90,000 troops.
- Allies are contributing nearly their entire military force structure to NATO’s plans, with a focus on readiness and logistics.
- Lessons from the war in Ukraine are being integrated into NATO’s future doctrine and readiness checks.
OBSERVATION - Europe continues preparations for eventual war with Russia.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- IDF partial pull out from Gaza City
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli forces withdrew from some Gaza City districts overnight after a fierce, week-long military offensive.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army says it struck a Syrian military post in southern Syria’s Tasil overnight, in response to a rocket attack. The rocket fired late Thursday struck an open area in the southern Golan Heights, causing no injuries
——— FORECAST ————————-
Continued search and destroy operations in Gaza.
Continued pin point targeting of Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon
Hostage / cease fire negations to continue.
Misc of Note –
Initial NOAA reports of a strengthening La Nina with the potential for full on conditions as early as August. Such could provide a trigger to a more aggressive hurricane season in addition to weather changes across the country.
Wish we lived in a time when a free press would look into this - but of course the MSM covers for the corruipt, woke and horrible.
Wish we lived in a time when a free press would look into this - but of course the MSM covers for the corrupt, woke and horrible.
Globalism / Great Reset –
(FO) Reps. John Curtis (R-UT) and Scott Peters (D-CA) introduced H.R. 8957, the Providing Reliable, Objective, Verifiable Emissions Intensity and Transparency (PROVE IT) Act, which would require the Department of Energy (DOE) to conduct a study on the carbon intensity of U.S. and foreign-made products.
Curtis said, “It’s a study” and not the first step in implementing a carbon tax, in response to critics of the bill who say the study is setting up an eventual carbon tax and could create a trade war with Europe.
OBSERVATION - Camel’s nose under the tent.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
RNC convention next week. Protests/riots are being planned, just how large and violent is not known. Much may depend on the controversy over biden remaining in the race or not. My best estimate is that some of the protests will go riot mode in at least a limited extent, initially focused on breaching the police barriers protecting the convention center and if failing there, general mayhem and destruction in the surrounding business district.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
(FO) During a security summit yesterday, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas called on industry and government partners to work together to prevent future threats after the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards expired in 2023.
Mayorkas said two “close call” incidents were prevented this year when law enforcement intervened in the sale of high-risk chemicals to an individual fraudulently claiming to be a university researcher, and a chemical company prevented the sale of acetylene to a man who attacked a New Year’s Eve celebration in Rochester, NY.
OBSERVATION - This is very likely the tip of the iceberg.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.0% from 12 months earlier and down 0.1%, on a seasonally-adjusted basis from May. The last time CPI increased less than three percent was in March of 2021 (2.6%).
At 3.0%, inflation is also more than twice the 1.4% increase registered when former President Donald Trump left office in January of 2021 and December of 2020.
In June of this year, the seasonally-adjusted, month-to-month increase in the so-called “core” CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% from May and 3.3% from the increase in June of 2023.
Indexes which increased from May to June include utility gas service (2.4%,), food (+0.2%), shelter (+0.2%), and medical care services (+0.2%). The indexes for energy (-2.0%), used cars and trucks (-1.5%), and transportation services (-0.5%) were among those that decreased over the month.
Compared to 12 months earlier, the indexes for transportation services (+9.4%) and shelter (5.2%) posted the largest increases, while those for used cars and truck (-10.1%) and gasoline (-2.5%) recorded the greatest declines.
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/june-marks-39th-straight-month-inflation-least-three-percent
OBSERVATION - Damage has been done and upward pressures are gaining.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US has opened an ‘Aegis Ashore’ site, a ballistic missile interceptor facility, strategically located in northern Poland overlooking the continent and the Baltic Sea.
It is the second base of its kind within a wider Nato air defence network. Its sister opened in 2016 and is situated in the town of Deveselu, southern Romania, approximately 1,880 kilometres away.
Nato Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) manages this so-called “missile shield” network that protects European populations, territory and forces against its namesake threat. First conceived at the Lisbon Summit in 2010, the BMD shield also comprises US Navy destroyers out of Spain and early warning radar in Kurecik, South Eastern Türkiye.
According to Nato, Aegis Ashore are purely defensive; around 200 military personnel are stationed at the two interceptor sites in Poland and Romania.
OBSERVATION - This system caused Russia fits when first announced years ago. What isn’t stated is the number (if any ) interceptors have been installed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Speculation is growing over who Trump will select as his VP. Many thought he would have announced at the debate. Now with the democrats imploding over biden’s dementia, his campaign is re-evalating his choice with the evolving campaign environment. With the convention starting next week, the clock is running down.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden hit the campaign circuit with vengeance yesterday, still trying to shake the image of a demented frail old man. On social media, the resurgence of biden has filled multiple bandwidths of flow - all trying to squelch the sinking of his campaign ship.
This attempt to regain status is not gaining traction. Democrat coffers - the real deciding point for them you know - are hurting for lack of contributions. More so, the big $$$$ dem donors are freezing their contributions until biden is out. More in congress , media and holly weird are calling for a replacement.
RUMORS are that things behind the curtail are getting outright nasty. Allegation that Jill Biden is running the country right now. Joe Biden is sleeping up to 16 hrs. per day. The Biden and Obama family rift has now blown fully open and any aides loyal to Obama are going to get canned. Obama is going to try and force Joe out. Obama is meeting privately with power players to get them to withdraw funding. Hollywood will begin to turn on Biden via Obama is telling them.
Now increasing calls for an open DNC convention - with the release of all pledged delegates. democrats continue to slog towards a massive dumpster fire of their own making.
Another big question is how long can biden maintain this campaign schedule? Keeping him hopped up on drugs in his state is not good. As we saw in 2020, he lacked the energy to maintain any vigorous campaign schedule.
Illegal Immigration –
The Mayor of Springfield, Ohio, a town with a population of 58,082 just announced that his city has been conquered by over 20,000 Haitian illegals that the Biden regime brought in
“We do not have the capacity to sustain that, it’s taxing our infrastructure, it’s taxing public safety, it’s taxing our schools, it’s taxing healthcare, and taxing our housing.”
The numbers of illegals being placed in the city have grown by these numbers over the past four years. Most of the costs have fallen on the city as the NGO/501c3 organization(s) that are supposed to pay these costs have not. One such group, called National Youth Advocate Project has been awarded $292 million by the Dept of Health and Human Services for assistance to unaccompanied illegal alien children in Ohio since 2021. The organization’s 2022 IRS form 990 says that the CEO, Marvena Twigg (social worker), earned $1.27 million that year.
Not sure if this is the organization that is suppose to be footing the bill in Springfield, (some on the interwebs are saying yes) but depicts the cash cow biden’s illegal programs have become.
Rumors here in the Redoubt that similar ‘placement’ is occurring in smaller towns here as well. And where I live I’ve noticed an up tick in spanish speaking individuals/families.
Russia -
*****
Russian leaders are laughing about biden’s display of dementia at the NATO summit. Saying what the NATO leaders are reluctant to say in the open.
Economic Impact –
Russia is now taxing their rich at a much higher rate in order to defray war costs.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.
RUMINT –
Continued back and forth on how many and when F16s will officially be in Ukraine’s and usable for the war effort.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
4 Shehed drones were shot down overnight. Other Russian drones/missiles targeted Dniper, and Sloviansk in E Ukraine.
Ukraine missiles hit Nova Kakhovka yesterday setting off multiple secondary explosions.
Air defense systems destroyed 4 drones over the Rostov, Belgorod and Kursk regions - Russian Ministry of Defense
Russian pressing the attack in the Ocheretyne region, but no reported gains.
Outlook —
A lot of the war news out of Ukraine is being buried by US presidential election news. Effectively, the Russian offensive is stalled. It his also facing an increasing problem in meeting the logistical needs of the forces. One of the big ones is adequate supplies of clean drinking water. Temps are in the upper 90s to 100s and Ukraine drones continue to hammer rear areas nailing every soft sided supply vehicle in their sights. This has forced Russian front line soldiers to rely on likely contaminated water sources - with unconfirmed reports of associated medical problems incapacitating some forces.
Ukraine and Russia main front is what I’ve been calling the ‘deep war’ - drone and missile strikes on deep infrastructure targets. Tactics continue to evolve. Ukraine has had better success lately, though Russia has bigger bombs/missiles. This aspect of the war can change very quickly.
One component is the rumored joint efforts of the US and Ukraine to respond to Russia’s strike on the Children’s cancer hospital in Kyiv. The extent and nature of the ‘response’ could shape future fighting in a significant manner.
Poland –
Polish border guards and soldiers fired on middle eastern and african migrants trying to force their way into Poland from Belarus over the past several days.
Europe / NATO General –
Finland has passed Europe’s toughest border bill. The bill makes it possible to turn illegal migrants back at the border without registering their asylum request if they are recognized as part of a hybrid warfare operation
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- IDF takes out Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of Hamas’s Khan Yunis Brigade.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Palestinian Media has confirmed the death of Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of Hamas’s Khan Yunis Brigade in the Southern Gaza Strip, who was successfully eliminated by an Israeli airstrike.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli fighter jets struck a building used by Hezbollah, an observation post, and other infrastructure in southern Lebanon’s Kafr Kila, Taybe and Khiam this evening, the Israeli army says.
Hezbollah meanwhile announces the deaths of two members killed in recent Israel strikes in Lebanon, bringing the terror group’s toll amid the war to at least 366.
Air defenses intercepted a missile launched from Lebanon towards Metulla.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US Central Command: Three Houthi drones were destroyed in Yemen overnight.
Houthi military spokesman: We targeted a ship in the Red Sea and then Bab al-Mandab with missiles and drones
——— FORECAST ————————-
Action levels in Gaza and Lebanon have gone down over the past few days.
The pull out of Israel’s 99th Division from Gaza is likely the first step in their redeployment to the Lebanon front. As I notes over a week ago, two of the three divisions operating in Gaza are expected to be redeployed to the north.
The Israeli military’s 162nd Division will continue to fight in the Rafah area and prepared to execute raids in the rest of the country in the interim.
Multiple accounts of the progress of the hostage/ceasefire talks are floating out there, with both sides saying the other is creating obstructions. Don’t hold your breaths. Hamas has lost most of the leverage it initially had with the hostages as Israel has refused to play the game with their rules.
Immediate future, apart from sudden Israeli raids, I suspect the IDF is pouring over recent intel collected in Gaza and is intent on narrowing down where Sindwar and the hostages may be at. At this stage, Israel’s claim that the Rafah operations would yield more hostages has not fully borne fruit and the hostage’s families are getting restless. Israel needs to score some rescues or face a crisis of lowered support for continued fighting over making any kind of hostage deal.
Syria -
I don’t note much in this lately as the key news is associated with Israel and the Gaza war spinoff. Much is just a continuation of the following
- Assad forces continue to attack Idlib region, anti assad forces counter attack
- Turkey attacks Kurds and anyone who gets in their way
- Anti-Assad and pro assad forces attack Turks
- ISIS attacks everyone
- US/Collation forces hit Iranian proxy militias and ISIS.
And in this mess well over 0ne million Syrians have been killed and dozens of cities have been leveled.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Turkey –
(FO) Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced at the NATO summit that he would veto any NATO cooperation or partnership with Israel until peace in Palestine was restored. He also said he intends to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a China-run security and economic bloc. Russian Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said Turkey’s membership in NATO creates a conflict of interest with the SCO’s founding documents and would delay the full accession.
OBSERVATION - Edrogan continues to bounce all over the geopolitical sphere. For some dumb reason the US continues to store nuclear warheads in that country.