Replies

Globalism / Great Reset –

(FO) Reps. John Curtis (R-UT) and Scott Peters (D-CA) introduced H.R. 8957, the Providing Reliable, Objective, Verifiable Emissions Intensity and Transparency (PROVE IT) Act, which would require the Department of Energy (DOE) to conduct a study on the carbon intensity of U.S. and foreign-made products.

Curtis said, “It’s a study” and not the first step in implementing a carbon tax, in response to critics of the bill who say the study is setting up an eventual carbon tax and could create a trade war with Europe.

OBSERVATION - Camel’s nose under the tent.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

RNC convention next week. Protests/riots are being planned, just how large and violent is not known. Much may depend on the controversy over biden remaining in the race or not. My best estimate is that some of the protests will go riot mode in at least a limited extent, initially focused on breaching the police barriers protecting the convention center and if failing there, general mayhem and destruction in the surrounding business district.

Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

(FO) During a security summit yesterday, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas called on industry and government partners to work together to prevent future threats after the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards expired in 2023.

Mayorkas said two “close call” incidents were prevented this year when law enforcement intervened in the sale of high-risk chemicals to an individual fraudulently claiming to be a university researcher, and a chemical company prevented the sale of acetylene to a man who attacked a New Year’s Eve celebration in Rochester, NY.

OBSERVATION - This is very likely the tip of the iceberg.

Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024

In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.0% from 12 months earlier and down 0.1%, on a seasonally-adjusted basis from May. The last time CPI increased less than three percent was in March of 2021 (2.6%).
At 3.0%, inflation is also more than twice the 1.4% increase registered when former President Donald Trump left office in January of 2021 and December of 2020.

In June of this year, the seasonally-adjusted, month-to-month increase in the so-called “core” CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% from May and 3.3% from the increase in June of 2023.

Indexes which increased from May to June include utility gas service (2.4%,), food (+0.2%), shelter (+0.2%), and medical care services (+0.2%). The indexes for energy (-2.0%), used cars and trucks (-1.5%), and transportation services (-0.5%) were among those that decreased over the month.

Compared to 12 months earlier, the indexes for transportation services (+9.4%) and shelter (5.2%) posted the largest increases, while those for used cars and truck (-10.1%) and gasoline (-2.5%) recorded the greatest declines.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/june-marks-39th-straight-month-inflation-least-three-percent

OBSERVATION - Damage has been done and upward pressures are gaining.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The US has opened an ‘Aegis Ashore’ site, a ballistic missile interceptor facility, strategically located in northern Poland overlooking the continent and the Baltic Sea.

It is the second base of its kind within a wider Nato air defence network. Its sister opened in 2016 and is situated in the town of Deveselu, southern Romania, approximately 1,880 kilometres away.

Nato Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) manages this so-called “missile shield” network that protects European populations, territory and forces against its namesake threat. First conceived at the Lisbon Summit in 2010, the BMD shield also comprises US Navy destroyers out of Spain and early warning radar in Kurecik, South Eastern Türkiye.

According to Nato, Aegis Ashore are purely defensive; around 200 military personnel are stationed at the two interceptor sites in Poland and Romania.

OBSERVATION - This system caused Russia fits when first announced years ago. What isn’t stated is the number (if any ) interceptors have been installed.

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Speculation is growing over who Trump will select as his VP. Many thought he would have announced at the debate. Now with the democrats imploding over biden’s dementia, his campaign is re-evalating his choice with the evolving campaign environment. With the convention starting next week, the clock is running down.

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden hit the campaign circuit with vengeance yesterday, still trying to shake the image of a demented frail old man. On social media, the resurgence of biden has filled multiple bandwidths of flow - all trying to squelch the sinking of his campaign ship.

This attempt to regain status is not gaining traction. Democrat coffers - the real deciding point for them you know - are hurting for lack of contributions. More so, the big $$$$ dem donors are freezing their contributions until biden is out. More in congress , media and holly weird are calling for a replacement.

RUMORS are that things behind the curtail are getting outright nasty. Allegation that Jill Biden is running the country right now. Joe Biden is sleeping up to 16 hrs. per day. The Biden and Obama family rift has now blown fully open and any aides loyal to Obama are going to get canned. Obama is going to try and force Joe out. Obama is meeting privately with power players to get them to withdraw funding. Hollywood will begin to turn on Biden via Obama is telling them.

Now increasing calls for an open DNC convention - with the release of all pledged delegates. democrats continue to slog towards a massive dumpster fire of their own making.

Another big question is how long can biden maintain this campaign schedule? Keeping him hopped up on drugs in his state is not good. As we saw in 2020, he lacked the energy to maintain any vigorous campaign schedule.

Illegal Immigration –

The Mayor of Springfield, Ohio, a town with a population of 58,082 just announced that his city has been conquered by over 20,000 Haitian illegals that the Biden regime brought in

“We do not have the capacity to sustain that, it’s taxing our infrastructure, it’s taxing public safety, it’s taxing our schools, it’s taxing healthcare, and taxing our housing.”

The numbers of illegals being placed in the city have grown by these numbers over the past four years. Most of the costs have fallen on the city as the NGO/501c3 organization(s) that are supposed to pay these costs have not. One such group, called National Youth Advocate Project has been awarded $292 million by the Dept of Health and Human Services for assistance to unaccompanied illegal alien children in Ohio since 2021. The organization’s 2022 IRS form 990 says that the CEO, Marvena Twigg (social worker), earned $1.27 million that year.

Not sure if this is the organization that is suppose to be footing the bill in Springfield, (some on the interwebs are saying yes) but depicts the cash cow biden’s illegal programs have become.

Rumors here in the Redoubt that similar ‘placement’ is occurring in smaller towns here as well. And where I live I’ve noticed an up tick in spanish speaking individuals/families.

Russia -

*****

Russian leaders are laughing about biden’s display of dementia at the NATO summit. Saying what the NATO leaders are reluctant to say in the open.

Economic Impact –

Russia is now taxing their rich at a much higher rate in order to defray war costs.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.

RUMINT –

Continued back and forth on how many and when F16s will officially be in Ukraine’s and usable for the war effort.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

4 Shehed drones were shot down overnight. Other Russian drones/missiles targeted Dniper, and Sloviansk in E Ukraine.

Ukraine missiles hit Nova Kakhovka yesterday setting off multiple secondary explosions.

Air defense systems destroyed 4 drones over the Rostov, Belgorod and Kursk regions - Russian Ministry of Defense

Russian pressing the attack in the Ocheretyne region, but no reported gains.

Outlook —

A lot of the war news out of Ukraine is being buried by US presidential election news. Effectively, the Russian offensive is stalled. It his also facing an increasing problem in meeting the logistical needs of the forces. One of the big ones is adequate supplies of clean drinking water. Temps are in the upper 90s to 100s and Ukraine drones continue to hammer rear areas nailing every soft sided supply vehicle in their sights. This has forced Russian front line soldiers to rely on likely contaminated water sources - with unconfirmed reports of associated medical problems incapacitating some forces.

Ukraine and Russia main front is what I’ve been calling the ‘deep war’ - drone and missile strikes on deep infrastructure targets. Tactics continue to evolve. Ukraine has had better success lately, though Russia has bigger bombs/missiles. This aspect of the war can change very quickly.
One component is the rumored joint efforts of the US and Ukraine to respond to Russia’s strike on the Children’s cancer hospital in Kyiv. The extent and nature of the ‘response’ could shape future fighting in a significant manner.

Poland –

Polish border guards and soldiers fired on middle eastern and african migrants trying to force their way into Poland from Belarus over the past several days.

Europe / NATO General –

Finland has passed Europe’s toughest border bill. The bill makes it possible to turn illegal migrants back at the border without registering their asylum request if they are recognized as part of a hybrid warfare operation

ISRAEL –

July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.

Key overnight developments -

- IDF takes out Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of Hamas’s Khan Yunis Brigade.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Palestinian Media has confirmed the death of Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of Hamas’s Khan Yunis Brigade in the Southern Gaza Strip, who was successfully eliminated by an Israeli airstrike.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli fighter jets struck a building used by Hezbollah, an observation post, and other infrastructure in southern Lebanon’s Kafr Kila, Taybe and Khiam this evening, the Israeli army says.
Hezbollah meanwhile announces the deaths of two members killed in recent Israel strikes in Lebanon, bringing the terror group’s toll amid the war to at least 366.

Air defenses intercepted a missile launched from Lebanon towards Metulla.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

US Central Command: Three Houthi drones were destroyed in Yemen overnight.

Houthi military spokesman: We targeted a ship in the Red Sea and then Bab al-Mandab with missiles and drones

——— FORECAST ————————-

Action levels in Gaza and Lebanon have gone down over the past few days.

The pull out of Israel’s 99th Division from Gaza is likely the first step in their redeployment to the Lebanon front. As I notes over a week ago, two of the three divisions operating in Gaza are expected to be redeployed to the north.

The Israeli military’s 162nd Division will continue to fight in the Rafah area and prepared to execute raids in the rest of the country in the interim.

Multiple accounts of the progress of the hostage/ceasefire talks are floating out there, with both sides saying the other is creating obstructions. Don’t hold your breaths. Hamas has lost most of the leverage it initially had with the hostages as Israel has refused to play the game with their rules.

Immediate future, apart from sudden Israeli raids, I suspect the IDF is pouring over recent intel collected in Gaza and is intent on narrowing down where Sindwar and the hostages may be at. At this stage, Israel’s claim that the Rafah operations would yield more hostages has not fully borne fruit and the hostage’s families are getting restless. Israel needs to score some rescues or face a crisis of lowered support for continued fighting over making any kind of hostage deal.

Syria -

I don’t note much in this lately as the key news is associated with Israel and the Gaza war spinoff. Much is just a continuation of the following

- Assad forces continue to attack Idlib region, anti assad forces counter attack
- Turkey attacks Kurds and anyone who gets in their way
- Anti-Assad and pro assad forces attack Turks
- ISIS attacks everyone
- US/Collation forces hit Iranian proxy militias and ISIS.

And in this mess well over 0ne million Syrians have been killed and dozens of cities have been leveled.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Turkey –

(FO) Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced at the NATO summit that he would veto any NATO cooperation or partnership with Israel until peace in Palestine was restored. He also said he intends to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a China-run security and economic bloc. Russian Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said Turkey’s membership in NATO creates a conflict of interest with the SCO’s founding documents and would delay the full accession.

OBSERVATION - Edrogan continues to bounce all over the geopolitical sphere. For some dumb reason the US continues to store nuclear warheads in that country.

Trying to catch my breath at the events yesterday in Pennsylvania.

Some components of today’s post reflect that.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

NOTE- I’m placing the Trump assassination attempt info here, as we came within an inch of a potential breakout of a hot CW2 yesterday.

Summary -

20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks from PA took 5-8 shots at Trump yesterday using an AR style rifle at a campaign rally in PA. At least one round hit Trumps upper right ear and there may have been a second that nicked it. If Trump hadn’t turned his head at the last moment, the bullet would have hit the back part of his skull - killing him instantly.

One spectator in the stands behind Trump was hit in the head and killed, a second reportedly has serious injuries. Republican Congressman Ronnie Jackson told the BBC that his nephew was injured in the shooting. He sustained a minor wound to his neck and was treated at the scene, Mr Jackson said in a statement.

Video’s show Trump looking to his right, then a surprised expression as he reaches for his ear before dropping to the deck and within seconds covered by Secret Service personnel. He was quickly escorted to a waiting SUV and taken to a hospital for examination and later released.

Crooks managed to get to an unguarded roof off the event site, but within 150 yards of the event platform. It has been reported that at least two events goers saw Crooks climbing to the roof with rifle and brought that to the attention of law enforcement / Secret Service, who reportedly did nothing. One witness - Greg - told the BBC that he had spotted a suspicious-looking person “bear crawling” on the roof of the building about five minutes after Trump took to the stage. He said he pointed the person out to police.
“He had a rifle, we could clearly see him with a rifle,” he said. “We’re pointing at him, the police are down there running around on the ground – we’re like ‘hey man there’s a guy on the roof with a rifle’ and the police did not know what was going on.”

Counter-snipers eliminated Crooks with a head shot but after he had managed to get 5-8 shots off.

Very little is known about Crooks. Reports indicate that state voter records show that Crooks was a registered Republican. He is also reported to have donated $15 to ActBlue, a political action committee that raises money for left-leaning and Democratic politicians in 2021. Social media accounts were quickly shut down preventing further open investigation at this time.

Historically, when the press is silent about the background of an individual who’s done a crime like this, the info is detrimental to the left / democrats , and is kept under wraps until much of the initial storm has passed.

OBSERVATION - I’ve warned that this possibility over the better part of the last year. Yesterday my fears became a reality. To say we averted a civil war by an inch is not hyperbole. There are elements on the right that have been on a hair trigger since the start of the election cycle, with anger building as the democrats waged lawfare and violated Trump’s constitutional rights. Had Crooks been successful, the last bit of restraint would have been broken for some.

Trump constantly recognizes the sacrifices and efforts of law enforcement. However, yesterday he was let down - bigly. Secret Service had one job – to protect America’s presidents, both current and former – and in that they failed spectacularly yesterday.

Three key points on the break down of his security.

1 The roof that Crooks shot from was completely unguarded, even though it was easy to see it provided an excellent line of fire to the event stage. Those with a background in security like were shocked that this failure occurred.

2 No action was taken by law enforcement / Secret Service when attendees saw Crooks climbing to the roof with a rifle and reported it.

3 The counter sniper team appears to have frozen for a period, either not seeing Crooks or uncertain to fire. Video shows that they finally fired the moment Trump’s ear was hit and he responded - after 5 - 8 rounds were fired at Trump.

These three points have generated a wide range of responses. First being the result of gross incompetence by his Secret Service security lead of not catching the vulnerability the off site roof provided

Worst case scenario was that this was a deliberate action by someone(s) on his security detail to allow Crooks to get into position, shoot a number of rounds in the hopes of killing Trump and then killing Crooks to keep him silent. Unfortunately this last possibility has legs. Remember back to his Presidency, a SS agent (female) openly said she wouldn’t give her life for Trump. The current head of the SS was formerly a security chief “guarding Cheetos” (quoting Elon Musk) and not an agent raised up thru the ranks. Her whole effort has been to DEI the SS at the expense of the most qualified. There may well be SS agents in Trumps detail that are so against him that that essential hatred would be the catalyst of such a lethal attempt to take him out. Is the SS compromised?

This is a very deep level of concerning conspiracy theory. Yet it is entirely plausible given the lawlessness of the intelligence community and FBI in their illegal actions against Trump since before he was elected the first time, right thru to the current lawfare. Is the infection from the Swamp that profuse that they would take the next step to prevent a second Trump presidency from happening - now going to trying to kill him? Well, 50+ associates of the clinton’s have ‘killed themselves’, Epstine was ‘killed himself in jail, the 0bama’s cook mysteriously died paddle boarding . . . The list is almost endless.

The path forward is relative clear - security at Trump events will be ginormous, to likely include bullet proof glass around the podium when he speaks and more law enforcement, making a repeat very difficult though not impossible. If this was a conspiracy and not a ‘lone wolf’ attack, the heightened sensitivity is going to force the effort to ‘get Trump’ both more underground and any future attempt more closely connected to his security. I see no reason that a second attempt would not be tried - given that the level of desperation by the left will have grown to even more heights.

If the FBI / Secret Service keep Crooks political leanings and reasonings for the attack quiet, the suspicion of an inside job clearly grows. To preserve the process, total transparency is necessary - to include the security people who either inadvertently or deliberately failed to secure the roof.

Finally, the left was all over social media with commentary essential complaining about the poor aim of the shooter and how they must do better next time. Keep an eye on them and their ilk.

We now understand the stakes. They aren’t going to stop with lawfare. They will kill all of us if they can. Understand the moment and what we are up against.

We are living in even more dangerous times. The left has crossed the Rubicon and red lines of civility.

J D Vance on “X”
“The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs.
That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination. “

Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

Andrew Takhistov, 18, of East Brunswick, NJ, was charged with one count of soliciting another individual to engage in criminal conduct that involved destroying a Public Service Enterprise Group (PSE&G) circuit breaker and substation.
Takhistov was arrested on July 10, appeared Thursday in Newark federal court, and was detained.

OBSERVATION - He was in contact with Russian agents as well as law enforcement acting as a fake contact. This would be a lone wolf kind of event.

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

News swamped with the attempt on Trump’s life - See cw2 above.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden said this week that he is going to wipe out everyone’s medical debts. “I’m going to end medical debt. We’ve already made sure medical debt can’t be put on your credit report. We can wipe out medical debt for pennies on the dollar.”

China –

Taiwan’s defense ministry said on Saturday it was monitoring “waves” of missile tests taking place in China’s far northern region of Inner Mongolia and that its air defense forces were on alert.

The ministry said that from 4 a.m. local time it had detected “multiple waves of test launches” by China’s Rocket Force in Inner Mongolia, which lies some 1,200 miles from Taiwan.

In August 2022, China fired missiles into the waters around Taiwan during war games to express anger at a visit to Taipei by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/taiwan-alert-china/2024/07/13/id/1172372/

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 90s with some 100s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Explosions were reported in Dnipro city, from probable Russian missile.

Outlook —

My outlook today is at a pause given the attempted Trump assassination. But the general action in the war are at the same levels as yesterday - the meat grinder of Russian forces continue.

Belarus -

Belarusian dictator Lukashenko has ordered the withdrawal of his troops from the Ukrainian borders to their permanent bases, according to Russian media. He claims this move is to reduce tension and follows the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces.

Poland –

Poland’s Parliament votes overwhelmingly in favor of a new law that allows soldiers, border guards and police officers to fire live ammunition when stopping attempts by migrants to storm the border.
401 MPs voted for the new law, 17 against

ISRAEL –

July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

In response to the launch of two drones from Syria at Israel’s southernmost city of Eilat early Saturday, the IDF says it struck facilities belonging to the Syrian Army overnight. The two Shahed drones were shot down by Israeli fighter jets and the Iron Dome air defense system just north of Eilat. No injuries were caused. The IDF says it struck a central Syrian Army command center, additional infrastructure, and air defenses in response to the drone attack. No group claimed responsibility for the launch of the drones, though the IDF says it views the Syrian regime responsible for any attacks from its territory.

The Syrian Ministry of Defense claimed one “military martyr” was killed and three injured by the Israeli strike.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security orces arrested 30 Palestinians in various areas of the West Bank during the past two days

——— FORECAST ————————-

Much news out of Israel is swamped under the Trump assassination attempt.
However, from what Ive reviewed the current pace of fighting has continued.